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The Marco Rossi Discourse has officially detached itself from reality. We just saw the Florida Panthers build a dynasty on a foundation rehabilitating former top-10 picks that were unhappy, coming off a down year, or both. Sam Reinhart (No. 2 overall in 2014), Seth Jones (No. 4 in 2013), Sam Bennett (No. 4 in 2014), and Matthew Tkachuk (No. 6 in 2016). They made bets -- sometimes massive bets -- on top talent and hoped their organization would figure it out. This is a copycat league, as they say. Yet, as the Minnesota Wild's top-six center is coming off a career-high 60-point season at the age of 23, no one seems to want him particularly badly. Least of all, as much as GM Bill Guerin has tried to downplay it, the historically center-starved Wild, who've been rumored to be looking at trading him for the last two summers. Or three, since he might be on the move this week. Whether trying to low-ball Guerin on a player he doesn't seem particularly committed to, similarly worried about his size, or scared off by the fact that the Wild demoted and kept him on the fourth line in the playoffs, teams aren't biting. The Vancouver Canucks are believed to have only offered the 15th overall pick in tonight's draft for him. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Sabres apparently turned down an offer of Marco Rossi and "another roster player and/or prospects and picks" for JJ Peterka, according to The Athletic's Michael Russo. Instead, Buffalo flipped Peterka for 25-year-old Michael Kesselring and 23-year-old Josh Doan. Combined, the two players have a career 4.9 Standings Points Above Replacement in 218 games, per Evolving-Hockey. That's just barely more than Rossi had over 82 games last season (4.4 SPAR). We don't specifically know what was offered alongside Rossi, of course, and Kesselring being a right-shot defenseman does fill a need. Still... what are we doing here? We're living in Bizarro World when it comes to Rossi. The Athletic's Shayna Goldman, one of the brightest minds in hockey analysis, wrote about the apprehensions teams may have for Rossi: Issue number two revolves around whether Rossi can drive his own line or is just a passenger to Kirill Kaprizov. ... These two do mesh well together. In 407 five-on-five minutes together this year, the Wild earned a 57 percent expected goal rate and outscored opponents 24-16. Rossi was still above break-even in expected and actual goals without Kaprizov, but wasn’t as in control. No one on earth is going to suggest that Kaprizov isn't the primary driving force on any line he's on. Kaprizov carries the puck and can do dynamic things with it as a playmaker or shooter. We've seen Kaprizov elevate Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Matt Boldy. It's ludicrous to say that Rossi isn't benefiting from Kaprizov when the two are on the ice together. Still, that doesn't mean that Rossi can't drive play in his own right. We have a growing amount of evidence that he does drive play. 407 minutes with Kaprizov at 5-on-5 means that Rossi played 815 minutes without Kaprizov. During that time, Rossi still managed to out-score opponents 32-27 (54% goal share) with a 52.8% expected goal share. That includes a long stretch of the season when Kaprizov was injured -- and remember, this was not a good team without Kaprizov. From Christmas until Kaprizov's permanent return on April 9, the Wild were 29th in goal share (43.5%) and 25th in expected goal share (47.5%). During that time, Rossi was above-water in goal share (54.6%) and expected goal share (51.2%). Among Wild forwards, only Ryan Hartman and the heavily sheltered Vinnie Hinostroza could claim to be above water in both categories. Rossi's season wasn't a product of playing with a superstar. He consistently made other players better, almost to a person. When you examine what players did with and without Rossi, it's impossible not to notice a pattern. Minnesota Wild Forwards, 2024-25 With and Without Rossi at 5-on-5 Mats Zuccarello Time On Ice With vs WO: 651 / 407 GF% With vs WO: 56.2 / 41.0 xGF% With vs WO: 52.7 / 44.1 Matt Boldy TOI With vs WO: 559 / 695 GF% With vs WO: 57.2 / 48.4 xGF% With vs WO: 52.0 / 53.7 Kirill Kaprizov TOI With vs WO: 408 / 317 GF% With vs WO: 60.4 / 57.6 xGF% With vs WO: 57.4 / 52.7 Marcus Johansson TOI With vs WO: 191 / 831 GF% With vs WO: 62.4 / 42.6 xGF% With vs WO: 57.5 / 46.6 Marcus Foligno TOI With vs WO: 185 / 755 GF% With vs WO: 57.5 / 53.1 xGF% With vs WO: 63.7 / 54.6 Ryan Hartman TOI With vs