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Under Bill Guerin's tenure as general manager, the Minnesota Wild produced their greatest product in franchise history. The 2021-22 season was a dream campaign, with a potent offensive attack fueled by emerging superstars and consistent secondary scoring up and down the lineup.
Minnesota captured the hearts of fans with its dramatic come-from-behind wins and put the rest of the league on notice with its 113-point season, which showed that Minnesota had graduated from blue-collar grinders to run-and-gun snipers.
The digital world erupted with praise for Wild GM Bill Guerin as the hashtag #InBillyWeTrust flooded message boards and social media platforms. He energized the fanbase with expectations that the 2021-22 team would hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup, only to be doused with devastation when the St. Louis Blues knocked them out in the first round!
Then, on June 29, 2022, the #InBillyWeTrust hashtag began to fade when the Wild shockingly traded rising star Kevin Fiala to the Los Angeles Kings.
Local sports reporters questioned and analyzed the blockbuster trade for weeks. Still, one media outlet began pushing ”HOPE,” clandestinely wrapped in optimism about the consequences of $14.7 million in dead cap money. They suggested that Guerin and the Wild only have to wait two more seasons before they can go on an off-season free-agency shopping spree to build and retain a high-octane roster capable of deep playoff runs.
This foundational narrative, The Wild will be cap-rich in two years, has been a staple of Minnesota hockey coverage content for the past four seasons. Still, Guerin’s stock began to drop when he handed out three long-term contracts with variable no-trade or no-movement clauses for aging players past their prime.
The grumblings got even louder from the fanbase that was looking forward to that shopping spree this offseason when Guerin locked in Brock Faber for 8 years at $8.5 million per year shortly after signing Yakov Trenin to another 4-year, $14 million contract. That leaves them $15.3 million to sign or re-sign five forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie for the 2025-26 season before they have to hand Kirill Kaprizov a giant bag of cash the following season.
Minnesota has left itself a $1.7 million average cap hit to spread out over those nine roster spots. It doesn’t feel like a giant free-agency splash is around the corner. Instead, it feels like Guerin is heavily relying on 2 to 3 prospects to hit their projected ceiling to make fans forget about the post-cap hell shopping spree that will never happen.
So, did the Wild GM checkmate himself by not securing secondary scoring from free agency this offseason? Or will his roster, which injuries ravaged last year, stifle the grumbling sideline GMs with a bounce-back season of 305 goals like they had in their 2021-22 season? By the way, that’s 57 goals more than they had last season.
Last year, the Wild roster's lack of secondary scoring resulted in 248 goals as a team. The two Western Conference Wild Card teams barely scored 20 more goals than the injury-riddled Wild. The Nashville Predators had 266 goals, and the Vegas Knights had 263 goals.
The Wild secured 39 wins last year, with bottom-six forwards playing top-six roster spots and AHLers playing for injured starters most of the season. The numbers show the Wild were 18 goals and nine wins away from securing a playoff spot with non-NHLers and two rookies supporting a superstar.
So, is Guerin betting on complementary scoring from bounce-back performances through Marcus Foligno, Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Johansson, and Frederick Gaudreau?
Did Guerin just push his chips in on support scoring from Ryan Hartman, Brock Faber, Marat Khusnutdinov, and newly acquired Yakov Trenin?
Is Guerin showing his rebuild map by betting on secondary scoring from Matt Boldy, Riley Heidt, Liam Ohgren, Danila Yurov, and Marco Rossi when he signed Yakov Trenin instead of a top-six winger?
Injuries sidelined Jared Spurgeon for most of the season, and he didn't score a single goal. That decline from his 11-goal performance the previous year was almost 5% of the team's total goals last year.
Suppose Spurgeon can regain his scoring touch with 10 goals next season, and the rest of the team – Gaudreau, Foligno, Mojo, Zuccarello, Faber, Hartman, Ohgren, and Khusnutdinov – manages just one more goal each than last season. Then, they'll match Nashville’s total from this past year.
Faber was a rookie last year who only scored eight goals while experiencing his first coaching change in the NHL and learning the league on the fly as a top-tier defenseman. If Brodin and Spurgeon average 11 goals a season, can Faber do the same next season? Between Spurgeon and Brock, that's 13 more goals the Wild didn’t have last season.
Liam Ohgren scored one goal in four games. How many can he get in a full season? If Riley Heidt makes the team, how many of his 117 points last season in the WHL will translate to his NHL rookie season? Will Zeev Buium join the team in April, and how often can he light the lamp for the Wild? Can Matt Boldy find the 40-goal mark this season?
Suppose the Wild’s goal-tending can reduce their 3.17 goals-against average to Nashville's 3.02 GAA. Will that translate to nine more wins this upcoming season to secure a playoff spot?
These are the questions that Bill Guerin has already answered with his quiet off-season. He’s investing in this roster to provide Kirill Kaprizov with the secondary scoring he needs in his pursuit to etch his name on the Stanley Cup next season.
One thing is for sure: There are no more roster spots or cap space to acquire more gritty role players. From here on out, the only transactions Guerin can make are upgrades. If this upcoming season is as disastrous as the last one, next year's off-season better have more activity than this one.
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