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  • Is Marco Rossi Destined To Become the Next Matt Dumba?


    Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    For the second straight offseason, Marco Rossi responded to the trade rumors swirling around him by making himself indispensable. In 2023, he trained hard to gain the speed and strength to propel him to his 20-goal, 40-point rookie season. After still having his name in the rumor mill this summer, Rossi came back to start hot, scoring five goals and 15 points in his first 19 games. 

    With 0.79 points per game, Rossi has the ninth-most points per game of any Under-24 Minnesota Wild player (minimum 15 games). The only players with better seasons at Rossi's age or younger are Matt Boldy, Marian Gaborik, Kirill Kaprizov, and Kevin Fiala. None of those names, as you'll recall, are centers. His age-22 season is shaping up to be up there with the top young centers in recent memory.

    It's a smallish sample size, but here's where he ranks among 22-year-old centers in 5-on-5 points per hour since 2007-08:

    1. Sidney Crosby, 3.41
    2. Auston Matthews, 3.04
    3. Nathan MacKinnon, 3.00
    4. David Krejci, 2.99
    5. Robert Thomas, 2.93
    6. Connor McDavid, 2.86
    7. Jamie Benn, 2.76
    8. Brayden Point, 2.75
    9. Evgeni Malkin, 2.75
    10. MARCO ROSSI, 2.65
    11. Tyler Seguin, 2.64
    12. Leon Draisaitl, 2.67
    13. Matt Duchene, 2.56
    14. Claude Giroux, 2.53
    15. Mark Scheifele, 2.51

    There's a phrase for centers this young, playing this well: Franchise cornerstone. Of these 15 players, only two have been traded, and that number drops to zero among the top-10. But even with this second breakout from Rossi, he's still back in the trade rumor mill. Rossi is No. 15 on The Athletic's first trade board list of the season, and Michael Russo is perhaps even more convinced he'll be on the move soon. 

    "I am still convinced that they are going to trade him," he declared on the latest "Worst Seats in the House" podcast. "I don't know when, I don't know if it's imminent, or by the deadline, or next summer. I just think that they do not feel that he's a player to commit to long-term....

    "It just seems to me that, for a guy who's done everything they wanted -- skipped his sister's wedding, didn't participate in the Austrian Olympic qualifiers... He wants to win, he's a total pro. To cut ties with this guy at 22, and sometimes, in my eyes, treat him the way they are, I just think they're really gonna regret this."

    Rossi's plight gets to a core belief of humanity: You can not escape your fate. The Greeks knew this thousands of years ago and wrote the play on it with Oedipus Rex. For a more contemporary example, Wild fans can turn to longtime defenseman Matt Dumba.

    Dumba was here for 598 games, and about 450 were under the fog of speculation that he'd be the odd man out. Whether it was two expansion drafts or the many trade deadlines and drafts he spent on those trade rumor boards, NHL observers and Wild fans predicted a Dumba Doomsday with about the same accuracy as The Reasonabliists

    Maybe prophecy won't fail, and Rossi will be on the move, but maybe Dumba just passed the mantle along to Rossi. Someone whose name always pops up in the trade rumors without the supposed trade ever materializing. After all, Minnesota never traded Dumba, even though the rumors persisted until 2023, his final trade deadline with the playoff-bound Wild.

    So, what happened with Dumba then, and why could the same thing happen with Rossi?

    There's rarely one reason why a player does or doesn't get traded. However, if you had to pinpoint any one thing about the Dumba saga, it had to be that he was too valuable to ultimately part with. Look how the Wild went above and beyond to keep Dumba in the fold during the Vegas expansion draft. A double-digit goal-scorer was simply too valuable to lose for nothing, even if the alternative meant losing a power forward prospect in Alex Tuch.

    Here's what people don't talk about in those expansion draft retrospectives: The Wild were right. Dumba put up 14 goals and 50 points in the next season as a nearly 24-minute per night defenseman. That's a valuable, valuable piece for any team's blueline. He was too good to throw away frivolously, even after his pectoral injury changed his career trajectory.

