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  • The Wild Are Finally Bill Guerin's Kind of Team


    Image courtesy of Brace Hemmelgarn-Imagn Images
    Chris Schad

    Over the past three seasons, the Minnesota Wild haven’t been what Bill Guerin has wanted them to be.

    Guerin told Jared Spurgeon three years ago that it was “all about winning.” That team set a franchise record with 113 points but blew a 2-1 series lead and lost in six games to the St. Louis Blues in the playoffs.

    The following year, the Wild entered their Grit Era. With rugged defense and tremendous goaltending, the Wild’s toughness would propel them through April. A late-season push helped Minnesota reach the playoffs with 103 points, and they took another 2-1 lead over the Dallas Stars before losing in six games.

    After another playoff failure, Guerin ran things back with the subtle addition of Pat Maroon. The three-time Stanley Cup champion was supposed to add even more mental toughness to the locker room. However, they traded Maroon at the deadline, and the Wild missed the playoffs.

    But after three years of the Wild contradicting themselves, they have started with an 8-1-2 record and are on pace for 134 points, a 47-point difference from last year’s 87-point campaign. While some may be waiting for the shoe to drop, there are signs to suggest that it’s not a mirage and that Guerin has finally built the Wild into his kind of team.

    The process began once last season ended. With disappointment permeating the Wild locker room, Ryan Hartman admitted they weren’t hard to play against. Marcus Foligno likened himself to a rusty truck needing a tuneup. Jared Spurgeon was coming off back and hip surgeries, and many players were tied down with four-year contracts complete with moving clauses.

    To some, running it back was a forgone conclusion, especially in the final year of significant penalties for the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts. While the Wild needed offense, they didn’t have the salary to acquire Patrik Laine, and their decisions to sign Yakov Trenin to a four-year free-agent deal and trade for grinder Jakub Lauko felt like Guerin was trying to build the All-Meme team.

    But unbeknownst to many fans, Minnesota was working on their back end – an area that had doomed the Wild one year ago.

    Filip Gustavsson had a strong first season with the Wild and was set to be a definitive No. 1 goaltender when he entered last season. Still, injuries sapped his effectiveness, causing him to dip below the 50th percentile in every category except for mid-range save percentage, according to NHL Edge.

    Screenshot 2024-11-05 at 1.53.02 PM.png
    Gustavsson also needed to clean up off-ice things. Wild head coach John Hynes suggested to reporters last May that the 26-year-old had “a clear plan in place for him.” The Star Tribune’s Sarah McClellan pointed out that the team said fitness was a key to his game, and getting in the “best shape” for training camp was just as important to refining his mental approach.

    The plan has worked for Gustavsson in the first 11 games as he ranks above the 75th percentile in every category except for mid-range save percentage and is currently on track for the Vezina-quality season some believed he could have a year ago.

    Screenshot 2024-11-05 at 1.59.19 PM.png

    While Gustavsson deserves credit, he also owes the players in front of him a case of Mich Golden Light. James Mirtle of The Athletic noted that the Wild ranked second in expected goals against after Sunday’s win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, and it doesn’t seem like they're a group that’s certain to regress soon.

    Faber has taken the leap many thought he would, ranking fifth in the NHL in ice time with 25:28 per game. The return of Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin, who was limited to just 62 games due to injuries last season, has also helped. It has allowed Faber to play on the second line next to Jake Middleton.

    Having two effective defensive pairings has lessened the load on the third pairing, which is usually Zach Bogosian and either Jon Merrill or Declan Chisholm. That has led to the Wild’s back end being tougher than rest stop toilet paper.

    Don’t believe it? Compare Sunday’s win over the Maple Leafs to both games against Toronto from last season. While they haven’t completely eliminated the chances, the Wild effectively pushed more shots to the side, making life easier for Gustavsson. (All graphics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.)

