The Minnesota Wild Have Already Blown Their Post-Parise/Suter Windfall

On 3/12/2024 at 2:38 PM, Protec said:

I would more easily associate "windfall" with teams like Vegas, NY, or Chicago. 

I would consider MN more like escaping captivity. 

Foligno, Hartman, and Zuccarello have performed just as we expected. Nobody else was there to displace them.

Fred and NoJo are both entitled to a bounceback year for me at least. Each guy looked the part when they got signed. Okay with me. After next season, that's gonna have to be re-evaluated.

Guerin needed to be making small gains and keeping flexibility for when the penalties end. I don't think he's painted himself into a corner on that.

I agree with your point about Foligno Hartman and Zucc, they have played up to their contracts so far. The going concern for me is the length of Foligno's contract, the others should age not terribly.

Fred and Nojo on the other hand, I disagree. Looking at their careers, both played well above average when we signed them and were likely to revert to the mean and did. I think it was ill advised to lock them in based on record years, especially when they are over 30. Thankfully the cap hit on both contracts is fairly easy to stomach.

The biggest issue I see coming, is if we have an influx of prospects all ready at the same time. The clauses in these contracts make for a logjam. I'm not sure after a down year if anyone is willing to take on Freddy Evason with 4 years left. Guerin did well to make some space at the deadline, regardless of whether or not I agree the right players left. I think he will continue to force the moves he needs to get the right players on the ice and I'll applaud him for it. Even if it means giving up draft picks to send dead cat contracts elsewhere.

10 hours ago, punch_cut said:

They protected 3 D in 7/3/1 configuration. Spurg, brodin, dumba were the right people protected. 

This is not the point. The point is that almost all GMs favor certain types of players. Going into the Expansion Draft, Guerin should have known what type of players Ron Francis was after. Soucy fit the bill perfectly, and I think that this is who Guerin thought Francis would take. 

Spurgeon and Brodin had to be on the list, and Suter, had he not been bought out would have had to also. The point is that knowing who the other guy values and doesn't value is how you manipulate the exposure. 

Take back in 2017 before Spurgeon had his NMC. His cap number was north of $5m and he was a dynamic player, though undersized. Is that the type of player that McPhee values? Could McPhee have chosen him and immediately flipped him? Maybe, but most other teams were bleeding cap space that year. 

So, this is what Fletcher should have known, McPhee's tendencies. He had a track record in Washington so you knew what kind of players he valued. They're talking about expansion again. Knowing your GM opponent helps you to know who they're likely to take, and then you can determine who you can give up. It's not so much about who you as a GM value, it's about who the other GM values.

Had we exposed Spurgeon in 2017, most of the fanbase would have gasped. But, knowing that McPhee liked the larger bodies, you could have probably snuck Spurgeon through the process because you knew McPhee would look at him and say "too small." Staal was a little more iffy. His age didn't bode well for McPhee, but McPhee did have a long history watching him in Carolina. He knew the player Staal was, and he knew how brutal Staal could play when they weren't in contention. That one was about 50/50. I really think that McPhee would have bypassed Staal and tried for someone younger and I would have risked it.

6 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

The biggest issue I see coming, is if we have an influx of prospects all ready at the same time. The clauses in these contracts make for a logjam.

You say logjam and that is accurate, I say competition and that is also accurate. The top of the crop is who makes the roster. Human nature says that if the position is up for grabs, the most competitive players will have monster offseasons to grab that spot. 

Let's take Adam Beckman for instance. He finally got into a couple of games. I thought he held his own, looked more comfortable on defense, but was not large enough to compete along the boards where he has to dig pucks out. I saw him once again struggle with the speed change in the N as he tripped over himself a few times. And, instead of bodychecking the defender into the boards, he played stick whirling trying to steal and initiated 0 contact. 

What Beckman needs is 10 lbs. of lower body strength and 10 lbs. of upper body strength this summer and that is a tall task. Without using PEDs, it's probably not doable. But, if he wants that position, he has procrastinated long enough in doing this and he needs that monster offseason where he really does nothing other than lift and skate. He needs edge work and he needs acceleration. The strength will help a lot, but it's got to translate. 

There are many other prospects in the same boat, and especially when Beckman or others look around, they see their competition. What they don't see is how Ohgren is training (who had a really good week) and how Dino and Yurov are training. The guys he sees aren't bulking up much, so he thinks he's fine. He's not, and he needs to know he's not.

6 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

You say logjam and that is accurate, I say competition and that is also accurate. The top of the crop is who makes the roster. Human nature says that if the position is up for grabs, the most competitive players will have monster offseasons to grab that spot. 

Let's take Adam Beckman for instance. He finally got into a couple of games. I thought he held his own, looked more comfortable on defense, but was not large enough to compete along the boards where he has to dig pucks out. I saw him once again struggle with the speed change in the N as he tripped over himself a few times. And, instead of bodychecking the defender into the boards, he played stick whirling trying to steal and initiated 0 contact. 

What Beckman needs is 10 lbs. of lower body strength and 10 lbs. of upper body strength this summer and that is a tall task. Without using PEDs, it's probably not doable. But, if he wants that position, he has procrastinated long enough in doing this and he needs that monster offseason where he really does nothing other than lift and skate. He needs edge work and he needs acceleration. The strength will help a lot, but it's got to translate. 

There are many other prospects in the same boat, and especially when Beckman or others look around, they see their competition. What they don't see is how Ohgren is training (who had a really good week) and how Dino and Yurov are training. The guys he sees aren't bulking up much, so he thinks he's fine. He's not, and he needs to know he's not.