    And perhaps as importantly, the Wild were too good to trade him for futures or less than equal value. Minnesota was competing for a Stanley Cup, needed a top center, and had a surplus of talent on the wing. They needed their version of Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen, and they learned that Johansens don't grow on trees. Or at least, when they sprout up, they don't get traded.

    Starting next season, it's go-time for the Wild. The Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts are (mostly) coming off the books, and rising expectations and pressure will replace them. Minnesota's not going to be able to take a step back in a Rossi trade; they'll need to get equal value that's ready to contribute now.

    Look at the rest of that trade board, and ask yourself which names will be equal value? A struggling, pass-first winger in Trevor Zegras? A scuffling defensive prospect in David Jiricek? What's the point of getting a Bowen Byram when Zeev Buium may be ready to pull a Brock Faber and step in at the end of the year?

    And if you don't like those guys... the rest of the list doesn't get younger.

    There are few things more valuable in hockey than a young top-six center. Any Rossi trade for a non-center is, almost by definition, taking a haircut. The Wild spent years trying to square that circle with Dumba before and after his career-altering injury, and couldn't. And that was with a player with less positional value than Rossi.

    Can Guerin resolve that problem? Who knows? Maybe Russo has the right read on the situation, and the Wild are determined to move on eventually. Or perhaps the Wild might want to do it but never find the right deal, and he stays in Minnesota and the rumor mill until his free agency, like Dumba did. Or maybe Rossi finds a way to escape his fate and stay in the Wild's long-term plans.

    At this point, anything is on the table.

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    22 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    what kept zuccy in pp1 - zuccy and kap chemistry and zuccy's unbelievable passing 

    otherwise i think you need more strength and get into tough spots to score PP goals

    From the left point? That guy would sneak down for a one-timer, but that should be as close as he gets. It should also be an RHS, but we simply don't have one of those.

    On PP2, right now, we're using Faber as the top guy and Spurgeon on the left point where he can sneak down for the one-timer. This is good strategy, unfortunately, we have nobody who can get that pass across to Spurgeon. So, it has to go up top to Faber and then to Spurgeon.

    Yesterday, Rossi got to play PP1 as Boldy took over the Kaprizov spot and Hartsy took over the Boldy spot. Boldy's hand/eye should be good at one-timers from there but he flubs/shanks a lot of shots, rarely getting full composite behind the shot. While we got a goal from Faber off the PP, I was not impressed with the PP. When we are missing 2/5 players from our PP, a different strategy should be used, not just replacing pieces. I didn't think Rossi was bad, but the whole unit lacked chemistry. 

    On a different topic, you are talking about size, but I think you're more talking about height:

    • Spurgeon
    • Rossi
    • Zuccarello
    • Dino

    I'm hoping I didn't miss anyone. For 2 games, I've seen Rossi take bigger players into the boards and knock them off balance. Dino consistently does the same as does Spurgeon. I'm with you on this, I think we can only carry 3 undersized players, but my definition is weight, not height. Rossi would be off my list. Am I missing anyone?

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    On 11/23/2024 at 8:27 AM, Fezig said:

    Outside of Russo and the media, who is talking about trading Rossi? I don't see many readers of this site promoting it. It's not like the squad has an overabundance of goal scoring centers and it's hard to imagine getting the equivalent in return. Maybe, just maybe, it's the media conjuring up trade speculation as that's pretty much what they do.

    I think the biggest reason to worry about this (outside of Russo's reports) is simple: When was the last time a Wild player played this well and didn't get an extension in a quick manner? We tend to know very fast when a player is one of "Billy's Guys" and a lack of extension for Rossi is a pretty big outlier if he is one of "Billy's Guys."

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    3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    From the left point? That guy would sneak down for a one-timer, but that should be as close as he gets. It should also be an RHS, but we simply don't have one of those.

    On PP2, right now, we're using Faber as the top guy and Spurgeon on the left point where he can sneak down for the one-timer. This is good strategy, unfortunately, we have nobody who can get that pass across to Spurgeon. So, it has to go up top to Faber and then to Spurgeon.

