Jump to content
Hockey Wilderness Zone Coverage Property
  • What Are the Wild’s Ideal Defensive Pairings When Brodin Returns?


    Image courtesy of Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
    Neil Urbanski

    For the first time since Zachary L'Heureux slew-footed Jared Spurgeon on January 2, the Minnesota Wild had a fully healthy defensive corps for their showdown against the Boston Bruins on Tuesday night.

    But with Brodin’s return, the Wild finally have the luxury of deploying their defensemen however they’d like. They have eight to choose from, but Travis Dermott seems destined for the waiver wire. That would leave the Wild with the seven defensemen who made the team out of training camp: Spurgeon, Brodin, Brock Faber, Jacob Middleton, Declan Chisholm, Jon Merrill, and Zach Bogosian.

    As the season heads into the backstretch and teams begin ramping up for the playoffs, the Wild must effectively structure their defensive corps to compete with the top teams in the Western Conference. While Wild fans are drooling over the possibility of prized prospect Zeev Buium joining the team for a playoff run, any talk of that happening is merely conjecture. 

    The Wild have used 14 different defensive pairs for at least 30 minutes of five-on-five gameplay this season, shown below from most to least used:

    Screenshot 2025-02-05 at 11.07.22 AM.png

     *Data from Natural Stat Trick

    While the three most frequently-used pairings (Middleton-Faber, Spurgeon-Chisholm, and Bogosian-Merrill) feature one right and one left-handed player, none feature Brodin. The smooth-skating Swede has missed 22 of Minnesota’s 53 games due to injury. That said, the Wild have most frequently deployed Brodin as part of a right-left duo.

    The Wild have a diverse mix of attributes among their seven chosen defensemen, allowing them to mix and match depending on matchups or roster availability. Still, finding three steady pairings that John Hynes can write into the lineup card every night would provide significant stability for the team. It would also afford goaltenders Filip Gustavsson and Marc-André Fleury some predictability as they anticipate shots and read plays behind the same lineup nightly. 

    Ideally, a contending team can ice a mobile, reliable shutdown pairing that can be deployed against the opposing team’s top line each night. It’s also essential for this pairing to have enough puck-moving ability to consistently turn loose pucks and turnovers into changes of possession that force those top lines to retreat and defend. 

    The Wild seem to have already settled on Brodin and Spurgeon, a duo that fits the bill perfectly. In the 161 minutes of hockey the two have played together this season, they’ve been primarily matched against each team’s best players. Despite that, they’ve produced a 67.95% expected goals percentage (and an actual goals percentage of 66.67%), which is the best mark in the NHL for pairs that have played at least 100 minutes. The league average for such pairings is 49.13%. Combined with elite two-way center Joel Eriksson Ek, Brodin, and Spurgeon can control play against anyone in the NHL.

    Brodin is the ideal shutdown defenseman and has proved it by dominating against the league’s top player, Connor McDavid. According to Natural Stat Trick, when Brodin is on the ice with McDavid over the past three seasons, Minnesota has outshot the Edmonton Oilers 39 to 23. Meanwhile, Edmonton has outscored the Wild 4-3. 

    Against Nathan MacKinnon, who many consider the second-best player in the NHL, Brodin and the Wild have been even in shots with 44 apiece. In that time, the Wild have outscored their division rival 6-2. 

    That is not a typo. 

    Brodin uses his superb skating, edgework, and anticipation to control the flow of play and frustrate the league’s top players. It’s tantalizing to think how that might unfold over a seven-game series. 

    The 5-foot-9, 166 lbs. Spurgeon is a master of body positioning and anticipation, and these tools make him the perfect player to read off of Brodin to further suffocate the opposition. The stats from the past three seasons also suggest this. Minnesota has outshot and outscored McDavid (33-22 and 3-2) and MacKinnon (19-18 and 1-0) with Spurgeon on the ice.

    With the first pair settled, the Wild can deploy complementary second and third pairs that can play different styles. They should pair Faber and Chisholm on the second pair and use Middleton with Merrill or Bogosian on the third. 

    Middleton has enjoyed a strong season thus far, but his play has slipped lately. It’s probably a sign of regression after a run of sustained good fortune. Per MoneyPuck, Middleton’s expected goals percentage thus far is -0.5%, while his actual goal differential is +10. 

    When a player outperforms their expected metrics by that much, some regression is expected, and that’s been visible over the past month. Middleton’s isolated performance has slowly dipped after a strong run of play to start the season.

