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  • What Does Success Mean For the Wild In 2023?


    Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika - USA TODAY Sports
    Brevan Bane

     

    You’ve heard it a million times. The Minnesota Wild will be up against the cap for the next two seasons. Therefore, young players need to fill significant roles to build a consistent winner.

    At this point, you can’t discuss the Wild without mentioning their temporary financial ruin and how they can overcome it. You can’t mention a single contract signing or extension without thinking of the Zach Parise or Ryan Suter buyouts. It seems to have gotten to the point where any signing that Bill Guerin makes looks good for a split-second before you dive into the details and value.  

    Oh, hey, how did Billy fit that money into the books?

    Minnesota is floating in precarious waters, with fans understanding their financial hindrances but still expecting winning hockey. The Wild have to try to win, given the talent on their roster, especially Matt Boldy and Kirill Kaprizov. Not only the pieces, but head coach Dean Evason needs to experience playoff success, which will reflect positively upon Bill Guerin’s team construction and continued belief in Evason. The Wild enter the year with high expectations and a lot of uncertainty. So, how will we know if they had a successful year?

    The definition of success is different for every NHL team. Any team that wins a championship has experienced success, but it is otherwise relative. For the Vegas Golden Knights, success would be defending the Stanley Cup as long as possible. For the Anaheim Ducks, success could be making the playoffs. The Chicago Blackhawks’ definition could be as specific as seeing Connor Bedard become a franchise player. 

    But success isn’t as clear-cut for the Wild as it may be for other teams.

    After six straight first-round exits, saying that making the playoffs alone would be a success would draw an eye-roll from just about any Wild fan. It may not be as bad as the Toronto Maple Leafs’ drought, which dates back to 2004 when Kirill Kaprizov was seven years old. However, it would be an understatement to say fans in the State of Hockey are "fed up" with continued playoff disappointment. 

    Even if Minnesota advances past the first round in an ultra-competitive Western Conference, it would feel pretty empty if they didn’t at least put up a fight in the second round. Such a build-up for a series win just to be bounced easily in the next round would probably even hurt more than just watching them lose in the first round like we’re accustomed to.

    A successful season realistically could be a first-round series win and a competitive second-round. However, considering the financial situation that prevented the Wild from making any big moves this year, it may not be as simple as that. And they’ll be in the same financial situation next year next season. However, the Wild have made it clear that they will try to win despite their cap situation, so we can hold them to that standard. For this season to be a success, they will have to do it while running it back with the team they largely had for the past two seasons, creating a predicament for Dean Evason.

    The Wild can’t sit in a tier below the best teams in the Western Conference forever. They win as many games as the best teams during the regular season, but their success hasn’t carried over to the postseason. That has been the theme under coach Dean Evason since they hired him in 2020. 

    Dean Evason has never put it together in the playoffs throughout his professional coaching career. He has lost four straight playoff series with the Wild. Not only has he been less than stellar in the NHL in playoff situations, but he’s gone 11-36 in playoff games in his minor league (1-12 in the AHL and 10-24 in the WHL) coaching career. Not only is winning a playoff series paramount for the Wild franchise and the state, but Evason can change his reputation for coaching teams that lose when it matters most. 

    Guerin walks in lockstep with Evason. Guerin has built the team that Evason is working with. He has created an excellent prospect pool while simultaneously icing a team that has won in the regular season. You could probably even say they should’ve won a series last season if it weren’t for some questionable personnel and game management.

    Less-than-stellar officiating also didn’t really help the cause, but every team arguably gets bad calls. Ultimately, Guerin may “only” build the team while Evason executes, but he’s also shown faith in Evason. At some point, that has to manifest in results on the ice.

    Winning in the playoffs also doesn’t hurt your chances of keeping your best player around. Kaprizov isn’t going to be in his mid-20s forever, nor will he voluntarily sign contracts with teams that don’t win in the postseason. He’s already played the short-term game to negotiate another huge contract while the Wild build around him. What would be his motivation if Minnesota has made no progress on winning in that time? 

    However, it goes both ways. Kaprizov has to produce more than one point to drive winning in the playoffs.

    Winning cures all. It makes general managers look like geniuses. People will forget about Evason’s playoff record, and Kaprizov is likelier to stay around. Most importantly, it keeps the fans happy, and the Wild should reward their fans’ loyalty. It would be cool to satisfy them by seeing Ryan Hartman chug some ice-cold beer out of Lord Stanley on their home ice. But Minnesota is unlikely to win it all this year, and that doesn’t mean they can’t have a successful season.

