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  • Wild Are Weighing Themselves Down With Middle Class Bloat


    Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA Today Sports
    Tony Abbott

     

    What do newly-signed Yakov Trenin and newly extended Jake Middleton have in common with Marcus Foligno, Freddy Gaudreau, and Ryan Hartman? They're all perfectly fine NHL players who are perfectly able to succeed when in the correct role.

    What else do they have in common? The correct role for each of them (at least, on an elite team) is either in the bottom-six forwards or on the third defensive pair. The Minnesota Wild have also signed them through the 2026-27 season. All but Hartman are now under contract through the summer of 2028.

    These five role players are on the books for $16.05 million this upcoming season, a rate that rises to $17.95 million in the two following years. The $16.05 million represents about 18.2% of the current $88 million salary cap, and the $17.95 million comes out to be about 19.5% of the projected $92 million cap for 2025-26.

    When you allocate 18-19% of the salary cap to 21.7% of the roster, that doesn't sound too bad! Collectively, these players make less than their fair share of the roster. Unfortunately, that's not how NHL economics work. Look at the NHL's most successful teams and what they allocate for their depth players. It quickly becomes clear that the Wild are zagging while the smartest teams zig.

    The top teams set out to min-max their rosters, prioritizing star power, even at the expense of squeezing out the league's middle class. I'm not writing this out of disdain for role players. Instead, the fact that these "middle-class" players are easier to replace with cheaper, younger depth. If you aren't a top-six forward or a top-four defenseman, it's difficult to justify paying you $4 million when a kid on an ELC can do your job 80-90% as effectively.

    A world where a loyal member of an organization is unceremoniously phased out for cost-cutting is not a nice world! It's not the world that this hockey blogger would choose! However, it is the reality that the Players Association and league have negotiated. And in it, we have to look at these salaries in terms of how efficiently they utilize the team's resources.

    Use the Cup Champion Florida Panthers as a model, for example. They poured almost every dollar not nailed down into the top of the roster. Sergei Bobrovsky, Sasha Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Aaron Ekblad, and Sam Reinhart combined to make 52.1% of their salary cap. 

    Doing that forced them to get incredible bargains or fill their roster with cost-effective players. They knocked it out of the park on the bargain front. Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour, Evan Rodrigues, and Gustav Forsling added up to $17.76 million, less than the Wild will pay their "Five Guys" next year. Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($2.25M) and Niko Mikkola ($2.5M) were the only other players making between $2 and $5 million. 

    Florida's fivesome added up to 16.9 Standings Points Above Replacement last season. Compare that to 2.5 from Minnesota's "Five Guys" last year. As much as the Wild talk about down seasons from the likes of Hartman, Gaudreau, and Foligno, this fivesome was only worth 4.1 SPAR in 2022-23. 

    The Edmonton Oilers also min/maxed their roster, with their top seven players soaking up 56.5% of the cap. They didn't get the amount of home runs that Florida got from their middle-class players, aside from Evan Bouchard ($3.9M). Still, their middle-class bloat was minimal. Their middle class includes Bouchard and starting goalie Stuart Skinner ($2.6M), then Cody Ceci ($3.25M), Warren Foegele ($2.75), and Brett Kulak ($2.75). Not great, but at least they're few and cheap.

    Go down the line. The Dallas Stars had seven players in their middle-class bracket (adding up to $20.5 million). However, those players included Jake Oettinger, Joe Pavelski, Matt Duchene, and Mason Marchment. You'll take a starting goalie and 74 goals for that price any day, thank you very much.

    The New York Rangers round out the Conference Finalists. Who was in their middle class? Five players. Top-pairing defenseman K'Andre Miller ($3.872M), 28-goal, 57-point Alexis Lafrenière ($2.235M), Barclay Goodrow ($3.642M), Ryan Lindgren ($3M), and Kaapo Kakko ($2.1M). That's just under $15 million for their middle class, with two impact players in there, and even that was too expensive for New York. The Rangers dumped Goodrow to waivers to clear precious cap room. Sorry to the role players.