    Screenshot 2025-02-05 at 11.15.17 AM.png

    Still, Middleton is a solid player and would slot in nicely as a featured piece of an elite third pair. Merrill or Bogosian would complement his decent mobility and ability to make timely attacks when joining the rush in transition. 

    Merrill has quietly had a strong season thus far. He plays a conservative, heady style, producing strong underlying results for the depth defenseman. The duo has been solid when he’s been deployed with Middleton. The Wild have outscored opponents 5-3 with them on the ice and had an expected goals percentage of 60.3%. Furthermore, both are 6-foot-3 and capable of withstanding heavy forechecking and winning puck battles in the corners. 

    Bogosian and Middleton have not been as effective. They’ve outscored opponents 5-4 but had only 47.33% expected goals. Still, Bogosian brings some versatility as a righty. He also possesses a heavy shot that can strike fear into opponents and buy some space high in the offensive zone. 

    Putting Faber and Chisholm together would be an ideal second pairing with enough versatility to defend and attack against various play styles. Ideally deployed against the opposition’s second and third lines, they can use their elite skating to move themselves out of trouble and control possession. They can keep forecheckers on their heels because of their ability to skate pucks out of the zone and counter quickly after corralling loose pucks or turnovers. 

    In the 43 minutes Faber and Chisholm have played together, the Wild have had a 52.63% expected goals percentage and outshot opponents 25-24. Opponents have outscored them 3-0, but the stats suggest that might turn around with time. Furthermore, neither player has had the strongest output lately when the Wild have deployed them with different partners. Solidifying them as a pair would allow them time to discover how to capitalize on their complementary skills. 

    Faber and Chisholm are strong skaters and puck movers. Chisholm has more natural offensive instincts and has been increasingly improving as a defender, even if he leaves something to be desired in this area. Faber is an intelligent player who excels at everything. His size and ability to play a variety of styles mean he can provide a steadying presence defensively and combine with Chisholm in the offensive zone to interchange up high to create shooting lanes, move pucks high-to-low and laterally, and give opposing wingers nightmares. 

    Brodin is back, and the Wild’s defense is finally whole. With the pieces in the right place, it can be versatile enough to match up well against anyone. A regular lineup with pairings of Spurgeon-Brodin, Faber-Chisholm, and Middleton-Merrill/Bogosian gives the team its best chance at playoff success.

    Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    Hopefully they can keep it together while Kaprizov and Hartman are sidelined, and make a strong run at the end of the season with a healthy squad entering the playoffs.

    For next season though, assuming no trades, maybe they go with:

    Faber/Buium

    Brodin/Jiricek

    Middleton/Spurgeon

    Bogo as 7th D, with Lambos and Spacek available as necessary from AHL.

    Given that Buium could be ready at end of this season, I might trade Chisholm out this year to add forward talent for the hopeful playoff run.

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Brodin is unquestionably our best Defender

    My ideal pairing for as soon as it can materialize-

    brodin/jiri

    Faber/midds

     Spurge/bogo

     Once zeev arrives, and if he can play immediately, then put him w midds and dump fabrr to third pair w bogo

    id consider one, if not both of faber and spurge, as trade baits

    • Confused 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    44 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    Brodin is unquestionably our best Defender

    My ideal pairing for as soon as it can materialize-

    brodin/jiri

    Faber/midds

     Spurge/bogo

     Once zeev arrives, and if he can play immediately, then put him w midds and dump fabrr to third pair w bogo

    id consider one, if not both of faber and spurge, as trade baits

    Really? I'm curious why you think that as my opinion is drastically different from that. I'm always open to someone changing my mind but I think Faber will quickly become our best defender.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    2 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Hopefully they can keep it together while Kaprizov and Hartman are sidelined, and make a strong run at the end of the season with a healthy squad entering the playoffs.

    For next season though, assuming no trades, maybe they go with:

    Faber/Buium

    Brodin/Jiricek

    Middleton/Spurgeon

    Bogo as 7th D, with Lambos and Spacek available as necessary from AHL.

    Given that Buium could be ready at end of this season, I might trade Chisholm out this year to add forward talent for the hopeful playoff run.

    It sounds like you have pretty high expectations for Buium if you have him at the first pairing. But it sounds like this Wheeler guy does too. I hope he turns out and his skill translates to the NHL.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    2 hours ago, Enforceror said:

    Really? I'm curious why you think that as my opinion is drastically different from that. I'm always open to someone changing my mind but I think Faber will quickly become our best defender.

