By Chris Schad -
Over the past three seasons, the Minnesota Wild haven’t been what Bill Guerin has wanted them to be.
Guerin told Jared Spurgeon three years ago that it was “all about winning.” That team set a franchise record with 113 points but blew a 2-1 series lead and lost in six games to the St. Louis Blues in the playoffs.
The following year, the Wild entered their Grit Era. With rugged defense and tremendous goaltending, the Wild’s toughness would propel them through April. A late-season push helped Minnesota reach the playoffs with 103 points, and they took another 2-1 lead over the Dallas Stars before losing in six games.
After another playoff failure, Guerin ran things back with the subtle addition of Pat Maroon. The three-time Stanley Cup champion was supposed to add even more mental toughness to the locker room. However, they traded Maroon at the deadline, and the Wild missed the playoffs.
But after three years of the Wild contradicting themselves, they have started with an 8-1-2 record and are on pace for 134 points, a 47-point difference from last year’s 87-point campaign. While some may be waiting for the shoe to drop, there are signs to suggest that it’s not a mirage and that Guerin has finally built the Wild into his kind of team.
The process began once last season ended. With disappointment permeating the Wild locker room, Ryan Hartman admitted they weren’t hard to play against. Marcus Foligno likened himself to a rusty truck needing a tuneup. Jared Spurgeon was coming off back and hip surgeries, and many players were tied down with four-year contracts complete with moving clauses.
To some, running it back was a forgone conclusion, especially in the final year of significant penalties for the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts. While the Wild needed offense, they didn’t have the salary to acquire Patrik Laine, and their decisions to sign Yakov Trenin to a four-year free-agent deal and trade for grinder Jakub Lauko felt like Guerin was trying to build the All-Meme team.
But unbeknownst to many fans, Minnesota was working on their back end – an area that had doomed the Wild one year ago.
Filip Gustavsson had a strong first season with the Wild and was set to be a definitive No. 1 goaltender when he entered last season. Still, injuries sapped his effectiveness, causing him to dip below the 50th percentile in every category except for mid-range save percentage, according to NHL Edge.
Gustavsson also needed to clean up off-ice things. Wild head coach John Hynes suggested to reporters last May that the 26-year-old had “a clear plan in place for him.” The Star Tribune’s Sarah McClellan pointed out that the team said fitness was a key to his game, and getting in the “best shape” for training camp was just as important to refining his mental approach.
The plan has worked for Gustavsson in the first 11 games as he ranks above the 75th percentile in every category except for mid-range save percentage and is currently on track for the Vezina-quality season some believed he could have a year ago.
While Gustavsson deserves credit, he also owes the players in front of him a case of Mich Golden Light. James Mirtle of The Athletic noted that the Wild ranked second in expected goals against after Sunday’s win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, and it doesn’t seem like they're a group that’s certain to regress soon.
Faber has taken the leap many thought he would, ranking fifth in the NHL in ice time with 25:28 per game. The return of Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin, who was limited to just 62 games due to injuries last season, has also helped. It has allowed Faber to play on the second line next to Jake Middleton.
Having two effective defensive pairings has lessened the load on the third pairing, which is usually Zach Bogosian and either Jon Merrill or Declan Chisholm. That has led to the Wild’s back end being tougher than rest stop toilet paper.
Don’t believe it? Compare Sunday’s win over the Maple Leafs to both games against Toronto from last season. While they haven’t completely eliminated the chances, the Wild effectively pushed more shots to the side, making life easier for Gustavsson. (All graphics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.)
Other aspects have contributed to the Wild's early success, including Kirill Kaprizov leading the league in points and Matt Boldy’s fast start. Still, the defense is leading the way.
Even with the Wild still being a top-heavy offensive team with the league’s highest shooting percentage at 13 percent, a strong defense can allow them to add a piece at the deadline or allow Guerin to add offense next offseason as part of “The Plan” to re-sign Kaprizov and convince other free agents to come here.
Guerin has had this vision for a long time but never had the players to execute it. Right now, he has that team on the ice, and it could lead the Wild to get closer to their gritty championship aspirations.
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