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  • The Brock Faber Extension Was A Smart Overpay


    Image courtesy of Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
    Tony Abbott

    If you want to, you can compare Brock Faber's new eight-year, $68 million deal to several questionable extensions the Minnesota Wild have handed out in recent years. For one, they paid sticker price, and maybe even a touch more. Evolving-Hockey projected Faber at a $7.74 million cap hit for an eight-year deal, almost a million lower than the $8.5 million Minnesota landed on.

    We also see some familiar timing traps that Bill Guerin's front office frequently falls into. They signed Faber at potentially the height of his value after finishing as the runner-up for the Calder Trophy, a major award. Minnesota didn't need to do this deal now. They could have waited a year and seen if Faber could repeat his rookie success. 

    Looking that over, the only real reaction I can make here is: Who cares?

    You don't mess around with a franchise cornerstone, and we have good reason to believe that Faber is just that. Even with an injury that hampered his play-driving ability in the second half of the season, Faber still finished with 3.4 Standings Points Above Replacement, per Evolving-Hockey, which tied for 33rd among NHL defensemen.

    Look at some of the names surrounding Faber in that category. Hello, Owen Power (3.5 SPAR), who signed a similar extension last season, which carries a $8.35 million cap hit. Hey, there, Filip Hronek (3.5 SPAR), Devon Toews (3.3 SPAR), and Dmitry Orlov (3.3 SPAR), who all make in the range of $7.25 to $7.75 million. It's not difficult to imagine that had he not broken his ribs, he'd have gotten to a level similar to, say, $9.5 million defenseman Charlie McAvoy (4.1 SPAR).

    Can he do it again? That's a big question because there is some cause for concern with him. The combination of playing injured, and playing with Jake Middleton, who also fought through injury, made Faber's overall numbers look human at season's end. However, the biggest concern is that his offensive play-driving may not be where you'd like it to be for an $8.5 million defenseman. His on-ice shooting percentage made it look like he drove scoring chances to a much greater degree than the data shows, which was true even earlier in the year.

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    There's also the matter of points. They're secondary to a defenseman's overall game, but like it or not, the NHL's economy rewards and judges players based on points. Faber came out of nowhere to score 47 points as a rookie, only six fewer than he had in his three seasons at the University of Minnesota. He'll likely run the power play next season, which should drive another high-scoring year.

    What happens after that? That's a question Minnesota might have to answer when Zeev Buium arrives. The Wild's top pick in the 2024 Draft is a natural power-play quarterback with exceptional vision and skating. You don't draft someone like Buium without envisioning handing him the reins to the power play. Even with second-unit time, Faber's points could slip without his play dipping.

    I can note those potential red flags, and I can see that $8.5 million cap hit extending into the first year of the Zendaya Administration. Still, all I can say is: Who cares?

    Faber's contract (probably) doesn't have the room for outright thievery that Matt Boldy's seven-year, $7 million AAV deal provides. As Buium takes over the prime scoring duties, the point totals might look a bit less like Drew Doughty and a little bit more like Jared Spurgeon. If that is the case, maybe the contract is considered an overpay.

    But here's the thing: If you're going to overpay someone, don't overpay the Middletons and Freddy Gaudreaus of the world. Break the bank for someone like Faber instead.

    Regardless of whether Faber winds up being a very good defenseman or a great defenseman, he will be someone who drives winning for the Wild. After seeing his first season plus playoff run, I feel extremely confident in pegging his absolute floor as a Jonas Brodin-level player. The same Brodin that's been a franchise cornerstone for 12 seasons in Minnesota.

    If that's what Faber ends up as -- a big-minute, defensive defenseman -- we're only talking about a $2.5 million increase on Brodin's contract in a league where the cap is finally going up. And that's a worst-case scenario. To focus on the worst-case scenario is to talk about Faber like he doesn't have upside, which is unfair and untrue. Faber's rookie year carries some extremely encouraging comparables.

    Since the Analytics Era started in 2007-08, 197 defensemen played 1,000 minutes in a season before turning 22. If we take those seasons and look at their SPAR per hour (to put everyone on an even footing), Faber's rookie year ranks 75th in that sample. What's his upside? Let's look at some players in that neighborhood.