    While the "Five Guys" are the most egregious examples of middle-class bloat, they're far from the limit of its scope. Mats Zuccarello put up 63 points last season, granted, but is turning 37 before the season starts and will make $4.125 in two years. Minnesota didn't (couldn't?) trade Filip Gustavsson, who was a sub-.900 goalie last year and is making $3.75 million next season. Marc-Andre Fleury turns 40 in November and makes $2.5 million against the cap. Marcus Johansson scored just 11 goals and 30 points last year and comes at a $2 million cap hit next season.

    Add all that up, and that's nine middle-class guys coming in at $28.245 million. Fleury and Johansson come off the books after next season. Still, that's about 26% of the cap devoted to seven players who generally aren't moving the needle.

    That's not how the top teams do things. They pay the players they can't replace and replace the ones they can when they get too expensive. Minnesota did this once upon a time, developing the likes of Brandon Duhaime and Connor Dewar while bringing in cheaper, younger versions of Hartman, Gaudreau, and Middleton. 

    The cap is going up, and the Wild are about to get nearly $15 million of dead cap coming off the books. They also have talented prospects on ELCs. Therefore, they can afford luxuries; that's indisputable.

    But if you gave Florida or New York that flexibility to get luxuries they would (and did) spend it on bringing in stars like Tkachuk long-term. If you gave Dallas the ability to afford luxuries, they would (and did) spend it to bring in high-upside plays like Duchene and Marchment on the cheap. 

    What did the Wild splurge on with their future windfall? A handful of role players who will spend most of their deals playing on the third-and-fourth lines and pairings. Guerin must believe that these players, with their grit, jam, etc., are the key to bringing Minnesota where they want to go. He has to be right, or the Wild will find themselves with expensive anchors while the smart teams keep sailing past them.

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    Guerin brought in some large bodied depth signings after Trenin. I like the moves and hopefully it will motivate the kids to get stronger too. The theme was 6'3" 21X. Looks like Iowa's not getting pushed around next season! Many of these guys are in the mid 20s too, so not so far removed from the kids. 

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    The Wild have 56% of their cap wrapped up in 7 players for this year.  

    Two of those are the buyouts.  One is a huge question mark on injured reserve.  

    7.575 for Spurgeon is a huge problem after this year if doesn't play.  

    So, the dead cap hit this year is 14 million but could realistically be 21 million if Spurgeon doesn't come back. 

     

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    12 hours ago, Lovehockey said:

    3. the young players cannot take anyone spot not because they are bad but because GM will not be paying 2 + mil to players to be in AHL

    I disagree with this point...FreddyG's $2.1M or Mojo's $2M is a marginal, especially considering that $1.15 of it could be buried in the AHL to free up cap space.  Hell, if you had a stud in the wings, sit either of those guys in the pressbox if you don't want to risk waivers.  We had plenty of LTIR space last season, and nobody was able to grab that spot.

    The reality of the situation is that nobody from Iowa was going to put up 11 goals, and 19 apples like MoJo did last season.  The sad truth is that MoJo was here because he gave this team the best opportunity to win last season, not because his contract handcuffed the team.

    But for the sake of argument, which AHL player did you see last season capable of skating in a top 6 role based on their performance?  Letteri had 46 games last season, Luccini had 40, Shaw had 20, Beckman had 11, Petan had 6, Walker had 5, Raska had 4.  Please tell me which guy you thought was better than MoJo?

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    21 hours ago, Dean said:

    Another b s  offseason. 2 years of bs contracts handed out. He did nothing to get us past the better teams.  God for bid he buy some cap space with a legit trade , buy out some players like Jo Jo and Fred to get some cap space to sign a legit free agent.  F-ing do something to prove you know what you’re doing. He does none of it.  The only difference between Billy and fletcher is Fletcher overpaid and handcuffed himself to the top free agents everyone wanted. Billy overpays and handcuffs himself to guys no one cares about or wants.  Just like Dean isn’t the great coach Billy thinks. The rest of the league doesn’t think so. Just like the rest of the league doesn’t handcuff themselves to things they can get for nothing . Billy’s got a bunch of guys to trade for future considerations. Not value . 
       He and Judd have proven they don’t have a clue. Judd keeps drafting the same players . Guys to small and weak to make nhl. And Billy signs guys other teams don’t want. Ridiculous 

    Because nobody wants to come to Mn for various reasons. Tax, not desirable to come, not the brightest future etc.

