By Justin Wiggins -
It’s amazing how quickly perceptions can change in the NHL. Just a few years ago, Bill Guerin was the belle of the ball in St. Paul. The man with the nerve to buy out two cornerstone franchise stars was pulling all the right levers.
But that goodwill has seemingly evaporated. As soon as Guerin sold off the previous regime's “country club” roster, he replaced it with his own cozy and comfortable work environment. Guerin’s recent extensions and doubling down on a mediocre roster have left him in many fans' crosshairs this summer.
Most fans cite the market-value contracts following down seasons as a concerning trend. There’s also the plethora of no-movement contracts Guerin attached to aging vets with no discount when other NHL teams with attractive environments avoid such commitments.
But what if the consequences of a locked-in roster go beyond just the impact on the NHL team? With another seemingly successful draft this past June, Minnesota's prospect pool looks as strong as ever. The problem is…. Where are these guys going to play? Or even more dire, how many will look at the dwindling opportunities for themselves in Minnesota and decide their careers are better suited if they start them elsewhere?
Brace yourselves, Wild fans, because if this trend of roster construction continues, your favorite prospect may end up on the trade block soon.
Yes, I know, that sentence is a little aggressive. We may become numb to fear-mongering headlines during an election cycle. However, this is a real issue the Wild will need to navigate in the coming years. One quick look at the two position groups, both on the roster and in the system, paints a clear picture.
Let’s start on defense. The Wild will have locked five defensemen into place for the next two years once Faber signs his inevitable extension and four of them over the next three. Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Jake Middleton, and Zach Bogosian are all extended, with only Bogosian and Brodin carrying no-trade protection in that time.
Then there are the prospects, and boy, are they loaded on the blue line. This year's No. 12 overall pick, Zeev Buium, may be the best of them all, and he could be in the NHL as soon as his collegiate season ends. The next tier of defensive prospects includes Daemon Hunt (2nd round), Jack Peart (2nd round), Carson Lambos (1st round), Ryan O’Rourke (2nd round), Ryan Healey (4th round), and Aaron Pionk (5th round).
That extensive list doesn’t include Declan Chisholm, whom the Wild acquired via waivers last year and is the leading candidate to quarterback their top powerplay unit this season.
Assuming Buium turns pro this spring, the Wild will have one spot on the NHL roster over the next few years. And that’s only if they can trade away a player like Bogosian. One spot in the top six for your top prospects, three of which they invested either a first- or second-round pick in.
Hunt, O’Rourke, and Chisolm's contracts expire after this season. With no clear path to the NHL, the Wild may be forced to move them for pennies on the dollar because they’ve locked in a few replacement-level defensemen on long-term deals.
It looks even more dire at forward because at least most of their extended veterans on the blue line are great contributors when healthy.
Currently, the Wild have nine forwards locked into contracts for the next two years: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman, Yakov Trenin, Frederick Gaudreau, and Liam Ohgren. Only Ohgren, Trenin, and Boldy have no-trade protection.
That list also doesn’t include Marat Khusnutdinov, Marco Rossi, or Jakub Lauko, who will require new contracts next summer. Let’s conservatively assume the Wild keep only one of them – a surprising move that would still result in ten forwards locked into at least the next two seasons.
That leaves just two starting roster spots, at most, left for Danila Yurov (1st round), Reilly Heidt (2nd round), Hunter Haight (2nd round), Rasmus Kumpulainen (2nd round), Ryder Ritchie (2nd round), Rieger Lorenz (2nd round), and Caeden Bankier (3rd round).
The Wild have spent a lot of draft capital on guys, only to place roadblocks in front of their NHL journey with the litany of long-term contracts to aging vets. Sure, the Wild could find a way to move on from Gaudreau’s contract, but that might cost them an asset to do so.
Guerin and the Wild can move on from players with trade protection if they need to, even if it’s difficult to do so. But that’s the problem with the perception of roster flexibility – it’s only perception. The Wild are garnering a reputation for preferring veterans over developing young players (see Rossi). Eventually, one of these highly drafted prospects will not see a path forward within the organization and perhaps request a trade.
We’ve seen it before when the Wild refused to create an NHL path for Jack McBain. They granted his trade request and sent him to the Arizona Coyotes (who are now in Utah). McBain quickly grew into a serviceable third-line center with size, a trait the Wild so desperately missed this year that they spent $3.5 million per year on Trenin this offseason instead of having McBain on his entry-level contract.
Guerin and the Wild need to delicately tip-toe the line between having prospects prove their worth and giving them a chance at their dream to play in the NHL. What’s the point in routinely having a deep prospect pool if they have nowhere to play? If the fan base can clearly see how difficult it will be for some of them to crack the NHL lineup, you can bet the players and their agents will see it, too.
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