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  • The Tarasenko Trade Is Sneaky Clever


    Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
    Justin Hein

    Minnesota sports fans have a very strong sense of fairness. It’s a sentiment common among middle children and others who feel passed over, likely a result of some simple math.

    In the 26 seasons of the North Stars plus the 25 seasons of the Wild, you’d expect one or two Stanley Cups in Minnesota just based on the number of opponents among whom to distribute those championships. 

    Then, watch from afar as the Dallas Stars hoist Lord Stanley in just their sixth season (in a city that never even freezes!), and that sense of fairness calcifies into jealousy. 

    So, when the team owner promises Christmas morning on July 1, 2025, who can blame those fans for a bitter reaction? I’d cry too if I opened my presents, hoping for a new set of golf clubs (bona fide top-six help) and instead found a $10 Amazon water brush (a 4th-line penalty-killing center, Nico Sturm) and a $50 gift card to Second Swing (a past-his-prime Vladimir Tarasenko). 

    It falls on deaf ears to point out that the free agent class was unimpressive. I’ve been of the same opinion: 

    You’ve got all this cap space, now get creative! Find a way to use it! 

    But in the case of the Tarasenko trade, how much more creative does it get? 

    The beauty of the Tarasenko deal is in the one-year term remaining on his contract. That’s nice for any team, but specifically for Minnesota. The reason? Kirill Kaprizov’s contract extension. The Wild need to do all they can to maximize their 2025-26 cap space without putting Kaprizov’s extension at risk. 

    Tarasenko doesn’t just offer a viable floor at the second-line right wing (something that a 35-year-old Marcus Johansson doesn’t). He also keeps the 2026-27 cap sheet clean and flexible to reload again in the next offseason. 

    At the time of this writing, there are very few questions about the 2026-27 roster that can’t be answered by Marco Rossi’s contract situation. Assuming the Wild re-signs him or replaces him with a player of similar value, they have about $45 million of cap space to address the following needs in the 2026 offseason: 

    That leaves between $12 and $18 million to extend or replace Jiricek, Gustavsson, and Rossi. $12 million would be tight, but at least the plan is clear. $18 million would be incredibly flexible, unless one or both of Jiricek and Gustavsson perform far above expectations. Still, that would be a good problem to have, especially in Jiricek’s case. 

    Tarasenko’s contract provides the Wild with better roster flexibility than either of Brock Boeser’s or Mikael Granlund’s multi-year deals. 

    So, he’s cheap and won’t scare off Kirill. Now, the retort: 

    Is he a second-line winger?

    It’s complicated. In each of Tarasenko's past three stops (Ottawa 2023-24, Florida at the 2024 trade deadline, and Detroit 2025-26), the answer has been no. His results on Ottawa’s second line looked more like a middle-six scorer than a true second-line winger. 

    When he was traded to Florida at the deadline, Tarasenko mainly played on the third line with rookies Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen. In those minutes, he performed with an on-ice impact more fitting of a second-line player, but deployed as a third-liner. 

    Tarasenko’s time in Detroit looked a lot like his time in Ottawa. Flashes of the old skill, but more of a middle-six forward than a top-six talent. 

    Tarasenko ATH Player Card 2024-25.png

    So why should it be any different in Minnesota, with Tarasenko a whole year older? 

    Three reasons: rest, linemates, and Kirill Kaprizov. 

    Consider the difference in Tarasenko’s 2024 offseason versus 2025. After he hoisted the Cup with Florida on June 24, 2024, Tarasenko had three months and 16 days of rest. This year, his final game was on April 17. That’s more than two months of offseason rest and training for Tarasenko’s Minnesota season compared to his Detroit season. 

    That’s about a 50% increase in rest this season compared to last. Add training camp and preseason to that, and the difference becomes even larger. 

    You can roll your eyes at the inevitable September report that The Russian Veteran is in the best shape of his life. The fact is that the extra rest can make a difference, especially for a player who turns 34 in December. 

