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  • Is Marco Rossi Destined To Become the Next Matt Dumba?


    Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    For the second straight offseason, Marco Rossi responded to the trade rumors swirling around him by making himself indispensable. In 2023, he trained hard to gain the speed and strength to propel him to his 20-goal, 40-point rookie season. After still having his name in the rumor mill this summer, Rossi came back to start hot, scoring five goals and 15 points in his first 19 games. 

    With 0.79 points per game, Rossi has the ninth-most points per game of any Under-24 Minnesota Wild player (minimum 15 games). The only players with better seasons at Rossi's age or younger are Matt Boldy, Marian Gaborik, Kirill Kaprizov, and Kevin Fiala. None of those names, as you'll recall, are centers. His age-22 season is shaping up to be up there with the top young centers in recent memory.

    It's a smallish sample size, but here's where he ranks among 22-year-old centers in 5-on-5 points per hour since 2007-08:

    1. Sidney Crosby, 3.41
    2. Auston Matthews, 3.04
    3. Nathan MacKinnon, 3.00
    4. David Krejci, 2.99
    5. Robert Thomas, 2.93
    6. Connor McDavid, 2.86
    7. Jamie Benn, 2.76
    8. Brayden Point, 2.75
    9. Evgeni Malkin, 2.75
    10. MARCO ROSSI, 2.65
    11. Tyler Seguin, 2.64
    12. Leon Draisaitl, 2.67
    13. Matt Duchene, 2.56
    14. Claude Giroux, 2.53
    15. Mark Scheifele, 2.51

    There's a phrase for centers this young, playing this well: Franchise cornerstone. Of these 15 players, only two have been traded, and that number drops to zero among the top-10. But even with this second breakout from Rossi, he's still back in the trade rumor mill. Rossi is No. 15 on The Athletic's first trade board list of the season, and Michael Russo is perhaps even more convinced he'll be on the move soon. 

    "I am still convinced that they are going to trade him," he declared on the latest "Worst Seats in the House" podcast. "I don't know when, I don't know if it's imminent, or by the deadline, or next summer. I just think that they do not feel that he's a player to commit to long-term....

    "It just seems to me that, for a guy who's done everything they wanted -- skipped his sister's wedding, didn't participate in the Austrian Olympic qualifiers... He wants to win, he's a total pro. To cut ties with this guy at 22, and sometimes, in my eyes, treat him the way they are, I just think they're really gonna regret this."

    Rossi's plight gets to a core belief of humanity: You can not escape your fate. The Greeks knew this thousands of years ago and wrote the play on it with Oedipus Rex. For a more contemporary example, Wild fans can turn to longtime defenseman Matt Dumba.

    Dumba was here for 598 games, and about 450 were under the fog of speculation that he'd be the odd man out. Whether it was two expansion drafts or the many trade deadlines and drafts he spent on those trade rumor boards, NHL observers and Wild fans predicted a Dumba Doomsday with about the same accuracy as The Reasonabliists

    Maybe prophecy won't fail, and Rossi will be on the move, but maybe Dumba just passed the mantle along to Rossi. Someone whose name always pops up in the trade rumors without the supposed trade ever materializing. After all, Minnesota never traded Dumba, even though the rumors persisted until 2023, his final trade deadline with the playoff-bound Wild.

    So, what happened with Dumba then, and why could the same thing happen with Rossi?

    There's rarely one reason why a player does or doesn't get traded. However, if you had to pinpoint any one thing about the Dumba saga, it had to be that he was too valuable to ultimately part with. Look how the Wild went above and beyond to keep Dumba in the fold during the Vegas expansion draft. A double-digit goal-scorer was simply too valuable to lose for nothing, even if the alternative meant losing a power forward prospect in Alex Tuch.

    Here's what people don't talk about in those expansion draft retrospectives: The Wild were right. Dumba put up 14 goals and 50 points in the next season as a nearly 24-minute per night defenseman. That's a valuable, valuable piece for any team's blueline. He was too good to throw away frivolously, even after his pectoral injury changed his career trajectory.

