By Tony Abbott -
Jared Spurgeon is shaping up to be the hot topic of the Minnesota Wild's offseason. The team announced their captain will undergo season-ending surgery on his hip and back next month, ending his season after only 16 games. Spurgeon's injury coincides with Brock Faber's emergence as a top-pairing caliber defenseman and Spurgeon's full no-move clause turning into a 10-team no-trade clause.
Even outside the injuries, Hockey Wilderness wondered whether this season would be make or break for Spurgeon's time in Minnesota. After 14 seasons and 867 games, increasingly more people seem to be questioning the viability of keeping Spurgeon in a Wild uniform. He'll be entering his age-35 season next year, his playoff performances have come under scrutiny, and once this year ends, he'll only have played in 160 of a possible 246 games.
Add to the fact that the Wild are entering their last year of cap hell next summer, and freeing up $7.575 million in cap space will be very tempting because Bill Guerin expended much of next year's flexibility with preseason extensions. Is it time to let Spurgeon ride into the sunset?
The answer is, undoubtedly, no. Of course not. If Spurgeon is a tradeable asset over the summer, he's projected to be healthy next season. And if he has a clean bill of health net fall, then the Wild still need Jared Spurgeon.
As the longest-tenured player and captain of a team that hasn't made it past the first round of the playoffs since 2015, it's easy to see why the bloom is falling off Spurgeon's rose. Call it the Curse of Mikko Koivu. If you're a visible player who is a constant during a run of only modest success, people will pick nits in your game.
And are there nits to pick? Sure, we suppose. You can point to the playoff stuff and say there's something to it. There might be. Any time you hear "neck surgery," "back surgery," and "turning 35" in the same sentence, that's time to be nervous.
We can not let ourselves forget just how damn good of a defenseman Spurgeon is, though. On second thought, forget good. He's great. So far, Spurgeon has played in 160 of a possible 208 games since the start of the 2021-22 season. Do you want to guess where he ranks on the Wins Above Replacement leaderboard among defensemen during that time, spotting up to 50 games to his competitors?
We could tell you where he sits, but showing you might be more effective.
- Cale Makar: 8.4 WAR
- Quinn Hughes: 7.7 WAR
- Devon Toews: 6.9 WAR
- Roman Josi: 6.8 WAR
- Adam Fox: 6.4 WAR
- Charlie McAvoy: 6.3 WAR
- JARED SPURGEON: 6.0 WAR
- Jaccob Slavin: 5.9 WAR
- Thomas Chabot: 5.8 WAR
- Mattias Ekholm: 5.6 WAR
Spurgeon's been a top-10 defenseman on the Wild in the past two-and-a-half seasons. And again, that's with him down 20 to 35 games compared to most of the other names on the list. In terms of impact when they're in the game, no one is better. For every hour Spurgeon is on the ice at 5-on-5, his expected goals differential is 0.36 higher than the Wild an hour without him. Among defensemen with 2000-plus 5-on-5 minutes, only Fox matches him in that category.
That's all well and good, you might say, but what about actual goals? Fair question, as actual goals are what count on the scoresheet. But Spurgeon is still the best, and it's not close. The Wild's goal differential with Spurgeon on the ice is 0.88 higher than without him patrolling the blueline at 5-on-5. That's first among NHL defensemen by 0.17 goals per hour.
Never mind defensemen, it's a greater impact than elite forwards like Auston Matthews (0.86), Jason Robertson (0.78), and Sidney Crosby (0.66) made on their teams. Only Matthew Tkachuk (1.11) and Pavel Buchnevich (1.08) can claim to be better than Spurgeon in the past three years.
Put another way, for every 68 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time, Spurgeon is spotting the Wild a goal they wouldn't otherwise have. Since he plays an average of 15 minutes and 28 seconds of 5-on-5 time a night, his impact comes out to about one 5-on-5 goal every 4.5 games or so. That's unbelievable.
After all that, it won't surprise you that Kirill Kaprizov (7.2 WAR) is the only Wild player who's been more valuable than Spurgeon these past three years. But seeing the leaderboard for WAR among Wild players this season might surprise you.
- Brock Faber: 1.3 WAR
- Kirill Kaprizov: 1.2 WAR
- Mats Zuccarello: 1.0 WAR
- Jonas Brodin: 1.0 WAR
- Marcus Johansson: 0.9 WAR
- Matt Boldy: 0.8 WAR
- Joel Eriksson Ek: 0.8 WAR
- JARED SPURGEON: 0.7 WAR
- Zach Bogosian: 0.6 WAR
- Ryan Hartman: 0.6 WAR
That's all in 16 games! Just under 40% of the Wild's season so far! It doesn't matter; he's still been a top 10 player on the team, and that's with him very obviously not at full health. As long as he can play, he's a rock star. Minnesota can't forget that this offseason.
But you don't need fancy stats to see that. Just look at the team that posted back-to-back 100-point seasons. Now look at this year's Wild. What's the difference?
Sure, they lost Matt Dumba. But they backfilled him with Faber, who immediately became a top rookie. That can't be it. Spotty goaltending? Sure, that's a factor. But these are the same goalies that performed pretty well last season. Offseason departures like Ryan Reaves and Sam Steel? You've gotta be kidding.
No, when diagnosing the root cause of the Wild's dramatic step back, we have to use the KISS method. Keep It Simple: Spurgeon.
We're watching this Wild team limp their way to a .446 points percentage. They're getting blown out routinely and sitting further from a playoff spot than very bad teams like the Arizona Coyotes, Buffalo Sabres, and Montreal Canadiens. If anyone can watch this all play out and conclude that Minnesota doesn't need Spurgeon, they may be in for a rude awakening if the Wild front office agrees.
All data via Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise stated.
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