    Faber is not physical enough and not fast enough to be given the distinction of being the best defender on the team. on top of that his production has taken a dip and will continue to do so, once the promised phenom - zeev - arrives. this is where a smart GM comes in and evaluates the situation without any bias and acts. We know that Zeev will replace Faber on food chain as early as next year. Brodin is still plays as though he is 22 (he is our Nick L).  Jiri will be top 4 and Midds will have to be too. This will drive Faber value down (i suppose you can add Spurge here - but i think he stays - and gets his number retired and spend time with his 6 kids). So Faber is your asset. You dangle him for Elias. 

    • Confused 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I would look at trading both Faber and Spurgeon.  We overpaid for Faber and he is not strong enough to clear out the front of the net.  He is a $5mm a year guy but Billy jumped the gun again last year like he did with Hartman, Foligno and Zuccarello.  We need forward help as we are deep at D and he can net a good player back.  He is to small. We need trees.  Same with Spurgeon but he just needs to be dumped for whatever we can get to use his salary on a free agent.  Brodin, Middleton, jiricek, and Zeev should be the core and get 2 other big right handed guys who can skate to fill out the rest. People won’t like this but do we want to win or continue to suck.  We also need 3-4 guys to be moved for forwards to make this team a contender.  The goal should be the CUP not the playoffs or a first round win. Demand more.  We have been mediocre in the middle for 20 years

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

    So Faber is your asset.

    I agree. He’s almost a half point per game defenseman. He’s 6’1” and already over 200 lbs as a 22 year old. He’s got nice burst/recovery speed and excellent hockey instincts. Remember all this packaged into a player still on his ELC. Do you really want to trade him? I’d rather build around him. He’s only going to get better. 

    Edited by Burnt Toast
    Missed word
    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 minute ago, Burnt Toast said:

    I agree. He’s almost a half point per game defenseman. He’s 6’1” and already over 200 lbs as a 22 year old. He’s got nice burst/recovery speed and excellent hockey instincts. Remember all this packaged into a player still on his ELC. Do you really want to him? I’d rather build around him. He’s only going to get better. 

    You do understand next year Faber is set to make 8.5mm and will eat half of our $15mm cap penalty we are paying this year for a guy that should only be making 4-5mm.  Trade him for a good forward

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    44 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

    Billy jumped the gun again

    I think Brock would be commanding an even bigger contract if Wild Management hadn’t locked him up early. His trajectory as a top pairing defender is right on schedule. 

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    7 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

    Faber is set to make 8.5mm

    He’s worth every penny. He’s a top pairing defender, arguably our best overall. A guy like that is going to cost $12 M in a couple of years. Nothing is for certain but he’s got every indication of a fantastic investment. 

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I agree with Burnt toast.  Really can’t believe people are hating on Faber and want to get rid of him already.  He is 22 and only on his second full season.  Yes his point production is down a bit from last year, 6 goals and 15 assists in 50 games this year compared to 8 and 39 in 82 last year, but he is a plus 10 this year compared to a minus 1 last year.  Maybe the 8.5 mill is an overpay next year, but if he continues to grow as player I think he will be underpaid in the middle and back half of his contract.  

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Understand your guys opinion but I don’t think he is top pair guy or even a second pair guy.  I think Billy overpaid just watch him against the big west teams.  He gets pushed around and is scared of contact when he has the puck.  He is to small for what we need and we need forwards and his contract could be used to bring us a great center. To many people are homers.  We need to beef up this team and be smart with how we spend money.  Faber, Spurgeon, Boldy, Zuccarello, nojo, trenin, Hartman, Foligno, Rossi as well (unless he wants to do a 2yr bridge at 4-5mm), all should be gone to make this a better team.  Just stating the facts.  The team is a mess and Billy created it. 

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    8 hours ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

    Understand your guys opinion but I don’t think he is top pair guy or even a second pair guy.  I think Billy overpaid just watch him against the big west teams.  He gets pushed around and is scared of contact when he has the puck.  He is to small for what we need and we need forwards and his contract could be used to bring us a great center. To many people are homers.  We need to beef up this team and be smart with how we spend money.  Faber, Spurgeon, Boldy, Zuccarello, nojo, trenin, Hartman, Foligno, Rossi as well (unless he wants to do a 2yr bridge at 4-5mm), all should be gone to make this a better team.  Just stating the facts.  The team is a mess and Billy created it. 

    So you want to get rid of 9 players, including our 3 best young players to make us a better team?  Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but you say you are saying facts.  Not sure where the facts are in your post.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    • Haha 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    32 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    So you want to get rid of 9 players, including our 3 best young players to make us a better team?  Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but you say you are saying facts.  Not sure where the facts are in your post.