    And perhaps as importantly, the Wild were too good to trade him for futures or less than equal value. Minnesota was competing for a Stanley Cup, needed a top center, and had a surplus of talent on the wing. They needed their version of Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen, and they learned that Johansens don't grow on trees. Or at least, when they sprout up, they don't get traded.

    Starting next season, it's go-time for the Wild. The Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts are (mostly) coming off the books, and rising expectations and pressure will replace them. Minnesota's not going to be able to take a step back in a Rossi trade; they'll need to get equal value that's ready to contribute now.

    Look at the rest of that trade board, and ask yourself which names will be equal value? A struggling, pass-first winger in Trevor Zegras? A scuffling defensive prospect in David Jiricek? What's the point of getting a Bowen Byram when Zeev Buium may be ready to pull a Brock Faber and step in at the end of the year?

    And if you don't like those guys... the rest of the list doesn't get younger.

    There are few things more valuable in hockey than a young top-six center. Any Rossi trade for a non-center is, almost by definition, taking a haircut. The Wild spent years trying to square that circle with Dumba before and after his career-altering injury, and couldn't. And that was with a player with less positional value than Rossi.

    Can Guerin resolve that problem? Who knows? Maybe Russo has the right read on the situation, and the Wild are determined to move on eventually. Or perhaps the Wild might want to do it but never find the right deal, and he stays in Minnesota and the rumor mill until his free agency, like Dumba did. Or maybe Rossi finds a way to escape his fate and stay in the Wild's long-term plans.

    At this point, anything is on the table.

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    1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

    No, i made my point very clear - there is a trend that shows that in order to win - you have to bring size and strength (i even supported that with evidence from the last three SC winning teams)

    That is not completely true. Colorado was 12th in weight and 20th in height when they won in 22. Vegas was one of the largest teams in 23 but Florida in 24 was 18th in height and 18th in weight. Tampa was 26th(!) in height but 2nd in weight in 20-21 (which i believe goes hand in hand with what mnfan was saying on sizing guys by weight not height) and was 24th in height and 6th in weight in 19-20.

    Vegas was the only one of those teams at the very top of the list when they won. Every single other playoffs, the heaviest team has not won. Which is why i say there is no correlation to what you are saying in the data.

    You can look at the average height and weight of every single team per season here;

    https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/nhl/teams-physical-stats/2019-2020

    Yes, when we spoke on this you listed off the largest 6-9 players on the team, not the entire team. If want to look at a specific 9 players on every team, of course you can make them look bigger than they actually are on the whole. 

     

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    4 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

    That is not completely true. Colorado was 12th in weight and 20th in height when they won in 22. Vegas was one of the largest teams in 23 but Florida in 24 was 18th in height and 18th in weight. Tampa was 26th(!) in height but 2nd in weight in 20-21 (which i believe goes hand in hand with what mnfan was saying on sizing guys by weight not height) and was 24th in height and 6th in weight in 19-20.

    Vegas was the only one of those teams at the very top of the list when they won. Every single other playoffs, the heaviest team has not won. Which is why i say there is no correlation to what you are saying in the data.

    You can look at the average height and weight of every single team per season here;

    https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/nhl/teams-physical-stats/2019-2020

    Yes, when we spoke on this you listed off the largest 6-9 players on the team, not the entire team. If want to look at a specific 9 players on every team, of course you can make them look bigger than they actually are on the whole. 

     

    I'll give you players who played on offense for the last 3 cup winners - and how these players stack up against Wild (i am not putting all the players in the pipeline of the teams, just those that play crucial role on offense, if i missed any - feel free to add)

    2022 Stanley Cup Winner Avs:

    Kadri 6ft, Landeskog 6'1'', McK 6ft, Nich 6'4'', Ranty 6'4, Burak 6'3'' 

    i think that's their top 2 line and that is sizable line and Kadri and Landy play much more physical than Johanssen even though they measure up quiet similarly...

    2023 Stanley Cup Winner Knights:

    Eichel 6'2'', Karlsson 6ft, Machy 5'9'', Smith 6'1'', Howden 6'2'', Stone 6'3'', Barbashev 6'1'' 

    i am a little surprised that Eichel is only 6'2! but as you pointed and i do agree, D size matters and they have a LARGE D. we are just married to our D as finesse so can't really do much unless we really rock the boat - Spurge, Brodin, Faber, Chissy they all stay. Midds playing great and they seem to be locked into Bogo. Not sure there is a way to beef up our D. 