    Yesterday, Rossi got to play PP1 as Boldy took over the Kaprizov spot and Hartsy took over the Boldy spot. Boldy's hand/eye should be good at one-timers from there but he flubs/shanks a lot of shots, rarely getting full composite behind the shot. While we got a goal from Faber off the PP, I was not impressed with the PP. When we are missing 2/5 players from our PP, a different strategy should be used, not just replacing pieces. I didn't think Rossi was bad, but the whole unit lacked chemistry. 

    On a different topic, you are talking about size, but I think you're more talking about height:

    • Spurgeon
    • Rossi
    • Zuccarello
    • Dino

    I'm hoping I didn't miss anyone. For 2 games, I've seen Rossi take bigger players into the boards and knock them off balance. Dino consistently does the same as does Spurgeon. I'm with you on this, I think we can only carry 3 undersized players, but my definition is weight, not height. Rossi would be off my list. Am I missing anyone?

    i thought Chissy was great and a dubious decision of benching him during Calgary game. he should be our PP1 D. 

    I applaud Rossi's attempts to check bigger players  (which is 99% of players he is up against) and his points are great, but at the end of the day - you know he's our main trade bait.

    as far as size goes - i have never said Rossi cannot play in the NHL nor that he is not good. i am saying that the way to win in the NHL is not thru building a team of undersized players. that may have worked if we played a more soviet way of puck control and played that way maybe 15-10 years ago but now it's different - players ARE stronger and faster than they used to be. The dump and chase, the beat down, the checks ..... look at calgary and what was happening to poor harty! and now we are rolling into Jets town...

    i think you'll agree that we cannot compare rossi to marchand or to point. in height they may be similar but in total built they are worlds apart. (if is was Marchand and Kap on one line - i'd have zero problems with that knowing NO-ONE will start shit if they see crazy M around them)

    just realistic view - you need to upgrade in size / strength (deterrence of violence) to win. you will not trade zuccy, so that leaves us with rossi as expandable. and the way it's playing out now - with zuccy injured and rossi scoring - well i think it's going to be inevitable - Rossi will be moved.

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    2 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    but at the end of the day - you know he's our main trade bait.

    Ask yourself why this is and it will lead you to the real problem. Hint: Rossi isn't the problem.

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    41 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

    Ask yourself why this is and it will lead you to the real problem. Hint: Rossi isn't the problem.

    not sure that matters. that's the reality. 

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    I had to turn down the JoJo contempt goggles just a smidge... because he looked like a functional NHL'er, which is the bar I set for him... If a damn rookie could just come in & truly prove it once, I'd much more comfortable loading the dead-weight into the pickup.

    It sounds a little nuts, but it might actually be good to have #97 actually sit longer (just have him eat Spatz & lift more large truck tires for awhile). I say this because I think we have some serious deferring illness in our rookie camp, even our vets when our superstar is on the ice (I am not disparaging #97... more like the coattail grabbers). It might actually be good for the team to figure out how to play when they don't have the guy doing it all for them.

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    10 minutes ago, LittleBallofHate said:

    I had to turn down the JoJo contempt goggles just a smidge... because he looked like a functional NHL'er, which is the bar I set for him... If a damn rookie could just come in & truly prove it once, I'd much more comfortable loading the dead-weight into the pickup.

    It sounds a little nuts, but it might actually be good to have #97 actually sit longer (just have him eat Spatz & lift more large truck tires for awhile). I say this because I think we have some serious deferring illness in our rookie camp, even our vets when our superstar is on the ice (I am not disparaging #97... more like the coattail grabbers). It might actually be good for the team to figure out how to play when they don't have the guy doing it all for them.

    You have a good point and are correct that he is 80% of our offense, but he provides the entertainment. 

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    20 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Had to watch the highlights of this one, didn't get to watch live. Was prepared to give Johansson some credit if he scored a nice goal, but he had over half the net open and still hit the goalie on the side of his chest. He got lucky to receive such a nice pass and deflect in off a goalie who was out of position for his shot.

