We Are In the Minnesota Wild's Metapod Era

Last year, the Minnesota Wild's motto was "Choose Your Hard." We don't know what their motto is this year, but "Choose Your Harden" is as good a guess as any. 

That's a Pokémon joke, so let's explain that real quick. Pokémon evolve into stronger forms throughout the games, and Caterpie might be one of the first monsters you evolve in the first game. Caterpie is what it sounds like: a caterpillar. Before it can evolve into a Butterfree* (you guessed it: A butterfly), it has to pass through its cocoon stage as a Metapod.

Metapod is weak, ugly, and effectively useless. It learns one move: Harden, a passive move that does no damage. This is hilariously (when you're eight in 1998, at least) portrayed in the Pokémon anime, when Ash engages in a Metapod-on-Metapod stalemate.

It's a duel only slightly less frustrating than watching the Wild this past month.

Minnesota entered the season hoping they were a Butterfree. With Kirill Kaprizov locked up for the next eight years and the worst of their dead cap from the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyouts shed, they could spread their wings and enter true playoff contention.

We're 12 games in, and it's clear that's not the case. The Wild are 3-6-3 on the season and are sliding through a disastrous six-game homestand with a 0-2-2 record. As November 1 approaches, Minnesota is hardening in its position at the bottom of the Central. They're not very effective, using Struggle, and hurting itself in their confusion. According to The Athletic, Bill Guerin isn't likely to trade for some Rare Candy to inject a boost of experience for this club.

It feels dire now, and Bill Guerin, John Hynes, and the players have got to be feeling some heat with the expectations they've set for themselves. But while being a Metapod feels like purgatory, it's also a necessary step of the process, both in Pokémon and in hockey.

The Wild might have made the postseason for 11 of the past 13 seasons, but they're the Caterpies of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They've won two playoff series in that time, and two is also the number of games they've won in the second round and beyond. You're not making it to the Elite Four, let alone beating them, when you're a Caterpie.

It sucks being Metapod, but it's at least a bridge to something else. And the Wild at least theoretically have the raw materials they need to emerge from their chrysalis as a contender. 

Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi, and Brock Faber are already forming a solid core to build around. Zeev Buium is a dynamic rookie defenseman with incredible offensive skills, just waiting to be harnessed.

David Jiříček might be a project whose limited to sheltered minutes, but he's also full of potential. Danila Yurov is acclimating himself to the league and should have a long career as a two-way forward. Liam Öhgren should eventually get a shot to show he can harness the assertiveness he's displaying in the AHL to Grand Casino Arena. Jesper Wallstedt has occasionally stood tall in net.

It's easy to focus on the kids' role in the Wild's struggles, and that's not entirely wrong. Are these players making a major, consistent impact? No. Do they all have flaws, warts, and weaknesses early in their careers? Absolutely. Have they been on the wrong end of bad plays? Indeed.

But Minnesota's issues aren't just with the young core that's forming inside the cocoon. If the Wild miscalculated, it's here: Going from a Metapod to a Butterfree isn't just about growing something. It's about shedding something, too.

This is a nature thing, not just a Pokémon phenomenon: The shell gets left behind. It's dead, a husk, and it would only inhibit the flight of the butterfly. But the Wild aren't just leaving their shell on; they've glued themselves to it for the foreseeable future.

We can forgive the Wild for having Jared Spurgeon on the books, despite his massive struggles this year (minus-1.2 Standings Points Above Replacement, per Evolving-Hockey). He's in Year 6 of his seven-year deal he signed back in 2019. No successor was coming at the time for his spot in the lineup, because Brock Faber was a year away from even being drafted. That stuff happens.

However, the long-term contracts signed for players who had successors in place are tougher to let slide. Two of the biggest culprits in the Wild's season are Jake Middleton (minus-0.9 SPAR) and Marcus Foligno (minus 0.8 SPAR).

Both of those deals were questionable on the day they were signed for their lack of long-term upside. But Minnesota inked Middleton days after drafting Buium and Foligno, despite the Wild system being full of highly touted forwards. Both of them signed long-term deals with restrictive trade protections.

There's no cocoon to shed. That's fine when the players are performing -- Foligno had a strong season in 2024-25, for example -- but when they aren't, they trap a team in a Metapod state.

What's done is done with the contracts, and we might be weeks away from saying "What's done is done" about the Wild's 2025-26 season. At that point, the best path to evolution might be for the Wild to embrace their Metapodness. Give Buium, Jiříček, Yurov, Öhgren, and Wallstedt their reps, their experience points, and hope they can grind out enough battles to level up.

Will they be able to do that, though? Guerin probably has the rope to see his five-year plan through, but Hynes probably doesn't. Good things generally don't happen to coaches of underperforming teams, and that incentivizes them to squeeze every last point out of their veterans at the expense of development. And in fairness, fans aren't going to pack the building to watch a Metapod. We're already seeing that dynamic play out. Call me when they can put a Butterfree on the ice**.

There's still a little bit of time to prove otherwise, but not much before we can safely assume that the Wild are in their Metapod Era. They're fighting it right now, and they might be able to speed up the evolutionary process. But with every loss, it's becoming harder and harder to see this team doing anything but using Harden. If this keeps up, the Wild will have to accept this reality and act accordingly.

*Yes, I'm aware that the better metaphor for a winning team would be a Pupitar, a similarly weak middle evolution that evolves into Tyranitar, a much stronger and more competitive Pokémon than Butterfree. I gotta keep it simple for the people who haven't engaged with Pokémon since they Pokémon Go'd To the Polls in 2016.

**Yes, I'm aware that this would be bad for a Butterfree, which is two-times weak to Ice-type moves.