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  • Is Next Summer the Time For the Wild To Strike?


    Image courtesy of Brace Hemmelgam-USA Today Sports
    Tony Abbott

    The shackles of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyout penalties don't come off until Summer 2025. The Minnesota Wild are sagging under the burden of $14.7-plus million of dead cap space this season, and that will hold steady next year. Once the league calendar flips over in July 2025 and knocks $13 million of those penalties, the Wild can make some moves. Until then, the team is locked in a holding pattern.

    Or are they?

    This summer, the Wild not only had to contend with the dead cap hits, but a very inflexible roster situation. The free agents they lost were mostly trade acquisitions from last season in Ryan Reaves, John Klingberg, Gustav Nyquist, and Oskar Sundqvist. Over the course of partial seasons, those players had cap impacts so minimal that they provided little relief.

    Only Matt Dumba, whose $6 million cap hit expired this summer, gave Minnesota any wiggle room. The problem is, that money was spoken for all the way back in February, when Matt Boldy signed a contract raising his pay from near-league-minimum to $7 million. It was a fantastic use of that money, but it didn't provide many options for this summer.

    But next year? That's a different story. The buyouts stay the same, yes, but expiring money gives the Wild much more flexibility in Summer 2024. Maybe even enough to effectively end their buyout pain a year early. Minnesota has seven players set to hit UFA status next summer, so let's take a quick look at their expiring cap hits:

    Mats Zuccarello, $6 million
    Marc-Andre Fleury, $3.5 million
    Marcus Foligno, $3.1 million
    Alex Goligoski, $2 million
    Ryan Hartman, $1.7 million
    Brandon Duhaime, $1.1 million
    Pat Maroon, $0.8 million

    With just three players making over $3 million in this bunch, and only one making over $4 million, this doesn't look like a wealth of cap space. In the aggregate, though, that's $18 million of expiring money that they can re-shuffle back into their decks, if they so choose.

    Better yet, none of these players should be considered a core piece of the team's future. It's possible for the team to re-sign any of these players for a short-term deal, we suppose. But seeing as Zuccarello, Fleury, Foligno, Goligoski, and Maroon are either approaching, in, or well past their mid-30s and Hartman is due for a big raise, it's probably preferable to move on from most of these names.

    Even better, very little, if any of that $18 million in expiring cap is going to be spoken for. Connor Dewar is the only player scheduled for RFA status, and he's not going to command anything near Boldy money. Calen Addison might be due, should the Wild sign him to a one-year deal. But he's already become the new Dumba, with his future with the team constantly in question.

    Then there's the breathing room coming due for the rest of the league. Because the players need a better union, they've been forced to pay back a portion of the losses incurred by teams during the COVID pandemic. This has kept the salary cap artificially stagnant, but the players will pay off their debts next year. CapFriendly is projecting a cap increase of $4 million, which gives Minnesota even more space to work with. 

    That extra $22 million is going to have to help them fill 11 spots on a 23-player roster. Still, it's a far cry from where they were at this year. Believe it or not, the rosy picture of Minnesota's spending power gets rosier when you consider this: The Wild are poised to replace some of those players with cheap, cheap contracts.

    Marc-Andre Fleury's heir apparent is perhaps the most obvious, seeing as Jesper Wallstedt will complete a second season in North America this year. Wallstedt played 40 AHL games between the regular season and playoffs in his rookie campaign, and the Iowa Wild are probably poised to see if he can handle more this year. That should have him ready for backup duty in the NHL in 2024-25, meaning the Wild won't have to sign a more expensive replacement for Fleury.

    Marat Khusnutdinov will transition to North America, and if he builds on his stellar KHL season, he might be ready for top-nine duty right away. The fast, pesky forward can fill that Ryan Hartman center/winger/shitkicker role for half the cost they're paying Hartman now. Goligoski only got 46 games last year, and that's sixth/seventh defense duty. Incoming players like Adam Beckman, Daemon Hunt, Danila Yurov, and Liam Öhgren could also potentially step in on entry-level deals.

    The hardest roles to replace will probably be Foligno (unless they slot in Duhaime for that role at a cheaper cap hit than Foligno enjoys now) and Zuccarello. Especially Zuccarello, who finished the season with 67 points in 78 games, second on the team. The veteran winger and Kaprizov's bestie would be 37 to start any new contract, so there's a good chance the Wild were going to have to replace his scoring anyway. But next year, they'll have the ammunition to do so, mostly using the dollars they've been allotting to Zuccarello.

