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  • Bill Guerin Has Lost His New GM Smell


    Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA Today Sports
    Tony Abbott

    The New Car Smell is a real phenomenon. Everything's clean, everything smells like it's right out of the package. You try to keep it going as long as you can. Maybe you try to throw on a New Car Smell air freshener, but it offers diminishing returns. You might not dream of throwing that fast-food wrapper on the ground when the New Car Smell lingers. But once it fades? Anything goes. It's just another car now.

    Bill Guerin his New Car Smell for a while. We can track the potency of the smell in The Athletic's Front Office Confidence Rankings from year to year. In 2021 and 2022, the first two years of the rankings, we can see that while the NHL world wasn't sold on the Minnesota Wild's vision, the local fanbase was thoroughly Bill-pilled.

    But suddenly...

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    The New GM Smell can no longer be detected in Minnesota. The Wild fell 15 places in 2024's confidence rankings by the local fanbase. The Buffalo Sabres (from 12th to 27th), Seattle Kraken (from 13th to 28th), and Los Angeles Kings (16th to 32nd) are the only other franchises that saw this steep drop with their local fans. 

    The bottom fell out of the confidence level of the local fanbase. Even with the locals ranking 11th last season, 40% of the fan base were more confident in the direction of the franchise than they were the previous year. That's opposed to 7% of fans seeing a drop in their faith in the organization. This year, it's flipped entirely and then some. Only 6% of the fan base increased their confidence in Guerin, while 65% said confidence waned.

    That's a minus-59 differential, which is a really big, really fast turnaround for Wild fans. While there might still be some diehards left on Billy Island, to most Wild fans, he's just another GM now.

    What happened?

    To answer that, we've got to take a look at the years past. What did Guerin excel at, and what did fans buy into the most? We can find out by stacking up the local fanbase ranking in each category, year by year:

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    It's curious how little of the day-to-day transactions factored into Minnesota fans' confidence in Guerin's front office. They never regarded Guerin as a top-notch trader, a free agent savant, or a crafty salary cap manager. The big things that hit home with the home crowd were the actual rosters, the work of Judd Brackett's scouting department, and the overall vision. We can see that bear out in the comments Wild fans submitted along with their votes.

    From 2021: "The jury is out on how all of Guerin's moves will work out, but he does not seem shy about making tough decisions and sticking to his guns."

    From 2022: "The future looks bright... once we get out cap hell." and "It's a completely different franchise [since Guerin took over]."

    From 2023: "Love to see a front office with a focus on the future.... Excited to see this management start building toward a Cup window in a few years."

    It was easy to see the bright future last summer when the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts reduced significantly, and Minnesota finally seemed to have free reign in their cap space. However, Guerin's moves in the last 12 months have hampered that future of wide-open possibilities.

    Long, expensive extensions to Ryan Hartman, Marcus Foligno, and Jake Middleton tie up $4 million-plus in each player for at least the next three seasons. Yakov Trenin signed a four-year pact with Minnesota, adding another $3.5 million to the Wild's salary cap commitments.

    Suddenly, the Wild are poised only to have $15.05 million in cap space (more if the salary cap rises from $88 million) in 2025-26. That's not terrible, but it does leave less than $2 million each for the eight roster spots they'll need to fill. And their pending mega-contract for Kirill Kaprizov, which would kick in to start the 2026-27 season, will also eat into their future cap room.

    That foreclosing of the future is reflected in the biggest drop for any aspect of the Wild's front office: Their Vision. Minnesota's fans were among the 10, and sometimes five, in the NHL in terms of buying into their team's future. Now, they're flirting with the bottom five. 

    Forget the future, too. The Wild's extensions have made them too strapped to even buy low on goal-scorer Patrik Laine, even if the Columbus Blue Jackets eat half of his cap hit. Of course, some of this has to do with the last year of cap hell. Still, spending $4 million on Mats Zuccarello, Hartman, Foligno, $3.5 million on Trenin, and another $2.5 million on a nearly 40-year-old Marc-Andre Fleury feels like an unforced error that will cost them Laine.

    What's the plan? For a long time, Wild fans thought they knew it: Ride out the storm of cap hell and use their young talent and cap flexibility to be aggressive heading into next summer. That young talent is still there. However, with so little room to add to this core going forward, the team is relying almost entirely on Brackett's prospect pool to get them to a top-level team. It can work, but the margin for error is slim.

