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  • Why Doesn't Bill Guerin Borrow From Bill Belichick's Core Philosophy?


    Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports
    Tom Schreier

    Bill Belichick was the New England Patriots head coach and de facto general manager from 2000 to 2023. During that time, he won six Super Bowls because of his ruthless approach to roster-building. “Better to let a player go a year too early,” he figured, “than a year too late.”

    I don’t know if Bill Guerin knows Belichick or looks up to him as an executive. However, Guerin is from Worchester, Mass., 45 miles from where the Patriots play in Foxborough. Guerin was also playing for the Boston Bruins when the Pats hired Belichick in 2000. Odds are, he’s heard of the third-winningest coach in NFL history.

    Hockey isn’t football, but most modern GMs adhere to Belichick’s philosophy. Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah cut Adam Thielen, who walked onto the team after playing at D2 Minnesota State, when Thielen demanded more money than he was willing to budget for him. Similarly, Twins president Derek Falvey has taken successful one-year fliers on players like Matt Wisler and Donovan Solano, only to move on from them the following season. 

    However, Guerin has implemented the opposite philosophy. Guerin inherited Ryan Hartman, a journeyman winger who scored 18 goals in his first two seasons with Minnesota. However, Guerin extended him for three years, $5.1 million in 2021. Hartman scored 34 goals in the first year of that extension, but it was an outlier season for the former first-rounder. Hartman’s previous career high was 19 goals with the Chicago Blackhawks in his first full NHL season.

    Hartman only scored 15 goals in 59 games the following season, but Guerin awarded him with a three-year, $12 million contract last offseason. Hartman had 21 goals and 24 points last season, respectable totals for a depth wing. Still, most of his scoring has come when he’s centering the top line with Kirill Kaprizov. That sounds fine until you consider that means the Wild have a depth wing centering their top line

    While Kaprizov is elevating Hartman, Hartman is suppressing Kaprizov’s production. Winning teams pair bona fide centers with their skill players, and Kaprizov is better off playing with Joel Eriksson Ek or Marco Rossi on his line than a depth winger. 

    Overpaying a role player benefitting from a star player’s production is a cardinal sin for any front office, given that it leads to overpaying players and unnecessary budget crunch. However, it’s especially so for one that bought out Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. Parise and Suter’s $7.3 million dead cap hits are the third-highest cap hits on the team, behind Kaprizov ($9 million) and Jared Spurgeon ($7.58 million) but ahead of Matt Boldy ($7 million) and Eriksson Ek ($5.25 million). 

    Instead of spending responsibly during the cap hell he created, which often means playing cost-controlled rookies with upside, Guerin has continued filling Minnesota’s roster with bad-value contracts. In addition to signing Hartman last offseason, Guerin also inked Marcus Foligno (four years, $16 million) and Mats Zuccarello (two years, $8.25 million) to extensions. 

    “I believe in these guys,” Guerin said after signing them. “I think they are how we get better here.”

    Hartman, Foligno, and Zuccarello regressed, and so did the Wild. Minnesota had a franchise-record 113 points in 2021-22. Last year, they went from a 103-point team to finishing with 87 points and out of the playoffs. Hartman went from a 65-point player two years ago to a 45-point player last season. He also oscillated between being a glue guy and a goon. Similarly, Foligno, 32, went from playing 74 games two years ago to 65 in 2022-23 to 55 last year. He had 42 points in 2021-22 but has only produced 43 in the past two seasons combined

    Signing Zuccarello, 36, to a two-year extension is less risky despite his age. Still, most of his value was his chemistry with Kaprizov. Good GMs retain role players who bring out the best in their stars. However, Zuccarello no longer plays on Kaprizov’s line. The Wild gave each player no-move clauses, meaning they’ve locked themselves into a mediocre roster that blocks their best prospects when they would have been better off moving Hartman, Foligno, and Zuccarello at the deadline.