    Theoretically, the Wild could fit even the biggest fish into a salary structure. For example, if the salary cap is at $87.5 million next year, Evolving Hockey projects pending UFA William Nylander to break the bank at a $10.1 million cap hit. The Wild could fit that into their plans with just that expiring $18 million like so:

    Nylander (for Zuccarello): $10.1 million
    Wallstedt (for Fleury): $925K
    Foligno: $2.67 million
    Hunt (for Goligoski): $828K
    Khusnutdinov (for Hartman): $925K
    Duhaime: $1.5 million
    Beckman (for Maroon): $894K

    All that adds up to... $17,842,000. It's like going stars and scrubs at a fantasy football roster, only the "scrubs" are your top prospects. Again, that's just with the expiring UFA money, not any gains they'll get from the cap increasing. 

    It doesn't have to be Nylander, either, of course. That's just the youngest, best, most expensive free agent we could think of. There will certainly be players we don't see as being on the move now that might be loosened. If the next Mark Stone, Jack Eichel, or Matthew Tkachuk-type trade opportunity presents itself next summer, the Wild have the assets and just enough flexibility to make that work.

    The State of Hockey seems to be content waiting for the next two years to go past before making a move towards contention. But there are some major reasons to not see patience as a virtue next summer.

    Making a move next year puts the Wild right back into contention, and avoids wasting another year of Kaprizov, Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek's prime. With key defensemen now in their 30s, too, it's wiser to try to make your window start next year, when Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin are 35 and 31, respectively, than in 2025-26, when they'll be 36 and 32. That extra year might not seem like much, but it can make all the difference.

    It would let the Wild take full advantage of an extra year of entry-level contracts, which are gold in the NHL. After this season, Marco Rossi and Brock Faber will have one more year of making under a million dollars before they hit RFA status and a due a raise. That's an incredibly valuable asset, but only if it facilitates the team becoming a contender. If the Wild are kinda-sorta punting on being Stanley Cup competitive in 2024-25, they're leaving a lot of value on the table for those two, not to mention the ELC years they'd burn from Wallstedt, Khusnutdinov, et al.

    And finally, it's an opportunity to make a big pitch to Kaprizov to stick around for the future. The Wild will get a truckload of money with which to re-sign him, but Kaprizov will get paid wherever he goes. Getting to play with another impact player in 2024-25 and being true contenders is a much better pitch to get him to stay than having him stuck in the mushy middle with a year to dwell on him not having his best friend anymore.

    Even if he does decide to leave, the Wild would still be in a better spot than if they hadn't made a splash to get an impact player.

    Minnesota's cap situation has been an incredible bummer. The buyouts made this summer boring to watch, and we're on Year 3 of it making the Wild worse than they should be. But the good news is: relief might come in half the time that we'd expect.

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    I can only assume that Billy G is on board with this thinking, Tony. There should also be opportunity to be had at the trade deadline in 24-25, as the Wild should be able to trade for players with term that a lot of teams can’t afford to go after.

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    Instead of Nylander. How about Ellis Pettersson of Vancouver  he's a pure stud and a rfa 24-25  offer him 10-12 million for 7 yrs number 1 center solved and what a line with him and krill add boldy or Yurov 

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    21 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

    I can't speak for the Wild but at my age I am certainly on board with this. What good is it having a top level of prospects if you don't graduate them or move them for better players.

    Agreed, I like the idea of using our cap, but also use those prospects and want to strategize the years following. All of these top prospects are going to need contracts, high, bridge, or the glue guy contracts at mid level.

    Lets keep being smart with our dollars, unless we can find a 1C or 2C for the money. KK gonna be the first $15 million dollar man or close at say $14/yr

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    Out of the group of UFA vets next year I think realistically the one 2 I see returning are Duhaime & Hartzy. Unless Foglino takes a Hartman-esque short term deal. I also see Hartman signing for decent money again. 
     

    As much as I like Zucc it’ll be nice getting that $6mil off the books, his game really regressed last season. Assuming MAF & Goose are going to hang it up after this year as well. 

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    I think Hartman, having had his best NHL years in MN and having been willing to take a cheap contract previously, along with his age and style of play Guerin should keep him. More than other guys because he can score.

    I think the Wild will want to see prospects jump right to the NHL but retaining guys who have been key elements of the Wild's success since Guerin arrived shouldn't be overlooked. The Wild could keep Hartman at Zuccarello price and it would be okay. If he scores 60-80 points this season, he'll have earned a large raise. I'm interested to see what Hartman does being a contract year. If he does really well it paints a picture of him being pretty consistent. I would bet he takes a reasonable but team-friendly deal to remain in MN.