    Once a GM loses the fan base, the clock officially starts ticking. Guerin's grace period lasted a while; fans gave him about five years of rope. Now, we're going to have to see results on the ice before the fans have their confidence restored in the team's front office.

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    Good article.  Guerin has done nothing this summer to build confidence back in the fan base or team or for that matter make the team better.  It’s going to be a long season and his seat will start to get really hot for his bad choices over the past year.  No creativity and keeps chasing the wrong players.  This is become a fast scoring league and he is chasing 3rd and 4th line grinders.  While they are important you need guys that can put the puck in the net and a dman core that’s not small and getting older like ours is.  

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    8 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

    No creativity and keeps chasing the wrong players.  This is become a fast scoring league and he is chasing 3rd and 4th line grinders.

    On the other hand, the Wild might have 2nd line forwards, like Yurov, ready to jump in next season, so leaving those positions open while bolstering the supporting lines might be what Guerin is thinkingt, right or wrong.

    If the team has better health, I imagine they are knocking on the door of the playoffs this season, and in far better position the following season when they finally can deliver the team that Guerin has been building towards since he initiated the buyouts and set his course for the future.

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    Can't wait until the "Laine to Minnesota" rumors die.

    I talked to a Jets fan at one of my jobs today, and his reaction was, "Don't fucking dare."

    So, uh, yeah.  Let's not.

     

     

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    Very fair article, I guess the facts speak for themselves. The alarm I set on Wild Management goes off in 2026. Until then I’m taking a wait and see approach. I won’t need to express my opinion at that time because whatever cake they’re baking will be on display for everyone to see. 

    Edited by Burnt Toast
    Misspelling
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    I loved Billy as a player . I loved how Billy came in talking tough. It was refreshing to have  a guy with some balls to make decisions  that are for betterment of team over the feelings of players . I bought into he s going to what’s best for this team over selling jerseys. He had me until the ink dried on Freddy g ‘s absolute give away contract. Then all the crap Billy talked about culture change  turned out to be b.s..His culture change was a bunch of over paid babies getting there pay day and then taking a year off.  He can’t manage a front office due to his good ole boy tendencies. He can’t get guys to sign team fair deals.  Not team discounts but fair contracts for what you are as a player.  There’s only 2-6 guys on this team that even deserve ntc clauses. Not the whole team . He and his draft buddy , draft the exact same guy every draft. Undersized weak wingers that’ll never have the strength to compete in the playoffs.  What he’s done in his time compared to good GMs is ridiculous. He’s doubled down on what everyone who has been a wild fan knows. This build on the fly with middle of the road talent doesn’t work.  He’s can’t manage money so he can’t go get high end talent. So its this perpetual mediocrity. I’m sorry but there is no way Judds draft picks with Billy’s misfits are ever going to do shit in the playoffs.  He will alway be a few pieces short with no roster space , cap space or the hockey mind to go get what we need.  It’s time to get rid of Billy and get a good gm  to fix his mess so maybe these kids could be of help . 
        He reminds me of Stan bowman. Yet Stan had to pay for his bad deeds. Good ole boy Billy just gets more and more opportunities to not be accountable.. turning the other cheek to sexual misconduct isnt  leadership or character. Yelling guys out of town isn’t either. Bully obviously is challenged when it comes to making good decisions!

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    All of the off-season talk every off-season is generally negative. 

    The Wild are always going nowhere, even before they set franchise records for wins or points. 

    I like the theme and analogy but there's a good chance the Wild will surprise us. 

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    I think we should give Columbus an IOU for Laine since we are burdened with the buyouts. He seems to have lots of talent. Maybe that along with Freddy got Fingered…

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    We need to track down the highlight reel of this past Worlds tourney that showcased the "talents" of our guy NoJo and have it blasted on all the social media channels and tagging all the other NHL teams to aid Billy in off-loading him (with a bag of pucks).

    Where's the chatter over that stellar performance he displayed, albeit not in league play?

    Edited by PiranhasOnIce
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    3 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Can't wait until the "Laine to Minnesota" rumors die.

    I talked to a Jets fan at one of my jobs today, and his reaction was, "Don't fucking dare."