    Screenshot 2024-11-05 at 2.44.21 PM.png

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    Other aspects have contributed to the Wild's early success, including Kirill Kaprizov leading the league in points and Matt Boldy’s fast start. Still, the defense is leading the way.

    Even with the Wild still being a top-heavy offensive team with the league’s highest shooting percentage at 13 percent, a strong defense can allow them to add a piece at the deadline or allow Guerin to add offense next offseason as part of “The Plan” to re-sign Kaprizov and convince other free agents to come here.

    Guerin has had this vision for a long time but never had the players to execute it. Right now, he has that team on the ice, and it could lead the Wild to get closer to their gritty championship aspirations.

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    The thing about the Wild has been limiting shot chances at goaltenders, and shooting efficiency, rather than quantity.  It didn't work out very well last night, but for about half a game, the Kings were just falling over themselves and the Wild were staying in the offensive zone at almost the entire stretch.  This seems to be a team that is built on making the right plays, keeping things simple, and not "beating themselves."  On 5 on 5, they have all the lines to make teams pay.  Kap and Ek's lines score, Hartman's line stops the other team from getting open looks, and Khusnutdinov's line is faster and more capable than they get credit for.  It's a great 5 on 5 setup.  The defense has also been great at pushing aside chances or clearing pucks from Gus and Fleury.  

    I say that, because the issues crop up when they aren't 5 on 5.  LA finally got a penalty, after the Wild failed MANY chances to get one.  The PP seems tentative, and any team with an aggressive PK style just eats them alive.  The PK also takes this prevention approach and at 62.5%, it just isn't fucking working.  They brought in Trenin and Lauko, and that is working great at even strength.  But something is lost in translation.  Hynes has the players playing super smart and avoiding a lot of penalties.  But there's something either in personnel or coaching that seems like the team just cannot get a fucking stop to save their lives.  So, that's an easy goal a game they give up that they shouldn't...lo and behold, they lost.

    Stay on 5 on 5 and score a shit ton...cause I don't trust this team to score or stop anyone otherwise.

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    15 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    Milne has been called up to St. Paul!!!

    #milnewatch

    Interesting that Milne is coming up instead of Ohgren. Let's see you shine Mikey!!

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    1 hour ago, Enforceror said:

    Interesting that Milne is coming up instead of Ohgren. Let's see you shine Mikey!!

    I think Ogzy made it clear to everyone that he's not ready for NHL TOI.  I hope he tears us the A (not what it sounds like) and comes back at end of season for final 5-10 games as reward.

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    Trading for Martin Necas like many of us wanted last offseason would sure be making the team better and providing secondary scoring.  Affordable contract and he is dominating right now.  Rossi, Gus, some pics and prospects for him sure would have been nice.  But of course our great GM wanted to run it back with grinders that have no offensive ability.  We are going to need more to compete against the best teams in the west.  We are far from that team right now.  

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    Necas wasn't coming here because there was no way in hell Carolina would do that trade, and getting rid of Gus would have looked pretty stupid knowing how he bounced back.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    Necas was available.  And would have came here if we made an offer they liked.  Sorry but if you trade Rossi, Gus and some pics or prospects for him I do that all day and that’s what it would have taken.  Even with Gus bounce back as I don’t think that will be longer term and we should be selling high on Gus, Rossi, Spurgeon.  This team still needs more changes to become better.

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    3 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

    Necas was available.

    Necas wasn't as available as you think. He was available for the right price which is kind of how we saw Rossi ( I think). While projecting Goose to have a bounce back year was easy for us, I don't think it was for Carolina. Carolina has made goalie deals in the past that have always come back and haunted them. 

    I think it might have taken a #1 to grab Necas + players Carolina liked. They've got Jarvis and are a smaller team. Why would they want Rossi? League wide, Rossi is seen as a smaller player. Do they have much interest in Spurgeon? Coming off 2 major surgeries, probably not. 