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    16 hours ago, MacGyver said:

    I think Guerin is as polarizing across the league as he is on this board

    I think Guerin has also treated some players like crap, others like gold and players don't like the prospect of their treatment not being performance based. If you aren't a Guerin guy, you will have to put in twice the effort to get the recognition and put up with being put down in the media. 

    I don't think anyone is champing at the bit to play for him honestly. Yes, the winters and income tax might have something to do with it but if Edmonton can score free agents, so should Minnesota. 

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    13 hours ago, joebou15 said:

    Can anybody say they believe this team can beat any of the top 4 teams in a 7 game series?

    You can't. And for just this year, no one would fault you for thinking that. This team doesn't have the money to spend, nor do they have flexibility to bring in a major star for this season. But as Guerin tries to manage fan expectations, he's taking that carrot of future spending power and cap flexibility and pissing it away. Each one of these moves pushes that carrot out further.

    Some teams bring in an aging Steven Stamkos, or a Jonathon Marchessault. Others bring in Jack Eichel, or Brady Tkachuk.

    This is so ass backwards from any sort of typical rebuild, it's staggering. Any team with this kind of light at the end of the tunnel from self-inflicted salary wounds wouldn't be so eager to pour salt on it with lesser skilled players signed to multi-year deals with a premium price.

    Anyone worth playing in the bottom half of the lineup shouldn't have a contract longer than 2 years. 

    But what's worse is that on many of these deals Guerin is only outbidding himself. In my opinion, Middleton shouldn't have gotten 4 years. Zuccarello, Foligno, Hartman (to a degree) were all signed to contracts poorly executed by the GM.

    So next year, the year we've all been waiting for to have a fun, exciting team that has grown up their prospects with newfound money and flexibility to build a Stanley Cup winner is instead a team that's grown old again with almost none of that money or flexibility to enhance the roster.

    Is it about fucking winning yet?

    Completely agree 

     

    This team will never win a cup or even come close to it. They refuse to rebuild to get those elite players you need from the early first round, they have way too high taxes, they constantly draft small players (from picking in the mushy middle), they are a small market team with an arrogant GM that’s seems to be hard to work with. Other players are well informed about this team and their handicaps so the only players I see willing to go here are journeyman who are reaching the end of their career and want to cash in one more time. You can’t have that many handicaps and win a Stanley cup. It’s so ridiculously competitive. You have to have every aspect taken care of and as few holes as possible.

    I love Mn hockey but I just wish people would realize what I stated. So many ppl don’t want to admit this but is absolutely true.

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    13 hours ago, Protec said:

    Just don't see it that way. Last season WPG and NSH leap-frogged MN and Arizona had some good stretches. Vegas fell first round and Edmonton went nearly all the way. Nobody predicted that. 

    I wouldn't mind Marchesseault or Stamkos but with their age and AAV, the Wild can do without that trade-off. Seeing Buffalo or Dallas do buyouts on big money deals or cagey old vets, I am perfectly happy with the Wild keeping the cart behind the horse. 

    If Kaprizov wants to play in FL nothing is gonna stop him. MN wants him to stay obviously but a plan that works with or without him is in place. 

    People who rip Guerin a lot forget where the Wild were just 3-4 years ago and the mostly successful seasons since. Winningest GM in Wild history over any 5-year span and everyone thinks they know better. 

    They also had they winningest coach in Wild history. Where is he now? IMO, probably BG's biggest mistake. 

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    13 hours ago, Protec said:

    Just don't see it that way. Last season WPG and NSH leap-frogged MN and Arizona had some good stretches. Vegas fell first round and Edmonton went nearly all the way. Nobody predicted that. 

    I wouldn't mind Marchesseault or Stamkos but with their age and AAV, the Wild can do without that trade-off. Seeing Buffalo or Dallas do buyouts on big money deals or cagey old vets, I am perfectly happy with the Wild keeping the cart behind the horse. 

    If Kaprizov wants to play in FL nothing is gonna stop him. MN wants him to stay obviously but a plan that works with or without him is in place. 

    People who rip Guerin a lot forget where the Wild were just 3-4 years ago and the mostly successful seasons since. Winningest GM in Wild history over any 5-year span and everyone thinks they know better. 

