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  • Charlie Stramel Deserves Another Shot


    Image courtesy of John Mersits / USA TODAY NETWORK
    Tony Abbott

     

    Charlie Stramel was supposed to hit the reset button this season. Coach Tony Granato coached the Wisconsin Badgers to one of their worst seasons in recent memory and put pressure on 18-year-old Stramel immediately as a top-line center. Stramel only mustered five goals and 12 points in 33 games in his freshman season.

    Everything about the following summer screamed fresh start. The Minnesota Wild still liked his physical toolkit -- namely, his 6-foot-3, 223 lbs. frame and his skating -- enough to take him with the 21st pick in the 2023 NHL Draft. Out went Granato, and in came Minnesota State Mankato coach Mike Hastings, with some of his old players following. The change should have allowed Stramel to put his freshman season behind him and spend his sophomore year on a more talented, structured team.

    Wisconsin got more talented and structured, finishing second in the Big Ten standings and making the NCAA tournament. But that came at a price, at least for Stramel. Hastings imported three of Wisconsin's top five forwards in scoring -- David Silye (age 25), Simon Tassy (23), and Christian Fitzgerald (21) -- from Mankato. Hockey fans know that NHL coaches like to play their guys, players they know, like, and are familiar with. Hastings was no exception, and in all fairness to him, look at the results. 

    It didn't go well for Stramel, though. He suffered an early injury, which seemed to put him behind the 8-ball, and he never truly caught up. All of that conspired to keep him in fourth-line minutes all season, and he scored only three goals and eight points in 34 games.

    Nobody can spin having two straight lost seasons into being a good thing. It's also true that Stramel was perceived as a lower-ceiling player, at least compared to an immensely skilled Gabriel Perreault, who went off the board two picks later and has 18 goals and 57 points for the Frozen Four-bound Boston College Eagles. If anyone says that the New York Rangers look better for picking Perreault than the Wild for picking Stramel, that's pretty indisputable right now.

    All that can be true. Even so, the vitriol toward the pick on draft day was too far, and it's only ratcheted up in intensity as Stramel muddled through a season of fourth-line duty. From the jump, it's been a race to be the first (and loudest) to call Stramel a bust. There is no word yet on what the prize the NHL is offering for the winner will be.

    If we want to compare hit rates, though, the Minnesota Wild's scouting staff has a much stronger track record than the Fans Who Cried "Bust!" You only need to look to last year to find a high-profile miss, when people practically left Marco Rossi for dead after he scored one point in 19 games. Now, he's in the running to finish as a Calder Trophy finalist after a 20-goal season.

    We can do more. The same doubts were cast over Matt Boldy after he struggled through a disaster in the first half of his Draft+1 year at Boston College. Boldy scored one goal and three points in his first 15 games after the Wild made him the No. 12 overall pick in the 2019 Draft. Like Stramel, Boldy even got snubbed from Team USA's World Junior camp. Once Boldy found a role that suited him, the rest was history.

    And, of course, there's the Ur example of the Wild taking Joel Eriksson Ek over Burnsville native Brock Boeser in 2015. Boeser is a great player, cracking the 30-goal mark for the first time this season, with a good shot at putting up 40 goals for the Vancouver Canucks this year. You'll probably die wandering the wilderness before you find a Wild fan who would go back in time and reverse that decision.

    Giving the Wild fan base some credit, let's look at Danila Yurov, the guy Minnesota didn't declare a bust despite having a fairly similar journey to Stramel. When the Wild drafted Yurov at 24th overall in 2022, he was coming off a season in which he scored zero points in 40 KHL games (regular season and playoffs). The following year, he only scored 12 in 70 KHL contests.

    It wouldn't have been difficult to write him off, but Minnesota prospect watchers intuitively understood that Yurov's role in the KHL was not suited to what he did best. He neither got the ice time nor on-ice opportunities a prospect needs to flourish in any league. Once he did, he went out and bested the KHL points record for a 20-year-old player.

