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  • Why Mason Shaw's Injury Was A Bigger Blow Than Wild Could Have Imagined


    Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
    Justin Wiggins

     

    Who would have thought the Minnesota Wild’s playoff hopes would have been so affected by the loss of a fourth-line winger?

    When grinder Mason Shaw tore the ACL in his right knee earlier this month, there was plenty of disappointment for the fan favorite who had already overcome so much. It was the fourth ACL tear of his career, and one had to wonder how much longer his body can take the beating of an NHL life.

    But over the subsequent days, fans naturally turned the page towards the upcoming playoffs and how the Wild could somehow, some way, advance past the first round for the first time in nearly a decade.

    Until the injury bug struck again.

    On April 6, just a few days following Shaw’s injury, Joel Eriksson Ek took an Evgeni Malkin shot off the leg, and it was unlikely he would be available when the postseason began. The news at the time was perhaps even more devastating than that of losing Shaw. Eriksson Ek was the Wild’s best center. He pivoted the top power play unit and was often first over the boards in shorthanded situations.

    His 61 points this season were by far the highest total of his career, and his name was at least mentioned in the Selke Trophy conversation. He played a key role in centering the suddenly-dangerous second-line with Matt Boldy and Marcus Johansson. How on Earth were the Wild going to contain the Dallas Stars without such a key player?

    Well, through five games, maybe Eriksson Ek isn’t the Wild’s biggest missing piece. You could argue not having Shaw in the lineup is having a larger impact on this series than even their Swedish center being out.

    Hold on now, hear me out: This isn’t to say Shaw is a better, more impactful player than Eriksson Ek. Not by a mile. However, Shaw does one thing extraordinarily well, and it’s where the Wild need the most help right now.

    There’s no need to beat around the bush here: it’s the penalty kill. We all know it. For the second consecutive postseason, the Wild’s inability to keep the puck out of their own net while down a man is sinking their chances. Naturally, many want to point to head coach Dean Evason and his inability to produce a capable penalty kill for two playoff runs (or perhaps, duds?) in a row. Next in line is chalking it up to losing Eriksson Ek, indisputably their best center and defensive forward, at the exact wrong time.

    But the biggest impact hasn’t been coaching, and it hasn’t been getting just 19 seconds out of Eriksson Ek. No, their penalty kill took the biggest hit when the shorthanded savant that is Mason Shaw departed the lineup.

    In the regular season, Connor Dewar was the only Wild player who recorded better goals against rates on the penalty kill than Shaw (minimum 50 minutes). Shaw's 4.41 GA/60 finished in the top-20 in the NHL among qualifying forwards. He wasn’t just one of the Wild’s best penalty killers, but among the best in the entire NHL.

    Furthermore, his GA/60 was nearly half of Eriksson Ek’s 8.18 in the regular season. That's not to say Eriksson Ek isn’t a great defensive forward. But his elite 5-on-5 impact hasn’t necessarily carried over to the penalty kill in his career.

    In his rookie season, Eriksson Ek recorded a 4.45 GA/60 on the kill, but since then he has never been below 7.3. And in the last three seasons, he has averaged 9.16 GA/60 on the kill. Sure, a lot goes into play with stats like GA/60, like teammates and goaltending. But over that sort of sample size, it begins to paint a fairly clear picture. Eriksson Ek just isn’t as good defensively at 4-on-5 play as he is at even strength.

    And this isn’t an outlier. There are other instances of a player’s style being better suited for even strength than on the penalty kill, where there is so much more ice to cover and defend. His former Selke-finalist teammate, Mikko Koivu, was very similar in that he was an all-time great defensive forward at 5-on-5, but bad on the penalty kill. While his No. 9 may hang in the rafters of the Xcel Energy Center forever, he averaged a very mediocre 7.31 over the 13 seasons that we have data for.

    None of this is to discredit Eriksson Ek or his former teammate. Who knows? At the end of his career, his No. 14 may hang alongside the No. 9.

    But when you look at what the Wild miss most this series, it’s the duo of Shaw and Dewar being first over the boards on the penalty kill. How many times have the Dallas Stars scored within the first half minute of a powerplay this series? The answer? A lot. The Wild have somehow survived at 5-on-5 without Eriksson Ek. They’ve been destroyed on the penalty kill without Shaw.

    You could be wise to question why Evason has pivoted to Frederick Gaudreau and Johansson as his top penalty killers following the loss of a few key players. You wouldn’t be wrong to assign some blame to Evason there. But maybe the simplest answer for why the Wild suddenly find themselves on the brink of elimination is they miss Shaw way more than anyone could have anticipated.

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    Can't under estimate the loss of a spark plug. Ever try driving a car with a faulty plug? Not ideal. While can still go losing a guy like Shaw, who would lay it all on the line every shift, especially penalty kill, hurts. 

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    We’ll never know, but I just can’t see Shaw flipping this series.

    They are kicking our ass on special team so badly that it goes beyond that.  He may have helped kill off one or two more, but would he be winning these draws?  What would he have done to prevent these PP goals scored within 10-20 seconds?

    There are bigger, philosophical questions going on here with special teams.  It’s not because we’re missing Shaw.  We shouldn’t let the coaches drawing these things up off the hook that easily.