    So, uh, yeah.  Let's not.

    This is exactly where I think Waddell is on the player. I just don't believe he's a cancer, and I really think Mikko can fix him. He may be the only one at this point who has a chance to fix him. Waddell is going to have to sell low, though, he's got a lot of used car salesman in him!

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    2 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

    Very fair article, I guess the facts speak for themselves. The alarm I set on Wild Management goes off in 2026. Until then I’m taking a wait and see approach. I won’t need to express my opinion at that time because whatever cake they’re baking will be on display for everyone to see. 

    From the draft and develop area, that would mean that The Wall, Lambos, Ohgren and Yurov should all be on the roster. Peart should be knocking on the door with Lorenz, and Haight also being almost ready (unless they are traded). Hopefully a guy on that list in the later rounds will be a surprise (looking at you Spacek). I'm believing Dino and Hunt have already made the roster and are making decent contributions.

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    I have been a Guerin supporter since he was hired. Support, not homer. I see a lot of logic in the moves he's made and some reasons why he has done what he's done. He banked on a lot from the $4m signings, and got little back at this time. At the time, I thought he really needed to choose 1 of those 3, and I thought Foligno was the choice since we had nobody else in the organization to replace him. Hartman and Zuccarello should have just been thanked for their time here and the effort. 

    I didn't like the Fleury resigning and I think Guerin can and should get more creative with his trading. Specifically, there are some young guys who he really should go after in other team's organizations. He's built a really good prospect pool, but these guys should be more trade chips to get what you really want/need.

    I also think that Brackett needs to make some adjustments to his strategy. Really, he's got a type of forward and a type of defender, and he keeps bringing those guys in. That's fine if your goal is to develop them for trading, and everyone looks for puck moving defenders. Yet, this is not what I'm seeing. 

    He's also got some holes that haven't been filled, from what I've read a lower attended front office, he's got some glaring holes on the assistant coaches staff, especially in Iowa, and a workout facility down there that needs upgrades. This is all budget stuff, but he needs to get them fixed.

    Overall, I've been pleased with the moves he's made and that he's kept his promise of a competitive team. I do believe contending is coming, but we just have to be patient until the pieces fully arrive. 

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    46 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Hartman and Zuccarello should have just been thanked for their time here and the effort. 

    Lol. Those are the two I would wanna keep. Here we go again.

    Those two are about the only two earning their contracts and in Hartman's case I'd say he's out earning it.

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    49 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I have been a Guerin supporter since he was hired. Support, not homer. I see a lot of logic in the moves he's made and some reasons why he has done what he's done. He banked on a lot from the $4m signings, and got little back at this time. At the time, I thought he really needed to choose 1 of those 3, and I thought Foligno was the choice since we had nobody else in the organization to replace him. Hartman and Zuccarello should have just been thanked for their time here and the effort. 

    I didn't like the Fleury resigning and I think Guerin can and should get more creative with his trading. Specifically, there are some young guys who he really should go after in other team's organizations. He's built a really good prospect pool, but these guys should be more trade chips to get what you really want/need.

    I also think that Brackett needs to make some adjustments to his strategy. Really, he's got a type of forward and a type of defender, and he keeps bringing those guys in. That's fine if your goal is to develop them for trading, and everyone looks for puck moving defenders. Yet, this is not what I'm seeing. 

    He's also got some holes that haven't been filled, from what I've read a lower attended front office, he's got some glaring holes on the assistant coaches staff, especially in Iowa, and a workout facility down there that needs upgrades. This is all budget stuff, but he needs to get them fixed.

    Overall, I've been pleased with the moves he's made and that he's kept his promise of a competitive team. I do believe contending is coming, but we just have to be patient until the pieces fully arrive. 

    Did they ever replace the finance guy? I heard the last one left in part because of the bad contracts he was handing out. Just a rumor but I can see it.

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    I’ve been over going there just couple years. Hoping in two more years he’ll finally be fired then I guess another 5 years of rebuilding?

     Should be good enough to draft in the 15-23 range though baby!!!

    Edited by TCMooch
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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I'm believing Dino and Hunt have already made the roster

    On the hw pod one of the Justin’s suggested that it’s not a guarantee that hooz nuts starts in IA, with leather head lauko beating him out.  Injuries will have hooz in St. Paul before Christmas, I’m not sure I disagree with this red hot take.  