    Don't get me wrong MNHF, I love Necas. I'd love to have him here. Carolina is built to win now. Obtaining Necas for us would be to win now. Keeping Rossi who's on an ELC still is important. I'm not sure we could just throw out The Wall either as our #1 just yet. Honestly, I don't think we were a very good trade match. Carolina also has a very nice farm squad (you wouldn't know it since they lost their A affiliate). They've also got several prospects in the K.

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    Last night's game was a real bummer. You know those times where things are just off? That seemed like last night's game. Players were either early or late getting to their spots, the puck didn't cooperate and seemed to play keep away. Shots weren't getting through. The Wild might have been out structured. The Kings played a boring game and pounced on good puck opportunities. 

    Those games happen. 

    But that wasn't what I noticed. After 2 games of playing in the '78s, going back to the normal Wild homes was just a visual let down. The '78s have pazazz, they have style, they are flashy, and they look far superior. The normal homes look drab, dated, and pretty boring. I believe this is a real issue.

    Flashy looking uni's encourage flashy looking plays. They just give you a little more pep in the step. The regular home jerseys, well, they just don't inspire an offensive attack, they really say pack it in defensively. 

    I love marketing and studying what other companies do. I like to watch commercials looking at their content. This much I can say: The Wild need a marketing face lift. This is exactly the same as a store doing renovations, gas stations redoing their lighting and pump faces. These are constants within business, yet we are still stuck with these low event uniforms that scream bottom 3rd of the league. They're not classic. They're not particularly pleasing to look at. They have no wow factor. 

    We've got an outstanding player in Kaprizov and a budding superstar in Boldy. You know what gets them noticed by everyone: The '78s (or the '80s which is my particular favorite). But let's face it, The Wild are not an original 6 team with a classic look. They're half way through their 3rd decade. They've got a lot of their past that needs erasing as far as perception goes. Change the visual look! Even the referees will notice a difference.

    I believe that the kelly green and yellow is part of the state's hockey heritage, but I'm not exclusively married to the colors. I'm open to something else if the NHL won't allow them to go this route full time. It's time though to retire these guys and bring out a new look. Honestly, the '78s make the ice look brighter. That may be the most inexpensive renovation the X has ever done. The product looks far fresher in those uni's.

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    11 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Necas wasn't as available as you think. He was available for the right price which is kind of how we saw Rossi ( I think). While projecting Goose to have a bounce back year was easy for us, I don't think it was for Carolina. Carolina has made goalie deals in the past that have always come back and haunted them. 

    I think it might have taken a #1 to grab Necas + players Carolina liked. They've got Jarvis and are a smaller team. Why would they want Rossi? League wide, Rossi is seen as a smaller player. Do they have much interest in Spurgeon? Coming off 2 major surgeries, probably not. 

    Don't get me wrong MNHF, I love Necas. I'd love to have him here. Carolina is built to win now. Obtaining Necas for us would be to win now. Keeping Rossi who's on an ELC still is important. I'm not sure we could just throw out The Wall either as our #1 just yet. Honestly, I don't think we were a very good trade match. Carolina also has a very nice farm squad (you wouldn't know it since they lost their A affiliate). They've also got several prospects in the K.

    Agree hard to know what they wanted but if they wanted Rossi, Gus and 2025 1st or a prospect like Ohgren I would have done that. Rossi will be coming off his ELC so have to consider that.  We needed a fast RH player to center line 1 or 2 and play oveckins office on the PP and Necas fit all those needs.  It’s takes stones to be a good GM and this team needs some changes and upgrades to compete with the best in the west.  That’s just my opinion.  That’s why I feel Rossi, Gus, Spurgeon, Nojo, Hartman, etc should all be available this year. This is not our year but we need to build for it like Vegas does.  No attachments to guys this is a business.  Once again this is just my opinion and know it will ruffle some feathers but looking at building a cup team and we need more. 

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    22 minutes ago, Sam said:

    Does that mean someone is injured?