    If Wild fans can extend that kind of grace to a dude from Chelyabinsk, why can't they do the same for a player who grew up in Rosemount? The last time he played for a program that wasn't completely terrible and gave him more than fourth-line minutes was two years ago with the US Development Program. He scored 15 points (7 goals) in 16 USHL games and 22 points (10 goals) in 26 games with the Under-18 USA team, then 2 goals and 5 points in 6 games at the Under-18 World Juniors. Pretty good!

    Fans should remember that whether they liked the pick or not, there were good reasons for the Wild to take Stramel in the first round. He has a rare combination of size and skating ability, which is valuable for a team short on size for quite some time. Targeting size in the draft is probably a better way to get bigger than overpaying for free agents or trading Calder-contending rookies because they're 5'9".

    They should also remember that a 19-year-old kid has almost no say in any of this. A player can control what they do on the ice but can't pick where they get drafted. They can't stop their teams from changing coaches and bringing an influx of older, more experienced top-six players. They can't call their own number to boost their ice time.

    None of this is to say that Stramel will be a star, go down as Minnesota's best possible use of that No. 21 pick, or even have a half-decent NHL career. That's uncertain, as it is with most hockey players drafted in their 20s. Sometimes, teams get "A GUY" in Eriksson Ek. But sometimes they get "a guy" like Jack Roslovic, and sometimes you get a guy who bounces around and never quite sticks like Colin White. Anyone who can identify exactly who will become what on Draft Day, or even one or two years past it, is probably lying to you.

    We don't know where Stramel will end up next year, but the Wild would be doing a disservice to their top pick by not encouraging him to find some kind of fresh start. Whether that's getting on the same page as Hastings in Wisconsin, hitting the transfer portal to change schools, or switching to Major Junior, something's gotta happen because the status quo isn't working.

    At some point, if things do not work out for Stramel, he will be the common denominator in a string of lost seasons. But at the very least, he deserves to get a shot in a situation that isn't actively undermining him before we make that decision. If he doesn't work out in five years, there will be plenty of time to re-litigate the 2023 draft. In the meantime, it just feels like a less soul-crushing path to hope he finds a place where he can click rather than pronounce within nine months of draft day. 

     

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    Always hope for more than a 4th line forward with a 1st round pick, but doesn't always work out. He's young and could still become useful a few years down the road. Hopefully has some drive to develop and succeed with his next team.

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    The thing is, if Heidt or Kumpulainen end up better scorers than Stramel, shit happens.  I posted the team stats a few days ago, and their offense wasn't always the main issue.  I'd maintain the Wild need a better defensive structure and team size more than offense to see the team succeed.  Stramel was picked for need.  It's entirely possible he never gets past the AHL.  But if he is what Brackett and Guerin picked him for (a 3rd/4th line power forward or center with size) and uses that size to clear some space for more skilled teammates, I don't see the issue.  If a few people hit big before he does, there's not going to many spots for him other than those lines anyway.

    You have to stop other teams somehow.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    It's way too early to declare him a bust. With his size and skating you would think a Nico Sturm/Brandon Duhaime role should be pretty achievable.  And possibly more.  Look at Jared Spurgeons career. It's pretty crazy to think how many guys don't make it simply due to the lack of opportunities. (The right coach or the right system)

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    He's not the future top-6 C with size everyone has been longing for but I don't think he's necessarily a wasted pick. We need size on this team, especially in the bottom-6, and he should be able to provide that. 

     

    But yeah, its looking like his ceiling is probably that of a 3rd liner. It sucks but it is what it is. He can still carve out a valuable role on our future team and help provide some physical presence that's sorely lacking from most of the roster aside from Foligno. 

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    The Boldy comparison is apple to oranges. Boldy had over double the production in his last year playing for U18 squad and over double the production his first two years in college plus his one year in the U20 tournament he had seven times the production as stramel.. 

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    Physically, the guy is gifted no doubt... but is the work ethic there?  I think that will be the difference.  I can see the issue with the nepotistic coach.  

