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We wrote about Kirill Kaprizov's incredible start on Thursday. Still, when a player goes out and drops a three-point night to extend their multi-point game streak to seven... what else can you do but marvel about him all over again? Kaprizov is refusing to slow down, adding two goals and an assist in the Minnesota Wild's 5-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning. The effort bumped Kaprizov back into the NHL lead in points (21), extended his multi-point game streak to seven, and gave Minnesota their sixth win in the past seven games. We have to add an addendum to Thursday's piece concerning Kaprizov's start: "Dolla Bill Kirill" is tied with Leon Draisaitl (2021-22) and Thomas Vanek (2013-14) for the fourth-most points through 10 games in the Salary Cap Era. Only Draisaitl and Connor McDavid have had more. Look further down the list, and you'll see titans of the game like Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby looking up at Kaprizov. That boggles the mind, and Kaprizov's hot start registers as incredible, even for someone who has spent years watching Malkin and Crosby night in and night out. "I think it just proves how good he is, how special he is," Bill Guerin marveled to Hockey Wilderness following Kaprizov's three-point outing. "You don't just do that by accident, either. You see good players get off to strong starts and things like that, but... 10 games, that's a good-sized segment. So have that, not just consistency, but high-level and produce like that is amazing." No one could ever accuse Kaprizov of flying under the radar. People have considered him among the NHL's most dynamic wingers since entering the league. Still, he seems to be garnering a new level of attention league-wide this season. Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman pinpointed him as a Hart Trophy contender two weeks ago. The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille recently floated a trial balloon take that Kaprizov may have surpassed last season's Hart runner-up Nikita Kucherov as the league's best winger. And why not? It shouldn't be lost on anyone that Kaprizov's two-goal, one-assist game on Friday is an identical stat line to his October 24 showing at Tampa Bay. In head-to-heads, Kaprizov has a 6-2 point advantage over his countryman Kucherov. If we want to keep comparing the two superstar Russians, we can point out that Kaprizov's seventh-straight multi-point game matches Kucherov's career-high streak. The two are tied for the fourth-longest such streak of the Salary Cap Era. Stamkos, McDavid, and Vincent Lecavalier are the only players who can claim a longer one... and if Kaprizov extends his to eight games on Sunday night, that list of players goes down to one. Kaprizov's six power-play points tied him for seventh in the NHL, and he's been even better at 5-on-5 play. His 12 points at 5-on-5 sit on top of the NHL (along with Sam Reinhart), and it's gone a long way to his 14-4 scoring advantage over his opponents when he's on the ice. Only Reinhart is enjoying a higher 5-on-5 goal differential than Kaprizov's plus-10. At this point, what else can you say? Wild fans are watching the best player in franchise history at the height of his powers, and he's putting the rest of the hockey world on notice. It's been a treat to watch, and while 10 games is a good chunk of the season, we've got a lot of time left for Kaprizov to amaze us even more.

