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  • What's Next For the Wild With Brock Nelson Off the Board?


    Image courtesy of Brace Hemmelgam - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    When Bill Guerin told the media at his end-of-year presser that he would be looking for "centers" this offseason, we knew exactly what he meant. Minnesota native Brock Nelson was the guy the Wild had their eyes set on, and that wasn't just the local media saying it. In January, John Buccigross called Minnesota's desire to add Nelson in free agency "The worst-kept secret in hockey" on national television.

    After Wednesday, the Colorado Avalanche kicked the tentpole of Minnesota's summer plans out from under it. The Avs acquired Nelson at the trade deadline and inked the center to a three-year contract with a reasonable $7.5 million AAV.

    While some are relieved Minnesota didn't have the chance to outbid Colorado for Nelson's services, you can also understand why the Wild were so hopeful to land him.

    The 6-foot-4 center would have fit the bill for giving the Wild a size upgrade down the middle, and he pairs his size with elite speed, which he's maintained even through his age-33 season. Was he the missing piece to get Minnesota on a deep playoff run? Well, he wasn't in Colorado this season. Still, he would have improved the Wild's depth on a decent enough free-agent contract.

    Without Nelson as an obvious target, the free agent depth gets thin fast. The three best remaining centers on the market are Sam Bennett (No. 2 on The Athletic's FA Big Board), John Tavares (No. 3), and Matt Duchene (No. 11) -- three players on contending teams, for which no one would be surprised to see them re-sign with their clubs. 

    From there, it gets thin fast. The next three centers The Athletic has listed are Ryan Donato (No. 13), Mikael Granlund (No. 14), and Pius Suter (No. 15). All have their strong spots, but none are the do-it-all, bona fide top-six center Minnesota wants to land. 

    Of course, there's more than one way to land a center. Let's look away from the rapidly thinning free agent field and look to the trade boards. The Athletic's Trade Board has a 23-year-old, 60-point center at No. 2 on their trade board... which would be good news for Minnesota, if it wasn't Marco Rossi. Daily Faceoff also has Rossi as their top center on their trade board, which puts the Wild much closer to losing a top-six center than gaining one. 

    The rest of the names on the trade block aren't inspiring -- at least, not down the middle. The Athletic only lists Jean-Gabriel Pageau (No. 12) as a center option, and Pageau has had fewer than 1.0 Standings Points Above Replacement in four of his last five seasons, per Evolving-Hockey. Daily Faceoff has Elias Pettersson at 20th of 20 on their list, but besides that, it's uninspiring names like Erik Haula, Pavel Zacha, and David Kampf.

    The State of Hockey's expectations for the summer are through the roof, and that's something the Wild have fueled from the top down. Minnesota owner Mr. Craig Leipold famously declared July 1 would feel like "Christmas Morning," and Guerin didn't do much to walk that back at his final presser, saying this summer was "without a doubt, the best position that this team has been in."

    But as we at Hockey Wilderness wrote last month, July 2025 might just be the wrong time to strike. And that was back when the Wild had a shot at Nelson. 

    The Wild's front office can't make a free agent like Jamie Benn 27 years old again. They also can't slip Gary Bettman a hundred-dollar bill to get him to void Nelson's contract with Colorado, or force an also-ran team like the Buffalo Sabres to give up Tage Thompson.

    So what can they do?

    Increasingly, it looks like Minnesota simply has to bide its time. This isn't the right time to make a drastic move, and they have most of their team -- a squad that made the playoffs despite missing stars like Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek for about half a season each -- under contract for next year. They have star prospects like Danila Yurov, Liam Öhgren, Zeev Buium, David Jiricek, and Jesper Wallstedt looking to make the team next season. See what happens, see what shakes loose later, and go from there.

    Part of that will likely mean finding a way to make nice with Rossi, though. The two sides are at an impasse in contract talks. Finding a way to keep Rossi in the fold would, at minimum, establish a floor for center play next season. Even if Guerin still looks to trade Rossi next season or beyond, having him under contract and productive would give Minnesota much more leverage than in their current situation

    However this offseason goes, it'll be fascinating to see what the Wild do now that their obvious Plan A at center is off the board. Can they pull a rabbit out of their hat? Can they pull a Rossi off the trade boards? Or will they find a way to tread water and fight another day?