I agree MN fan. Competition is a good thing. What isn't a good thing is when we can't drop a Freddy or Nojo out of the lineup for that rookie player who has earned their spot due to a NMC. That's more what i was speaking to when i said a logjam. 

Becky didn't have a bad cup of coffee up here but it wasn't spectacular or enough to keep him on the roster. More work is needed but I think he still has the potential to be a mainstay in this league if he buckles down.

Just now, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

What isn't a good thing is when we can't drop a Freddy or Nojo out of the lineup for that rookie player who has earned their spot due to a NMC. That's more what i was speaking to when i said a logjam. 

Both players have NTCs and can be sent to Iowa. There is no lost opportunity, but the young guy has to clearly beat him out of a roster spot.

I'd agree that a 2M guy sitting in the press box or put on waivers is okay.

To me, Guerin has the interchangable-parts bases covered and the young bucks bases covered. The ability to draw from either pool is there. The flexibility to sit them or be prepared for injuries is there.

Do the Wild have a big, fast, highly skilled team. Not overall, but they can beat some good teams when they play right. The Wild do have some elite weapons and capable goaltending. At the expense of being repetitive, the Wild are pretty decent given the penalties.

23 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Wait just a moment. The extensions start next season while we are still under the heavy lifting of the buyouts. If we can fit that into next year's cap, why can't we fit that into subsequent years? That argument makes no sense.

They can fit this money in, no problem, that's not the point. The point is keeping them going forward loses them flexibility because they had a chance have ~$12-15 million extra of clear cap once Parise/Suter buyouts fall off. It will technically be raises to Kaprizov/Faber/Rossi/Khusnutdinov/Wallstedt that eats up the Parise/Suter money, but without these multi-year extensions, the Wild would still have some clear cap space to make a big addition.

4 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

This is not the point. The point is that almost all GMs favor certain types of players. Going into the Expansion Draft, Guerin should have known what type of players Ron Francis was after. Soucy fit the bill perfectly, and I think that this is who Guerin thought Francis would take. 

Spurgeon and Brodin had to be on the list, and Suter, had he not been bought out would have had to also. The point is that knowing who the other guy values and doesn't value is how you manipulate the exposure. 

Take back in 2017 before Spurgeon had his NMC. His cap number was north of $5m and he was a dynamic player, though undersized. Is that the type of player that McPhee values? Could McPhee have chosen him and immediately flipped him? Maybe, but most other teams were bleeding cap space that year. 

So, this is what Fletcher should have known, McPhee's tendencies. He had a track record in Washington so you knew what kind of players he valued. They're talking about expansion again. Knowing your GM opponent helps you to know who they're likely to take, and then you can determine who you can give up. It's not so much about who you as a GM value, it's about who the other GM values.

Had we exposed Spurgeon in 2017, most of the fanbase would have gasped. But, knowing that McPhee liked the larger bodies, you could have probably snuck Spurgeon through the process because you knew McPhee would look at him and say "too small." Staal was a little more iffy. His age didn't bode well for McPhee, but McPhee did have a long history watching him in Carolina. He knew the player Staal was, and he knew how brutal Staal could play when they weren't in contention. That one was about 50/50. I really think that McPhee would have bypassed Staal and tried for someone younger and I would have risked it.

You are crazy if you think Vegas wouldn't have taken Spurgeon and laughed in the Wild's faces over it. He was sixth in WAR among defensemen over the previous three years, easily the best player that would've been available to them. You act like they didn't get Jonathan Marchessault. 

The Wild currently have $36.2M in cap space for the '25-'26 season with 10/23 players under contract.

Players they will likely add to the books:

Forwards: Khusnutdinov ($2M), Rossi ($3M), Shaw ($1M), Ohgren ($1M), 2 4th line scrubs ($2M), Yurov ($1M)

Defensemen: Middleton ($4M), Faber ($8.5M), Chisholm ($2.5M), Hunt ($1M)

Goalies: Wallstedt ($2.5M)

That's $28.5M of the extra cap taken up by these estimates. That leaves them $7.7M in cap space still, which ought to be enough for them to find a top-6 forward. Whether in UFA or at the TDL. 

I think they'll be okay..

21 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

They can fit this money in, no problem, that's not the point. The point is keeping them going forward loses them flexibility because they had a chance have ~$12-15 million extra of clear cap once Parise/Suter buyouts fall off. It will technically be raises to Kaprizov/Faber/Rossi/Khusnutdinov/Wallstedt that eats up the Parise/Suter money, but without these multi-year extensions, the Wild would still have some clear cap space to make a big addition.

I can buy that logic, I didn't necessarily read that into the article, though. To be fair, I'm dealing with a cold that is really snotty and anything mind related feels like I'm swimming through slime! 

21 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

You are crazy if you think Vegas wouldn't have taken Spurgeon and laughed in the Wild's faces over it. He was sixth in WAR among defensemen over the previous three years, easily the best player that would've been available to them. You act like they didn't get Jonathan Marchessault. 

Wasn't taking Marchessault some kind of a deal with FL? They fleeced a lot of teams. No, I don't believe they would have taken Spurgeon, as with a lot of other GMs who simply think he is too small. Even with the WAR numbers, some players GMs just don't like. 

But, for argument's sake let's just say that they did take him. While he was an important part of our team, the loss would have taken out $5+m in cap, and we had some cap difficulty. You were going to lose a good player. Instead, we chose to lose 2 good, young, financially bargained players instead of one good one. We would have had an extra $3m to spend with one less roster spot to fill. 

20 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Faber ($8.5M)

I think this is a little high, probably not for his value, but what Guerin will pay. There's always the option of bridging him and then giving him his Brinks truck contract.