The Minnesota Wild's most controversial offseason move wasn't a free agent signing, a trade, or a draft pick. Even if the Wild had the resources to make such a splash, a move like the rumored Patrik Laine trade may still have taken a backseat to a simple lineup card change. John Hynes almost rode his top line of Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Matt Boldy to the playoffs. Playing 375 minutes -- almost all down the stretch -- these three out-scored opponents by a 30 to 18 margin. That plus-12 goal differential was tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs' Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner - Matthew Knies line and the Vancouver Canucks' Brock Boeser - J.T. Miller - Pius Suter line for the ninth-best mark in the NHL. That line was such a cheat code that it seemed unthinkable to break it up, even for lineup balance. But Hynes did, moving Eriksson Ek and Boldy to their own line, then ultimately placing 2020 first-rounder Marco Rossi in the top spot between Kaprizov and winger Mats Zuccarello. On one hand, Rossi was a highly-touted prospect the Wild likely drafted to handle this exact role. On the other hand, the Wild never seemed to warm up to him fully. Even though he scored 21 goals as a rookie, they didn't seem to see Rossi's ceiling as a top-line center. He had a big opportunity to keep proving his worth. Rossi might be soft-spoken, but his first five games have made a huge statement. His five points have him tied with Zuccarello for third on the team, behind only Kaprizov (eight) and Boldy (six). All five of his points have come at 5-on-5, where he sits in sole possession of the team lead. Rossi entered Sunday tied for the eighth-most 5-on-5 points in the NHL. There are only two other centers ahead of him: the Vegas Golden Knights' Jack Eichel and the Florida Panthers' Sam Reinhart -- and Reinhart only plays the pivot part-time. The secret to Rossi's success? It's more of the same stuff that led to his breakout last year -- and mirrors what led to Eriksson Ek's rise as a goal-scoring presence in the NHL. He can go to the net, find the soft spots in the defense, and good things happen. Look at his shot map (courtesy of Evolving-Hockey), and you'll find that nine of his 12 shot attempts at 5-on-5 have come within 20 feet of the net. Six of them have come within 11 feet or fewer. However you want to measure it, Rossi is getting high-quality chances at 5-on-5 unlike anyone else on the team and few in the NHL. Natural Stat Trick has him tied for tenth in the NHL with nine high-danger shot attempts at 5-on-5, which matches totals from Eichel, Nikita Kucherov, and Mikko Rantanen. Evolving-Hockey has him in the team lead with 1.90 expected goals in all situations, not just 5-on-5. That's more than Kaprizov and Boldy, despite getting fewer minutes and half the power play time. That's impressive, but so is Rossi's performance as a cohesive member of the top line. So far, the trio has out-scored opponents by a 5-to-1 margin at 5-on-5, and while scoring 83% of the goals or so won't continue, their controlling 58.6% of the expected goals share should keep them firmly in the positive. They're also carrying over their success from last season when they out-scored opponents 19 to 13 at 5-on-5. Add that all up, and this top line is up 24 to 14 -- a 63.2% of the goal share that actually (and slightly) bests the Kaprizov - Eriksson Ek - Boldy line from last season (62.5%). You aren't likely to see Rossi do the Holy Nordy, did you see that?! kind of plays that Kaprizov and Boldy make, at least not yet. But he's so good at doing small things to keep plays alive, whether it's his positioning, winning board battles, or making a heads-up play to keep the puck in the offensive zone. Watch Rossi's goal against St. Louis, only don't pay attention to the end of the play. Look at everything he does before Kaprizov puts the puck on his stick. He pressures Colton Parayko and forces him to dump the puck along the boards to Nick Leddy, who promptly turns it over to Kaprizov. It takes Rossi no time to change directions and get into a shooting position, which he stays in. He hangs in a soft spot nine feet from the net, where he's untouched. Elite hockey sense is going to get you a lot of goals that look almost effortless. In some senses, this is five games, a small sample size. At the same time, the Wild drafted Rossi to be a scoring center, and he had that pedigree at juniors and the AHL. He had success with this line last season, and it's unsurprising if he made a major leap in the offseason, considering the tremendous growth he showed after the summer of 2023. We may be watching a legit Top-Line Center taking his final form right before our eyes.

