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  • The Wild Should Target Mitch Marner In A Blockbuster Trade


    Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports
    Kalisha Turnipseed

     

    It's time for the Minnesota Wild to add another superstar. Kirill Kaprizov isn't enough to help the Wild get over the playoff hump, especially playing in an elite Central Division and Western Conference. Minnesota is too dependent on its prospect pool to drive to win. However, prospects take time to adjust to the NHL and may not make an impact soon enough to keep Kaprizov in Minnesota after his contract expires. Kaprizov is the Wild’s franchise player, and they need to keep him here. 

    Mitch Marner is a star player for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but Auston Matthews is their franchise cornerstone. It would likely take a lot for Toronto to move Marner, but they may trade him if a team presents the right offer. Like the Wild, the Leafs are looking for answers to why they've endured playoff disappointments. 

    Marner will become an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) in 2025-26 and likely cash in on his next extension. It’s unlikely that the Leafs would change one of their cornerstones, but they also must consider their cap situation. Therefore, the Wild need to be aggressive and enter the Marner sweepstakes. 

    Marner has a No-Movement Clause (NMC) that prevents the Leafs and Wild from making a trade. However, the Wild may get Marner to waive his NMC. Let's use Matthew Tkachuk as a comparison trade example for Marner. 

    Tkachuk was enduring first-round exits with the Calgary Flames and was uncommitted to Calgary. Therefore, the Flames traded Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers for Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, Cole Schwindt, and a conditional first-round pick in 2025. The Panthers are contenders, and Tkachuk has been an excellent cornerstone for Florida alongside Aleksander Barkov. Kaprizov and Marner can duplicate the star combination of Tkachuk and Barkov. 

    How can the Wild bring in Marner? It will start with trading Matt Boldy, opening up cap space to extend Marner. Boldy represents Huberdeau in this case. Boldy's been a pleasant surprise for the Wild as part of their core four, but he's not a superstar with experience like Marner. Can Boldy become a superstar someday? Maybe, but he isn’t yet. Marner can replace Boldy's skillset. While Marner doesn't have Boldy's size, he's more skilled and a game-breaking player. 

    The Wild should move Riley Heidt, who represents Schwindt as a top prospect. Danila Yurov is untouchable because he’s producing against professionals in Russia. Experts don’t project Heidt to be a 100-point scorer, but seeing him as a top-six talent in the NHL is not unreasonable. Marner has a 100-point upside since Kaprizov is a proven 100-point scorer. Marner would complement Kaprizov more immediately than any prospect. 

    To continue moving cap space, the Wild should have Frederick Gaudreau waive his Modified No-Trade Clause (M-NTC). That should create around $9.1 million of cleared cap space to extend Marner. Gaudreau would thrive as Toronto’s fourth-line center. The Wild should also look into moving Declan Chisholm as someone who can fulfill depth purposes on the blueline behind Morgan Reilly. Chisholm won't be expensive to extend, but Minnesota needs to save money to extend Brock Faber because he’s becoming their best defenseman. 

    The Wild can likely complete the trade by moving a conditional first-round pick in 2025, much like the Panthers did for Tkachuk. The terms are that it becomes a first if Minnesota reaches the Western Conference Finals. If not, it becomes a second. General manager Brad Treliving can live with knowing he's getting a potential first, Boldy, Heidt, and Chisholm. The Wild also moved Gaudreau's contract for a superstar, which is sweet. 

    Marner will excel playing on the top line with Kaprizov, where they can create scoring magic. Pairing them would allow Joel Eriksson Ek to be an effective two-way center playing with two high-end producers. They become the 2015 draft line, capable of doing damage offensively at even strength and on the power play, which is what the Wild desperately lack. 

    Marner would give the Wild a lethal top power-play unit. Marner is a better playmaker than Mats Zuccarello. Marner will be able to set up Kaprizov a lot for goals. However, Marner can also finish. 

    Marner won't waive his clause unless he’s more likely to get a contract extension with a new team. The cap will open up in 2025-26 for the Wild, allowing Guerin to take advantage of pursuing Marner. Matthews signed a four-year extension worth $53 million ($13.25 million AAV) with the Leafs instead of signing a long-term deal. Could this spell the end of the Matthews era in Toronto? If so, Marner may not be staying much longer. 