     

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    Expectations? Mine are a 100 pt. season, 3rd in the Central, 1st round playoff bounce. I'm also expecting an entertaining season and seeing Rossi develop into the player we thought he'd be when we drafted him. 

    I expect this to be Evason's last year at the helm and he'll be replaced following another sorry playoff series. I'm not sure who will take over, but I've got my eye on Mike Sullivan right now. I'm not sure he survives another year in Pittsburgh. I also believe that Sullivan coaches the style of play that Guerin wants to see.

    Edited by mnfaninnc
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    I don't believe we can measure success year by year as we have dealt with the salary cap as you stated and the first round exits staying competitive and not rebuilding, by choice of BG/CL.

    Our depth, injuries, puck luck, NHL playoff format, officiating, pick your poison yearly have impacted the WIld yearly.

    The Wild's success is measured over this salary cap hell period and not in wins and losses each year. I'm as frustrated as the next fan with what looks like a blockade to our prospects in resigning our vets.

    Truly we are looking at culmination of age and youth being infused for a perpetual run in the next two years, we need to keep reminding ourselves, patience. Even these contracts that were recently signed really extend two years before changes can be made. That coincides with much of our youth being developed and ready to crack a lineup.

    So to answer your question and not continue to belabor this point, our success is measured in the end of the duration of cap hell, patience with our prospects, developing an integration of talent. If this fails, then our measure of success is failure and we start over with a new coach, new GM and the vicious cycle continues.  

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    The bar is set high as it is so yeah if they can't win a playoff series then I don't think you can call it a truly successful season.  Still getting some development from the young guys that on this team would be nice outcome and winning games keeps the fans engaged.  Bottom line though is they need to win at least one playoff series otherwise nothing has changed.

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    What is success for the Wild.  Let's be honest.  The buyouts matter.  A cup run for this team, while possible, is highly unlikely.  So I would base my success meter on 2 things.

    1.  Regular season.  I love watching a competitive team fight and scrap their way every game. 

    2.  Make the playoffs and at least take the 1st round series to 7 games. 

    That for me is about the the best we can hope for in this cap hell.  Anything beyond that is gravy that I will really enjoy watching...and hoping for.

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    A highly competitive AHL team that is competing for the AHL title, and an NHL team that enters the playoffs with their top line, plus Boldy and JEE all healthy.

    If the Wild can show up to the playoffs healthy, we could see a much more competitive playoff performance.

     

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    Just saw that Yurov has 3 goals and 5 assists through 15 games this KHL season.

    I know he had limited minutes for his 6 goals and 6 assists in 59 games last year.

    I imagine he's getting a few more shifts per game this season, but I have not been able to find TOI. Nice to see him improving his points per game.

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    Success for this season is proving the Wild are going to be ready to go all-in once the buyouts expire.

    Guerin has clearly demonstrated his faith in the current lineup with the contract extensions, including not just the most recent three but for players like Gaudreau. Evason likewise seems committed to sticking to his guns. As such, my definition of success is winning in the playoffs, and not just a single series either. A single playoff series victory, while better than anything the Wild has done in years, could just be a fluke. Some solid play and a few lucky bounces. It won't be enough to convince me fully that the current operation of the team is the right one.

    If the Wild manage to win a second series, then I'll be the first to admit the current lineup has got some juice and Guerin and Evason have got some things figured out that I didn't understand. That would feel like a team that could make a real push to go all the way after the buyouts expire.

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    1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Just saw that Yurov has 3 goals and 5 assists through 15 games this KHL season.

    I know he had limited minutes for his 6 goals and 6 assists in 59 games last year.

    I imagine he's getting a few more shifts per game this season, but I have not been able to find TOI. Nice to see him improving his points per game.

    https://en.khl.ru/players/35727/

    The English version of the KHL website's search function doesn't seem to work, but using a regular web search you can still find the KHL player page. Yurov's TOI/game is currently 14:39.

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    These Suter and Parise contracts have been the bane of our existence for a long, long time now. As others have stated, we can't really expect a chance at a cup run until those contracts expire and Guerin gets a clean slate with all of the cap space at his disposal. That being said, even though we are building for a post Parise/Suter future, we still have the makings of a solid core here. In my opinion, so long as we keep showing some post-season development and progress I would consider that a successful season. We need to keep giving our younger developing guys post-season reps so that they are consistently familiar with that environment. Getting out of the first round I would guess is our ceiling, our floor would be being a contentious team all year and just missing the playoffs. I also think this is a "make-or-break" year for Evason, he's had decent success here and has managed to stick around as a Fenton appointee, but I feel like it's time he showed us if he can take this team to another post-season level.