    It’s not just Hartman, Foligno, and Hartman. The Wild signed Freddy Gaudreau to a five-year, $10.5 million contract after scoring 19 goals in 2022-23 and 14 goals the year before. He had five goals and 15 points last season. They’ve had a sordid love affair with Marcus Johansson and bought the dip on Zach Bogosian. He recently extended Jake Middleton, 28, for four years, $17.4 million a year before his previous contract ended.

    Conversely, they played hardball in negotiations with Kaprizov and won’t sign Rossi long-term after a breakout season. Guerin kowtows to large, veteran players but didn’t sign Kaprizov to a full-length contract and may eventually push his second-best center out of town. As a result, Guerin has built a top-heavy team with middle-class bloat. He’s practically designed a team to exist on the playoff bubble in a market full of fans tired of first-round exits.

    Belichick’s fatal flaw was mismanaging Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady late in his career. He spent years asking Brady to take pay cuts so he could build a team around him, only to fail to acquire enough good receivers. Belichick chose not to re-sign Brady at the end of the 2019 season, only to watch him win the Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a year later. 

    By failing to sign Kaprizov long-term, Guerin has mimicked Belichick’s worst trait while failing to adhere to his core philosophy. He has wantonly handed out long-term extensions with no-trade clauses to aging, declining veterans and negotiated aggressively with his best players. As a result, he only has two years to build a winner around Kaprizov before he’s stuck with a flawed team with no superstar.

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    I don't see Hartman's contract as a bad one. Foligno's probably is bad because he'll get hurt due to his play style. Zucc's contract looks okay if his production doesn't fall off the table. Frauddie's contract is bad. NoJo's contract is bad.

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    Some dope online stated Kaprizov's agent might angle for a $15m AAV.  Apparently Charley Walters from the Pioneer Press said it first, but I didn't see it anywhere legit.  We saw a few weeks ago that they can sign all three bigger names to whatever money they want and make it work, even with the 'middle class bloat."  Keeping Kap, Rossi, and Faber is possible.

    That said, I wouldn't be happy with Kap making $15m.  $13m is the highest I'd go before saying, "Look, he wasn't going to stay for any reason."

    Kaprizov leaving (if he does) isn't going to be because the team decided to play 1-2 rookies per season instead of 5-6 rookies at once.  He'd leave for any number of reasons.  Overpaying any player over their station is not going to help the team, if it comes to that.

    It feels so weird being one of the few people who will fight against the writers each day, but alas.  There's ways around the issue.  It just feels like the articles are pounding the same drum, without realizing there's still ways out of the "bloat."

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    While there are some great points about locked into middle class bloat, Bill was also known for taking guys that weren't necessarily the highest touted prospects and brought out the best in them. Biggest evidence was Julian Edelman, considered small at 5'10" for a WR, drafted in the 7th round but turned into a main component for the Pats. I would argue they were a team of a lot of "middle class" players (minus GOAT Brady and other pieces that came and went). Bill was able to get the BEST out of them, as a team, and they were also known for defense that would just grind people down and be stingy (seems similar to what the wild have been known for in their history). They rarely took penalties or made mistakes, that was the standard they were held to and everyone bought in. It also helps that Tom Brady was taking much cheaper contracts than he could have had. He was never top paid in the league, usually not even to 5. That plays a big role is bringing in others as a rental too in the NFL.

    Do we know that Bill didn't try to get a longer contract or do we know it was Bill saying "nope only this many years"? Maybe Kap was playing hardball? With Rossi I don't see the issue of having another year to show his worth, to keep with the NFL theme see Matt Flynn, showed a flash for a year, signed huge, became a back up the next year by not beating out rookie R Wilson.

    In my opinion the contracts that have been signed by the vets and Wild may be more to do with salary certainty, letting the young guys develop and see if any TAKE a spot (Faber, Boldy, and now Rossi) or flame out (Beckman). Also by not forcing the young guys up immediately their contracts will be rookie deals a bit longer, possibly allowing more cap flexibility over the next couple years as contracts fall off, to sign free agents as well as pay for a Faber who has earned a big payday.