    Change of scenery?

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    38 minutes ago, Patrick said:

    It's way too early to declare him a bust. With his size and skating you would think a Nico Sturm/Brandon Duhaime role should be pretty achievable.  And possibly more.  Look at Jared Spurgeons career. It's pretty crazy to think how many guys don't make it simply due to the lack of opportunities. (The right coach or the right system)

    Or how some elite Swedes just never go away after they stink twice for MN during two whole seasons and play good for just two months once before the playoffs with one flashy post-season goal.

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    1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

    But if he is what Brackett and Guerin picked him for (a 3rd/4th line power forward or center with size) and uses that size to clear some space for more skilled teammates

    If he was drafted in the 1st round to be a big body pylon I'd argue this player is found in the 3rd round, not the 1st round.  I'd argue that he was drafted to be a top six/middle six offensive contributor.  If he turns out to be James Sheppard 2.0 it's a fail (big body, zero offense, not physical either).  Not unprecedented for a late first rounder to be a dud, but we cannot string together too many years of 1st round duds after the prospect cupboard was left bare.

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    Then I will just do what has been subtly suggested as a joke a couple times: reverse the Heidt and Stramel picks and not think too hard until actual shit happens.  It's the same difference either way.  It's just 32 teams (including the Wild) not picking Heidt early).  What a weird way things work out well.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    1 hour ago, Will D. Ness said:

    nepotistic coach.  

    It's 3 forwards out of 12, and they are better players. Coaches have an obligation to play their best players to get results for their team. He cannot worry about developmental minutes for a forward that doesn't have the same skill level as the 9+ forwards ahead of him. He hasn't thrived under 2 different coaches now.

    If he were really skilled, he would be playing major minutes. It's on him to develop his skillset. Perhaps he will do better once he's removed from the college environment and can focus solely on hockey development.

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    1 hour ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    But yeah, its looking like his ceiling is probably that of a 3rd liner. It sucks but it is what it is. He can still carve out a valuable role on our future team and help provide some physical presence that's sorely lacking from most of the roster aside from Foligno. 

    The thing about that is that David Edstrom is probably a better player for that role. I'm not ready to call Stramel an outright bust, but the expectations are really low.

    Quote

    Mechanically, David Edstrom has some of the better skating fundamentals in the draft class. He has decent acceleration and keeps his feet moving in all situations. His overall speed is good along with his balance being above average. The balancing gives him an advantage when combined with his size and strength, as he is often using it to protect the puck along the board or apply pressure on the backcheck.

    He also is quick to get in on the forecheck and even faster at getting back in his own zone. The only downside is that he needs to get a bit more muscle to fully reach the potential of a 6-foot-3 two-way center. His edges are okay, although nothing to write home about. They are good enough to make him agile enough to move effectively with the puck. However, they also lack a bit of refinement that would give him the ability to become a far more dynamic offensive player. Especially if he is to take the next step and become an effective middle-six center in the NHL.

    One of the most impressive abilities of David Edstrom’s game has to be his competitive level in the defensive zone. He works harder than most on the backcheck and along the boards he is able to put a stop to many attacks.

    Edstrom is playing in a much better league with full grown men(average age for his team is over 25) and producing a bit more than Stramel. Even for that player type, I think Stramel was a reach, and he almost certainly will never be the point producer that some of the others available could develop into at the NHL level.

    While it would be nice for Stramel to develop into a better player than Greenway, that's kind of looking like an optimal outcome given where he is at today.

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    2 hours ago, Patrick said:

    Nico Sturm/Brandon Duhaime role should be pretty achievable. 