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    40 minutes ago, Velgey said:

    https://en.khl.ru/players/35727/

    The English version of the KHL website's search function doesn't seem to work, but using a regular web search you can still find the KHL player page. Yurov's TOI/game is currently 14:39.

    More to follow......... Marat Khusnutdinov sent to HC Sochi from SKA in a trade. Get ready for sum "Dino" in 2024!

     

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    Not interest in trivial, superficial, regular season success. Either compete for something meaningful, or rebuild.

    Everyone is so scared of losing Kaprisov.   Why would toiling in mediocrity and getting whipped in the first round of the playoffs annually keep him here?  He’s going to go somewhere he can get paid AND have a chance at a Cup AND play on a line with elite talent.  The longer he’s centered by guys like Ryan Hartman and watching the team captain get obliterated on the playoffs, the more likely he is to leave.

    Squeaking into the playoffs and getting easily discarded out like trash doesn’t even remotely resemble “success.”  This is supposed to be the State of Hockey, for crying out loud.  Who cares about “enjoying” a couple meaningless regular season games.

    Look at what we’ve become.  It’s gross.

     

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    10 minutes ago, Protec said:

    It's never as bad as some of you guys think. 31 teams don't win every year.

    The Wild lost to the team that finished 3rd closest to the cup, and people act like they are a bottom half team just getting lucky.

    Dallas had a better healthy roster last year. The Stars have a top 8 goalie, and a top 5 defense, finishing 3rd in goals against average last season. They also had a top 8 offense. They also led the league in Faceoff%. Other than Vegas, no team was really closer to hoisting the Stanley Cup than the Dallas Stars last season. Vegas was the best in the West.

    Losing to that Stars team, regardless of the round, doesn't mean the Wild had a bad roster/season. They were injured entering the playoffs and pushed Dallas to 6 games.

    Florida won 1 game of the Finals, in OT, and got destroyed in a few others. Dallas gave Vegas their toughest opposition throughout the playoffs. The Stars seemed to be almost evenly matched with Vegas for the first 5 games. Those first 2 games went to OT and if the Stars took one of them, they might have ended up pushing that series to 7 games or winning it all.

    The Wild probably aren't going to be a top 5 team in the next 2 years, but they may be able to compete with those teams when the Wild are at full strength.

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    50 minutes ago, Beast said:

    Not interest in trivial, superficial, regular season success. Either compete for something meaningful, or rebuild.

    I get it.  The quest for the cup is the goal.  But like many on this board and probably yourself included... I've played hockey and fully understand how difficult this sport truly is to play.  I'm a huge fan of watching just about any hockey game anywhere and really appreciate just how good these players are and the sacrifices they make each and every game to block shots and grind it out all while making incredible magic with the puck.  There is a certain amount of respect that I have for the players and the time they must have spent to achieve this level of skill.  So when I get a chance to watch live or on TV I enjoy it.  I enjoy the regular season games as much as the playoffs.

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    54 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    I get it.  The quest for the cup is the goal.  But like many on this board and probably yourself included... I've played hockey and fully understand how difficult this sport truly is to play.  I'm a huge fan of watching just about any hockey game anywhere and really appreciate just how good these players are and the sacrifices they make each and every game to block shots and grind it out all while making incredible magic with the puck.  There is a certain amount of respect that I have for the players and the time they must have spent to achieve this level of skill.  So when I get a chance to watch live or on TV I enjoy it.  I enjoy the regular season games as much as the playoffs.

    Absolutely!

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    8 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

    If this fails, then our measure of success is failure and we start over with a new coach, new GM and the vicious cycle continues.  

    I'd have to believe that the coach goes. It seems like Shooter has bought himself time with the owner and the playoff showings. His teams have overproduced from paper. I'm thinking one reason Evason is still around is that the right coach hasn't been available yet. 

    Every coach firing is a 2 step process. You can't just get mad at the coach and fire him, there needs to be a viable replacement that will be better. For this team and the way Shooter wants the style of play to be, I don't think the replacement part has been there. Also, with the success Evason has had in getting to the playoffs with an overperforming team, he's earned a shot to keep going.

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    8 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Expectations? Mine are a 100 pt. season, 3rd in the Central, 1st round playoff bounce. I'm also expecting an entertaining season and seeing Rossi develop into the player we thought he'd be when we drafted him. 