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    17 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

    Bill was able to get the BEST out of them, as a team, and they were also known for defense that would just grind people down and be stingy (seems similar to what the wild have been known for in their history).

    Exactly why I thought it was a mistake to fire Deano. The team outperformed their talent every year under him.

    18 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

    In my opinion the contracts that have been signed by the vets and Wild may be more to do with salary certainty, letting the young guys develop and see if any TAKE a spot (Faber, Boldy, and now Rossi) or flame out (Beckman). Also by not forcing the young guys up immediately their contracts will be rookie deals a bit longer, possibly allowing more cap flexibility over the next couple years as contracts fall off, to sign free agents as well as pay for a Faber who has earned a big payday.

    We were gonna compete after the buyouts were done. He has us in a situation that looks like it will be much more of the same unless a bunch of prospects go against the odds and explode in their ELC's. I'm hopeful as much as anyone that happens but it's unlikely.

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    44 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

    I don't see Hartman's contract as a bad one. Foligno's probably is bad because he'll get hurt due to his play style. Zucc's contract looks okay if his production doesn't fall off the table. Frauddie's contract is bad. NoJo's contract is bad.

    Johansson's contract is fine. He was paid $2ml and played like it. Not sure what people expect from a $2ml player.

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    7 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    Exactly why I thought it was a mistake to fire Deano. The team outperformed their talent every year under him.

    We were gonna compete after the buyouts were done. He has us in a situation that looks like it will be much more of the same unless a bunch of prospects go against the odds and explode in their ELC's. I'm hopeful as much as anyone that happens but it's unlikely.

    What exactly is Belichicks record without Brady? 

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    2 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    Exactly why I thought it was a mistake to fire Deano. The team outperformed their talent every year under him.

    We were gonna compete after the buyouts were done. He has us in a situation that looks like it will be much more of the same unless a bunch of prospects go against the odds and explode in their ELC's. I'm hopeful as much as anyone that happens but it's unlikely.

    I agree with the Deano thing, though maybe he lost the locker room, I don't know I wasn't there. I have felt unsure about the competing (assuming you mean for the cup) once the bye outs were done just because either A. We were going to have to use chunks of that money to pay prospects that flashed or B. They didn't work out and now we are not having guys who are cheap/first/bridge contract, the wild could build around.  That rule change for the cap really screwed the team over. I agree, an immediate jump up is unlikely but maybe works out better long term? Typical MN sports fan here, hoping for the best always but ready for the let down (though I will push that feeling off as long as I can.) Just curious, rewind time, how did you envision the team competing post buy outs?

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    2 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

    I agree with the Deano thing, though maybe he lost the locker room, I don't know I wasn't there. I have felt unsure about the competing (assuming you mean for the cup) once the bye outs were done just because either A. We were going to have to use chunks of that money to pay prospects that flashed or B. They didn't work out and now we are not having guys who are cheap/first/bridge contract, the wild could build around.  That rule change for the cap really screwed the team over. I agree, an immediate jump up is unlikely but maybe works out better long term? Typical MN sports fan here, hoping for the best always but ready for the let down (though I will push that feeling off as long as I can.) Just curious, rewind time, how did you envision the team competing post buy outs?

    Leo could've pushed for a grandfather clause in relation to that rule change. I believe he knew like most of us did those contracts would not age well. Kind of lost in all of that is Leo is making out like a bandit with the cap hits. He's saving that money each year.

    Guerin told us we'd be ready when the cap hits were off. In the beginning I envisioned better draft positions and therefore better quality players developing over these years. I also thought they would be gaining valuable experience in the big league, and then lastly but not leastly, have money to add skaters in areas of need next offseason. Hardly any of that happened or is going to happen.

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    12 minutes ago, Peter Lemonjello said:

    Johansson's contract is fine. He was paid $2ml and played like it. Not sure what people expect from a $2ml player.

    I agree an won't be surprised if he outperforms that contract again this year.