    Should the Wild consider offering Marner a seven-year extension worth anywhere from $12.75 million to $13 million AAV? Marner has leverage due to his NMC. He isn't moving unless he's got a favorable long-term contract. If the Wild can offer Marner an extension close to what Matthews is making, then Marner will likely consider waiving it. 

    Marner has been productive in the playoffs despite the Leafs facing early-round eliminations. Marner has scored 50 points in 57 career playoff games, which is close enough to a point-per-game. That would give the Wild primary scoring when they need it the most alongside Kaprizov. 

    Adding Marner would help Eriksson Ek's production. Eriksson Ek always came up short regarding winning the Selke trophy. If Eriksson Ek plays with Kaprizov and Marner all year, he'll reach point-per-game production, including scoring 40 goals. Eriksson Ek is the perfect center to bring out the best in Kaprizov and Marner. 

    The Wild are building around their superstar, Kaprizov, by adding another superstar to help take the load off Kaprizov. Marner will be motivated to help the Wild get over the hump. A change of scenery will be good for Marner to learn about the hockey culture in Minnesota, and Kaprizov is pleased with the addition of Marner. 

     

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    18 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

    At a time when Guerin should be patting Rossi on the back and encouraging him he is instead throwing him out there as trade bait. This has to be a wtf moment for Rossi. Every team out there is fully aware of the Wild's cap problems and no one is going to overpay for anyone the Wild wants to trade. That's what Guerin is hoping for.  I'm hoping Rossi puts up 40 next year and then tells Guerin he wants out and won't sign an extension.  

    What's the difference then whether he's traded now or later.

    I think too many people look at it the wrong way. Trading a good player for a better player isn't the point. Neither is it the point, that MN is giving up on Rossi. The point is that MN selected him as the best available in 2020. A lot has happened since.

    Now the Wild need upgrades all over the place, short on cap, and planning around 2024 scenarios VS. 2020 scenarios.

    l don't think there's anything wrong with trying to improve the Wild whatever the cost. If the team is improved overall and the cost is a good young player, that's fine the Wild have some. If the team is improved overall by trading out an expensive veteran, go for it. That money could be well allocated to proven UFAs. For me, its just that simple.

    The core in 2020 had Spurge and the Wild needed good centers badly. Four years later, Spurgeon might still be a core guy and centers are a little less critical with Ek being very good now.(In fact scoring big goals for Sweden along with NoJo somehow, beating USA at Worlds.) MN still needs a top center but would you rather have Rossi fill that role or Chandler Stephenson? Would you rather have Rossi fill that role, or go big and try to get Brady Tkachuk? It's pretty clear either of those two would be more effective in the Western Conference than Rossi. Can MN afford to wait and see with their youth forever? Honest question, what if MN just hopes it happens holding out with current guys?

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    1 hour ago, MacGyver said:

    At a time when Guerin should be patting Rossi on the back and encouraging him he is instead throwing him out there as trade bait. This has to be a wtf moment for Rossi. Every team out there is fully aware of the Wild's cap problems and no one is going to overpay for anyone the Wild wants to trade. That's what Guerin is hoping for.  I'm hoping Rossi puts up 40 next year and then tells Guerin he wants out and won't sign an extension.  

    Russo reported that the Wild are not putting Rossi out there for trades but are listening to offers on a number of players including Rossi.

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    1 hour ago, Up North Guy said:

    Russo reported that the Wild are not putting Rossi out there for trades but are listening to offers on a number of players including Rossi.

    Russo was giving himself a ton of credit for breaking this Rossi story (like he does).  Now it seems he’s walking it back.  Ok Michael, now tell me a story about your fight with the Starbucks barista. 
    #russohottake

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    Boldy/Ek/Kaprizov looked great together. What they need is more scoring depth beyond that line. This issue might already be fixed if they're willing to play the waiting game with Heidt, Ohgren, Yurov, and Haight. 

    I'm not fully against trading for Marner, but Boldy is untouchable in my opinion. I would prefer something like Spurgeon, Heidt, and Gus for Marner. Spurgeon is only listed to offset Marner's $10M cap hit. No way I would give up Heidt AND Boldy for Marner. 

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    18 hours ago, wildtwins said:

    Boldy/Ek/Kaprizov looked great together. What they need is more scoring depth beyond that line. This issue might already be fixed if they're willing to play the waiting game with Heidt, Ohgren, Yurov, and Haight. 