    Of course, Dallas gets some credit here.  They are just flat out kicking our ass.  I’m not convinced we’d have killed off that many more with both Shaw and Ek.  When you’re cleanly losing every draw and giving them open looks at the net before the PK can even get set….I just don’t see what one individual could be doing.

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    I love watching Shaw play, a feisty lightweight who still takes the body better than Greenway could.  He and Dewar were magic on the PK, many times connecting for the shorty. However, this analysis is flawed tremendously-

    Quote

    But when you look at what the Wild miss most this series, it’s the duo of Shaw and Dewar being first over the boards on the penalty kill. How many times have the Dallas Stars scored within the first half minute of a powerplay this series? The answer? A lot. The Wild have somehow survived at 5-on-5 without Eriksson Ek. They’ve been destroyed on the penalty kill without Shaw.

    Here is the key paragraph that takes out the hypothesis. You see, Eriksson Ek and Gaudreau are the 1st pair of forwards on the kill. Their role was to kill the 1st 30 seconds, mainly by getting that 1st draw and icing the puck.  

    With the opponents PP 30-45 seconds into their shift, the quick duo of Dewar and Shaw would then come over the boards and try to provide some offense from an already lightly tired PP. They would get the next 30-45 seconds followed by the 3rd unit, leaving the Boldy centered Zuccarello-Kaprizov line to be the 1st forwards out of the PK.  

    When Shaw went out, Duhaime took his spot, and Dewar and Duhaime have looked comfortable as the 2nd pairing.  However that 1st unit, specifically without Ek has been really bad, surrendering the 4 goals in 11 seconds. 

    I'll admit Shaw was a really good PKer, but Ek is the main reason we are where we are.  And, Ek is a double killer, as he's on that 1st pairing but also the net front presence on the PP, neither of which we've been able to adequately replace.  

    Shaw's an important injury, he likely makes that 4th line better too, adding a little more skill on it, but let's be real, his 12-14 minutes are not more important than Ek's 20+ minutes missing. I'd argue that Hintz doesn't have the series he's having if a healthy Ek is in the lineup!

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    10 seconds before Shaw's injury we were playing Vegas and competing for 1st place.  I think we hadn't lost a game in regulation for a month and had just beat the Avs convincingly.  

    Shaw has that awkward turn and goes down and the team's morale goes down the drain. We lose that game and the next one to Vegas, lose Ek and that game to Pitt and we threw in the towel.

    That injury changed all fortune IMO.  Such a stupid little awkward flukey twist of fate.

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    44 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I'll admit Shaw was a really good PKer, but Ek is the main reason we are where we are.  And, Ek is a double killer, as he's on that 1st pairing but also the net front presence on the PP, neither of which we've been able to adequately replace.  

    Shaw's an important injury, he likely makes that 4th line better too, adding a little more skill on it, but let's be real, his 12-14 minutes are not more important than Ek's 20+ minutes missing. I'd argue that Hintz doesn't have the series he's having if a healthy Ek is in the lineup!

    Agreed. I like that the article is indicating that losing Shaw was kind of an under the radar loss comparatively, but losing Eriksson Ek is certainly a bigger impact.

    Shaw & Dewar being great together was undeniable, and they were highly efficient as a 2nd pairing, but I'm hesitant to say they were the best PK pairing because 2nd power play units often are much less efficient than the #1 power play units.

    Eriksson-Ek was facing the opposition's best PP and best PK units every night and having an excellent season. The team simply doesn't have a replacement, and the team's 2nd best option for the PK was also lost right before JEE.

    After such a strong string of weeks that kicked off in mid-February, seeing things fall to pieces right before the playoffs began is definitely a downer.

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    1 hour ago, Beast said:

    When you’re cleanly losing every draw and giving them open looks at the net before the PK can even get set….I just don’t see what one individual could be doing.

    Seems to me that one solution is that the PK needs to get set quicker. I'm not an Xs and Os guru, but it would seem to me that if you are always planning on getting that 1st draw, and you don't and everything goes to the trash bin, perhaps you should be planning for losing that 1st draw....clean.

    It seems like their clean draw plays pretty much are the same. Quick pass or 2, fire from the top, hope for a tip/rebound, goal. Now, how do you disrupt that?

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    43 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Shaw & Dewar being great together was undeniable, and they were highly efficient as a 2nd pairing, but I'm hesitant to say they were the best PK pairing because 2nd power play units often are much less efficient than the #1 power play units.

    I don't think you say better than the other, they were really good in their roles.  Dewar-Shaw played better not letting the PP gain the zone and get settled in, Ek-Gaudreau were better starting in the zone and then getting it out. 

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    3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I'll admit Shaw was a really good PKer, but Ek is the main reason we are where we are.  And, Ek is a double killer, as he's on that 1st pairing but also the net front presence on the PP, neither of which we've been able to adequately replace.  

    We greatly miss both those guys.  Ek is the guy that uplifts the team when everything seems to be going wrong and fights when no hope is visible.  I do like Shaw.  The guy plays with his heart and it shows.  He is fantastic on the PK.  Our lineup misses him.  No doubt the absence of those 2 guys is greatly impacting this series.  If only we had a few more dollars to afford a slightly deeper team. Hmmm.

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