WO: 159 / 745 GF% With vs WO: 60.1 / 47.6 xGF% With vs WO: 55.4 / 50.8 That's everyone who played 100-plus 5-on-5 minutes with Rossi last year. The only player who didn't see a bump in both their actual and expected goal share was Boldy, who finished only slightly higher in xGF% without Rossi at center. It's a difficult pattern to deny. It makes sense, then, that Goldman's article included this graphic, which shows just how strong Rossi's game is at both ends of the ice: And again, it feels like we're in Bizarro World. How can the Wild doubt his play and the results to this degree? Why are they stubbornly refusing to pay more than $5 million AAV for a player who's asking for $7 million and whose market value is over $8 million? There's a bargain to be had for seven or eight years! Take it! How is this hard?! Now it seems like Guerin has not only Galaxy Brained himself on this, but the NHL might be, too. Teams may be waiting for July 1 to snipe Rossi with an offer sheet that Minnesota would be unwilling to match. Still, if a team like Buffalo is passing on Rossi and more in a trade, then maybe the lack of trade interest is real. We'll find out in the coming days. Whatever the resolution, though, this has been an incredibly bizarre series of events for Rossi. Any other center at his age -- with his production, work ethic, and character -- would never hit the market. And if they did, teams would be lining up to improve their center depth with a talented, goal-scoring, point-producing center. Here we are, though, with Rossi on the market and teams saying "Pass." It'd be one thing if Rossi hadn't proven he could hang at the position. But he has! Yet, from what we know today, it's done almost nothing for his stock, inside and outside the organization. We're going past this situation being an irrational farce and heading to the point where we completely break with reality. Whoever is first to come to their senses is going to get a hell of a player on a great deal, and the State of Hockey should be hoping it's Guerin.

The NHL's salary cap is on the rise, but the league's economy might be about to grind to a halt. There's a flow to player movement. There are usually a group of teams looking to reset their competitive window, and a team of buyers looking to fuel them with futures for the price of taking the sellers' good players off their hands. But unless a team is interested in the Pittsburgh Penguins and their slightly used Rickard Rakell or Bryan Rust, that might not happen this offseason. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic recently quoted a GM as saying, "Almost everyone is looking to add or get better." That's bad news for the Minnesota Wild, for whom the buyout shackles are finally off their wrist and are ready to make a splash. In a world where the Buffalo Sabres were looking to trade Tage Thompson, the Detroit Red Wings were shopping Dylan Larkin, or Brady Tkachuk was trying to find a way to leave the Ottawa Senators, the Wild might have been able to do that. But in a world where even last-place teams like the Chicago Blackhawks or San Jose Sharks are done trying to bottom out? The road for the Wild to improve gets a lot rockier. Or does it? "I don't want to sit on my hands at all, and I'm kind of tired of doing that," Bill Guerin said in May, In March, he said, "[July is] going to be a time where organizationally, we make a step." However, Minnesota might be in as good a position as anyone to improve without a huge shake-up. The Wild only punched their ticket to the playoffs in the last 20 seconds of the season, when Joel Eriksson Ek scored a game-tying goal against a dreadful Anaheim Ducks team to clinch their spot. While that suggests the Wild are a bubble playoff team, the truth is that with a reasonably healthy year from Kirill Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek, Minnesota would have been an easy playoff team. Yes, even with "one hand tied behind their back," as Guerin occasionally says of their cap situation. The Wild are (currently) set to return most of that team from last season, and are already making three major additions, without spending a dime in free agency. Top prospects Zeev Buium, Danila Yurov, and David Jiříček are all expected to be on the roster next year. You can probably add in a fourth by penciling in Liam Öhgren in the lineup. That's the 12th overall pick from last year's draft, plus three top-25 picks from the 2022 Draft. Playoff teams usually aren't in a position to add four highly-touted first-rounders in a single