In hockey, you often ride the hot hand. Great chemistry between players is rarely the result of struggling and then finding a breakthrough. Usually, you have it or you don't, and once you have it, coaches are loathe to give it up. So it's a bit eyebrow-raising that on Sunday, John Hynes broke up his productive top line for the second consecutive game, swapping center Marco Rossi onto a lower line. In isolation, neither change should have stood out. Hynes flipped Rossi with fourth-line center Marat Khusnutdinov for a few shifts at the tail end of the second period in Friday's game at the Anaheim Ducks. Coaches send players, especially young ones, messages all the time. It happens. Rossi responded with a goal and assist in the third period; the Wild won, and everyone seemed to move on. Even on Sunday, the Wild needed a goal to tie and loaded up their top line with Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek. You can't blame a coach for doing that, especially when it netted them the goal that forced overtime. But after Sunday's game, The Athletic's Michael Russo wrote about Hynes' dissatisfaction with Rossi's consistency. "[Hynes] knows Rossi's getting points but feels like his game's been up and down. For instance, after taking three penalties in a four-game stretch, Hynes thought Rossi was good in San Jose. But in Anaheim, Hynes felt Rossi needed to be harder on plays and manage the puck better." Rossi's 23, and his game is still developing, so learning moments will happen. Ideally, Hynes sends his message, and the extremely driven center works to clean up those mistakes and continues his terrific start to the season. But also... hopefully, Rossi's leash doesn't stay this short because his season has been extremely consistent. The top line of Kaprizov, Rossi, and Mats Zuccarello has outscored opponents by a 12-6 margin at 5-on-5 this season. Looking at Rossi himself, he's only been outscored at 5-on-5 in three of their 15 games and got the better of the expected goals share in 10 of 15 games. Say what you want, but that feels pretty consistent. Then there's the offensive output, arguably more consistent than any other forward on the team not named "Kaprizov." Rossi entered Tuesday with 12 even-strength points (tied for 13th in the NHL) and 4.51 individual expected goals (tied for 11th). Looking at the game logs, we can see how steadily he's generated chances night after night. Here's the number of his individual xG for each game and how they ranked among Wild forwards on that night: Game 1: 0.09 (6th) Game 2: 0.48 (2nd) Game 3: 0.26 (3rd) Game 4: 0.29 (3rd) Game 5: 0.73 (1st) Game 6: 0.08 (6th) Game 7: 0.07 (3rd) Game 8: 0.07 (6th) Game 9: 0.27 (2nd) Game 10: 0.69 (1st) Game 11: 0.18 (5th) Game 12: 0.02 (4th) Game 13: 0.57 (1st) Game 14: 0.50 (1st) Game 15: 0.22 (3rd) In bold is every game where Rossi had at least 0.20 expected goals at even-strength and finished the night in the top three among Wild forwards. That number is nine of 15 games. Compare that to, say, Boldy, who has had just five such games in 15 efforts, and we can get a good sense of how consistent Rossi has been. Now, points aren't everything, and neither are scoring chances. But on a team tied for 27th with 2.25 expected goals per hour at 5-on-5, you've got to take the offense you can get, even if those offensive players are prone to an extra mistake or lapse. Rossi's play should earn him the same benefit of the doubt that gets extended to less impactful players (whom I'm sure you can name in the comments). To be fair, there's a balancing act in this -- how much do you prioritize imparting a lesson during a player's growing pains versus not throwing out prospects with the Zamboni water -- and to his credit, Hynes hasn't made any missteps yet. But it can be tricky, and Hynes needs to navigate these waters carefully to enhance the growth in his budding center's game without derailing his (or the top line's) success.