    Russo has BG on Barriero's show today at 3. He said he's going to ask him what the plan actually is with this money being tied up in aging vets. That oughta be interesting.

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    12 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    But, here's the grind, for a young player getting his 1st big contract, these cities have way more excitement than the Twin Cities. The Twin Cities are set up as a good place to play hockey and raise a family. 

    I'll certainly give the non state tax states an advantage on that, plus they typically have better weather. But the far coasts have a lot going for them too. It's not my cup of tea, but it is some people's.

    Have you been paying attention to the news lately? Metro area is making national news on a regular basis and not in a good way.

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    2 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    Have you been paying attention to the news lately? Metro area is making national news on a regular basis and not in a good way.

    Willy, I'm out of market. I get like 0 news from MN or on the Metro area. I do get some national news, but any MN news has not been in my feeds. 

    So, what is going on that is not good?

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    3 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    He said he's going to ask him what the plan actually is with this money being tied up in aging vets.

    Prediction: Guerin’s response will begin with a veiled insult of Russo followed by something like “we have a plan and it’s working very well”…followed by more forced laughter

    Edited by Pewterschmidt
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    1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Willy, I'm out of market. I get like 0 news from MN or on the Metro area. I do get some national news, but any MN news has not been in my feeds. 

    So, what is going on that is not good?

    Just in the last, roughly, few months; 4 cops/1'st Responders murdered by felons after responding to calls that were setups. 1 cop has been persecuted and had murder charges brought against him for killing another felon resisting arrest and endangering lives. Those charges were rightfully and finally dropped because of public pressure to make the corrupt AG do 'the right' thing. Hundreds of millions of fraud in government programs with no one overseeing those programs held accountable. I could go on and on. It really is a shithole. 

    Sure players making the kind of money they do, can isolate themselves from that, but it sure isn't the kind of place I'd want to raise a family given the options they have.

    Bring it on peeps...

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    1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    Prediction: Guerin’s response will begin with a veiled insult of Russo followed by something like “we have a plan and it’s working very well”…followed by more forced laughter

    Ya, seems 'the plan' is flying by the seat of their pants.

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    35 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    Just in the last, roughly, few months; 4 cops/1'st Responders murdered by felons after responding to calls that were setups. 1 cop has been persecuted and had murder charges brought against him for killing another felon resisting arrest and endangering lives. Those charges were rightfully and finally dropped because of public pressure to make the corrupt AG do 'the right' thing. Hundreds of millions of fraud in government programs with no one overseeing those programs held accountable. I could go on and on. It really is a shithole. 

    Sure players making the kind of money they do, can isolate themselves from that, but it sure isn't the kind of place I'd want to raise a family given the options they have.

    Bring it on peeps...

    Gotta get dialed in at the Edina Country Club/Braemar scene. 🤪

    I didn't particularly like the new State flag being blended with the Somalian one, but hey that's just a given if you grew up safely in South Minneapolis or surrounding suburbs. 

    Sad for a lot of people what's happened.

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    11 minutes ago, Protec said:

    Gotta get dialed in at the Edina Country Club/Braemar scene. 🤪

    I didn't particularly like the new State flag being blended with the Somalian one, but hey that's just a given if you grew up safely in South Minneapolis or surrounding suburbs. 

    Sad for a lot of people what's happened.

    Exactly, I thought about mentioning, but decided against it, Ilhan's rally with the President of Somalia. Holy corruption Batman!!

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    29 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    I missed the Russo Guerin Barrero convo.  Does anyone know where to find that online?

    if it was on Barreros show, it would be on kfan  bumper to bumper podcast but most likely not posted right away  .

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    Just now, Pewterschmidt said:

    Thanks!!

    He sometimes has Lou Nanne on his show  , fun to hear what louie has to say on things .

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    On 7/2/2024 at 1:12 PM, FredJohnson said:

    Yeah I wonder what happened.