    I think Zuccarello, and Fleury are gone. Maybe a 1-year deal but Goligoski too are in the retirement zone. Foligno probably gets an offer to stay along with Hartman. I would think Foligno's number goes down, Hartman up. It won't be like the Dumba UFA situation because the Wild will have some cap to use. Instead of one guy leaving for sure, it will be a scenario where a handful of guys are up in the air or not depending on how the season goes.

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    2 hours ago, Glenn said:

    Instead of Nylander. How about Ellis Pettersson of Vancouver  he's a pure stud and a rfa 24-25  offer him 10-12 million for 7 yrs number 1 center solved and what a line with him and krill add boldy or Yurov 

    Glenn, I've been prayin for that to transpire for awhile now. Agreed this would be a solid choice for Swedesota Wild.

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    46 minutes ago, Protec said:

    I think Hartman, having had his best NHL years in MN and having been willing to take a cheap contract previously, along with his age and style of play Guerin should keep him. More than other guys because he can score.

    I think the Wild will want to see prospects jump right to the NHL but retaining guys who have been key elements of the Wild's success since Guerin arrived shouldn't be overlooked. The Wild could keep Hartman at Zuccarello price and it would be okay. If he scores 60-80 points this season, he'll have earned a large raise. I'm interested to see what Hartman does being a contract year. If he does really well it paints a picture of him being pretty consistent. I would bet he takes a reasonable but team-friendly deal to remain in MN.

    I think Zuccarello, and Fleury are gone. Maybe a 1-year deal but Goligoski too are in the retirement zone. Foligno probably gets an offer to stay along with Hartman. I would think Foligno's number goes down, Hartman up. It won't be like the Dumba UFA situation because the Wild will have some cap to use. Instead of one guy leaving for sure, it will be a scenario where a handful of guys are up in the air or not depending on how the season goes.

    Like Hartzy at $2.75/yr for 3 years and Foligno at $2.25/yr for 2 years?

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    With 1/2 the team possibly turning over, I'd suggest we try and trade for a top end center, or that large #1D guy. Building that top end sets us up for both the '24-25 and '25-26 season. 

    So, in that plan, it would be backfilling with the prospects and Euro guys coming over, and aggressively trying to make that next deal. A guy to keep an eye on may be Lindholm, who I believe fits in perfectly with this group. As Glen mentioned, Pettersson should also be a potential target. Both of these guys may not want to stay with their current teams. There's been a lot of chatter about it. 

    The rest of the league also gets that $4m boost, so they'll have a little room to pay their guys, but some teams won't be able to pay all of them. K'Andre Miller has been mentioned before as a defender to target. Anyone else out there that might fit that #1D mold? 

    I'd really like that center to be in the 28-31 year old range. A guy who can completely take the pressure off of all the new center prospects to be the guy. I'd love the secondary scoring to be able to play real loose without the pressure to have to score. 

    Back on the top, I'm sure Dewar gets a QO, and I'm pretty sure Duhaime gets resigned. Do we really need the gritty guys as we transition into more of a skilled roster? I could see 3 scoring lines and a checking line. With this, I could see us playing more like we did in '21-22 and using speed and skill to drive opponents nuts. Of course, as I see this, I'll still be here to complain about finishing checks. 😁

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    14 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    With 1/2 the team possibly turning over, I'd suggest we try and trade for a top end center, or that large #1D guy. Building that top end sets us up for both the '24-25 and '25-26 season. 

    So, in that plan, it would be backfilling with the prospects and Euro guys coming over, and aggressively trying to make that next deal. A guy to keep an eye on may be Lindholm, who I believe fits in perfectly with this group. As Glen mentioned, Pettersson should also be a potential target. Both of these guys may not want to stay with their current teams. There's been a lot of chatter about it. 

    The rest of the league also gets that $4m boost, so they'll have a little room to pay their guys, but some teams won't be able to pay all of them. K'Andre Miller has been mentioned before as a defender to target. Anyone else out there that might fit that #1D mold? 

    I'd really like that center to be in the 28-31 year old range. A guy who can completely take the pressure off of all the new center prospects to be the guy. I'd love the secondary scoring to be able to play real loose without the pressure to have to score. 

