By Neil Urbanski -
For the first time since Zachary L'Heureux slew-footed Jared Spurgeon on January 2, the Minnesota Wild had a fully healthy defensive corps for their showdown against the Boston Bruins on Tuesday night.
But with Brodin’s return, the Wild finally have the luxury of deploying their defensemen however they’d like. They have eight to choose from, but Travis Dermott seems destined for the waiver wire. That would leave the Wild with the seven defensemen who made the team out of training camp: Spurgeon, Brodin, Brock Faber, Jacob Middleton, Declan Chisholm, Jon Merrill, and Zach Bogosian.
As the season heads into the backstretch and teams begin ramping up for the playoffs, the Wild must effectively structure their defensive corps to compete with the top teams in the Western Conference. While Wild fans are drooling over the possibility of prized prospect Zeev Buium joining the team for a playoff run, any talk of that happening is merely conjecture.
The Wild have used 14 different defensive pairs for at least 30 minutes of five-on-five gameplay this season, shown below from most to least used:
*Data from Natural Stat Trick
While the three most frequently-used pairings (Middleton-Faber, Spurgeon-Chisholm, and Bogosian-Merrill) feature one right and one left-handed player, none feature Brodin. The smooth-skating Swede has missed 22 of Minnesota’s 53 games due to injury. That said, the Wild have most frequently deployed Brodin as part of a right-left duo.
The Wild have a diverse mix of attributes among their seven chosen defensemen, allowing them to mix and match depending on matchups or roster availability. Still, finding three steady pairings that John Hynes can write into the lineup card every night would provide significant stability for the team. It would also afford goaltenders Filip Gustavsson and Marc-André Fleury some predictability as they anticipate shots and read plays behind the same lineup nightly.
Ideally, a contending team can ice a mobile, reliable shutdown pairing that can be deployed against the opposing team’s top line each night. It’s also essential for this pairing to have enough puck-moving ability to consistently turn loose pucks and turnovers into changes of possession that force those top lines to retreat and defend.
The Wild seem to have already settled on Brodin and Spurgeon, a duo that fits the bill perfectly. In the 161 minutes of hockey the two have played together this season, they’ve been primarily matched against each team’s best players. Despite that, they’ve produced a 67.95% expected goals percentage (and an actual goals percentage of 66.67%), which is the best mark in the NHL for pairs that have played at least 100 minutes. The league average for such pairings is 49.13%. Combined with elite two-way center Joel Eriksson Ek, Brodin, and Spurgeon can control play against anyone in the NHL.
Brodin is the ideal shutdown defenseman and has proved it by dominating against the league’s top player, Connor McDavid. According to Natural Stat Trick, when Brodin is on the ice with McDavid over the past three seasons, Minnesota has outshot the Edmonton Oilers 39 to 23. Meanwhile, Edmonton has outscored the Wild 4-3.
Against Nathan MacKinnon, who many consider the second-best player in the NHL, Brodin and the Wild have been even in shots with 44 apiece. In that time, the Wild have outscored their division rival 6-2.
That is not a typo.
Brodin uses his superb skating, edgework, and anticipation to control the flow of play and frustrate the league’s top players. It’s tantalizing to think how that might unfold over a seven-game series.
The 5-foot-9, 166 lbs. Spurgeon is a master of body positioning and anticipation, and these tools make him the perfect player to read off of Brodin to further suffocate the opposition. The stats from the past three seasons also suggest this. Minnesota has outshot and outscored McDavid (33-22 and 3-2) and MacKinnon (19-18 and 1-0) with Spurgeon on the ice.
With the first pair settled, the Wild can deploy complementary second and third pairs that can play different styles. They should pair Faber and Chisholm on the second pair and use Middleton with Merrill or Bogosian on the third.
Middleton has enjoyed a strong season thus far, but his play has slipped lately. It’s probably a sign of regression after a run of sustained good fortune. Per MoneyPuck, Middleton’s expected goals percentage thus far is -0.5%, while his actual goal differential is +10.
When a player outperforms their expected metrics by that much, some regression is expected, and that’s been visible over the past month. Middleton’s isolated performance has slowly dipped after a strong run of play to start the season.
Still, Middleton is a solid player and would slot in nicely as a featured piece of an elite third pair. Merrill or Bogosian would complement his decent mobility and ability to make timely attacks when joining the rush in transition.
Merrill has quietly had a strong season thus far. He plays a conservative, heady style, producing strong underlying results for the depth defenseman. The duo has been solid when he’s been deployed with Middleton. The Wild have outscored opponents 5-3 with them on the ice and had an expected goals percentage of 60.3%. Furthermore, both are 6-foot-3 and capable of withstanding heavy forechecking and winning puck battles in the corners.
Bogosian and Middleton have not been as effective. They’ve outscored opponents 5-4 but had only 47.33% expected goals. Still, Bogosian brings some versatility as a righty. He also possesses a heavy shot that can strike fear into opponents and buy some space high in the offensive zone.
Putting Faber and Chisholm together would be an ideal second pairing with enough versatility to defend and attack against various play styles. Ideally deployed against the opposition’s second and third lines, they can use their elite skating to move themselves out of trouble and control possession. They can keep forecheckers on their heels because of their ability to skate pucks out of the zone and counter quickly after corralling loose pucks or turnovers.
In the 43 minutes Faber and Chisholm have played together, the Wild have had a 52.63% expected goals percentage and outshot opponents 25-24. Opponents have outscored them 3-0, but the stats suggest that might turn around with time. Furthermore, neither player has had the strongest output lately when the Wild have deployed them with different partners. Solidifying them as a pair would allow them time to discover how to capitalize on their complementary skills.
Faber and Chisholm are strong skaters and puck movers. Chisholm has more natural offensive instincts and has been increasingly improving as a defender, even if he leaves something to be desired in this area. Faber is an intelligent player who excels at everything. His size and ability to play a variety of styles mean he can provide a steadying presence defensively and combine with Chisholm in the offensive zone to interchange up high to create shooting lanes, move pucks high-to-low and laterally, and give opposing wingers nightmares.
Brodin is back, and the Wild’s defense is finally whole. With the pieces in the right place, it can be versatile enough to match up well against anyone. A regular lineup with pairings of Spurgeon-Brodin, Faber-Chisholm, and Middleton-Merrill/Bogosian gives the team its best chance at playoff success.
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