offseason. That's reserved for young, up-and-coming teams after years of painful rebuilding. However, the Wild are in exactly that spot. Of course, it's important to temper expectations a bit. We don't know which players are ready to step into huge roles and which require more time. But even two of those four being ready for prime time next season would make a significant impact. Even beyond the injuries and the prospects, the Wild still have room to improve next year. Their young core currently includes Matt Boldy (24), Marco Rossi (23), and Brock Faber (22). All three players have room to improve next season. The State of Hockey is still waiting for that elusive Boldy breakout season, even though he is coming off a career-high 73-point campaign. Still, the organization and its fans believe there's more meat on that bone. His final 20 games (including playoffs) suggest that, as he scored 11 goals and 24 points over that time. If his 2025-26 season can resemble the first and last 20 games of last year, and not the middle 48, we could see something truly special. Rossi put together a second-straight 20-goal season while managing to take his playmaking up a notch as the Wild's top-line center. The trade rumors surrounding him have been on full blast this offseason, but a combination of a thin center market and Minnesota's not-so-stellar job of selling him could keep him in Minnesota. If Rossi is back in St. Paul, he'll be motivated to either prove to the Wild he's part of their future or put on a show to audition for another spot. His work ethic to get better next season can't be questioned. Then there's Faber, whose disastrous second half plummeted him to the fourth-worst season in the NHL, per Evolving-Hockey's Standings Points Above Replacement. Faber cost the Wild 3.3 points in the standings last season. Still, no one believes that it represents his true talent level. With a smarter plan to keep his workload in check, Faber should look much better as a top-pairing defenseman. Sure, it might be preferable to see the Wild add a bona-fide No. 1 center, if you're not sold on Rossi. But with reasonable health, a wave of prospects arriving, and their young stars continuing their upward trajectory, they might not need a huge shake-up. Suppose Minnesota can limit itself to adding a top-six winger around the edges. Then, it would complement a promising core without ripping out any of the foundation of what the organization is building. As loath as Guerin is to sit on his hands, it might be the best way to set up the Wild to win in the near term.

In the endless, three-year-long debate about Marco Rossi's value, the biggest argument of his critics is simple: He's another Mikael Granlund. It's not a particularly fair critique for either player. Rossi has been more productive than Granlund at a similar age while sticking at center. Meanwhile, Granlund has played 902 NHL games and has five 60-point seasons under his belt. That's a hell of a player. Still, the parallels between the two players make it easy for Wild fans to put them in the same box. Granlund and Rossi were drafted in the exact same spot (ninth overall), ten years apart. Minnesota drafted both of them as undersized centers with a lot of hype. They each had false starts in the NHL before adjusting and coming into their own with the Wild. Granlund played 461 games with the Wild, racking up 317 points, which still puts him in the top-10 in franchise history. Since leaving Minnesota in the Kevin Fiala trade, Granlund has pivoted back to center, spending stints with the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks before catching on with the Dallas Stars for their playoff run. Once in Dallas, he apparently impressed the organization enough that the Stars wanted to keep him around, even though he ultimately signed with the Anaheim Ducks. Granlund signed a three-year, $21 million deal with Anaheim. The $7 million AAV is a match to what Rossi is believed to be asking for in his RFA negotiations with the Wild. So while it's easy to argue otherwise, let's accept the premise: Rossi is the next Mikael Granlund. OK, then. The debate's over. We know how much that's worth, and the price tag is $7 million AAV. A seven-year deal would take Rossi through his age 24 to 30 seasons, using Hockey-Reference's cutoffs. During that same age range, Granlund averaged 18 goals and 57 points per 82 games. If that's Rossi's exact career trajectory, then we should be able to expect him to be around a 60-point center over that time. That was the case for