    I'm not fully against trading for Marner, but Boldy is untouchable in my opinion. I would prefer something like Spurgeon, Heidt, and Gus for Marner. Spurgeon is only listed to offset Marner's $10M cap hit. No way I would give up Heidt AND Boldy for Marner. 

    In concept I think you're right. Marner would not be my pick. Boone Jenner for the last year of his deal. Necas perhaps but that's not my favorite. Brock Nelson maybe, but the Wild shouldn't go big unless it's Brady Tkachuk or K'Andre Miller. Trading for Marner at his price inevitably absorbs some consequence of his being overpaid. Yes, he scores lots of regular season points but isn't the ultimate playoff guy. 

    MN should stick to less expensive and better all-around plus playoffs players.

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    2 hours ago, Protec said:

    MN should stick to less expensive and better all-around plus playoffs players.

    Agree.  A GM who is not only a hockey guy but a leader who can make savvy decisions on the right players get's this done.  This horse has been beat to death but Guerin was the opposite of savvy last off-season.  Let's see if he can redeem himself this off-season.  Here are some possible scenario's:

    1) repeats last off-season-not really possible as there are no preemptive contract extension's left to give out.  Advantage Guerin

    2) he sells the farm for a big name (Marner, etc).  This team is not one player away.  This would be a FAIL

    3) he trades one or two of current assets and get's a returning asset that can join the top 9, play with heart, and works within the room.  Small net positive moves are the way to go IMO.  This would be an grade A

    4) he trades one or two of current assets and get's a returning asset that is another placeholder in a lineup that's got too many placeholders already.  This would be an F and I would arrange the performance review with a timeline.

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    Looking around and surveying the current environment and conditions, it's a target rich opportunity. The UFA list is long and pretty frick'n good for young guys. 

    Now if you're gonna trade, MN needs to go after guys like Mike Kesserling or Trent Frederic. Each guy is relatively young and has size or toughness with some offense and NHL proven. These guys are not blockbuster types, too expensive or impossible to extend. I agree, it's important to make some positive gains without interfering with future flexibility. That's exactly what I think a Marner acquisition would amount to. 

    Frederic or Kesserling would be really nice to plug in for Merrill, Middleton, or especially NoJo on the wing. Big upgrades in size and toughness to create better balance and both guys can chip in offense. This is the kinds of trades that MN should be going for to improve their team. Boston has no 2024 picks in the first three rounds. What about MN's 2024 2nd, a prospect, and a 2025 3rd for Frederic? Or 13th overall by itself. Some might remember Frederic bullying the Wild which I like in a NA player who can score 40pts.

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    On 5/11/2024 at 8:52 AM, MacGyver said:

    I'm hoping Rossi puts up 40 next year and then tells Guerin he wants out and won't sign an extension.  

    He'd kind of be stuck, then, wouldn't he? He's simply be qualified and if he doesn't sign, he goes back to Europe to play (that would be his option). Or, he can come back larger like last season and prove to the top brass he's worth investing in. I have no problem with a wait and see signing which signals: Do it again! It's not like someone would outbid us on an offersheet!

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    4 hours ago, Protec said:

    Brock Nelson maybe, but the Wild shouldn't go big unless it's Brady Tkachuk or K'Andre Miller.

    Why not Brady Skjei in UFA? Large body with a nice scoring touch. He's having a good playoff season so far.

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    1 hour ago, Protec said:

    Boston has no 2024 picks in the first three rounds. What about MN's 2024 2nd, a prospect, and a 2025 3rd for Frederic? Or 13th overall by itself. Some might remember Frederic bullying the Wild which I like in a NA player who can score 40pts.

    I wouldn't trade a 1st at 13, I'd try and trade up. But a 2nd and a prospect might be a good idea. How cap strapped is Boston, though? I like the idea of bringing in larger bodies, even just a couple of them. This also sends a message to the kids, your best opportunity is if you bulk up!

    But, I like the blockbuster Tkachuk, McTavish or drafting Lindstrom method. 

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    If the Wild cant do anything signifigant in FA  i wouldnt mind maybe taking a small gamble  with giving Nikita Gusav another shot in the NHL  maybe a 1-2 year deal .  nothing that ties our hands could even be a 2 way deal in the AHL  etc    ,    of course id set the bar higher  for some of the names already mentioned but if all else fails its another year of 4rth line tryouts at best . could Nikita be Rossi replacement in the Iowa  help some of the prospects get going .

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