    Aaron Ekblad, 2015-16 (age 19): 0.104 SPAR/60
    Jakob Chychrun, 2017-18 (age 19): 0.104 SPAR/60 
    Miro Heiskanen, 2018-19 (age 19): 0.104 SPAR/60
    Seth Jones, 2015-16 (age 21): 0.104 SPAR/60 
    Jared Spurgeon, 2011-12 (age 21): 0.102 SPAR/60
    Mikhail Sergachev, 2018-19 (age 20): 0.102 SPAR/60
    Zach Werenski, 2016-17 (age 19): 0.102 SPAR/60
    BROCK FABER, 2023-24 (age 21): 0.100 SPAR/60
    Owen Power, 2022-23 (age 20): 0.099 SPAR/60
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson, 2012-13 (age 21): 0.096 SPAR/60

    We're looking at comparables who were all top-pairing defensemen at some point in their careers. Look at this list and tell me whose career path would be a disappointment for Faber to follow. Maybe Jones? Maybe Ekman-Larsson, since he fell off sooner than anyone would expect?

    But if he's Heiskanen, Spurgeon, Ekblad, or Power (that is, what we think he can be), this contract is a home run, no? Even that next level down includes Chychrun, Sergachev, and Werenski. You'd have to take that and run with it.

    While the Wild signed Faber a year before they had to, his leverage probably wasn't going down much, barring a complete collapse. He'll still have that runner-up status for the Calder Trophy in his corner. Besides, who's coming through the door behind him to usurp him as a top-pairing defenseman?

    You can say Buium, but that's just for the top power play role. They play on different sides of the ice, so neither will take 5-on-5 time away from each other, whether they play on the same pairing or separately. There aren't any top-pairing right-shot defense prospects in the Wild's system. With all due respect to David Spacek and Jack Peart, the best versions of themselves should complement Faber, not displace him. Another Spurgeon isn't walking through that door, at least not in the foreseeable future.

    Faber will be a top-pairing, two-way defenseman with the upside to be the best defensive defenseman in the NHL. His smart, efficient game will make him a staple in Minnesota, and Buium's impending arrival should save him from the pressure of having to do it all, which Faber had to deal with after Spurgeon's injury. If that's technically worth $7 million, and the Wild are actually paying $8.5 million... again, who cares?

    It's great to get a steal on deals like Guerin got with Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek. But if that's not in the cards, those are the kinds of players you can live with "overpaying." The best teams in the NHL spring for their cornerstones, even if it's at a premium, and worry about the rest later. Minnesota has had this idea backward at times, but perhaps this will indicate a turnaround of their philosophy going forward.

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    I think Guerin believes he's getting Brock Strap at a bargain price as the Cap increases over next years and Brocker Top continues to get better.  I have less issue with this contract than a contract extension with NMC for a 32 year old middling forward who's clearly on the back nine.

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    Faber is only 21.  He could and likely will get significantly better.  In that scenario this contract is a steal.  If he gets overshadowed by Buium...well having two GREAT young defenseman sounds like a good problem to have.  To me this feels like Boldy 2.0 but it's up to Brock to prove it.

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    Looks like it ties him with Sergachev, a bit lower than top 12 in salary for D.

    Of course, a lot of lower contracts have not expired or been extended, so by the time he is playing under this contract, it could be closer to 25th in cap hit among NHL defensemen and there are certainly reasons to believe(like leading a team in TOI per game) he deserves to be paid as a top pairing defenseman.

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    2 hours ago, Paul Bunyan is Real said:

    Meanwhile, per Dom L on the Athletic Faber's projected value is 10.2mil AAV over the life of the contract. Seems like a pretty good hometown discount to me. 

    Dom's projections are always high...I think he projected Kaprizov to be like $16.5M.

    That said, Hein projected Faber to be at 8x$8.25 in Feb. I'm not quite sure where this 'overpay' narrative is coming from.