    Still feel like Ohgren could do all of the things Johansson does and more...

    We lost in a Shootout Out?! Fire everyone!!! (sarcasm)

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    The main reason he is the next Matt Dumba is because the media wants it.  That is the reason why, because everyone is reporting on it.  Right now Rossi is not tradeable.  The team is one of the best in the league and you could argue Rossi is a major part of that success.

    So, lets say they do trade him.  What would they get?  You would have to get a top 10 draft pick level of player.  Also, a under 24 year old player.  Those are not readily available.  In the past 20 years I would say Tyler Seguin was the only player in those categories.  So, I really doubt he will be traded. 

    Now lets look into the reason why he should be traded regardless.  If they sign him to a massive contract at the end of the season that would mean they could never trade him.  Once that contract gets signed he is here for a long time and with the prospects in the system he would cause a difficult situation way worse than the Gaudreau and Foglino contracts.  The prospects would have no roster spots.  Yurov is worth a shot and Heidt is also in consideration.  Since I fall under the philosophy of "Everyone is tradeable" Trade Rossi while he is at his highest value.  Which would be at the trade deadline this year.  His value would be a little lower before the draft.  But after that I doubt he would be tradeable until he is in his 30's.  

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    12 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    Since I fall under the philosophy of "Everyone is tradeable" Trade Rossi while he is at his highest value.  Which would be at the trade deadline this year.  His value would be a little lower before the draft.  But after that I doubt he would be tradeable until he is in his 30's.  

    It would really depend on his contract, wouldn't it? If he's on a good contract, he will definitely be tradeable, but maybe they just decide to keep him at that point.

    A Daniel Briere type of player could be fairly useful for any team.

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    On 11/23/2024 at 11:00 AM, OldDutchChip said:

    as for the fancy stats - ask your self - is it fair for any of them to be compared to Rossi? maybe then we should look outside of stats? maybe consider (a) luck (b) teammates (c) attention that is afforded in extreme measures to cover for kaprizov, so Rossi either gets spoon fed those on L1 or gets easier time playing against weaker D on other Lines? 

    i very much doubt that any of the 14 other players on that list play against the same competition. but regardless - he is one of our biggest assets that we have - to loose that is foolish. Billy will capitalize on it, and Rossi will be gone at TD. if it brings us back Tuch and closes the Dumba circle - that will be fine with me. 

    So if he is killing it on the first line he is a passenger, but when he starts killing it with Foligno and Hartman it is because he isn't against elite competition? He could put up 100 points and you would still be complaining.

    Fancy stats, by that you mean his goals and assists? It is absolutely comparable because every single person on this list both had teammates and may have played elsewhere other than the first line. Rossi is good, may even become great. Trading him prematurely at 23 is a mistake. 

    Show me any other team that trades away a under 24 center on an ELC that is producing up and down the lineup after being deficient at that position since their inception and I will show you a rebuilding franchise. No one does that unless you are completely tearing it down to the studs because it is a dumb move.

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    21 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

    killing it with Foligno

    I think Rossi has always been a good fit with Foligno for some reason.  Maybe it is a more deliberate style of play that suits him?  

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    19 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

    So if he is killing it on the first line he is a passenger, but when he starts killing it with Foligno and Hartman it is because he isn't against elite competition? He could put up 100 points and you would still be complaining.

    Fancy stats, by that you mean his goals and assists? It is absolutely comparable because every single person on this list both had teammates and may have played elsewhere other than the first line. Rossi is good, may even become great. Trading him prematurely at 23 is a mistake. 

    Show me any other team that trades away a under 24 center on an ELC that is producing up and down the lineup after being deficient at that position since their inception and I will show you a rebuilding franchise. No one does that unless you are completely tearing it down to the studs because it is a dumb move.