    I expect this to be Evason's last year at the helm and he'll be replaced following another sorry playoff series. I'm not sure who will take over, but I've got my eye on Mike Sullivan right now. I'm not sure he survives another year in Pittsburgh. I also believe that Sullivan coaches the style of play that Guerin wants to see.

    I have to say that you are just about exactly where I am at. I have my eye on the continuing health of the Wild's roster. Players with age on them can have some long lingering injuries. BG better get some extra cap room as i think he will need it. 

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    4 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I'd have to believe that the coach goes. It seems like Shooter has bought himself time with the owner and the playoff showings. His teams have overproduced from paper. I'm thinking one reason Evason is still around is that the right coach hasn't been available yet. 

    Every coach firing is a 2 step process. You can't just get mad at the coach and fire him, there needs to be a viable replacement that will be better. For this team and the way Shooter wants the style of play to be, I don't think the replacement part has been there. Also, with the success Evason has had in getting to the playoffs with an overperforming team, he's earned a shot to keep going.

    I still believe our next coach is in IA, (Brett McLean) a younger coach, who will be with the next generation of Wild players, coaching them, able to relate to them and join them in two years!

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    4 hours ago, Beast said:

    Not interest in trivial, superficial, regular season success. Either compete for something meaningful, or rebuild.

    Beast, I believe the rebuild is over. I believe it was signaled over when we took 3 centers this past draft. That was the last place where we lacked depth. Many are asking, where is our #1D? Well, with the guys we've drafted, if some work out, we can do this by committee and throw out shift after shift of top 4 guys. I'm not so sure we need that guy if we can get it done with constant shifts. 

    I'm thinking a Faber-Lambos pairing will end up being really good. I'm also thinking a Spacek-Hunt pairing might be pretty good too. It'll be interesting to see Masters and Spacek battle it out in the A. Then, of course, we still have Brodin and maybe Spurgeon.

    While these defenders are still RFAs, we should get a price break on them. But, with the influx of these guys, while they possess excellent skating and puck moving ability, they also have size, not heavyweight size, but upper middleweight where they will be able to physically defend. 

    Now it's about developing the prospects and adding a piece or 2. That means keeping our 1st and 2nd picks. 

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    4 hours ago, Protec said:

    It's never as bad as some of you guys think. 31 teams don't win every year.

    and 16 don't get invited to the playoffs. For some of those it's been a long time since they've been invited. They might want to check and see if their contact information is up to date?

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    1 minute ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Beast, I believe the rebuild is over. I believe it was signaled over when we took 3 centers this past draft. That was the last place where we lacked depth. Many are asking, where is our #1D? Well, with the guys we've drafted, if some work out, we can do this by committee and throw out shift after shift of top 4 guys. I'm not so sure we need that guy if we can get it done with constant shifts. 

    I'm thinking a Faber-Lambos pairing will end up being really good. I'm also thinking a Spacek-Hunt pairing might be pretty good too. It'll be interesting to see Masters and Spacek battle it out in the A. Then, of course, we still have Brodin and maybe Spurgeon.

    While these defenders are still RFAs, we should get a price break on them. But, with the influx of these guys, while they possess excellent skating and puck moving ability, they also have size, not heavyweight size, but upper middleweight where they will be able to physically defend. 

    Now it's about developing the prospects and adding a piece or 2. That means keeping our 1st and 2nd picks. 

    AND, we get a preview in IA, this year to watch them go to work with Da' 🧱🧱🧱 WALL! 

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    21 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

    I have to say that you are just about exactly where I am at. I have my eye on the continuing health of the Wild's roster. Players with age on them can have some long lingering injuries. BG better get some extra cap room as i think he will need it. 

    I was thinking the question only pertained to the big club. But, the suggestion of a dominant, Calder Cup challenging A team sounded like it needed to be added to my list. And, I'd say, if you want to get noticed, still be playing hockey when the big club is finished!

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    6 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

    AND, we get a preview in IA, this year to watch them go to work with Da' 🧱🧱🧱 WALL! 

    I was going to watch some extra KHL this season and try to follow Yurov, Firstov and Dino. ESPN+ discontinued their coverage of the K this season. Very disappointing. 

    It would be nice if they'd replace it with the A!

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    5 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I was going to watch some extra KHL this season and try to follow Yurov, Firstov and Dino. ESPN+ discontinued their coverage of the K this season. Very disappointing. 

    It would be nice if they'd replace it with the A!

    $45 and it can be yours for the season IA Wild. I've subscribed the last two years, worth then and even more worth it this year!  🏒...🥅   😎

    https://www.watchtheahl.com/#/

    Edited by vonlonster67
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