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  • Can the Wild Get Better By Standing Pat?


    Image courtesy of Stephen R. Sylvanie - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    The NHL's salary cap is on the rise, but the league's economy might be about to grind to a halt.

    There's a flow to player movement. There are usually a group of teams looking to reset their competitive window, and a team of buyers looking to fuel them with futures for the price of taking the sellers' good players off their hands.

    But unless a team is interested in the Pittsburgh Penguins and their slightly used Rickard Rakell or Bryan Rust, that might not happen this offseason. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic recently quoted a GM as saying, "Almost everyone is looking to add or get better." 

    That's bad news for the Minnesota Wild, for whom the buyout shackles are finally off their wrist and are ready to make a splash. In a world where the Buffalo Sabres were looking to trade Tage Thompson, the Detroit Red Wings were shopping Dylan Larkin, or Brady Tkachuk was trying to find a way to leave the Ottawa Senators, the Wild might have been able to do that. 

    But in a world where even last-place teams like the Chicago Blackhawks or San Jose Sharks are done trying to bottom out? The road for the Wild to improve gets a lot rockier. 

    Or does it?

    "I don't want to sit on my hands at all, and I'm kind of tired of doing that," Bill Guerin said in May,

    In March, he said, "[July is] going to be a time where organizationally, we make a step."

    However, Minnesota might be in as good a position as anyone to improve without a huge shake-up.

    The Wild only punched their ticket to the playoffs in the last 20 seconds of the season, when Joel Eriksson Ek scored a game-tying goal against a dreadful Anaheim Ducks team to clinch their spot.

    While that suggests the Wild are a bubble playoff team, the truth is that with a reasonably healthy year from Kirill Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek, Minnesota would have been an easy playoff team. Yes, even with "one hand tied behind their back," as Guerin occasionally says of their cap situation.

    The Wild are (currently) set to return most of that team from last season, and are already making three major additions, without spending a dime in free agency. Top prospects Zeev Buium, Danila Yurov, and David Jiříček are all expected to be on the roster next year. You can probably add in a fourth by penciling in Liam Öhgren in the lineup.

    That's the 12th overall pick from last year's draft, plus three top-25 picks from the 2022 Draft. Playoff teams usually aren't in a position to add four highly-touted first-rounders in a single offseason. That's reserved for young, up-and-coming teams after years of painful rebuilding.

    However, the Wild are in exactly that spot.

    Of course, it's important to temper expectations a bit. We don't know which players are ready to step into huge roles and which require more time. But even two of those four being ready for prime time next season would make a significant impact. 

    Even beyond the injuries and the prospects, the Wild still have room to improve next year. Their young core currently includes Matt Boldy (24), Marco Rossi (23), and Brock Faber (22). All three players have room to improve next season.

    The State of Hockey is still waiting for that elusive Boldy breakout season, even though he is coming off a career-high 73-point campaign. Still, the organization and its fans believe there's more meat on that bone. His final 20 games (including playoffs) suggest that, as he scored 11 goals and 24 points over that time. If his 2025-26 season can resemble the first and last 20 games of last year, and not the middle 48, we could see something truly special.

    Rossi put together a second-straight 20-goal season while managing to take his playmaking up a notch as the Wild's top-line center. The trade rumors surrounding him have been on full blast this offseason, but a combination of a thin center market and Minnesota's not-so-stellar job of selling him could keep him in Minnesota. If Rossi is back in St. Paul, he'll be motivated to either prove to the Wild he's part of their future or put on a show to audition for another spot. His work ethic to get better next season can't be questioned.

    Then there's Faber, whose disastrous second half plummeted him to the fourth-worst season in the NHL, per Evolving-Hockey's Standings Points Above Replacement. Faber cost the Wild 3.3 points in the standings last season. Still, no one believes that it represents his true talent level. With a smarter plan to keep his workload in check, Faber should look much better as a top-pairing defenseman.

    Sure, it might be preferable to see the Wild add a bona-fide No. 1 center, if you're not sold on Rossi. But with reasonable health, a wave of prospects arriving, and their young stars continuing their upward trajectory, they might not need a huge shake-up. Suppose Minnesota can limit itself to adding a top-six winger around the edges. Then, it would complement a promising core without ripping out any of the foundation of what the organization is building. As loath as Guerin is to sit on his hands, it might be the best way to set up the Wild to win in the near term.

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    1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

    you don't think Trenin outplayed his 3.5MM contract in the PO? that's interesting....

    It's the other 82 games that make T-Diaper's contract a major fail.

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    1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    It's the other 82 games that make T-Diaper's contract a major fail.

    yeah true but if he brings it during PO - then i'm ok. i am not too worried about him as 3/4 liner. 

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    23 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    whats the big deal with MJ's contract?

    It's a roster spot and there's only 23 of them! There's no upside with Johansson and you know what you getting, not very much. Use the roster spot for development and seeing what you can get from a prospect. 

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    9 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    you don't think Trenin outplayed his 3.5MM contract in the PO? that's interesting.

    No I don't. And anyone with half a brain wouldn't either.

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    41 minutes ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

    It's a roster spot and there's only 23 of them! There's no upside with Johansson and you know what you getting, not very much. Use the roster spot for development and seeing what you can get from a prospect. 

    for 800k you are getting fine value. if someone outperforms his 30+ pts, they can have his job. we are not in "development" phase. we need performance. whatever you think of MJ - he delivered more than rooks and he actually performed towards the end and actually showed some zing in PO. again 800K, why the tears?

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    36 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    why the tears?

    Tears of laughter. Sometimes I read your stuff and just laugh at how ludicrous it is. Trenin played like a $6M player in the playoffs? I'm still chuckling about that zinger. How come there were no bold responses with comparisons to the Florida players I pointed out making less than $6M? Waiting to read that you think Rossi held Trenin back in the playoffs. That would really make me cry!

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    7 minutes ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

    Tears of laughter. Sometimes I read your stuff and just laugh at how ludicrous it is. Trenin played like a $6M player in the playoffs? I'm still chuckling about that zinger. How come there were no bold responses with comparisons to the Florida players I pointed out making less than $6M? Waiting to read that you think Rossi held Trenin back in the playoffs. That would really make me cry!

     laughter is always good but you have to be honest with yourself sometimes zona - and trenin did play very well in the PO. bold responses to who? Trenin gets paid 3.5 and was one of the most physical players on the ice for us. if FL replaces lundell with him - things would not look out of place. that is a reality. if that is the type of player Trenin will be during PO - then 3.5 is a steal. 

    Edited by OldDutchChip
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