    With the NHL Draft and July 1 around the corner, we won't have to wait long to find out. 

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    Unless something crazy happens like Marner or Tavares decide to play here of all places, keeping Rossi is the best option.

    15th in next year's draft could be anything, I could even be a boat!

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    Guerin has shown since the day he arrived that he's gonna make lots of conservative moves to get additional kicks at the can. He's never given away the farm, or blown a trade tremendously. He's made a ton of sideways moves that get nit-picked but its allowed the Wild to look at lots of guys and have some hit big. Gus, and even Fred for a year. Lots of Glachenyuk or Jost deals have fizzled. Waivers acquisitions, fighters, and prospects have had their opportunity but the Knudis, Beckmans, Pitlicks, Deweys, Greenway, etc. all didn't clinch a big role.

    That's where Guerin is at now with some guys. Don't ask me why he liked Laine or extends Nojo but he has shown this is kinda how he goes about it. Will Guerin keep doing the same things, yeah probably. Can he do something significant enough this off-season to improve the Wild enough? He should and has the ability to do it finally, but which guys and you have to relegate Fred. 

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    21 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Rossi is the best option.

    I know it’s a small sample size but MR scored both of his playoff goals sitting right out in front of the net. If he gets traded it better be for a BIG difference maker. Marco has a ton of upside. 

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    They have star prospects like Danila Yurov, Liam Öhgren, Zeev Buium, David Jiricek, and Jesper Wallstedt looking to make the team next season.....how about just "prospects"? not stars yet

    it'll be fascinating to see what the Wild do now that their obvious Plan A at center is off the board. i hope Bill's Plan A wasn't linked to Brock Nelson (that would be pathetic). I hope it wasn't getting Benn or anyone else that Stars toss away. 

    i do believe (hope) Billy didn't pin all his hopes on Nelly and is still looking for a big deal. He has to. His plan needs to be a bit more enticing than Nelson for Kap to stay. He knows Kap wants to win. Kap has a voice. Billy listens.

    Rossi's future is sealed = he is gone. Billy is more likely to sign Kovy, then extend Rossi at the price that Rossi wants (he ain't getting 7MM). If Rossi wants to play here - 5MM per year is what he is getting. Getting out from Rossi 7MM and Nelly 7.5MM and maybe even Spurge 7.5MM would mean over 20MM in money. that is something that a smart GM can play with and do damage. Time will tell who Bill is. If he signs Kap and unloads Rossi and Spurge and brings in a star - he is a genius. We shall see soon.

     

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    11 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    brings in a star

    ODC are you forecasting a Jason R acquisition? He’s got one more RFA year and he’s not locked up longterm. I’m with you on keeping our options open and trying to land a high end difference maker. I’m not sure who could be Kap’s complementary piece and also an on ice leader. Bennet could be an option as a Barkov light, unfortunately he’s  going to command around $9.5M AAV. 

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    18 hours ago, Patrick said:

    Fire Hynes and hire him immediately!

    I disagree with firing Heinzy immediately, but DeBoer would be an upgrade. I would kick Heinzy upstairs and replace him with DeBoer instead since Shooter could use some help.

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    6 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

    ODC are you forecasting a Jason R acquisition? He’s got one more RFA year and he’s not locked up longterm. I’m with you on keeping our options open and trying to land a high end difference maker. I’m not sure who could be Kap’s complementary piece and also an on ice leader. Bennet could be an option as a Barkov light, unfortunately he’s  going to command around $9.5M AAV. 

    doubt that. but i do think bennett is on our radar and i think we need what he brings to balance against other big central teams. his age aligns well with Kap too. i wouldn't mind grabbing Bennett (would he be ok with 8MM?) and then making noise via trade route. 