    Barring a total failure to extend or replace Marco Rossi, Tarasenko’s linemates in Minnesota will be better than they were in Ottawa and Detroit. That could have been the reason for Tarasenko’s improved on-ice results in Florida, when he looked like a true second-liner rather than a middle-six tweener. Compare the ‘24-25 on-ice impacts of J.T. Compher and Jonatan Berggren to the ‘23-24 impacts from Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen. 

    Compher ATH Player Card 2024-25.pngBerggren ATH Player Card 2024-25.png

    Lundell ATH Player Card 2024-25.pngLuostarinen ATH Player Card 2024-25.png

    Now, which group looks more similar to Rossi and Zuccarello? The answer is Florida’s Lundell and Luostarinen. Furthermore, Rossi and Zuccarello appear to offer better support than Tarasenko’s Floridian linemates. 

    Rossi ATH Player Card 2024-25.pngZuccarello ATH Player Card 2024-25.png

    If Minnesota can get the Florida version of Tarasenko instead of the Detroit version, even two years older, it would be a boon. 

    That’s not even mentioning Kaprizov’s impact. No, I’m not saying that Kirill’s Russian Magic will cause supernatural improvement for Tarasenko, his countryman. But that Russian Magic should give Tarasenko better matchups via the gravity that a Hart Trophy candidate carries. 

    Compare Kaprizov’s matchup-dictating presence to the star power in Tarasenko’s past three stops. Ottawa’s best players (Brady Tkachuck, Jake Sanderson, and Tim Stutzle) and Detroit’s top-end talent (Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin, and Alex DeBrincat) don’t strike fear into opponents' hearts the way that Kaprizov does. 

    Conversely, the ‘23-24 Panthers (Tarasenko’s must successful stop) sported multiple dominant talents including Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, Gustav Forsling, and Matthew Tkachuk. While the Wild can’t match that level of depth, Kaprizov’s offensive dominance will provide similar shelter for Tarasenko’s matchups. 

    There’s one factor that could negate all of this, which is obvious: 

    Tarasenko is getting older. 

    However, it’s entirely possible for players who were elite in their prime to maintain middle-of-the-lineup value into their early 30s. Based on Tarasenko’s past three NHL stops, Minnesota seems like a likely location for him to perform better on the second line than any other winger on the team. 

    Nothing is ever guaranteed in the NHL, and Tarasenko’s floor could fall out at any moment. And it’s true: Tarasenko is nowhere near the slam-dunk “Christmas Morning”-type talent that fans were promised. Unfortunately, none of those types of players made it to free agency. 

    Ultimately, the only certainty of this move is perhaps the most important: no matter how poorly this turns out, it’s only for one year. The Tarasenko trade can’t overspend Kaprizov’s money, and it can’t sap his hope in the team. If the 2025-26 roster underperforms, there’s plenty of ‘26-27 cap space to pitch to Kaprizov. 

    That’s not just an empty promise, either -- it’s on PuckPedia.com right now. 

    Without a hint of optimism, this move makes something out of the nothing that was the 2025 free agent class. It’s a zero-price, zero-downside move that makes use of this season’s cap space rather than leaving it burning a hole in Bill Guerin’s pocket. 

    Forget the “Christmas Morning” quote and all the noise of expectations. Put yourself in the GM’s shoes, imagine yourself sitting behind that desk on the phone on July 1. This is managerial creativity. 

    It’s not Christmas morning, but this is the closest realistic move to it. 

    Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

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    Leipold is a dummy for proclaiming it would be Christmas. Way to overpromise and under deliver, Craig!! 

    The Tarasenko move does make some sense as a one-year stopgap high-reward gamble, but I think I'd have rather seen us add Boeser as a higher-floor option myself. 

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    thanks, Justin.