    All these players should be made available in a trade if it makes the team better.  We are going no where with the players I listed. 

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I am interested to hear from those of you who think Faber is to small and over paid, who you think are the best defensemen in the NHL?   Based on NHL.com, the top defensemen for 2024/25 are:

    • Cale Makar: 26, 6'0",187, 9 mil/year through 2027. 
    • Quinn Hughes: 25, 5'10", 180, 7.85 mil through 2027
    • Victor Hedman: 34, 6'7", 245, 8 mil through 2026
    • Roman Josi: 34, 6'1", 201, 9.059 mil through 2028
    • Miro Heiskanen: 25, 6'2", 197, 8.45 mil through 2029
    • Gustav Forsling: 28, 6'1", 199, 5.75 mil through 2032
    • Charlie McAvoy: 27, 6'1", 213, 9.5 mil through 2030
    • Adam Fox: 26, 5'11", 180, 9.5 mil through 2029
    • Evan Bouchard: 25, 6'3, 192, 3.9 mil through 2025
    • Devan Towes: 30, 6'1", 191, 7.25 mil through 2031
    • Brock Faber: 22, 6'1", 200, 8.5 mil starting 2025-2033

     

    Although I am not saying that Faber will be as good as Makar or Hughes, those two will likely sign contracts after 2027 for 12 mil+ per year, and I would guess Bouchard will be signing for close to 11 mil next year if not more.  Fox and Heiskanen will sign new deals in 4 years and will probably be getting at least 11or 12 mil.  Besides Hedman and I suppose McAvoy, none of these guys are bigger than Faber, who could easily put on another ten pounds as he gets older.

    NHL.com also has a good article of who they think are the top young defenseman in the NHL who have a chance of cracking the top ten defenseman in 3 years and Faber is on that list.

    Top young defensemen entering this season discussed by NHL.com | NHL.com

    Based on Faber's size, it doesn't look to me that he is too small.  An argument could be made that he needs to learn to use his size more, but remember, he is only 22 and in his second full season.  Give him time.  If he continues to develop, he could easily be a top 20 D-Man and will be well worth his contract in a couple of years and probably underpaid.

     

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    11 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

    I agree. He’s almost a half point per game defenseman. He’s 6’1” and already over 200 lbs as a 22 year old. He’s got nice burst/recovery speed and excellent hockey instincts. Remember all this packaged into a player still on his ELC. Do you really want to trade him? I’d rather build around him. He’s only going to get better. 

    starting next year his cap hit is 8.5. you have jiricek and middleton as your heavies. then spurge brodin and buium. you use suter 2.0 to bring in a big fish. hence brock faber for elias p. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    11 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

    He’s worth every penny. He’s a top pairing defender, arguably our best overall. A guy like that is going to cost $12 M in a couple of years. Nothing is for certain but he’s got every indication of a fantastic investment. 

    you can hang on to mediocracy - that's what we been doing for the last 30 years - or be smart and take risks

    faber is not irreplaceable, and he will likely have the same impact as Suter o the ice (you can decide if that was good or not)

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    31 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    I am interested to hear from those of you who think Faber is to small and over paid, who you think are the best defensemen in the NHL?   Based on NHL.com, the top defensemen for 2024/25 are:

    • Cale Makar: 26, 6'0",187, 9 mil/year through 2027. 
    • Quinn Hughes: 25, 5'10", 180, 7.85 mil through 2027
    • Victor Hedman: 34, 6'7", 245, 8 mil through 2026
    • Roman Josi: 34, 6'1", 201, 9.059 mil through 2028
    • Miro Heiskanen: 25, 6'2", 197, 8.45 mil through 2029
    • Gustav Forsling: 28, 6'1", 199, 5.75 mil through 2032
    • Charlie McAvoy: 27, 6'1", 213, 9.5 mil through 2030
    • Adam Fox: 26, 5'11", 180, 9.5 mil through 2029
    • Evan Bouchard: 25, 6'3, 192, 3.9 mil through 2025
    • Devan Towes: 30, 6'1", 191, 7.25 mil through 2031
    • Brock Faber: 22, 6'1", 200, 8.5 mil starting 2025-2033

     

    Although I am not saying that Faber will be as good as Makar or Hughes, those two will likely sign contracts after 2027 for 12 mil+ per year, and I would guess Bouchard will be signing for close to 11 mil next year if not more.  Fox and Heiskanen will sign new deals in 4 years and will probably be getting at least 11or 12 mil.  Besides Hedman and I suppose McAvoy, none of these guys are bigger than Faber, who could easily put on another ten pounds as he gets older.