    With what we know today and what the market has done, this really feels pretty damn close to market rate for Faber.  Nobody's wondering what blackmail BillyG has, and nobody is accusing Brock of giving the team a hometown discount.

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    It'd be shocking if Faber doesn’t make substantially more than Sanderson, but given the team’s leverage, it doesn't feel like this extension will go much higher than $9.5 million. Either way, Brock Faber is about to get paid. 

    s

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    2 hours ago, Paul Bunyan is Real said:

    Faber's projected value is 10.2mil AAV over the life of the contract

    Agree this is a reasonable estimate. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that AAV value could end up being MUCH higher. 

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    Break the bank for someone like Faber instead.
    Exactly. And I never bought the bloggers at The Athletic suggesting the AAV would start with a 9.

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    Tony's take is a real good one on this. I think this is definitely within the range that makes this a solid contract. This might be the most important thing that Tony said:

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    With all due respect to David Spacek and Jack Peart, the best versions of themselves should complement Faber, not displace him. Another Spurgeon isn't walking through that door, at least not in the foreseeable future.

    This is exactly where we stand within our system and just the way I was thinking it would be. However, I'm also thinking that Buium is going to play his off side since our best prospects all happen to be lefties. Buium plays either side, I think he'll prefer the off side in the N. 

    It will be nice if a couple of defenders who we didn't count on making it, would. This would be a guy like Spacek, or a guy like Masters. Peart, Lambos are supposed to make it.

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    This contract is a steal.  If you think about it logically.  The Salary Cap is going up and probably will continue to go up throughout the term of the contract. 

    The contract does not start until next season.  And even with this contract going into next offseason the Wild will have 21 million to play with.  So this contract isn't going to effect much in the lines of signing people going forward.

    As he plays more and gets older he will be better.  By the end of this contract he will be valued vastly higher than 8.5 million per year and the contracts will all go up across the board do to the increased salary cap.  

    Now this could all go south with an injury or his play regresses.  But what we see right now of his play and the projected future of the league this contract is going to be a steal. 

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    I see him getting better next year.  It's not like his game is refined.  He was almost pure guts out there last season.  

    Heiskanen level?  Maybe not but certainly top end of that list Tony compiled.

     

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    Athletic notes on Wild getting significant cap relief from bad contracts for 25-26:

    Much of this mirrors some information I posted yesterday based upon a spreadsheet I put together using Puckpedia data, so I don't feel too bad copying much of the article.

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    Minnesota Wild

    Inefficient contracts expiring: Marcus Johansson ($2 million)

    Dead cap reduction: Zach Parise and Ryan Suter’s buyout cap hit shrinks from a combined $14.7 million to $1.66 million

    Projected cap space (assuming a $92 million cap ceiling): $19 million (15 players signed)

    2025 pending UFAs: Marc-Andre Fleury, Johansson, Declan Chisholm, Jon Merrill

    2025 pending RFAs: Marco Rossi, Marat Khusnutdinov, Jesper Wallstedt, Jakub Lauko

    Finally. After years of navigating a punitive cap penalty from the 2021 buyouts of Parise and Suter, the Wild will enter the 2025 offseason with some cap flexibility to wield. Most, if not all of the freed-up Parise/Suter buyout money will be devoted to raises for Brock Faber (his new $8.5 million AAV extension will kick in for 2025-26) and Marco Rossi, who’ll be an RFA next summer, but there will still be wiggle room left over for upgrades.

    AFP Analytics projects that Rossi will sign for just shy of $3.7 million annually on a two-year bridge deal, or for a $5.6 million cap hit on a six-year extension that would closely match Anton Lundell’s recent deal. This would leave Minnesota with approximately $13-15 million in space with 16 players signed. After that, Jesper Wallstedt and Marat Khusnutdinov should be cheap to re-sign as RFAs and top prospect Danila Yurov will likely sign his entry-level contract and join the Wild’s roster, too.

    From there, Minnesota will have plenty of money left over to land one or two impact players.

    I guessed at Rossi signing around $5M, and suspect that Khusnutdinov and Wallstedt could take up a few million combined on shorter term deals. They don't mention Buium, but I assume he would also be added by 25-26.

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