    From the looks of things, I'm guessing they were playing a few games with 21 on the roster. They play 3/4 on the road and need that extra forward. I believe that's the reason, and he may draw in against the Ducks.

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    2 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

    We needed a fast RH player to center line 1 or 2 and play oveckins office on the PP and Necas fit all those needs.

    I've been pounding this drum for a long time now. I've also recommended going after Necas. He'd be a major get. But we'd have to give up what they wanted. I'm not sure we have that. Prospects are not Carolina's problem. Their problem is size and having 1 more scoring forward. In fact, they've got 1 more than we do already. They're also deep at center, though a #2 could be what they're looking for.

    What would you have said if they countered with "well, how about Eriksson Ek?" I think this is how far apart we were.

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    3 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I've been pounding this drum for a long time now. I've also recommended going after Necas. He'd be a major get. But we'd have to give up what they wanted. I'm not sure we have that. Prospects are not Carolina's problem. Their problem is size and having 1 more scoring forward. In fact, they've got 1 more than we do already. They're also deep at center, though a #2 could be what they're looking for.

    What would you have said if they countered with "well, how about Eriksson Ek?" I think this is how far apart we were.

    I wouldn’t have done Erickson Ek but I would have done Boldy for Necas straight up.  That’s how much in think we need that RH guy in that spot and a center.  I still think Carolina would consider this plus a pick and/or prospect. Then we trade Rossi and Gus and Spurgeon and build what we need.  

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    Any play that gets rid of Boldy or Ek is an ixnay from me.  Rossi may or may not be #1C scoring wise, but he's still near a PPG and always seems to be around "clutch scoring plays" this season.  Worse yet, you'd try to shore up a position of relative strength now while punching a hole in RW.  Boldy is pretty much the only guy you have.  Zuccarello is still 36, no matter how many fucking times he seems to prove he's ageless.  We've seen Ohgren isn't the answer yet.  Much less replacing the cornerstone player (Ek) with an unknown.  Ek makes even less money than Necas does now...still fucking crazy to me.

    You're gonna tell me you're going to punch a hole on both sides of the wings or give up the best overall center just to fill something that seems to be pretty good already?  That's pretty damn risky.

    Besides, no one player, Necas or otherwise, changes the fact the problem isn't 5 on 5 right now: it's being on special teams.  Till they figure that out, you could put freaking McDavid on this team and they'd still be given up extra goals they shouldn't be doing.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    important time for wild - is it the turning point where we slide in the standing?  or just a road bump? 8-2-2 is not too shabby but still some concerns -

    Worry

    • Gus - has been a bit shaky and makes me wonder if he is regressing to who he was before....last four games is uninspiring 87%.....
    • Defense - yeah we can all be excited for Midds being our a PPG D but that is really not going to last and shouldn't. Merrill, Bogo and Chissy are still there and Spurge .... no matter how much he puts in, he will still get exposed on D playoff time (if he survives to that point)
    • Trenin - yuck
    • PP / PK 💩
    • Second line scoring - not counting Boldy OT winner - have they scored anything lately? Has MJ scored in the last 10 games? And we can't even boot him from the team cause reality he is the ONLY one that can get into O zone on PP. the ONLY one. i suppose put him on 1PP unit and remove someone. 
    • Rossi - how many turnovers has he had? how many bad penalties? how many penalties have cost us games? if Kap get's all the attention - can Rossi take advantage or push a line on his own? It's all looking like a NO. Note - Sell High on the shrimp. 
    • Ohgren - another touted prospect (who was supposed to slide in nicely in top 6) is back where he (sadly) belongs - AHL

    Not Worry 

    • I called Kap top 5 in the league and many disagreed. Well i think he is closer to top 3 now after McD and MacK. So lesson learned to all who doubted papa - listen to ODC more!
    • 15 mil is the floor now for Kap. Maybe his GF dumps him for taking a puck in the mouth and he meets a lovely girl from Anoka and falls in love. And stays. Yeap. 
    • MAF - that smile
    • Marat and Lauko - i like em, but they play with Trenin. 