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    I love how there's this weird commotion about "how are they going to compete," "what's it going to take?"  Well, Kaprizov, Fiala, Boldy, and lots of players playing crazy offensive years didn't make it.  What's making anything think dumping 2-3 players and signing a Stamkos, etc. whatever was going to do it either?  There's also no guarantee that blowing the team up San Jose or Chicago style was.  That hasn't worked for New Jersey and Ottawa.  

    The team has talent.  You want a game breaking talent?  That's Kap's job.  Ek and Boldy are damn good options.  Fiala didn't win with the Wild nor LA, so he wasn't the answer.  The team needs secondary offense (which hopefully comes from Rossi, Yurov, and Heidt).  What the team needs is defensive structure and consistent goaltending.  Brodin and Spurgeon are getting older.  If Faber and Buium pan out, then that solves all but the Wallstedt thing.  There's every chance Gus splits the different from 2nd-60th and plays around 20th-30th in the league for now.  Wallstedt might be that missing piece after that.

    I understand the concerns.  Get this high offense guy, get that high offensive talent guy.  Well, last week, I posted about teams (including our fabled 03 team) that rode the defense and goaltending to success.  That's why I'm willing to be patient.  Watch what a team like Toronto does with nothing but offense...doesn't end well either.

     

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    4 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    What's making anything think dumping 2-3 players and signing a Stamkos, etc.

    For me it's all about overpaying and signing players to lengthy contracts with clauses, not about dumping players.

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    Clauses that they can probably get out of if they want to.  Some GM is always looking for stupid things to do in desperation.  Most of those NMCs move to NTCs after a year or two anyway.  The players most likely to make the team are going to make the team anyway.  The cap rising is going to offset things, just as slowly sloughing contracts will make room  The main issue is the wait for them to get here is driving people up the wall.

    Yurov didn't want to sign this year: lord knows what plans changed because of that decision.  There's no guarantee he or Heidt or Buium are even any fucking good.  But what if they are?  One more bad year of wait is hardly a problem.  The Wild decided to go for a high floor team until that happened.  Look how many fucking injuries it took to even be, "Sort of bad enough to not make the playoffs."

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    Great article! Kappy isn’t leaving because of how many prospects get played . He’s going to leave because this bozo gm couldn’t surround him with a decent roster . The Billy believers just keep making excuses for him and hyping up kids that won’t ever live up to the hype.  To read you want to get rid of kappy because he costs to much after you make excuses for Billy’s misfits is ridiculous. How many more years are they going to keep making excuses for Billy? 
        Bozo Billy should have sold the misfits at trade deadlines to get better assets in the draft . Then go get more misfits in free agency. Rinse and repeat till you get out of buyouts. Then you have better prospects, better cap flexibility and money to get free agents after buyout . Instead bozo billy kept putting uncompetitive teams on ice and embarrassing the fans for no reason . Billy believers think this is a plan ? 

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    By failing to sign Kaprizov long-term, Guerin has mimicked Belichick’s worst trait while failing to adhere to his core philosophy.

    Shit, I didn't realize that Kaprizov had left already 😞

    This seems like an article better saved for '25-'26 UFA than right now when he's, you know, under contract for another 2 years.. Besides, its not like Bill didn't keep the guys that fit his Patriot Culture around either.

    Vrabel, Bruschi, Wilfork and Rodney Harrison were all OGs that he kept around to help him install and maintain that culture with the team, you know... even when they got old..

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    51 minutes ago, Peter Lemonjello said:

    Johansson's contract is fine. He was paid $2ml and played like it. Not sure what people expect from a $2ml player.

    At least 50 points and 30 of those have to be goals....

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    If Dean is such a good coach , why doesn’t he have a job? Maybe minny fans don’t understand the value of things like the rest of the league does . Kinda like the bozo contracts we hand out aren’t given out by good teams . 