    2024 Stanley Cup Winner Panthers:

    Barkov 6'3'', Bennett 6'1'', Forsling 6'1'', Lundell 6'1'', Reinhart 6'1'', Tkachuk 6'2'', Verhaeghe 6'2'', Tarasenko 6'1'', Luostarinen 6'3''

    That is a large group

    2025 Stanley Cup Winner Wild: 🍻

    Boldy 6'2'', Ek 6'3'', Foligno 6'3'', Gaudreau 6, Johansson 6'1'', Trenin 6'2'', Kap 5'10'', Rossi 5'9'', Zuccy 5'8'', Marat 5'11, Harty 6

    On the surface we (Wild) do have some height but it is not spread out enough. We are likely to see Boldy with Ek and MJ once Zuccy comes back leaving L1 as 5'10 5'9 5'8. And that goes against the trend. Can that line survive the season and the playoffs? 

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    On 11/23/2024 at 8:04 AM, Citizen Strife said:

    ...  As good as the 4th line has been, they aren't the scoring threats Rossi keeps provi "But he's 5'9" and kinda slow."  I like Khusnutdinov, but what has the speed advantage gotten him but PK skills?  Khusnutdinov has 6 points in 100 games.  Rossi has 56 in 120....

    Marat has only played 35 games. 

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    25 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    I'll give you players who played on offense for the last 3 cup winners - and how these players stack up against Wild (i am not putting all the players in the pipeline of the teams, just those that play crucial role on offense, if i missed any - feel free to add)

    2022 Stanley Cup Winner Avs:

    Kadri 6ft, Landeskog 6'1'', McK 6ft, Nich 6'4'', Ranty 6'4, Burak 6'3'' 

    i think that's their top 2 line and that is sizable line and Kadri and Landy play much more physical than Johanssen even though they measure up quiet similarly...

    2023 Stanley Cup Winner Knights:

    Eichel 6'2'', Karlsson 6ft, Machy 5'9'', Smith 6'1'', Howden 6'2'', Stone 6'3'', Barbashev 6'1'' 

    i am a little surprised that Eichel is only 6'2! but as you pointed and i do agree, D size matters and they have a LARGE D. we are just married to our D as finesse so can't really do much unless we really rock the boat - Spurge, Brodin, Faber, Chissy they all stay. Midds playing great and they seem to be locked into Bogo. Not sure there is a way to beef up our D. 

    2024 Stanley Cup Winner Panthers:

    Barkov 6'3'', Bennett 6'1'', Forsling 6'1'', Lundell 6'1'', Reinhart 6'1'', Tkachuk 6'2'', Verhaeghe 6'2'', Tarasenko 6'1'', Luostarinen 6'3''

    That is a large group

    2025 Stanley Cup Winner Wild: 🍻

    Boldy 6'2'', Ek 6'3'', Foligno 6'3'', Gaudreau 6, Johansson 6'1'', Trenin 6'2'', Kap 5'10'', Rossi 5'9'', Zuccy 5'8'', Marat 5'11, Harty 6

    On the surface we (Wild) do have some height but it is not spread out enough. We are likely to see Boldy with Ek and MJ once Zuccy comes back leaving L1 as 5'10 5'9 5'8. And that goes against the trend. Can that line survive the season and the playoffs? 

    Florida last year is less than one pound different than the Wild this year.... stupid take.

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    4 minutes ago, Patrick said:

    Florida last year is less than one pound different than the Wild this year.... stupid take.

    Barkov and Reinhart and Rodriguez 

    Kap Rossi Zuccy

     Barkov prob weighs as much as Rossi and Zuc combined

    smart take

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    1 minute ago, OldDutchChip said:

    Barkov and Reinhart and Rodriguez 

    Kap Rossi Zuccy

     Barkov prob weighs as much as Rossi and Zuc combined

    smart take

    Take Kaprizov off and put your mom in and it would be the heaviest line in the NHL....😂😂😂

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    Is it possible that BG simply doesn't know Rossi's value on the open market and he is testing the waters?  Rossi is a RFA and BG may want a long term contract for cheap and doesn't want to get undercut by another team.  Just guessing, but nothing else seems to make sense.  Rossi is checking all the boxes and at 23 he will continue to improve.  If the value comes in really high BG may need to consider a trade just to keep the cap low to sign Kirill who could demand north of $14M.  