    If we spent a 1st on Brandon Duhaime or Sturm Brackett should be walked out in hand cuffs

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    2 hours ago, Patrick said:

    Look at Jared Spurgeons career. It's pretty crazy to think how many guys don't make it simply due to the lack of opportunities. (The right coach or the right system)

    God not this argument again.  Rossi wasn't being given the right opportunities, until what changed??? Marco Rossi's play changed.  Rossi created his opportunity by playing at a level that was above any of coaches other options.  Thing that's concerning about Stramel is that he's shitting the bed in a league where half of the league (or less) will play in the NHL.  Past performance is best indicator of future results.  Rossi tore it up in juniors, then took some time to adapt to NHL.  Now he's adapted.  Stramel is still trying to figure out how to get over on a bunch of competition that'll be driving a tractor for a job a few years from now.

    #hotstrameltakereadyfortable13

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    40 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    It's the same difference either way.

    It's not the same difference because the Boston's of the world use 1st round Stramel pick for a player that's contributing in NHL in couple years

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    2 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    It's 3 forwards out of 12, and they are better players. Coaches have an obligation to play their best players to get results for their team. He cannot worry about developmental minutes for a forward that doesn't have the same skill level as the 9+ forwards ahead of him. He hasn't thrived under 2 different coaches now.

    If he were really skilled, he would be playing major minutes. It's on him to develop his skillset. Perhaps he will do better once he's removed from the college environment and can focus solely on hockey development.

    I don't know any details.  It is pretty clear though that he needs to find greener pastures.

    Edited by Will D. Ness
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    Brackett picked Juolevi instead of Matthew Tkachuk. 

    That by itself makes me question pretty much everything Brackett does. I've heard that was on the GM of the time. Okay. Pretty weird though. Stramel has a lot of things that can't be taught or manufactured. 

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    Stramel needs to get out of Wisconsin and go play in Iowa and get coaching and opportunity.  I would rather he get 70+ games of development in a season instead of 30+.

     

    He is young, big, and has some freakish physical traits, but when he was picked I thought "Who?"   I think he would have been on the board in the next round after his bad freshman season.  He still has a few years before he can be declared a bust.

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    3 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

    work ethic

    Not going to be a problem. Big, strong, aggressive and tenacious. Gotta see him up close and in board battles. He’s going to be a fan favorite. I absolutely loved this pick and player. There’s always a place for what he can bring to a team. These players are hard to trade for. Can’t wait to see him playing a role the Wild desperately need. I don’t think we’re going to be waiting as long as people think.Ceiling? 3rd line and affordable.

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    6 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Always hope for more than a 4th line forward with a 1st round pick

    Hope doesn't overcome a bad pick, though. CoughPhilipJohanssonCough

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    Didn't like the pick from the get go. It was a reach because billy was so hung up about getting big.

    That's not to say stramel is or will be a bust, still very young, I just thought this was a move made based on size and I don't like that. 

    I get you can't have a tiny lineup all the way through but passing higher end skill for large size isn't a recipe for success.

    Hopefully stramel can turn it around but I don't ever see him being a top 6 player. 

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    Judd passed on Matt Thachuk ?  I didn’t know that. Definitely changes my opinion of him. I get missing on random kids but someone of his pedigree, size and skill is crazy. Especially when his father was such a stud . I don’t like Matt’s antics but I love his game. He is playoff hockey ! Reminds me of Chris  Drury. . Playoff specialist . The wild need players like that , not regular season darlings. 

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    "passing higher end skill for large size isn't a recipe for success."

    Tell that to Nashville, which always seemed to truck the Wild more often than not.  Trying to score goals is great until a big player comes along and always clogs up passing lanes or pushes people off the puck.

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    Russo wrote about Stramel yesterday in the Athletic. The kid has had a rough go of it his first two seasons in college. His Dad died. That had to have rocked him. Wisconsin put too much on the kid last year as a 17/18 year old with marginal talent and poor coaching around him. This year, according to Russo, there are several high draft picks and prospects that have had big regression years or down right ugly years. At least a couple quit the team. I am pretty sure Stramel will hit the transfer portal and hopefully he lands somewhere he can be developed properly and get the support he needs. Perhaps he never amounts to much. It happens. Perhaps he grows his game and succeeds. What is the expectation for a mid first round draft pick? Who knows. 

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