By Tony Abbott -
What would happen if you just pressed "Reset" on the 2023-24 Minnesota Wild season? Does a do-over mean that Jared Spurgeon doesn't get hurt? Or perhaps another roll of the dice means Filip Gustavsson doesn't get in a funk? Maybe the Wild dodge that early January injury apocalypse a second time around.
If the Wild got that second crack at it, would they make up the double-digit gap between them and the playoff teams?
Good news for anyone who came here to eulogize the eliminated 2023-24 Wild: That "Reset" button happens now. You can view next year's team as a sequel to this year's disappointing squad.
All your favorite faces are back: Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Brock Faber, and Joel Eriksson Ek. The supporting cast is also coming back. Your least favorite faces? Probably! Minnesota has 19 players under contract for next year, out of a possible 23 roster spots for around $82 million. Assuming the NHL has a $87.5 million salary cap, they'll have about $5.5 million of salary cap space to work with. Some of that will almost certainly go to Marc-Andre Fleury, a 20th player on the roster.
That's a staggering amount of continuity for a roster with an average age of 28.7 next year (before the 39-year-old Fleury returns) and 83 points through 78 games. Every flaw in this team has been exposed throughout this season. They score fewer goals at 5-on-5 than also-rans in the Arizona Coyotes and Calgary Flames, and that's with a very productive top line. Their goaltending is in the bottom third of the league. It's a rough combination to deal with.
There's almost no flexibility to improve next season. Most of the supporting cast are entering or advancing further into their 30s. How can they possibly improve next year?
As difficult as it seems to imagine this adrift team bouncing back to playoff contention in 2024-25, there is a path. As noted, many small things broke poorly for the Wild this year. So, let's hit that metaphorical reset button and see what can go better for Minnesota next season.
The very obvious first thing that can go right for the Wild in 2024-25 is having Spurgeon healthy next year. Spurgeon has been the one constant in Minnesota since 2012, when the Wild launched themselves into permanent playoff contention with constantly mediocre results — until he got hurt in training camp and was limited to 16 games.
Remarkably, Spurgeon's absence isn't talked about more, honestly. In his previous four seasons, Spurgeon averaged 4.2 Standings Points Above Replacement (SPAR), which includes both the COVID-shortened 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. His return will be massive, even without making up the full gap between Minnesota and the playoff teams in the Western Conference.
Spurgeon's return would also have ripple effects throughout the roster, particularly on Faber. The presumptive Calder Trophy finalist is having an excellent year as a workhorse defenseman, but it's clear that months of averaging nearly 26 minutes a night are taking a toll. That's to be expected with a rookie going from 30-40 game seasons in the NCAA to the grind of an 82-game season. But Spurgeon easing some of that load will help, along with Faber's preparations this summer, to hold up better over the long haul.
The Wild could get another boost if Kaprizov enters the offseason healthy. A lower-body injury he sustained at the end of last season seemed to hamper the star player until around mid-December. From December 19 on, he scored 34 goals and 65 points in 42 games. A 66-goal, 127-point season seems out of a realistic possibility for a full season of Kaprizov, but a hotter start than his eight goals and 25 points in his first 29 games seems plausible.
That's especially true if the Wild ride their combination of Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Matt Boldy for most of the season. Minnesota didn't go to this line until John Hynes took over, but it's been spectacular. They've out-scored opponents by a 28-15 margin at 5-on-5 and are one of the best lines in terms of controlling expected goals. We've seen lines get hot one year and cool off the next (see: Boldy and Eriksson Ek with Marcus Johansson), but those three being great together simply makes sense.
Secondary scoring is the main area for improvement other than goaltending, which feels too obvious to list here. Ryan Hartman, Marcus Foligno, Marcus Johansson, and Mats Zuccarello combined for 32 5-on-5 goals this season. The Wild will need more from that group or players to grow into those roles.
Marat Khusnutdinov, Vladislav Firstov, and Liam Öhgren will likely compete for a roster spot, with the outside chance Riley Heidt can make a training camp push. That doesn't necessarily mean any of them will be ready. Khusnutdinov is merely hanging in there during a short stint in the NHL now. But if one or more are prepared for top-nine NHL action, that can only help by giving someone like second-line center Marco Rossi support.
Can the Wild run it back and expect different results? All we know is that our gut says maybe. But it's hard to imagine things breaking worse for the Wild than they did this year, and Minnesota still took until April 9 to be eliminated from the playoffs. It's not difficult to imagine things breaking right, and if they do, Minnesota might have something to watch around this time next year.
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