The Wild Should Become Russia In Kaprizov’s Absence

Bill Guerin thought it was good that the Minnesota Wild had no other Russian players when they signed Kirill Kaprizov in July 2020.

“It's actually better for him that he doesn't have another [Russian] guy on the team, who's there just because he's Russian,” Guerin posited. “It's forced him to get involved on his own. He's got that personality where he wants to be involved. So he puts himself out there, and the guys love him.”

Guerin said he offered to acquire a Russian player to help Kaprizov transition to playing in North America, but Kaprizov declined. “‘Only if it helps us win,’” Guerin said Kaprizov told him. “That right there says a lot.”

The Wild took Kaprizov 135th overall in 2015, and he has become Minnesota’s franchise player. However, he was available in the fifth round because bringing Russian players to the United States is complicated. It took him five years to arrive in America, but Kaprizov made an immediate impact after they got him to sign at age 23. He had a goal and two assists in his first game and has scored 40-plus goals in his first three full seasons. 

Minnesota’s only regret is that they couldn’t get him to come over earlier. 

On Tuesday, the Wild announced that Kaprizov will undergo surgery for a lower-body injury and will miss a month. Kaprizov has a significant presence on the ice, but his absence will loom larger. Kaprizov is the franchise. Brock Faber is a foundational player on the blue line, and Matt Boldy is a good secondary scorer. Joel Eriksson Ek and Marco Rossi are the best center tandem they’ve had in franchise history. Still, Kaprizov drives winning more than any other player on the team.

Guerin played hardball with Kaprizov in their first negotiations, ultimately signing him to a five-year, $45 million contract in 2021. However, owner Craig Leipold has committed to keeping him in Minnesota. "He's going to be the focus of what we're going to do," Leipold said in October. "We plan to re-sign him. I will tell you nobody will offer more money than us, or longer [years], so all we have to do is prove to him that we want to win."

The Wild have struggled to build a winner around Kaprizov. Despite adding a three-time All-Star who averages 99 points per 82 games, the Wild haven’t made it out of the first round since 2014-15 – the year before they drafted Kaprizov. Part of the reason is that Guerin bought out Zach Parise and Ryan Suter in 2021, creating cap hell they will escape after this year. 

However, part of it is that Guerin has used Minnesota’s minimal cap space inefficiently.

The Wild traded for Marcus Johansson at the 2022-23 trade deadline and signed him to a two-year, $4 million extension. Johansson, 34, had 14 points in 36 games during the 2020-21 season, his first stint in Minnesota. After the trade, he had 18 points in 20 games but 30 in 78 last year. 

In April 2023, the Wild signed Freddy Gaudreau to an unconventional five-year, $10.5 million contract. Gaudreau scored 33 goals and had 82 points in his first two seasons with the Wild, and he has 14 goals and 35 points in the two years since. 

Dean Evason lobbied for the Wild to sign Gaudreau, who he coached with the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals. However, Minnesota fired Evason in November last year after a 5-10-4 start. Gaudreau, 31, isn’t going to become more productive as he gets older. Perhaps the Wild can offload him on the Columbus Blue Jackets, who hired Evason. However, given his lack of production, they’re likely stuck with him.

Six months after extending Gaudreau, the Wild re-upped with Ryan Hartman for three years, $12 million. Hartman, 30, had 34 goals and 65 points the year before Guerin extended him. He had 36 goals and 82 points in the two years after signing it. 

Hartman went 18 games without a goal earlier this year and has become a liability because of his undisciplined play. Since signing the extension, Hartman has gone from being a glue guy to a goon.

Those are the three most egregious examples. Still, other contracts aren’t trending in the right direction, highlighting a flaw in Guerin’s team-building methodology.

Marcus Foligno signed a four-year, $16 million extension in September 2023. He’s a team leader, a gritty forward, and a wine mom. Everyone loves him. Still, he had ten goals and 22 points in the first year of the contract, and Minnesota has signed him through age 36.

Minnesota also bought the dead-cat bounce on Zach Bogosian. 

Although these contracts are relatively small, the numbers add up. There’s a better way to build a competitive roster, starting with trying to find young Russian role players with upside.

There are nearly 145 million people in Russia. There has to be someone who’s defensively responsible but can score more than Gaudreau or Johansson from Omsk, Tomsk, or Nizhnevartovsk, right? Isn’t there a glue guy from Yekaterinburg or Krasnoyarsk who doesn’t take careless penalties? 

Minnesota has already started adding Russian players since Kaprizov arrived. 

In March last year, the Wild added Marat Khusnutdinov after the KHL season concluded. Khusnutinov is an explosive skater who plays a 200-foot game, but he only had one goal in 16 games last year and two in 48 games this season. He’s mostly played a fourth-line role in Minnesota.

Khusnutinov is a developing player who benefitted from Kaprizov’s presence. He’s 22 and may have an offensive potential the Wild can unlock over time. Meanwhile, they signed Yakov Trenin to a four-year, $14 million contract in the offseason, and it’s already looking like a dud. 

Trenin scored 14.4 goals per 82 games in the four seasons before he signed with the Wild. However, he has only four goals and eight points this season. Minnesota signed him to shore up their penalty kill, but he hasn’t been the gritty, defensively responsible forward they need. 

Still, there’s more reason to believe a 28-year-old player will turn it around than one in his mid-30s. It also makes sense to sign a Russian player, who may entice other Russians to come over. It’s not about appeasing Kaprizov, although the Wild should always act with their franchise player in mind. Instead, they should try to create a Russian-friendly environment to tap into a talent base other NHL clubs have trouble accessing.

Bringing players over from Russia is complicated. Moscow is nearly 5,000 miles from the Twin Cities, and Russians speak a different language and come from a different culture. There are also complex geopolitical dynamics, and Guerin had to pick up the red phone to get Kaprizov out of Russia in 2022. 

Still, it’s worth the effort to establish a Russian connection. Assuming Guerin extends Kaprizov, he has most of his core in place. He landed Boldy and Eriksson Ek on team-friendly deals. However, Guerin extended Faber for eight years, $68 million in the offseason, and he drove up the cost on Rossi by hesitating to extend him last year. 

Therefore, Guerin will have to be diligent about cap space again, even though most of Parise and Suter’s dead cap is coming off the books, and the NHL is raising the salary cap. 

Guerin built the Wild in his image during the Parise-Suter cap hell years. He was a large, physical player who was more productive in his 30s than in his 20s, an anomaly. Whether it’s conscious or not, Guerin has prioritized size in his roster-building and disregarded aging curves. 

In his next act, Guerin must build Moscow in Minnesota for Kaprizov, and he should start now. Hire Russian scouts and translators. Make connections with amateur teams. Look where nobody else is looking.

The Wild must add young Russians with upside instead of supplementing the roster with aging, lumbering players. Doing so isn’t about making Kaprizov comfortable. It’s about building a winner around him.