You can't take October away from the Minnesota Wild. John Hynes emphasized the need for a fast start for his team after coming onto the job mid-season once the Wild stumbled to a 5-10-4 record. As Banner from "Arrested Development" once infamously read... Nine games into the season, the Wild have a 6-1-2 record. They have as many points in the standings (14) as they had through 19 games under Dean Evason last year. Those points are in the bank, and if we're using the playoff cutoff from last year (98), Minnesota is already 14% of the way to the playoffs with about 90% of the season to go. But this is a sports team in Minnesota; it's the land of 10,000 Shoes To Drop. If you're a pessimist, there's no shortage of red flags for this Wild team. It might surprise you that the Wild's opponents are outshooting them at 5-on-5 this season (200 to 201). In terms of overall shot attempts, Minnesota's also well below 50% (392 to 445) and is only barely on top in terms of expected goals (16.0 to 14.5). You can get out-shot, out-attempted, and even out-chanced and still make the playoffs. The Washington Capitals did it last year, and their numbers were worse than Minnesota's. But it's tough. You need killer special teams, some mojo that doesn't run out in the regular season, or, preferably, both. And even then, your luck tends to run out come playoff time. The Wild have both things on their side right now. They've got a top-10 power play, the fifth-highest shooting percentage at 5-on-5 (11.5%), and the fourth-highest save percentage (93.5%). That works out to a PDO (shooting plus save percentages) of 105.0, the third-highest in the NHL. Teams at the extreme ends of the PDO spectrum tend to regress to the league average of 100. So what happens when things start to break the other way? The Wild might have the classic red flags of a team that will regress, but there's reason to think it might not be so bad. As always, we're dealing with some small sample sizes that produce weird results in the early part of the season. In this case, events have conspired to make Minnesota's underlying numbers look worse. Remember, the Wild went their first six games without trailing. They've trailed for only 45 minutes and 50 seconds this season, the lowest amount in the league. Only the Vegas Golden Knights have spent more time in the lead. This is where score effects come in. Teams in the lead tend to hang back and settle for defending, while the trailing team pushes to create more offense. Over a full season, when most teams spend about 1000 minutes or more leading and trailing, these effects tend to make only a minor impact. But when we're talking, say... nine games, for example... these score effects can skew things significantly. We're seeing that with the Wild right now. Let's take a look at what the Wild's 5-on-5 possession numbers are before and after adjusting for score effects, which Evolving-Hockey helpfully does: Corsi For Percentage: Unadjusted: 46.8% (25th in NHL) Adjusted: 50.2% (21st) Shots For Percentage: Unadjusted: 49.9% (18th) Adjusted: 52.6% (9th) Expected Goals Percentage: Unadjusted: 50.8% (13th) Adjusted: 53.1 (9th) Once those score effects are accounted for, Minnesota looks much more solid. The Wild pop over 50.2% at controlling shot attempts. However, they have built a reputation for dominating shot quality for over a decade. Once we account for score effects, they're doing it again, and that's very good news for the State of Hockey. Last season, nine of the top-10 teams in (score-adjusted) Expected Goals Percentage at 5-on-5 made the playoffs. Over the last 10 full 82-game seasons, 85 of the 100 teams in the top-10 of Expected Goals Percentage made the playoffs. Better yet, they've done it while missing six games from Jared Spurgeon, their best 5-on-5 player last year (57.8% xGF%). Having Spurgeon back and healthy raises the ceiling for their season. These reasons and the points the Wild have already banked are why Evolving-Hockey projects them to have a 79.9% chance of making the playoffs. There will be times when the shooting goes cold, the goaltending gets a bit leaky, and the power play slumps. Still, Minnesota (when healthy) has enough going for it to believe that it will make the playoffs.

