Is Bill Guerin Betting On Himself Or Just Overconfident?

He's hoping the prospects provide the improvement you'd get by paying top money for someone else.  The goal is for people to prove their worth for free for the Wild and with their players.  Rossi and Faber did and should get even better.

If he goes for the Laine bait, he better keep some of those or it will be foolish.

"These are the questions that Bill Guerin has already answered with his quiet off-season. He’s investing in this roster to provide Kirill Kaprizov with the secondary scoring he needs in his pursuit to etch his name on the Stanley Cup next season."

Who really believes this is the goal for the season? I am assuming by next you  are meaning the 24-25 season. Yes the NTC/NMC clauses aren't great, but maybe these are due to the kids not being ready yet. Would it be better to throw the young guys in, stall development and ruin confidence while then causing the future to be more in doubt?

Moose has a NMC for the next 2 seasons then Mod NTC. Hartman NMC this year, then Mod NTC the next 2. Freddy G has Mod NTC. Zucc has 2 years left, but not seeing any clauses on spotrac. NOJO has 1 year (unfortunately).  There are moves that can be made this year,  next year, and year after to move these contracts, or they will start falling off. It will all come down to what you are willing to add to get them off the team or take back if young guys come in and EARN a spot.

Nojo drops, Yurov comes in. Maybe trading Fred and Zucc to desperate/contender teams to open up more 2 more spots for Heidt and Haight. Also players like Rossi and Khus need new contracts as they are RFA.

I don't think this year is cup or bust and the team is set up for a youth movement over the next year to 3, which is not what most people want to hear but team building from internal prospects takes time. This is what will prove if its "over confidence or winning bet".

 Instead, it feels like Guerin is heavily relying on 2 to 3 prospects to hit their projected ceiling to make fans forget about the post-cap hell shopping spree that will never happen. 

This IMO is Guerin's strategy.  Gamble that the apathetic old core which was middling in it's prime season's can re-claim their prior glory (not a high % bet) and then complement the lineup with unproven prospects who we're betting will step in and be needle moving contributors from day 1.  Yes, I think this is Guerin hubris on full display.  Time will tell if it works but if it gong's no one can say, "but what were the other options"

This fan would have preferred to see Middle's and another old core traded for up-and-coming middle 6rs (Domi, Frederic, Beruzzi, this type of player) to sprinkle into the lineup.  As it sits now we'll have an old middling core + a couple 20-21 yr olds (best case) to run with 97, Ek and Boldy.  

Guerin took the least creative, safest route after boldly cutting Parise and Suter loose.  Guerin is too one-dimensional for the role.  And I haven't even factored in that his Fentonian tendencies have forced out our cap guy (kind of important right now for this team) and caused investigations.

#Mondaymorninghottake

This next season is going to be a treading water season mostly.  The best we can hope for with secondary scoring is the maturity of a few young guys and a renaissance of a few old guys.  

I don't think it is that big of a long shot though.  It's up to Heinz really.  Can he create that 2nd line without breaking up the 1st line?  Can he duct tape a bunch of vets together and form a solid bottom 6?

I think it is plausible with a little luck with health and a return to form from injury.  

Goaltending though... that seems like a coin flip. 

I think the most egregious mistake made in the past season was locking up too many spots and not giving Yurov what he wanted to come over. With Kap's deadline coming up and the cap hit coming off it would have been a prime year to bring him in and let him get acclimated to the pace and size of the NHL. He also would likely have be a ready contributor to push the secondary scoring. Tear off the bandaid, send Nojo and Freddy to the A and let the kids cook so they can have some seasoning before we are making a deep run. 

Kap-Ek-Boldy

Yurov- Rossi- Zucc(or Heidt)

Ohgren- Hartman- Foligno

Lauko- Khus- Trenin 

Brodin -Faber

Sprug - Mids

Bogosian - Chisholm

I am optimistic for the season.  Spurgeon returning should give us 4 rock solid D-men and a viable 3rd pairing.   I expect a solid 1st line.  We appear to have a variety of players that can make up viable 3rd and 4th lines.  I think our biggest question is whether or not we can put together a 2nd scoring line.   Rossi at center... but with who.  

1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

Rossi at center... but with who.  

I think this is key. We need someone to step up this year. It sure would be fun. I’m still holding out hope for Yurov to come over at the end of the year. Also if we pick up a decent player at the trade deadline we should have a better chance at keeping them long term compared to the last few seasons. Overall to start 24-25 Ohgren is our best bet IMO. 

2 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

I’m still holding out hope for Yurov to come over at the end of the year.

This, I wouldn't bet on. The draw for Yurov to return to Russia was to defend their championship. Their team is still really good and I'd predict they make it at least to the final 4 for the Gangarin Cup. The timeline for that likely goes way past what would help us out even in the 1st round of the playoffs. My expectation is making the playoffs and out in 6-7 games. 

Dino's team was way out of the picture so he was able to come over with a lot of games left to play. Yurov's team won, and they were in it far longer than our season. Of course, the same thing happened with Haight too. 

The thing is, we want Yurov's team to do well, and Yurov to be in the thick of their top 6. That's the best development we can get, and it gets Yurov very used to winning. I still think he could add some strength before he gets here, much like Kaprizov did before he got here. 

4 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

I am optimistic for the season.  Spurgeon returning should give us 4 rock solid D-men and a viable 3rd pairing. 