    This signing seems to be 100% the last pre-req for Kap signing. He convinced both Bill and Vlady to join and new contract is next logical step. 8 x 15

    if that’s the reason - I’m good w it

    if the reason is they want Vlady to contribute, I think we need to be ready for second coming of Nyquist 

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    This article is pretty spot on.  I get how many think we should have done more, but after all the free agents signed with their own teams, there was not much left to choose from.  The players that were involved in sign and trades were Marner, Miller and Dobson.  We did not need Dobson or Miller and Marner had a NMC and wanted to go to Vegas, so no chance at him.  We did try for Paterka and Coyle.  That leaves a pretty weak free agent class.  Would we be better off with Granlund at 3 years and 7M AAV?  Or Boeser at 7 years and $7M AAV.  Signing either of these two and we lose flexibility at the trade deadline and next year.  Dvorak, who's best year is 38 points at one year and $5.4?  The only other decent player out there that is available is Ehlers.  I guess we will wait and see what he signs for but would assume it will be for a few years at a minimum of $7M AAV.  If Rossi signs for around $6-$7M, we will have around 4-$5M in space for the deadline to make some moves.  

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    Quote

    Is he a second-line winger?

    No, but it's irrelevant anyway. The owner, management, and even the fans are perfectly content with mediocrity. Keep buying tickets sheeple.

    The new Nyquil. Any suggestions for what his nickname will be? Tarastinko?

    Edited by Scalptrash
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    Except, given what we've repeatedly seen (eg w NoJo and Nyquist) is that salary seems to get you line placement priority and how will this impact how Oghren and/or Yurov get opportunities this year?

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    15 minutes ago, WIWild said:

    Except, given what we've repeatedly seen (eg w NoJo and Nyquist) is that salary seems to get you line placement priority and how will this impact how Oghren and/or Yurov get opportunities this year?

    NoJo is the bar to clear if you want opportunities this season. He's at $800k. If you work harder on the ice than he does, you'll get opportunities.

    It will be interesting to see how they shuffle lines throughout the season, particularly who elevates if someone is out for a few games. It's been a long wait, but some young players should legitimately be ready to take big steps forward in the upcoming season.

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    19 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    NoJo is the bar to clear if you want opportunities this season. He's at $800k. If you work harder on the ice than he does, you'll get opportunities.

    It will be interesting to see how they shuffle lines throughout the season, particularly who elevates if someone is out for a few games. It's been a long wait, but some young players should legitimately be ready to take big steps forward in the upcoming season.

    Assuming Rossi is signed, how do you see the lines in game 1.  I was thinking they would do the following.

    Ek, Kap, Zucc

    Rossi, Boldy, Tarasenko

    Yurov, Hartman, Foligno

    Sturm, Trenin, Ohgren

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    11 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    Assuming Rossi is signed, how do you see the lines in game 1.  I was thinking they would do the following.

    Ek, Kap, Zucc

    Rossi, Boldy, Tarasenko

    Yurov, Hartman, Foligno

    Sturm, Trenin, Ohgren

    Those make a lot of sense to me. Allows them to double-shift Kaprizov in place of Tarasenko in portions of the games, or Boldy up for Zuccarello or Eriksson Ek--he's not at all bad at faceoffs for a wing.

    They might try Boldy, Rossi, Kaprizov and Zuccy, JEE, Tarasenko at times.

    Hard to say what Hynes will do, but my first guess aligns with yours, with a bit of Russian flavor on all 4 lines.

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    2 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    thanks, Justin.

    This signing seems to be 100% the last pre-req for Kap signing. He convinced both Bill and Vlady to join and new contract is next logical step. 8 x 15

    if that’s the reason - I’m good w it

    if the reason is they want Vlady to contribute, I think we need to be ready for second coming of Nyquist 

    Whatever the reason was for getting Tarasenko, one upside of having him is that maybe he can help Yurov settle in here a little quicker, maybe kinda become a mentor to him. Vlad told Russo that he's willing to do all he can in that regard. I realize that Kap will be there for Yurov too but I'm not sure if he's comfortable in that role.

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    To me this offseason just one more justification that BG doing absolutely nothing. Yes u can discuss each player and find plus and minuses with signings BUT in reality all of these does not make Wild any better. Not even by inch. So they could be done BUT couldn’t not be done absolutely nothing difference. And by the way with Rossi he is doing very similar things what with FIala. 