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    34 minutes ago, Burnt Toast said:

    I’ve got him at $9.5. I think it only goes up from there. 

    maybe if EDM knocks off FL that'll bring his price down? but yeah 8 is too low. 

    on your last post - if Dallas or Colorado (add them here too) wants to deal either Robertson or Necas - i think we need to get in and see if we can become trade partners. it sounds like Dallas wants in on Marner and may move JR to free up $.....

    i'm also hearing barbashev is on the trade block (vegas would be foolish to move dorofeev) but barbashev is 29 - had a not-so-great playoffs.....i wonder if Barbashev for Rossi is something that Bill would do? I like his game. 

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    3 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    doubt that. but i do think bennett is on our radar and i think we need what he brings to balance against other big central teams. his age aligns well with Kap too. i wouldn't mind grabbing Bennett (would he be ok with 8MM?) and then making noise via trade route. 

    I like Bennett but can't see Florida parting with him. They don't really need anything but may have to move players due to cap. I'd think a smart GM would find a way to keep him. He's been great in the playoffs. But dang, he'd be a needle mover on our team for sure.

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    12 hours ago, Enforceror said:

    I like Bennett but can't see Florida parting with him. They don't really need anything but may have to move players due to cap. I'd think a smart GM would find a way to keep him. He's been great in the playoffs. But dang, he'd be a needle mover on our team for sure.

    This, Ekblad has been hurt in the past and Florida gets by okay. They just traded for Jones recently. Mikkola has been good and Forsling make up the D-Core there. Schmidt and Kulikov are very good veterans, but could be replaced like Guerin did with Bogo, Chisholm, or Kulikov previously. All those guys are plus players through the playoffs. As is Lundell, plus-15 in the playoffs. What a fricking, joke we love Rossi so much. 60 regular season points, just like Fiala, MN loved him so much, never does shit in the playoffs while Bennett leads the whole thing in goals. 

    Florida would be much wiser to keep Barkov, and Bennett together than to worry about losing Ekblad to free agency. Especially, if they win the Cup again. That's the obvious justification. Bennett scored 13+ playoff goals, Ekblad has two Cups in FL, but is the more replaceable guy. Let him go, sign Bennett. 

    When I look around, Guerin doesn't have many great options. There is no reason MN would get Bennett opposed to other heavy hitters around the NHL. Every team is gonna want the guy. Historically, that's how terrible contracts were handed out. Should the Wild overpay for Bennett, by how much to get him???

    I'm just not seeing the obvious thing. Nelson down, Bennett highly unlikely, so what's Guerin gonna do? Some kind of trade for Eichel, Monahan, Larkin, or a legitimate top six center is pretty much impossible. The Wild wouldn't trade Ek, so how's Bill gonna get a GM to trade one to Minnesota? So stupid they didn't take Lundell. He was the Koivu replacement on a silver platter. Now four years later, he leads his team in the playoffs for plus minus and does everything MN wants with 14pts driving a line. We're supposed to be happy Rossi can score on two wide-open grade A chances when Vegas had defensive breakdowns.

     

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    The Wild didn't lose to Vegas because Rossi was 4th line.  They lost because Gaudreau, Johansson, Nyquist, Merrill, etc all have spots on the team that should be filled by 50-60 point players that could get that extra scoring when it counts.

    The Wild had no choice but to scrape by on substandard offensive talent.  Forcefully building a team to win that way when you don't need to (i.e. next season and beyond) would be absolutely insane.

    A team can have intangibles up the ass, but relying solely on "defensive structure" won't get this team anywhere.

     At some point, the team needs offensive minded personnel that aren't named Kap and Boldy.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    16 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    doubt that. but i do think bennett is on our radar and i think we need what he brings to balance against other big central teams. his age aligns well with Kap too. i wouldn't mind grabbing Bennett (would he be ok with 8MM?) and then making noise via trade route. 

    Honestly, I don't see Bennett making it to July 1. I think he resigns a team friendly deal with a clause. Many hockey players have loyalty to their clubs, more so than the other sports. FL grabbed Bennett off the scrap heap and I think he likes it there and likes their team. Who wouldn't like playing with Tkachuk? 

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    15 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    They lost because Gaudreau, Johansson, Nyquist, Merrill, etc all have spots on the team that should be filled by 50-60 point players that could get that extra scoring when it counts.