Thanks for the optimism on Spurgeon. I still don't carry that, maybe because of been through a few surgeries, though minor. I can tell you from my experience that Spurgeon will need to get banged around a few times and be ok. The mind was the last thing to heal, knowing there was an injury and being convinced or confident that it was ok. Perhaps that happens in training camp or the preseason, or it make take a few games in the regular season? 

I don't know the answer. He can talk a good game, but unless you've been there, you don't really know how the mind holds a player back. 

Here's some Laine news on the national front:

Quote

I think honestly, Don Waddell did not want to trade him until other teams had a chance to talk to him. He doesn’t know the player. He’s new in Columbus, he doesn’t have a relationship with Patrik. And he doesn’t want to be that guy that trades players to another team or misrepresenting what that player can be.

NHL Rumors: Do the Montreal Canadiens Have Any Kind of Interest in Patrik Laine?

So it’s up to the teams that are interested in how to contact the Blue Jackets. They’ve gotten permission from the Blue Jackets to speak directly to his agent Andy Scott so all that they’ve been waiting for this summer going back before the draft before free agency, now they can start to proceed with.”

I'm really hoping that Guerin is at least investigating this. I think there's a deal to be made here, and I think it will be beneficial to the Wild. However, there is an investigation that needs to take place before we even put in an offer. I think Guerin would need to lay down some expectations and communicate them with Laine and see how he responds. 

After that, there's a lot to work out, CBJ retaining, taking on salary, and prospects + picks going the other way. Obtaining this player does help Kaprizov now and does add secondary scoring. He would help us win even though he is a bit of a liability defensively. If he puts in the effort, though, I think I can live with that.

7 hours ago, IllicitFive said:

"These are the questions that Bill Guerin has already answered with his quiet off-season. He’s investing in this roster to provide Kirill Kaprizov with the secondary scoring he needs in his pursuit to etch his name on the Stanley Cup next season."

Who really believes this is the goal for the season? I am assuming by next you  are meaning the 24-25 season. Yes the NTC/NMC clauses aren't great, but maybe these are due to the kids not being ready yet. Would it be better to throw the young guys in, stall development and ruin confidence while then causing the future to be more in doubt?

Moose has a NMC for the next 2 seasons then Mod NTC. Hartman NMC this year, then Mod NTC the next 2. Freddy G has Mod NTC. Zucc has 2 years left, but not seeing any clauses on spotrac. NOJO has 1 year (unfortunately).  There are moves that can be made this year,  next year, and year after to move these contracts, or they will start falling off. It will all come down to what you are willing to add to get them off the team or take back if young guys come in and EARN a spot.

Nojo drops, Yurov comes in. Maybe trading Fred and Zucc to desperate/contender teams to open up more 2 more spots for Heidt and Haight. Also players like Rossi and Khus need new contracts as they are RFA.

I don't think this year is cup or bust and the team is set up for a youth movement over the next year to 3, which is not what most people want to hear but team building from internal prospects takes time. This is what will prove if its "over confidence or winning bet".

Im sure Kaprizov has a different of opinion here.

They have a ton of money to spend next year.  Even if they sign Kaprizov to a 10.5 million dollar contract or even a 11.5 million dollar contract they still will have well over 10 million to sign someone to replace Johanson, Merrill and Chisholm.  Wallstedt will replace Fluery.  

Riley Hiedt, Liam Ohgren, Lambos, Kumpulainen, the new draft pick, maybe Strammel.  These won't be front line players they will be future front line players.  And even though we are paying Gudreau and Foglino, nothing says they can't sit in the press box if Hiedt or someone else is playing better than them.  

I think the Blue Jackets are looking to trade Laine to the team that does not require them to hold 50% of the salary. That is not the Wild. Fortunately. I don't think bringing in a high risk player like Laine is what the Wild need. They are already rolling the dice on a lot of prospects making it don't need to roll more on a veteran head case.  If Guerin feels he needs to do this to influence or bait Kaprizov it's already too late

This is not a shot at the author, but I am looking forward to the season starting so we have some new content to read about.  All this stuff has been talked about ad nauseum lol.  

All depends on what we give up for Laine, but if he helps us win games and keeps Kap even a little happier that is worth the shot. If we can move Foligno, Fred, Nojo, or Zuccy in the process that is a win. Need to at least move out a couple of them by the trade deadline this year... Really hoping that is Billy's plan. Hoping Fred and Nojo come back this year pissed about last season, put together solid years and are moveable at the deadline. 

14 hours ago, AOWild said:

Im sure Kaprizov has a different of opinion here.

Well of course players are always playing to win, that's the goal. Wonderful thing about being a fan, you are able to look at it through a different lens. I am not a player on the team otherwise yes, its for the cup, always. As a fan, not competing, realism is a thing.

Maybe even move Laine at the deadline depending on what we gave up for him and what we can get for him. Seemed like it worked really well for the Coyotes. 

17 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

sign Kaprizov to a 10.5 million dollar contract or even a 11.5 million dollar contract they still will have well over 10 million to sign someone to replace Johanson, Merrill and Chisholm.  Wallstedt will replace Fluery.  

 

I'm afraid you're $2 or $3 million low on your estimate for Kaprizov.  He's getting $9 million now, and he's proven he's a top 10 in the league talent.  Not to mention the salary cap increases expected between now and 2026-27.

Kap is going to get paid $13 million a year or more probably.