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    21 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    Leipold is a dummy for proclaiming it would be Christmas. Way to overpromise and under deliver, Craig!! 

    The Tarasenko move does make some sense as a one-year stopgap high-reward gamble, but I think I'd have rather seen us add Boeser as a higher-floor option myself. 

    I would've like Boeser too, but he comes with more risk in the form of Cap Flexibility. If neither of Boeser or Tarasenko work out, the Wild are fine, and the Canucks are screwed. 

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    20 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    thanks, Justin.

    This signing seems to be 100% the last pre-req for Kap signing. He convinced both Bill and Vlady to join and new contract is next logical step. 8 x 15

    if that’s the reason - I’m good w it

    if the reason is they want Vlady to contribute, I think we need to be ready for second coming of Nyquist 

    Age is a concern with both of Tarasenko and Nyquist, but Tarasenko at least performed well last season. Nyquist was acquired in the middle of a down year. 

    Vlad has also been a better player in his prime, so a better upside swing. 

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    19 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

    No, but it's irrelevant anyway. The owner, management, and even the fans are perfectly content with mediocrity. Keep buying tickets sheeple.

    The new Nyquil. Any suggestions for what his nickname will be? Tarastinko?

    I think it's reasonable to hope that he can perform like a second-liner in this top 6. Assuming Rossi is back, lots of play drivers and matchup-coverage from Kaprizov. 

    As for the nickname, I like Taz but he's going to need to be a psycho to live up to it. 

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    18 hours ago, OldSchool said:

    Whatever the reason was for getting Tarasenko, one upside of having him is that maybe he can help Yurov settle in here a little quicker, maybe kinda become a mentor to him. Vlad told Russo that he's willing to do all he can in that regard. I realize that Kap will be there for Yurov too but I'm not sure if he's comfortable in that role.

    Underrated part of this is his experience with injuries. Perhaps he can be a mentor to Kirill in that way -- help him find the line between pushing himself to elite status but taking care of his body enough to stay available. 

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    16 hours ago, Lovehockey said:

    To me this offseason just one more justification that BG doing absolutely nothing. Yes u can discuss each player and find plus and minuses with signings BUT in reality all of these does not make Wild any better. Not even by inch. So they could be done BUT couldn’t not be done absolutely nothing difference. And by the way with Rossi he is doing very similar things what with FIala. 

    Would you prefer that the Wild let Rossi walk and overpaid a different winger? It's frustrating to say but the options simply weren't there this summer. 

    Tarasenko addresses the hole at 2nd line wing and leaves room to retain Rossi. He also leaves flexibility to go all-in next season, which none of the other A-list signings would have done. 

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    1 hour ago, Justin Hein said:

    Would you prefer that the Wild let Rossi walk and overpaid a different winger? It's frustrating to say but the options simply weren't there this summer. 

    Tarasenko addresses the hole at 2nd line wing and leaves room to retain Rossi. He also leaves flexibility to go all-in next season, which none of the other A-list signings would have done. 

    Thank you Justin for interacting with this frustrated fanbase. It looks like this year was a bad year to suddenly have money to spend. BG really needs to focus on the trade deadline and next years cap availability. I know it sounds like just another excuse for the team to not be successful but it does seem to be reality.

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    1 hour ago, Justin Hein said:

    I would've like Boeser too, but he comes with more risk in the form of Cap Flexibility. If neither of Boeser or Tarasenko work out, the Wild are fine, and the Canucks are screwed. 

    Yeah, that's a good point. I just had hoped for a younger option that was more in-line with the age of the core group and not another band-aid option after getting that in Johansson the last two years. 

    Granted Tarasenko should be an upgrade on Mojo, but he's not likely to be as big of one as Boeser would be. 

    Guess I'll just keep my fingers crossed there's better options at the TDL.

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    2 hours ago, Justin Hein said:

    Age is a concern with both of Tarasenko and Nyquist, but Tarasenko at least performed well last season. Nyquist was acquired in the middle of a down year. 