    Predictions

    • These next four gams are easy peasy and are very very very crucial, so let's see what you got Wild. I think they go 2-2. Then get whooped by Dallas
    • Guerin panics and brings in Kessel to save the day .... on a two - year deal but just imagine instead of Trenin we get a line of Kessel Marat and Lauko

    image.png.912cf6d57c20428e94c6cc4a390fcaa4.png

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    1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

    Guerin panics and brings in Kessel to save the day .... on a two - year deal but just imagine instead of Trenin we get a line of Kessel Marat and Lauko

    Hot Dogs+ Grape Knuts line. But, Kessel can probably bury a puck or two after the speed demons take it in!

    What we need now is to simply keep banking wins. So what if Dallas blows us out, throw MAF in net and take aggressions out. Dallas is a perfect scenario for an absolute meltdown where we all celebrate '80s night. 2 lines/team are ejected setting a penalty minutes record for the cap era. Referees come out the following Tuesday from filling out all their paperwork and sitting through the NHL scrutiny of every call they made and didn't make causing the game to get out of hand.

    Maybe that would be the game where MAF can finally get in his goalie fight!

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    2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Any play that gets rid of Boldy or Ek is an ixnay from me.

    This is my thought to, but I was playing Canes advocate and what if that's their ask? FYI, while Necas is listed as a C, he's been playing wing for Carolina for years and is not very good in the dot. 

    I saw him play in the A many years ago. In fact, I was looking at some other players, and this guy caught my eye. I was wondering who he was? Fastest guy on the ice, and Tuch was playing for the baby Wild.

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    13 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Hot Dogs+ Grape Knuts line. But, Kessel can probably bury a puck or two after the speed demons take it in!

    What we need now is to simply keep banking wins. So what if Dallas blows us out, throw MAF in net and take aggressions out. Dallas is a perfect scenario for an absolute meltdown where we all celebrate '80s night. 2 lines/team are ejected setting a penalty minutes record for the cap era. Referees come out the following Tuesday from filling out all their paperwork and sitting through the NHL scrutiny of every call they made and didn't make causing the game to get out of hand.

    Maybe that would be the game where MAF can finally get in his goalie fight!

    i'm in for a rumble against Dallas but first let's sweep the 4 games preceding them 

    then let's go  and make mccarty proud

    image.png.dab7730b63248575ddbd1e10a57a738f.png

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    3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    This is my thought to, but I was playing Canes advocate and what if that's their ask? FYI, while Necas is listed as a C, he's been playing wing for Carolina for years and is not very good in the dot. 

    I saw him play in the A many years ago. In fact, I was looking at some other players, and this guy caught my eye. I was wondering who he was? Fastest guy on the ice, and Tuch was playing for the baby Wild.

    Necas has been playing center recently. I recorded their game last night and he played center and took all their draws when out there.  He was dominant and controlled the play whenever on the ice.  I would trade boldy and Rossi or Gus if they wanted him and another prospect if we could get him.  He is special and would make us much better!

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    The Wild should be going after Trent Frederic. He's expiring and only 2.3M currently but his 23-24 forty point season will mean he's getting a raise. Could the Wild trade for him? Plenty of teams are interested. He's a big center. Personally, I would prefer him with Ek over Rossi or Knudi who are smaller less punishing players. 

    You have to assume the price will be high and Boston would want a NHL-level replacement type guy going back. Would MN be able to make a deal to get bigger, more powerful at center? Would trading Rossi and a future 2nd be enough. Hartman could fit into Rossi's spot but it would be hilarious to put Frederic on a line with Kirill since he bullied the Wild and #97 before. Frederic is the affordable version of a Tkachuk MN has been wanting to find. Playoff experience and could score nearly as many points as the current Rossi numbers. Size and style for the playoffs, NA kid...

    Just thinking out loud since for Boston it's looking ugly at the moment.

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