    Back on the top, I'm sure Dewar gets a QO, and I'm pretty sure Duhaime gets resigned. Do we really need the gritty guys as we transition into more of a skilled roster? I could see 3 scoring lines and a checking line. With this, I could see us playing more like we did in '21-22 and using speed and skill to drive opponents nuts. Of course, as I see this, I'll still be here to complain about finishing checks. 😁

    I'm betting with all the prospect forwards we have, the Dewey brothers staying means Moose may have to find a new swamp.

    How about Noah Hanifin to sign for our D as the exodus continues in Calgary.

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    48 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

    How about Noah Hanifin to sign for our D as the exodus continues in Calgary.

    I haven't followed Hanifin much in Calgary, but in Carolina he didn't have much to offer offensively. I think I'd put him into the Spurgeon category as far as potential offense, maybe a little lower. I'd really rather have someone with a bit more offense. To me, Hanifin would be an excellent top pairing partner to a dynamic offensive producing defender. 

     

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    5 hours ago, Glenn said:

    Instead of Nylander. How about Ellis Pettersson of Vancouver  he's a pure stud and a rfa 24-25  offer him 10-12 million for 7 yrs number 1 center solved and what a line with him and krill add boldy or Yurov 

    I'm glad I'm not the only 1 thinking this way. I had my thoughts a little different though. I see two 1c options next year. 1 being petterson but not on an offer sheet, ideally he signs his qualifier of 8.8 with vancouver and do a trade with an extension worked out. Second option sign and trade Draisaitl, you would get 1yr of him at a huge discount. Both are worth trading a bit of the future away to secure a top 10 center. 

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    25 minutes ago, Damagedcalm said:

    I'm glad I'm not the only 1 thinking this way. I had my thoughts a little different though. I see two 1c options next year. 1 being petterson but not on an offer sheet, ideally he signs his qualifier of 8.8 with vancouver and do a trade with an extension worked out. Second option sign and trade Draisaitl, you would get 1yr of him at a huge discount. Both are worth trading a bit of the future away to secure a top 10 center. 

    These are great wish lists, but with Yurov,  Khusnutdinov, Ohgren and Rossi we may not have to worry about filling anything and save our money for the trade deadlines

     

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    Doesn’t going after an RFA mean an offer sheet? And doesn’t a 10-12m dollar offer sheet also mean 4 first round draft picks? Not happening. I think we should try and give the best of the prospects some serious looks this season and -plan to use the deserving ones a spot in the 24-25 season and spend only as needed that year. Maybe find a good fit at the TD in 24-25 with decent term so we can do some damage in the post season. And really go after it in 25-26. In Billy I trust. 

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    15 minutes ago, Sviginak said:

    Doesn’t going after an RFA mean an offer sheet? And doesn’t a 10-12m dollar offer sheet also mean 4 first round draft picks? Not happening. I think we should try and give the best of the prospects some serious looks this season and -plan to use the deserving ones a spot in the 24-25 season and spend only as needed that year. Maybe find a good fit at the TD in 24-25 with decent term so we can do some damage in the post season. And really go after it in 25-26. In Billy I trust. 

    Sviginak, couldn't agree more.  I really don't want to go on a big spending spree and trust BG to pull the right strings. 

    If we can manage a cap $15 million less, imagine what we can do with with the same saving mentality. Cost effective, smart deals and contracts.

    "IBGIT"

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    I'm a big believer that you build a team through the draft.  We supposedly have a pretty good prospect pool that appears to be maturing to the point that we should see 3 or 4 players move up in the next 2 seasons.  A free agent move can be flashy and popular but you have to be careful not to damage the team for years on end.. (See Parise and Suter).  BG seems committed to this internal building process and I like that.  I'm okay if we snag 1 big free agent name with 3 or less years on it... IBGIT.

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    18 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    A guy to keep an eye on may be Lindholm, who I believe fits in perfectly with this group.

    Hockey Wilderness has something cooking. Don't you worry

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    16 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

    These are great wish lists, but with Yurov,  Khusnutdinov, Ohgren and Rossi we may not have to worry about filling anything and save our money for the trade deadlines

    And, this is the argument, do you take the sure thing to pair with Kaprizov, or do you develop the talent, likely more inexpensive, and incrementally improve? 

    Pettersson is a Brackett guy. I would assume that Brackett would be pounding the table for him. In fact, I just read a little about the contract negotiations for him. They are quiet. Vancouver is eyeing the Aho contract as a comparable. It is believed that Pettersson wants >$10m. $11m was suggested. 

