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By Robert Brent -
The Minnesota Wild and Bill Guerin completed a significant transaction when they signed star defender Brock Faber to a long-term contract extension. The University of Minnesota product will be a cornerstone for years to come and is already a vital player. We've already discussed Faber's contract extension regarding its value, but there's another way to view the newly-inked defender's deal.
When the Wild and Faber signed on the dotted line, the team showed its commitment to building through high-quality defenders. Faber’s contract isn't the first time the Wild have shown dedication to their blue line; it's just the latest example of an apparent strategy to spend a notable portion of team-building resources on their defenseman.
A History of Financial Commitment
Brock Faber's extension may be the biggest story of the offseason, but it isn't the first time Guerin has chosen to spend big-time money to extend a defenseman. One of Guerin's first moves as general manager was inking Jared Spurgeon to a seven-year extension worth $7.575 million average annual value (AAV). The year after Spurgeon extended, blue line mainstay Jonas Brodin earned a new contract worth $6-million AAV for seven years. Before Faber's extension this offseason, Guerin extended Jake Middleton for four years, paying him $4.35-million AAV.
All these extensions add up to one thing. The Wild are already banking on four defensemen to be worth significant money. When Faber and Middleton's contract extensions kick in during the 2025-26 season, the Wild will have $27.65 million committed to their signed defenseman. Aside from the Boston Bruins, that's more than any team in the NHL has devoted to their defense that far in the future. They also rank seventh in dollars committed per player, devoting an average of $5.53 million to their signed D-men.
With Spurgeon and Brodin aging, the team can divest itself of the money they’re spending on defensemen via trades. However, Bill Guerin has already shown a penchant for spending ample financial resources on his defense.
Using Draft Capital
If you’ve ever seen a nature documentary, you may know that sea turtles lay their eggs on land. A sea turtle will lay over 100 eggs, ensuring that some baby turtles make it after hatching and embarking on the treacherous journey to the water, even if most don’t. Minnesota has treated drafting defensemen in the same way under Guerin.
Under Guerin’s stewardship, Minnesota has selected 32 prospects in the NHL Entry Draft. Of those 32 players, 14 are defensemen. Drafting a defenseman with 43.75% of a team’s picks is the second-most in the NHL during that time. Since the 2020 draft, only four franchises have used more than 40% of their draft picks on defenders, while the league average is 31.6%. The Wild hope that if they spend enough draft capital, some of their prospects will eventually become impact players or at least play significant NHL minutes.
The benefit of investing such a significant amount of draft capital in defense is hard to measure. The league, fans, and media met the Wild's choice to take Zeev Buium with critical acclaim. If he lives up to his potential, Minnesota could have another franchise cornerstone to pair with Faber. It's too early to tell, though.
Similarly, Carson Lambos is the other first-round blueliner Guerin drafted during his tenure, and he has yet to see NHL minutes. We're projecting a possible breakout year for Lambos, which would begin to justify Minnesota’s decision to spend so much draft capital on defenders.
D-men typically take a bit longer to develop than forwards, so we won’t know how many of Guerin's proverbial turtles will make it to the NHL for a while.
Evaluating Roster Construction
The pattern is clear: Bill Guerin and the Minnesota Wild are strategically building the team with an emphasis on the blue line. Identifying patterns and trends has some merit, but the real value comes in evaluating whether these trends represent a positive outlook. What’s the opportunity cost of the Wild constructing their roster this way? Does allocating roster resources in this way usually have a good outcome for other rosters with a similar makeup?
The most obvious consequence is not being able to spend money on other parts of the roster. Minnesota’s forward group could become shallow. Matt Boldy is already earning a significant salary ($7 million AAV), and the Wild must offer Kirill Kaprizov considerable money to extend him. Guerin and Co. will likely be happy with their blue line and top-end forward talent but must do some bargain-bin shopping elsewhere. However, this is all theoretical. Comparing the results of teams with similar makeups is the best way to project whether this philosophy of roster construction has the potential to yield positive results.
Defense Wins Championships…?
Winning the Stanley Cup is the ultimate measure of success in the NHL. Let's look at the last four teams to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup, including critical factors that make up their roster construction. The factors we'll look at include how much each club spent on their forwards, defensemen, and goaltenders – and the cap percentage that money represented. Because we're looking at the Wild through the lens of what resources they've allocated to their defense, it's also essential to include each team's highest-paid defender.
*Note: The data used is the team’s cap space post trade deadline
2024 Florida Panthers
- Forwards: $49,776,667 (59.6%)
- Defenseman: $21,986,667 (26.3%)
- Goaltenders: $11,100,000 (13.3%)
- Highest Paid Defender: Aaron Ekblad ($7,500,000, 9%)
2023 Vegas Golden Knights
- Forwards: $44,347,500 (53.8%)
- Defenseman: $27,994,150 (33.9%)
- Goaltenders: $8,166,667 (9.9%)
- Highest Paid Defender: Alex Pietrangelo ($8,800,000, 10.7%)
2022 Colorado Avalanche
- Forwards: $44,033,333 (54%)
- Defenseman: $30,669,167 (37.6%)
- Goaltenders: $5,500,000 (6.7%)
- Highest Paid Defender: Cale Makar ($9,000,000, 11%)
2021 Tampa Bay Lightning
- Forwards: $45,766,666 (56.2%)
- Defenseman: $24,237,500 (29.7%)
- Goaltenders: $10,800,000, (13.3%)
- Highest Paid Defender: Victor Hedman ($7,875,000, 9.7%)
Key Takeaways
While this is just a cursory glance, there are some key takeaways from this data. First, it is common for a Stanley Cup-winning team to spend significant resources on their defense. Florida is an outlier, but the other three clubs spent around 30% of their cap or more on defenders.
It also appears that having a bona fide No. 1 defenseman is crucial to a successful team. Makar and Hedman have won Norris trophies as the league's best defenders. Pietrangelo and Ekblad have yet to win the trophy but have finished in the top 10 in voting.
What does this mean for the Wild? Primarily that it’s possible to succeed while allocating so many resources to their defense. One can argue whether who specifically they've decided to build around is the right choice, but that's an entirely different discussion. We’re talking about team-building philosophy and resource allocation. Brock Faber's contract extension represents a particularly crucial step in this plan because the team has secured what they consider to be their future all-star defender. They'll have to make frugal moves elsewhere on the roster, but Bill Guerin is committed to building from the blue line out.
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