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    24 minutes ago, Dean said:

    If Dean is such a good coach , why doesn’t he have a job? Maybe minny fans don’t understand the value of things like the rest of the league does . Kinda like the bozo contracts we hand out aren’t given out by good teams . 

    Every year, EVERY year GM's make the wrong decisions on coaches. Someone along the way will realize his value. Hell, Hynes gets another shot, Deano sure oughta.

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    1 hour ago, IllicitFive said:

    Exactly why I thought it was a mistake to fire Deano.

    IMO Dean was fired after being outcoached in playoffs two years in a row.  He made no adjustments (in-game, or game to game) and just rinse/repeated what he did all season.  I think Guerin gave him a pass the first year b/c the regular season record was so good.  Then when Deano did it again the second year with the same result his seat got hot.  Then when the team shit the bed last season it was the final straw.  And the PP and PK were pretty miserable too.

    I also think that's why Deano has not landed his next job yet.

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    18 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    IMO Dean was fired after being outcoached in playoffs two years in a row.  He made no adjustments (in-game, or game to game) and just rinse/repeated what he did all season.  I think Guerin gave him a pass the first year b/c the regular season record was so good.  Then when Deano did it again the second year with the same result his seat got hot.  Then when the team shit the bed last season it was the final straw.  And the PP and PK were pretty miserable too.

    I also think that's why Deano has not landed his next job yet.

    They weren't even supposed to make the playoffs though. What adjustments? That's the 'darling' phrase but what adjustments. Easy to say harder to do especially when you're down the size of the cap hit they were down. The Blues and Stars were hands down better teams. They weren't going to win those series.

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    "By failing to sign Kaprizov long-term, Guerin has mimicked Belichick’s worst trait while failing to adhere to his core philosophy. "

    Seriously, stop with the "I know how to run an NHL team better than the guy doing it"

    Did you ever stop to think that KK wasnt signing past 5 years?

    Russo even reported that KK's agent wanted a 3 year deal so in 3 years KK would walk into FA. Billy Boy held his ground and got him signed for 5 years. Wheres the credit for that? 

    How about someone on here writing an article about the contract Billy Boy had Ek sign? or signing Hartman for $1.7ml and then putting up 34 goals? 

     

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    26 minutes ago, Peter Lemonjello said:

    "By failing to sign Kaprizov long-term, Guerin has mimicked Belichick’s worst trait while failing to adhere to his core philosophy. "

    Seriously, stop with the "I know how to run an NHL team better than the guy doing it"

    Did you ever stop to think that KK wasnt signing past 5 years?

    Russo even reported that KK's agent wanted a 3 year deal so in 3 years KK would walk into FA. Billy Boy held his ground and got him signed for 5 years. Wheres the credit for that? 

    How about someone on here writing an article about the contract Billy Boy had Ek sign? or signing Hartman for $1.7ml and then putting up 34 goals? 

     

    It's a discussion board, I like hearing everyone's opinions that's why I'm here. During the season you'll find more positivity here.

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    The chemistry between Kaprisov and Zuccarello is way overblown, IMO.  It makes Zuccarello look much better, while I’m not sure it really helps Kaprisov.

    Zuccarello is basically a 1 PPG guy with Kaprisov, closer to .5 without.

    I was able to find something on statmuse that showed Kaprisov without Zuccarello.  It’s not perfect (I’m not sure whether it includes every game), but it shows Kaprisov with 23 goals and 23 assists and a +12 over 37 games.  That’s 100 point season over 82 games, right in line with his career stats.

    Conclusion:  Kaprisov would have “chemistry” with anybody you put out there.  He’s just that good.  Zuccarello has nothing to do with it.  Don’t let that be the reason we drag a salary cap boat anchor around.

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    2 hours ago, Dean said:

    If Dean is such a good coach , why doesn’t he have a job? Maybe minny fans don’t understand the value of things like the rest of the league does . Kinda like the bozo contracts we hand out aren’t given out by good teams . 

    By that logic there are no good GM's either, guess Billy isn't so bad now is he?

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