    Has Billy signed Ek? YES

    Has Billy signed Boldy? YES

    Has Billy signed virtually everyone else to extensions but Rossi? YES

    It's a reality. Billy hasn't signed him and there is a reason for it. He is not going to pay Rossi what he will command (7+?). You can cry all you want - but Billy is shopping him and is loving his production right now. 

    So if he is killing it on the first line he is a passenger, but when he starts killing it with Foligno and Hartman it is because he isn't against elite competition? That' how it works - you know Kap gets the most attention and is basically dominating every opposing player - if you are with him - you are bound to collect pts. If you are not - then you do not face that same level of attn.

    Again - i don't think Rossi is not a good NHL player. He is fine at what he does. He just does not fit us. Without Zuccy - maybe. But Zuccy is here and is attached to Kap. I don't think Billy will want to keep having these incidents with Kap and they will continue and will only intensify. And having Rossi and Zuccy there with Kap will not deter that. Kap is the future NOT Rossi. Deal with it. 

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    1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

    Kap is the future NOT Rossi. Deal with it. 

    No where have I ever said anything about Kap not being the cornerstone. It just takes more than a single player to win a cup. That is what Kap stated he wants and right now Rossi is a strong contributor on the team. As it stands, I believe it would be a net loss to let him go which would hurt our chances of keeping Kap, not help them. EEK is a great 1C with Boldy and Kap and should be enough deterrence, even though deterrence seems like an utter farce in this league anyway. We've had tough guys on our team, people are going to go after our stars anyway. It happens to McDavid, McKinnon, Draisaitl and every other star in the league.

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    20 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    as far as size goes - i have never said Rossi cannot play in the NHL nor that he is not good. i am saying that the way to win in the NHL is not thru building a team of undersized players.

    I think we're in agreement here, but my point was that you can have undersized players, but 3 on a roster are likely the max. Looking at Freddy's measurables, I think he is also undersized. But, for me, it's about weight, not height. Rossi at 190+ is no longer a small player.

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    30 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

    No where have I ever said anything about Kap not being the cornerstone. It just takes more than a single player to win a cup. That is what Kap stated he wants and right now Rossi is a strong contributor on the team. As it stands, I believe it would be a net loss to let him go which would hurt our chances of keeping Kap, not help them. EEK is a great 1C with Boldy and Kap and should be enough deterrence, even though deterrence seems like an utter farce in this league anyway. We've had tough guys on our team, people are going to go after our stars anyway. It happens to McDavid, McKinnon, Draisaitl and every other star in the league.

    you have to plan out the future, can't just assume Kap will sign. few more hits and injuries and beat downs may not be what he wants in his future.....Rossi and Zuccy on L1 with Kap will not work in POs. I have shown everyone the latest trend and who wins SC - it's teams that are build with strength. Rossi and Zuccy have neither. 

    Ek is not a deterrence - he is the lovable punching bag. but ok - Boldy Ek and Kap is a very good Line. extremely. But then who will play with Rossi on line 2? this year? Rossi MJ and Ohgren? is that a line that is even NHL worthy? 

    As for tough guys - again i have been clear that the deterrence needs to come from the line itself. it won't be foligno barking from the bench. it has to be present on Kap's line. Him and Zuccy are pretty much a lock on line 1 for the next year. so who will join them? 

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    35 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I think we're in agreement here, but my point was that you can have undersized players, but 3 on a roster are likely the max. Looking at Freddy's measurables, I think he is also undersized. But, for me, it's about weight, not height. Rossi at 190+ is no longer a small player.

    yeap and even Kap with his size is also below 6ft. and you don't want the best player in the world to also be your bruiser and tough guy.  rossi and zuccy are tiny. and they occupy line with the BEST player in the world who just escaped what would have been a brutal injury. what will happen today against jets if he plays with Rossi? or will we keep him out to "rest"....with that mentality - might as well keep him out of playoffs - cause he will be target number 1 ALL THE TIME and Rossi won't do shit to stop it. Weight / Height - i mean sure he has put some weight on  but he still gets knocked out easily and doesn't exactly put fear in his opponents. on the other hand - 

     

     

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    23 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    I have shown everyone the latest trend and who wins SC - it's teams that are build with strength. Rossi and Zuccy have neither. 