    This should be where the '20-22 core comes in. We should be getting decent secondary scoring from them, not have to go out and buy it.

    I'm still in the Lundell over Rossi camp. I wasn't disappointed with Rossi between Breezers and Trenin. I was disappointed with his TOI and thought that line should have been deployed more. Rossi benefited from 2 guys heavy down low. He needs more talent on his wings + size. 

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    1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

    The Wild didn't lose to Vegas because Rossi was 4th line.  They lost because Gaudreau, Johansson, Nyquist, Merrill, etc all have spots on the team that should be filled by 50-60 point players that could get that extra scoring when it counts.

    The Wild had no choice but to scrape by on substandard offensive talent.  Forcefully building a team to win that way when you don't need to (i.e. next season and beyond) would be absolutely insane.

    A team can have intangibles up the ass, but relying solely on "defensive structure" won't get this team anywhere.

     At some point, the team needs offensive minded personnel that aren't named Kap and Boldy.

    one could say - they lost because Vegas had their youth continue to punch us in the mouth (dorofeev) while our youth was a mosquito bite at best (rossi) 

    but i do agree nyquist and freddy and merrill just do not belong out there. but that was half the problem and the other half is rossi's play.

    yes i know he scored an easy pair of goals after Trenin did all the heavy work - but other than that he was invisible, unlike Dorofeev - who pushed and pushed. don't bother bringing in stats - this you have to see with your eyes. he was a force every time and deserved his top line usage. 

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    2 hours ago, NoJoSux said:

    When I look around, Guerin doesn't have many great options.

    That’s what it looks like to me also. I know this might not be a popular take,  but I see this upcoming year as more of a transition year more than anything else. If they can create opportunities for the younger players, get them to buy in and win a playoff round I’d be happy. In order to do that we’ll need to add one top six player via trade or FA. By the Trade Deadline we should have a better idea of where this team is really at. 

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    1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Honestly, I don't see Bennett making it to July 1. I think he resigns a team friendly deal with a clause. Many hockey players have loyalty to their clubs, more so than the other sports. FL grabbed Bennett off the scrap heap and I think he likes it there and likes their team. Who wouldn't like playing with Tkachuk? 

    what if marner decided he likes to play with tkachuk? then bennett is out of luck and has to look for other opportunities. wild gives him a chance to become one of the leaders and not just a "one of group". but yes i agree - team (FL)/him may want continuity, but doesn't hurt keeping an eye on that.

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    2 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    what if marner decided he likes to play with tkachuk? then bennett is out of luck and has to look for other opportunities. wild gives him a chance to become one of the leaders and not just a "one of group".

    How about this, Bennett re-signs with FL for $7.5m, then Marner expresses his interest in joining Florida. Zito does his 4 Nations GM a solid by trading Lundell for Heidt and Haight to alleviate the cap crunch. Billy says thank you and will remember this for the next deal in a handshake move.

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    3 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

    That’s what it looks like to me also. I know this might not be a popular take,  but I see this upcoming year as more of a transition year more than anything else. If they can create opportunities for the younger players, get them to buy in and win a playoff round I’d be happy. In order to do that we’ll need to add one top six player via trade or FA. By the Trade Deadline we should have a better idea of where this team is really at. 

    I think I like this plan. If you can't get what is needed in the offseason, give the kids the spotlight, bank the money and start trying to fill in the holes around January. I wouldn't even wait until the TDL, deals can be made at any time. At some point we have to play the kids. Why not make room for The Wall, OgZ, Yurov, Buium, Jiricek and think about bringing up Spacek and Lambos as your 1st defensive callups? I wouldn't even mind a spot on the 4th line to groom Bankier, Milne, Haight, Heidt and reward them for playing well in the A. There's nothing like a nice NHL check or 2 to show appreciation and gauge where they're at....even if it's just to see them in practice!

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    If the Wild trade Rossi, they had better get something good in return. I have repeatedly suggested trading for Brady Tkachuk, but other people seem to think Ottawa would say no. A combo of Kaprizov and Tkachuk would be great.

    Leopold wants Christmas in July, so Guerin is likely going to make a deal, it just might not be a good deal.

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