    Vancouver gets Pettersson for another year. What would it take for us to bring him in.....now? A key question to ask: Is Vancouver on a lot of player's NTC lists? We would need to shed money and I'd have to think that Zuccarello would be at the top of that list. I could also see Foligno being on that list. Rossi would also have to be on that list as Vancouver is like us, too many wings, not enough centers. 

    Timing is everything here. Perhaps Shooter even talks about some parameters for next season if Vancouver shows up on too many lists? My thought on this is simple, if Pettersson becomes available, you have to go get him and deal with the consequences. Finding Zuccarello a home is a must. Don't worry about Kaprizov, bank on the fact that he wants to win, and playing with a world class center in Pettersson is a way to win.

    Would Pettersson want to come here? I would have to say yes, absolutely! He knows he'd get to play next to world class wing in Kaprizov and has fellow countrymen all over the roster to also play with. In fact, if the deal is that Pettersson wants to win, I'd say this franchise looks brighter than almost all others. Why? Because we've got cap space coming and an infusion of talent almost ready and we're already winning.

    What about Draisaitl? I absolutely believe that Edmonton will find a way to keep him. He's not as disgruntled, as Edmonton has been winning and has advanced in the playoffs. My bet is that Edmonton will trade or let go of RNH before Draisaitl, so I believe he's going to stay, plus, he has a tremendous chemistry with McDavid. I'd love to have him here, but am less optimistic that this could happen.

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    14 hours ago, Sviginak said:

    Doesn’t going after an RFA mean an offer sheet?

    Not necessarily. In this situation, it is about Pettersson and term. If Pettersson doesn't want to give Vancouver term, and is done with them, then they've got to trade him regardless of RFA status. Offersheet is only used in a hostile takeover bid, which I personally would use if I were a GM. The way Waddell used it was perfect!

    We were backed into a corner with Fiala and ended up getting a decent return. I would say that Vancouver may also be backed into a corner with Pettersson, and I'd expect the return to be similar but higher for Pettersson due to his position. If we wait a year, we could offer Rossi, our 1st, and maybe a couple of D prospects like Peart and Johansson? Perhaps even Addison fits into that deal? 

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    21 hours ago, M_Nels said:

    Out of the group of UFA vets next year I think realistically the one 2 I see returning are Duhaime & Hartzy. Unless Foglino takes a Hartman-esque short term deal. I also see Hartman signing for decent money again. 
     

    As much as I like Zucc it’ll be nice getting that $6mil off the books, his game really regressed last season. Assuming MAF & Goose are going to hang it up after this year as well. 

    I'm not convinced he regresses, although it could happen. He was hurt the last 1/2 of the season which coincided with the production drop off. I'm hoping for the best.

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    1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

    I'm a big believer that you build a team through the draft.  We supposedly have a pretty good prospect pool that appears to be maturing to the point that we should see 3 or 4 players move up in the next 2 seasons. 

    I believe in this too. However, building through the draft can also mean using the players you drafted to obtain what you don't have. What we don't have is that developED #1C that can slide in and be dynamic with Kaprizov. 

    I would suggest in this scenario, that Rossi would have to go back to Vancouver because he's the most ready center we've got. Vancouver is also bleeding cap. A deal like this probably needs some help from a 3rd team who can eat some cap for both clubs.

    The thing is, we do not have a player like Pettersson in our pipeline.

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    3 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    I'm not convinced he regresses, although it could happen. He was hurt the last 1/2 of the season which coincided with the production drop off. I'm hoping for the best.

    But, isn't that the thing? When you get to that age, getting hurt regresses you. I'm sure Zuccarello will start out well, but that age/injury thing will likely keep happening. One thing not in Zuccarello's favor is the size factor. He doesn't have the size to be able to absorb the punishment he will endure for a full season. It's not just getting crumpled by a big defender, it's also the cutting and stopping, even the avoiding contact. When players get to this age, "load management" is a term you start hearing.

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    11 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    But, isn't that the thing? When you get to that age, getting hurt regresses you. I'm sure Zuccarello will start out well, but that age/injury thing will likely keep happening. One thing not in Zuccarello's favor is the size factor. He doesn't have the size to be able to absorb the punishment he will endure for a full season. It's not just getting crumpled by a big defender, it's also the cutting and stopping, even the avoiding contact. When players get to this age, "load management" is a term you start hearing.

    Sure, of course. But, it isn't automatic. Years and years ago Many thought Tom Brady was cooked after the ACL He went on to win how many more SB's? Odds are against him but everyone is different. I'm not writing him off until I see another down season.

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