    Except you cherry picked stats to fit your point (see my PIT example) and ignored teams when they didn't fit your trend. As the thorough article I gave you the link to stated, there is zero correlation between size of forwards and SC success. Defensemen, yes, absolutely. A larger core of defensemen usually equals a longer run in playoffs.

    I say we try to keep Rossi and send prospects and picks to a team for a larger top 6 guy that can replace Mojo. I don't see us getting a hockey trade 1 for 1 on a larger, young and just as capable center and I don't think giving up blue chip prospects is the answer either. Even if we do trade Rossi, we have the issue of fitting another established guy under the cap, which is going to be rough considering Rossi is on an ELC. Our depth is not great (Calgary we played an AHL 4th line and it showed) so sending several guys for one would be a risky gambit and likely top load this team completely. 

    All this combined is why I advocate for keeping what we have currently and letting the season play out. I wouldn't mind someone to displace Nojo on second line but we just have zero money for a big swing. Estimated cap space at the TDL is 1.6M. Our 14.8M cap hit goes away next year allowing us to make some free agency moves to really make this team a contender. A large shake up while we are playing really good hockey with no cap space is a gamble that can go south quick.

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    18 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

    Except you cherry picked stats to fit your point (see my PIT example) and ignored teams when they didn't fit your trend. As the thorough article I gave you the link to stated, there is zero correlation between size of forwards and SC success. Defensemen, yes, absolutely. A larger core of defensemen usually equals a longer run in playoffs.

    I say we try to keep Rossi and send prospects and picks to a team for a larger top 6 guy that can replace Mojo. I don't see us getting a hockey trade 1 for 1 on a larger, young and just as capable center and I don't think giving up blue chip prospects is the answer either. Even if we do trade Rossi, we have the issue of fitting another established guy under the cap, which is going to be rough considering Rossi is on an ELC. Our depth is not great (Calgary we played an AHL 4th line and it showed) so sending several guys for one would be a risky gambit and likely top load this team completely. 

    All this combined is why I advocate for keeping what we have currently and letting the season play out. I wouldn't mind someone to displace Nojo on second line but we just have zero money for a big swing. Estimated cap space at the TDL is 1.6M. Our 14.8M cap hit goes away next year allowing us to make some free agency moves to really make this team a contender. A large shake up while we are playing really good hockey with no cap space is a gamble that can go south quick.

    Except you cherry picked stats to fit your point (see my PIT example) and ignored teams when they didn't fit your trend. No, i made my point very clear - there is a trend that shows that in order to win - you have to bring size and strength (i even supported that with evidence from the last three SC winning teams) On the contrary - to try to win the argument you brought up Penguins team from a decade ago! Now if we discussed 2016 Pens vs 2024 Wild you may have something - but that era has changed, so we should place higher emphasis on a more recent winning trends. 

    As for Cap maneuvering - i do believe Wild can get a bit more creative to absorb a salary at the trade deadline, of course depending on what that salary is (i think it's doable to fit in up to 6 mil if Billy is creative and other team is somewhat flexible) and who you can trade out. 

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    1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Looking at Freddy's measurables, I think he is also undersized. But, for me, it's about weight, not height.

    And it's about attitude:

    Add the following to the lollipop guild:

    Khuz

    Spurge

    Brodin.  

    Buy why Brodin P-Jingles?  Watch JoBro anytime there's a scrum.  He's so sandpaper averse that he sometimes doesn't even tie up a guy in order to avoid any risk of unpleasantness

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    3 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    And it's about attitude:

    Add the following to the lollipop guild:

    Khuz

    Spurge

    Brodin.  

    Buy why Brodin P-Jingles?  Watch JoBro anytime there's a scrum.  He's so sandpaper averse that he sometimes doesn't even tie up a guy in order to avoid any risk of unpleasantness

    may even add trenin to this list - imagine him fight ..... he'll likely slip and fall before a punch is thrown.

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