By Justin Wiggins -
For the last few years, the phrase “cost certainty” has been used frequently within the Xcel Energy Center walls. An informal poll shows only “Michelob Golden Light” and “Kirill the Thrill” have been used more often during the Minnesota Wild’s dead cap hit era.
Bill Guerin has often used the term when describing his approach to new contracts and extensions for current players.
It’s been out of necessity, really. The NHL world has experienced a flat cap since the COVID outbreak caused disruption in 2020. And as often as we chastise hockey leaders for letting their short-term pressures cloud their long-term planning, it’s hard to fault them for not forecasting a worldwide pandemic.
Guerin was not alone in suddenly navigating a flat cap world when everyone anticipated a steady rise. Still, with the recent announcement of a skyrocketing salary cap this summer, it’s time for Guerin to trade in his cost certainty for big game hunting in the market.
People met the extensions of veterans like Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno, Frederick Gaudreau, and Ryan Hartman with skepticism upon their signing. Whatever your opinion, those contracts have largely worked out well for the Wild. They sit in third place in the highly competitive Central Division, surprising many who thought his team would struggle to compete for a playoff spot.
But now that nearly every NHL team will have an influx of cap space this summer, there is optimism for perhaps the craziest off-season in the NHL in some time.
If Guerin can ship out one or two of those veteran contracts, the Wild will position themselves as one the busiest teams bidding for the services of the higher impact players available this summer.
The Wild project to have roughly $22.5 million in available cap for next season. They must be mindful of Kirill Kaprizov's looming extension in the summer of 2026. However, the cap is projected to rise another $10 million by then and another $10 million the year after. They should have cap room for their star winger.
Roster space will be Minnesota's bigger issue. Guerin’s penchant for cost certainty has created a log jam for the Wild, and that does not yet account for the anticipated arrival of key prospects such as Danila Yurov and Zeev Buium.
Assuming they want to re-sign a few of their rising RFAs in Marco Rossi and Marat Khusnutdinov, they already have 11 forwards locked in for 2025-26. Throw in the addition of Yurov, and they have zero slots available among their forward group.
The defensive core is even more solidified. With Buium and David Jiricek on the cusp of being NHL players, the Wild’s blue line is all but set for the next few years.
Minnesota has the cap space to make a splash in free agency. While a chunk of their $22.5 million in available cash would likely go to some sort of Rossi extension, there is still enough space to make a run at a Brock Nelson or Brock Boeser to improve their scoring depth.
However, if the Wild could move on from one of those cost-certainty veteran contracts, they could get even more aggressive in building a contender through their self-proclaimed contention window.
The most obvious move would be to trade away Hartman, who's serving a suspension. We’ve belabored the point enough at Hockey Wilderness. His diminished role and habit of getting himself into trouble with the NHL’s Player Safety department makes him an easy target.
Beyond his on-ice antics, clearing his $4 million AAV contract could pave the way for the Wild to make more than one splash this offseason.
As noted above, with how few roster spots the Wild have in their forward group, the depth is obviously there. Still, outside of Kaprizov and Boldy, they lack the bevy of firepower required to make a deep run in the playoffs.
The Wild must move on from their bottom-of-the-lineup depth to discover that scoring depth.
Moving on from a Hartman contract would give the Wild something closer to $26.5 million in cash next year. Factoring in a generous Rossi extension, that number likely drops to somewhere between $18M to $20M rather than $14M to $18M with Hartman still on the roster.
That little bit of breathing room could allow the Wild to sign two impactful free agents instead of one. Imagine a lineup next year consisting of both Nelson and Boeser. Or if the New York Islanders extend Nelson, the Wild could make a bigger splash in reaching out to potential free agents Mikko Rantanen or Mitch Marner.
Cost certainty has helped the Wild remain competitive during their dead cap hit era. Guerin deserves kudos for keeping the State of Hockey engaged when they could have torn it down at the studs.
But now it’s time to trade away that cost certainty to make room for a few extra star players to give Minnesota their best chance at a Stanley Cup in franchise history.
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