    Becoming more apparent by the day that Chychrun was unwilling to sign an extension with the Senators, the team can get out from under his contract while keeping their defensive structure in place. Chychrun will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season as the 26-year-old defenseman is approaching the end of a six-year, $27.6MM contract originally signed with the Arizona Coyotes.

    https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2024/07/senators-trade-jakob-chychrun-to-capitals.html#google_vignette

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    20 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    Just in the last, roughly, few months; 4 cops/1'st Responders murdered by felons after responding to calls that were setups. 1 cop has been persecuted and had murder charges brought against him for killing another felon resisting arrest and endangering lives. Those charges were rightfully and finally dropped because of public pressure to make the corrupt AG do 'the right' thing. Hundreds of millions of fraud in government programs with no one overseeing those programs held accountable. I could go on and on. It really is a shithole. 

    Sure players making the kind of money they do, can isolate themselves from that, but it sure isn't the kind of place I'd want to raise a family given the options they have.

    Bring it on peeps...

    None of that had crossed my national feeds. For the last couple of months, though, I've been in and out of media. This sounds like Minneapolis stuff, or Hennepin County. I would think that the players would live outside of the 494-694 loop. It may even be time for them to consider not going to Edina or Minnetonka and moving to the St. Paul side.

    I moved out 40 years ago this summer. I've returned to visit a few times. I can tell you that Minneapolis is unrecognizable. And, their values/attitudes do not reflect the time I was there. I still can't understand how an anti-American representative can get elected and re-elected from a district in MN? 

    The last thing I heard from MN was the Blue Earth County Dam in trouble, and to my knowledge, Mankato is still not part of the Metro area. Unfortunately, on a crime basis, it is Chicago, New York, Washington, and West Coast that has captured national attention in my news feeds, nothing in MN. I wonder if national feeds are more regional since we get stuff from Atlanta and Florida a lot? 

    As I remember it, though, if you live outside of the loop, you are insulated from much of the Minneapolis crime and insanity. That was one reason why I was so excited about the possibility of the Arden Hills stadium proposition that Hennepin County hijacked. Sure, there would have needed to be widening of 96 and 10, and probably Rice St., but I think it would have been a better location for an abandoned big piece of property. 35W and 694 were close and good enough to handle heavy game day traffic, maybe some exit widening was needed? 

     

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    Its all about trying to make the lite rail relevant.  put the stadiums near it and people might use it then they can justify having it  .  

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    On 7/3/2024 at 8:37 AM, MrCheatachu said:

    I disagree with this point...FreddyG's $2.1M or Mojo's $2M is a marginal, especially considering that $1.15 of it could be buried in the AHL to free up cap space.  Hell, if you had a stud in the wings, sit either of those guys in the pressbox if you don't want to risk waivers.  We had plenty of LTIR space last season, and nobody was able to grab that spot.

    The reality of the situation is that nobody from Iowa was going to put up 11 goals, and 19 apples like MoJo did last season.  The sad truth is that MoJo was here because he gave this team the best opportunity to win last season, not because his contract handcuffed the team.

    But for the sake of argument, which AHL player did you see last season capable of skating in a top 6 role based on their performance?  Letteri had 46 games last season, Luccini had 40, Shaw had 20, Beckman had 11, Petan had 6, Walker had 5, Raska had 4.  Please tell me which guy you thought was better than MoJo?

    1. The Danila Yurov who signed one year contract in Russia instead of coming to Wild. I think he did not want to pay  in AHL.

    2. will see what will happen with Ohren and Marat and 

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    On 7/2/2024 at 12:48 PM, Dean said:

    Another b s  offseason. 2 years of bs contracts handed out. He did nothing to get us past the better teams.  God for bid he buy some cap space with a legit trade , buy out some players like Jo Jo and Fred to get some cap space to sign a legit free agent.  F-ing do something to prove you know what you’re doing. He does none of it.  The only difference between Billy and fletcher is Fletcher overpaid and handcuffed himself to the top free agents everyone wanted. Billy overpays and handcuffs himself to guys no one cares about or wants.  Just like Dean isn’t the great coach Billy thinks. The rest of the league doesn’t think so. Just like the rest of the league doesn’t handcuff themselves to things they can get for nothing . Billy’s got a bunch of guys to trade for future considerations. Not value . 
       He and Judd have proven they don’t have a clue. Judd keeps drafting the same players . Guys to small and weak to make nhl. And Billy signs guys other teams don’t want. Ridiculous 

    "He and Judd have proven they don’t have a clue. "

    And you clearly do....

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