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    It all depends on the return, although I doubt it is going to happen this season. The depth just isn't there yet. Next year you can let Yurov center Kap and Zuccy and then your second line is Boldy-Ek-and some big-power forward. 

    Moving on from Rossi probably saves them $5M to $6M on his next contract, given the way he is producing points. Fiala was producing at a similar rate, at a less valuable position, and he got $5.1M in arbitration.

    So you combine that with the likely available cap-space and now you've got around $14M in cap to address the top-6 and add some much-needed size. It will suck to give up on Rossi just as he starts to live up to his draft hype, and I just got a Rossi jersey for Xmas so it would suck to see him move on so soon, but I can definitely see the logic behind moving on from him in the near-future. 

    If we want to sign Kap, he's gonna want to win-now and that means making win-now moves. 

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    3 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    I'll give you players who played on offense for the last 3 cup winners - and how these players stack up against Wild (i am not putting all the players in the pipeline of the teams, just those that play crucial role on offense, if i missed any - feel free to add)

    2022 Stanley Cup Winner Avs:

    Kadri 6ft, Landeskog 6'1'', McK 6ft, Nich 6'4'', Ranty 6'4, Burak 6'3'' 

    i think that's their top 2 line and that is sizable line and Kadri and Landy play much more physical than Johanssen even though they measure up quiet similarly...

    2023 Stanley Cup Winner Knights:

    Eichel 6'2'', Karlsson 6ft, Machy 5'9'', Smith 6'1'', Howden 6'2'', Stone 6'3'', Barbashev 6'1'' 

    i am a little surprised that Eichel is only 6'2! but as you pointed and i do agree, D size matters and they have a LARGE D. we are just married to our D as finesse so can't really do much unless we really rock the boat - Spurge, Brodin, Faber, Chissy they all stay. Midds playing great and they seem to be locked into Bogo. Not sure there is a way to beef up our D. 

    2024 Stanley Cup Winner Panthers:

    Barkov 6'3'', Bennett 6'1'', Forsling 6'1'', Lundell 6'1'', Reinhart 6'1'', Tkachuk 6'2'', Verhaeghe 6'2'', Tarasenko 6'1'', Luostarinen 6'3''

    That is a large group

    2025 Stanley Cup Winner Wild: 🍻

    Boldy 6'2'', Ek 6'3'', Foligno 6'3'', Gaudreau 6, Johansson 6'1'', Trenin 6'2'', Kap 5'10'', Rossi 5'9'', Zuccy 5'8'', Marat 5'11, Harty 6

    On the surface we (Wild) do have some height but it is not spread out enough. We are likely to see Boldy with Ek and MJ once Zuccy comes back leaving L1 as 5'10 5'9 5'8. And that goes against the trend. Can that line survive the season and the playoffs? 

    C6Xg.gif

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    On 11/25/2024 at 8:54 AM, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    It would really depend on his contract, wouldn't it? If he's on a good contract, he will definitely be tradeable, but maybe they just decide to keep him at that point.

    A Daniel Briere type of player could be fairly useful for any team.

    The thing is if he is playing well it is a good contract.  If he isn't playing well then it is a bad contact.  If he plays well he won't be traded. If he is playing poorly he won't be traded either.  One because the Wild won't want to give him up and the other is because nobody else will want him.

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    On 11/25/2024 at 1:57 PM, Pewterschmidt said:

    Buy why Brodin P-Jingles?  Watch JoBro anytime there's a scrum.  He's so sandpaper averse that he sometimes doesn't even tie up a guy in order to avoid any risk of unpleasantness

    When others are bringing sandpaper to the discussion, Brodin calmly displays his dust cloth!

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    On 11/25/2024 at 2:02 PM, OldDutchChip said:

    may even add trenin to this list - imagine him fight ..... he'll likely slip and fall before a punch is thrown.

    You mean the Boldy overhand right strategy?

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