Granlund over his last contract (four years, $5M AAV); he averaged 61 points per 82 games during that time. He got $7 million. The market spoke! Sure, they're different circumstances. Granlund was a UFA, while Rossi's rights are restricted. He can sign with another team, but the Wild have the right of first refusal for the contract and have vowed to match any offer sheet. Teams could get into a bidding war for Granlund's services, while they have to be much more strategic if they wish to pursue Rossi. Still, even so, we have another Granlund contract that helps us spitball his value -- his three-year RFA deal signed in 2017. At age 24, Granlund broke out after a shift from center to wing. He blew past his career highs of 13 goals and 44 points en route to a 26-goal, 69-point season. Again, you can draw the parallels between the two players if you like. Granlund increased his career-high by 25 points in a contract year, while Rossi moved his up by 20 last season. Like Guerin has with Rossi today, Chuck Fletcher seemed to have his doubts about going long-term with Granlund after his breakout season. While Fletcher handed out five- and six-year deals for Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle, and Jonas Brodin, he opted for a shorter-term contract with Granlund, signing a three-year, $5.85 million AAV deal. It was a "prove-it" deal of sorts, giving Granlund the ability to show he could play at a high level before hitting UFA status. It also came in at a hefty rate, accounting for 7.67% of the salary cap when it took effect. A 60-point season from a young player was highly valued then, and it remains highly valued now, even if the player doesn't have a long history of achieving that mark. Applying that same percentage to Rossi's cap hit for the upcoming season gives us something in the $7.3 million range. Again, if Rossi is simply the next Granlund... that's what Granlund was worth at a similar stage in their career and trajectory. The Wild have their line with Rossi, but it doesn't appear to be one that's aligned with the market or reality. The highest reported AAV from Minnesota in a contract offer is $5 million, which matches what Ryan McLeod signed as an RFA this offseason, who put up fewer goals and points than Rossi despite being two years older. Come on. It's obvious where this writer stands RE: Rossi's value. A full-time center with strong two-way numbers and 60 points at 23 is a much better asset than Granlund was at any stage of his career. But fine, if you want to insist that they're the same player -- skilled, undersized forwards whose slighter frame puts a ceiling on them -- then, once again, we know what that's worth today. If Rossi is indeed the next Mikael Granlund, then pay him Granlund money. This shouldn't be that difficult!

Before diving into Vladimir Tarasenko's game, it must be said up top: There's no such thing as a bad one-year deal. The Minnesota Wild acquired Tarasenko from the Detroit Red Wings on Monday in a cap dump trade where they gave up nothing. In a league where few teams are actually against the salary cap, the "Get a player for nothing" market is rapidly dying. Still, Minnesota managed to do just that for a team that had $15 million of wiggle room heading into free agency. For this, they'll get a former six-time 30-goal scorer for one year, $4.75 million. Granted, the days of Tarasenko being one of the most feared scorers in the NHL are behind him. Still, we're gonna see way dumber contracts dished out once free agency opens tomorrow. It's a nifty bit of work by Bill Guerin and his front office. But making a good-looking move in the summer is one thing. Now Tarasenko has to actually play, and his presence puts Minnesota in a spot where they don't have to make a move to acquire a scoring winger tomorrow... at least on paper. Long term, this is good news for Minnesota. Brock Boeser would be intriguing on a three- or four-year deal. Six or seven years would probably be asking for trouble. The Wild are in a position where they can either let a Boeser deal come to them or turn down an unfavorable deal, knowing Tarasenko sets a certain floor. But, where is that floor? Last year, Tarasenko scored just 11 goals and 33 points for the Red Wings. His skating took a dive last year, and he's always relied on his shot. That's usually not a recipe for aging super well, and given that Tarasenko is 33, that's kind of a red flag. Still, Tarasenko is just one year removed from scoring 23 goals and 55 points for the Ottawa Senators and Florida Panthers. The