    NHL.com also has a good article of who they think are the top young defenseman in the NHL who have a chance of cracking the top ten defenseman in 3 years and Faber is on that list.

    Top young defensemen entering this season discussed by NHL.com | NHL.com

    Based on Faber's size, it doesn't look to me that he is too small.  An argument could be made that he needs to learn to use his size more, but remember, he is only 22 and in his second full season.  Give him time.  If he continues to develop, he could easily be a top 20 D-Man and will be well worth his contract in a couple of years and probably underpaid.

     

    the rest of the list is unquestionably THE top defenders on their team. faber isn't and won't be next year or any other time if all the whispers about zeev is true and jiricek comes into his own. 

    the point i am making is it's smart to figure out if you want to capitalize on Faber's peak value or not. if not - then you will be fine - he will be your 2nd/3rd D with 40 pts ceiling. 

    or you want to see if you can get an offensive dynamo to pair with Kaprizov? i'd wager that's the way to go. 

    again you have Zeev, Brodin, Midds and Jiricek as that core. You also likely to have at least ONE D from AHL finally develop into something. Now is the time to parlay some of that depth into what is missing. and we know what's missing. we have seen it play out on the ice with Kaprizov. You need offense. And Faber can get you that so i'd ship him out in the off season.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    5 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    the rest of the list is unquestionably THE top defenders on their team. faber isn't and won't be next year or any other time if all the whispers about zeev is true and jiricek comes into his own. 

    the point i am making is it's smart to figure out if you want to capitalize on Faber's peak value or not. if not - then you will be fine - he will be your 2nd/3rd D with 40 pts ceiling. 

    or you want to see if you can get an offensive dynamo to pair with Kaprizov? i'd wager that's the way to go. 

    again you have Zeev, Brodin, Midds and Jiricek as that core. You also likely to have at least ONE D from AHL finally develop into something. Now is the time to parlay some of that depth into what is missing. and we know what's missing. we have seen it play out on the ice with Kaprizov. You need offense. And Faber can get you that so i'd ship him out in the off season.

    Agreed that they are the top defenseman on their team, but they are all 25 years or older while Faber is only 22.  He had 47 points last year as a rookie, so unless that turns out to be his best year, I do not see 40 points being his ceiling.  Granted he is only on pace for 34 points this year, but I would like to bet on his potential.  
     

    I would agree with you if he was 25 or 26 and his best year was when he was 21, but I think it is too big of a gamble to trade him this early. Time will tell I suppose.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    25 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    be smart and take risks

    100% agree that this is an important step in a SC push. Vegas & Florida are recent examples. JE & MT were great additions at just the right moment. My opinion is that we’re a couple of seasons away. The Wild chose to rebuild through the draft. Until we see how those top picks fit in we don’t have the depth to be a top contender. I hate waiting. I waited 5 years for KK, it’s almost 5 years to see some long lasting results from the Granlund trade. But the team has been slowly getting better. I’m confident that when the Wild are one big trade away from truly contending they’ll pull the trigger. 

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    13 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    We know that Zeev will replace Faber on food chain as early as next year. Brodin is still plays as though he is 22 (he is our Nick L).  Jiri will be top 4 and Midds will have to be too. This will drive Faber value down (i suppose you can add Spurge here - but i think he stays - and gets his number retired and spend time with his 6 kids). So Faber is your asset. You dangle him for Elias. 

    Zeev is left-handed first of all. I love me some Brods and think he's one of the most underrated d-men in the league but he's getting older and injuries are starting to catch up with him, he's missed 20 games each of the last 2 seasons.

    We've got nobody in Iowa that fits the bill of a tall, heavy, good skating RHD and those guys don't just spring up on the market especially for 8.5m. Faber is a franchise guy and is only 22.

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    11 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    Agreed that they are the top defenseman on their team, but they are all 25 years or older while Faber is only 22.  He had 47 points last year as a rookie, so unless that turns out to be his best year, I do not see 40 points being his ceiling.  Granted he is only on pace for 34 points this year, but I would like to bet on his potential.  
     

    I would agree with you if he was 25 or 26 and his best year was when he was 21, but I think it is too big of a gamble to trade him this early. Time will tell I suppose.

    Faber has what like 20 pts this year? I mean seems like 40 pt max.....then next year - he will be off PP1 so that cuts the points total too (or at least makes it more difficult to get them) and i do realize it's more than just points, but i just don't see him being a number 1 D on our team. would you not pull the trigger in the offseason if he lands you elias?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites




    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...