    Vlad has also been a better player in his prime, so a better upside swing. 

    Thats true, but watching him live last year (few games - small sample) he was doing a good Vanek / Heater impression (and not of their early years) ….. I hope im wrong and he is rejuvenated 😎

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    Ah, Christmas morning. Yeah, maybe you only get a $10 and $50 giftcard, but let's look at it from the loving family that is doing the buying. 

    They waited, and waited, and waited until that bonus check came in and when they went to Target, or wherever, the shelves were empty. All the great things were purchased, they even closed the back half of the store since there was nothing there. 

    At the last moment, all they could conjure up was the giftcard idea, since they ran out of time. But, on the bright side, they still have plenty of money for your birthday, which is around the beginning of March. 

    I commend Guerin for not spending to spend. His spending needs to have specific targets for things we need and don't have. Justin mentioned around $18m next season to sign some people, like a 2nd line. What if 1 of those guys is on an ELC? That certainly changes the equation. 

    I think Guerin can get a jump on next season's UFA class by holding onto the money this offseason, and targeting specific TDL candidates in March and perhaps resigning them. 

    Did anyone see how much Philly paid for Christian Dvorak? $5.4m! 

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    Unless you want 6 or 7 years of Ehlers or Boeser for 7-8.5m, you weren't gonna win out here.

    I'm not going to believe some mythical first liner option is waiting at the TDL or free agency next year, but this give Guerin 6 more months to see prospects, but see them in real action too.  If any of them don't cut it, there's evidence to support it 

    My biggest concern was cutting bait with Rossi and forcing Hartman back to 2C or anoint Yurov too soon.  There's every chance Yurov is just plain better than Rossi, but I'd like to see the eye test in crunch time first.  Throw years at a Boeser or Ehlers, you're locking things up before a better play "might" be waiting.

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    Sometimes when you promise the kids a vacation to Wally World you end up arriving at a Wally World that's under repair. Wally World will open again, and the Wild will have the $$$ to take every security guard on the roller coaster.

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    1 hour ago, Fezig said:

    Sometimes when you promise the kids a vacation to Wally World you end up arriving at a Wally World that's under repair. Wally World will open again, and the Wild will have the $$$ to take every security guard on the roller coaster.

    But do we trust John Candy to run the show.  See what I did there?

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    2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Unless you want 6 or 7 years of Ehlers or Boeser for 7-8.5m, you weren't gonna win out here.

    I’m not mad that we didn’t chase one of these two. That said, this team is still at least two grown ass top six forwards from being a post season relevant nhl team.  We exchanged Vlad for NoJo in our top six.  That’s a push at best.  Zuccy is another year older.  Rossi is the de facto 2C.  The guy who couldn’t be trusted in last seasons playoffs.  Ok fine.  These things take time.  Is this the TDL that bill brings in some top six talent?   Are we just going to bet on yurov arriving as a top 6’r?   We’re sliding sideways here bill.  

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    5 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Unless you want 6 or 7 years of Ehlers or Boeser for 7-8.5m, you weren't gonna win out here.

    I'm not going to believe some mythical first liner option is waiting at the TDL or free agency next year, but this give Guerin 6 more months to see prospects, but see them in real action too.  If any of them don't cut it, there's evidence to support it 

    My biggest concern was cutting bait with Rossi and forcing Hartman back to 2C or anoint Yurov too soon.  There's every chance Yurov is just plain better than Rossi, but I'd like to see the eye test in crunch time first.  Throw years at a Boeser or Ehlers, you're locking things up before a better play "might" be waiting.

    The team proved in the first half last season that they are talented and capable of winning. Injuries took the sustainability out of that equation. The team had no ammo or cash to make moves when they needed it. With luck, this season will be different. young guys moving up, new guys moving in, current guys placed in better positions, non-producers sidelined. The TDL will be BG's shopping trip if he plays the cards well. All of this could make a great year. Or the hockey gods will look and say......nah! That ain't happening.

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