If you're looking for one piece of 20-year-old pop culture to describe the Minnesota Wild's start to the season, it's easily Michael Scott looking stone serious into the camera and declaring, "No question about it, I am ready to get hurt again." It's October 23, just six games into the season, but you can unironically look at this team and go, The Wild are a wagon. It's not even just you buying in on this. The media is in on them. The players are in on themselves. And, frankly, until they spend a second trailing on the scoreboard, why shouldn't they be? You can point to several reasons for the Wild's strong start. Their top two lines are out-scoring opponents at an 11-to-1 clip at 5-on-5 through six games. Minnesota's power play is just that: powerful, converting at a 33.3% clip that's fourth in the NHL. But the biggest reason is the guy between the pipes: Filip Gustavsson. The "Gus Bus" is traveling at a pace not seen since 1994, and he's not just kept Minnesota in games but has allowed them to win comfortably. Five starts in, and the 26-year-old goaltender still hasn't surrendered three or more goals in a game. His last four starts have seen him hold his opponents to one goal during regulation. We know a small sample size when we see one here at Hockey Wilderness, and yes, of course, these are small sample shenanigans. There are no .950 goalies in the NHL, and definitely not in recent years, where the league save percentage has dropped below .900. Still, it makes you wonder: Is the Gus Bus back? Can the Wild trust him to lead this team back to the postseason after being perhaps the biggest reason they missed last year? Five games isn't enough to determine that, but what about 85? That's the number of starts that Gustavsson has in a Wild uniform, and in those two-plus seasons, the Swedish netminder has put up some of the best numbers in the NHL. Here are the top-10 goalies (minimum 2000 minutes) in save percentage at that time: Linus Ullmark, .927 Connor Hellebuyck, .921 Jeremy Swayman, .917 Ilya Sorokin, .917 FILIP GUSTAVSSON, .917 Igor Shesterkin, .915 Joey Daccord, .914 Jake Oettinger, .914 Semyon Varlamov, .913 Juuse Saros, .912 That's good company. Really good company. The problem is that Gustavsson's numbers have oscillated between extremes. A .931 save percentage in 2022-23 is doing some heavy lifting for him, and his save percentage from last season drags him down. Hockey coaches value consistency, and Gustavsson's season-long slump devalues an otherwise top-10 goalie performance from the past several years. So it's not surprising to see Gustavsson on a heater early in the season. He's done it before, for longer. Until he proves he can be consistent, the question will always be whether he can limit the damage when things start going wrong. That was a huge problem last season. He was prone to bad showings and meltdowns, where Gustavsson lost his composure and control of the game. We can find several examples of this. Against the Toronto Maple Leafs on October 14, he surrendered three goals in 2 minutes, 20 seconds in the third period of a game where Minnesota lost 6-4. The Wild had to overcome a 3-0 first-period deficit on November 4 against the New York Rangers after he allowed three goals in the game's first seven minutes. They dropped two crucial divisional games to the Nashville Predators, with the game turning on a brief but impactful Gustavsson meltdown. On January 25, the Predators erased a 1-0 lead heading into the third period with two goals in 35 seconds. The Wild lost 3-2. How do you top that? By allowing two goals in eight seconds on February 29, which turned a one-goal lead in the first period to the spark for a 6-1 blowout. We're not seeing that this year, even in moments where Wild fans held their breath, waiting for things to unravel. In the St. Louis Blues game, Mathieu Joseph broke the scoring open with under 10 minutes left to make it 3-1. Minnesota turned the puck over a little over a minute later, and St. Louis took a 3-on-2 back Gustavsson's way. Robert Thomas, who had 26 goals and 86 points last season, shot the puck -- but Gustavsson deflected it. Crisis averted. He put out the fire. A similar dynamic happened in his second win against the Columbus Blue Jackets. He lost the shutout with 85 seconds left to make the game 3-1, but when Kirill Marchenko took the Jackets' last shot with 36 seconds to go, Gustavsson limited the damage. Last night in Florida, Sam Bennett got on the board in the middle of the second period, but Gustavsson shut the door completely in Minnesota's 5-1 win. As is often the case with the Wild, you have to give credit to their defense. They're allowing 1.8 expected goals per hour at 5-on-5, blocking shots, and making life much easier for Gustavsson. Then again, the Wild were the best team in hockey at suppressing expected goals last season, and look what that did for the Gus Bus, then. We can get caught up in recency bias, and just as easy as it was for the 2023-24 season to sour Wild fans on Gustavsson, this hot start could easily be coloring our feelings about him now. And even if the defense keeps being this stingy, and Gustavsson stays locked in, he won't be close to a .952 goalie at the end of the season. Still, it looks like he's figured out how to stop the bleeding when things go wrong, and his overall career save percentage is far from anything to sneeze at. You (and the Wild) can absolutely get hurt again, but it feels like it's time to go all-in on the Gus Bus.