run in Florida is especially encouraging. He played 43 games (regular season and playoffs), scoring 11 goals and 23 points with bottom-six minutes. That's not bad. Neither is winning a Stanley Cup. The Wild aren't the Panthers, though, and Tarasenko isn't starting the season in the bottom-six. Minnesota seems to have him penciled into the second line, and that's likely going to come with about 16 to 17 minutes per night. The last two teams that had him in that role had an 81-point season (2022-23 St. Louis Blues) and a 78-point season (2023-24 Ottawa). That's got to be a concern. Not that playing Tarasenko under 15 minutes a night helped the 86-point Red Wings too much last season. So, let's look into why Tarasenko flopped in Detroit and how the Wild might be able to avoid a similar fate. At first blush, it seems like Tarasenko had an awkward fit with his linemates, playing about half the season with J.T. Compher and Jonatan Berggren. Both players have some skill, but they didn't complement Tarasenko's abilities at this stage of his career. Neither Compher nor Berggren is a terrific puck-carriers, per Corey Sznajder's All Three Zones tracking project. While Tarasenko used to be strong in the role in his St. Louis days, he's no longer able to be that go-to zone entry guy. No clean zone entries means few attempts on the rush, which has generally been where Tarasenko has been productive throughout the years. When he put up 52 points two seasons ago, he had entry wizard Tim Stützle riding shotgun with him in Ottawa, and Sasha Barkov carrying in pucks in Florida. The bad news is, the only elite puck-carriers the Wild have are Kirill Kaprizov and Marcus Johansson. There's only one Kaprizov, and a big reason the Wild are trading for Tarasenko in the first place is to keep Johansson firmly in the bottom-six. If Tarasenko is on the second line, either Marco Rossi is going to have to embrace a puck-carrying role that he deferred to Kaprizov last season, or Matt Boldy is going to have to get a touch better at entering the zone cleanly. If the Wild can find someone to serve as Tarasenko's caddy and set-up man, he can still do some damage in the offensive zone. Even with the Red Wings last year, All Three Zones had him as above-average in both generating and facilitating scoring chances. That's something the Wild badly need, because they had few dual-threat players last season. The card for Tarasenko partially obscures Ryan Hartman (who was above-average at both, but skewed towards Scoring Chance Assists) and Kaprizov (average at Scoring Chances, elite at Scoring Chance Assists). Besides those two, only Boldy, Rossi, and Vinnie Hinostroza were average or better at both aspects of offense for Minnesota last season. That hints at Tarasenko having use on the second line, but that won't be the ideal outcome for Minnesota. At least, not by the end of the year. Tarasenko hasn't been a stout defender for about a decade, and his defensive game has cratered over the past four years. He might still have some offense left in him, but he'll give some on the back end, particularly if he's out and ready to be exploited for 16 minutes a night. The ideal situation is that Tarasenko eventually settles into the lineup on a scoring third line. Perhaps even a fourth-line that gets sheltered minutes in the offensive zone to maximize opportunities at 5-on-5. So Tarasenko might not be a great addition as a second-line solution, but that's not his value to the Wild. What Tarasenko does is buy Minnesota time. If Öhgren and Yurov aren't ready for a second-line role to begin the season, the Wild don't have to force it. They can get their feet wet on the third line, and hopefully be ready to swap places with Tarasenko by January or so. And if their prospects aren't ready to make that jump, Minnesota can turn to the trade market at the deadline. Unlike now, there will be teams who are resigned to finishing in the basement around March. Even if top-tier players aren't available, the Wild can be in on some pending UFA forward to give them a boost heading into the playoffs. That's a lot better than backing up a Brinks truck for Boeser and hoping he can be their big fish solution for the next seven seasons. Tarasenko might not give the Wild a long-term solution, but he represents a floor that the Wild's second line isn't going beneath, no matter what. Even if he can only thrive in a depth role at his age, Tarasenko is more than worth having around at his price, for his term, and for the low, low cost of nothing via trade.