    Edited by Pewterschmidt
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    So, relax.  We have a prospect pool that is largely due to Guerin.  Those prospects are not ready to play in the NHL.  You can complain about not having roster spots available.  But the organization has shown that they are not against sitting people in the press box to get better players on the ice.  If the prospects are able to play they will play.  

    Fluery being signed is a smart move.  We don't really know where Wallstedt is in his development.  The three games played last year bring up a lot of questions.  Is he the goalie in Dallas or is he the goalie that played excellent in the next two games.

    Hiedt, Haight, Yurov, Kumpulainen are all young and need to show that they can play at the AHL level or over seas.  

    So the contracts that everyone complains about with Hartman and Foglino.  The simple fact is we needed them on the roster.  Same thing with Freddie.

    When the dust settles we will have a young skilled team and everyone will say that Guerin built the team from the rubble of Parise and Sutter. 

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    Billy's desire for 'cost certainty' is sometimes good and many times really bad.  It was really bad in the case of Foligno's contract.  I wasn't overly opposed to the extensions of Hartman and Zuccy, especially considering Hartman's age.  But, the NMC/NTC's on all three were a real downer.  It just totally removes any leverage we could have to move them out if it's not working out.  Sometimes you need to take a chance you could get better terms later instead of cost certainty for an early signing, especially on older players.  

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    9 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    When the dust settles we will have a young skilled team and everyone will say that Guerin built the team from the rubble of Parise and Sutter. 

    Building through the draft is a slow but proven process.  Takes lots of patience.  I think BG has done a good job of providing talent to the prospect pool.  But the Wild organization as a whole has done a relatively poor job in developing players in IA.  Until I see some serious commitment to the players down there it is hard for me to imagine this process working the way we need it to work.  

    If building through the draft does work it appears it may be from players that bypass IA through the use of other leagues.

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    40 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    If building through the draft does work it appears it may be from players that bypass IA through the use of other leagues.

    I’d suggest it’s less about developing the players you’ve drafted and more about drafting the correct players in the first place.  This upcoming season we get to finally begin to see whether or not Marat can be our Stankovich and if Ogzy can be our (insert comparable Dallas star prospect here)

     the Guerin/brackett results are finally coming in. 

    Edited by Pewterschmidt
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    I think there are a lot of overreactions with Guerin’s plan (or lackthereof). 
     

    I think the window will be open starting next season. We will be into a season of the extensions for Hartman, Foligno and Zuccy. It allows for some seasoning for fringe prospects to refine skills and be ready to make an impact. By the end of the extensions, we should have a good wave of prospects ready to take on regular roles or we learn that they aren’t capable (at least with the Wild) and we can dangle as trade bait. 
     

    I think we are in an okay spot. I would have loved for Guerin not to jump and make those extensions so quickly, but what can you do. His cost certainty philosophy got in the way here. However, I don’t think we are in a bad spot. I think he should recognize that he will need to shed some not so great contracts and show that he made a mistake with the Freddy signing and get rid of him. No shame in fixing a mistake you make. 

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    12 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    Lol. Those are the two I would wanna keep. Here we go again.

    Those two are about the only two earning their contracts and in Hartman's case I'd say he's out earning it.

    Hartman greatly outearned his $1.7m contract. But, at $4m which may have included a hometown discount, I think he'll be a disappointment. As for Zuccarello, look what happened to him after Heinzy took him off Kaprizov's line. It wasn't pretty. 

    The reason Foligno was important was nobody else has his size with reasonable stick talent in the organization. Now, I'm not advocating for his $4m deal, I thought it should have been more in the $3m category and only 3 years, but that was the guy to resign and let the others walk, backfilling with youth.

    Why keep the band together? Because Guerin needs a competitive team and the kids need to be stronger and heavier, along with working out their youthful mistakes. I have no problem inserting youth into the lineup. I think their energy and excitement offset those other things and with a couple of them they can add life to the team. For instance, resigning Zuccarello essentially meant that Yurov would spend another year in Russia. I think it would have been more valuable to have him here starting this season. I would have banked the Hartman money and put in a youngster, maybe like Milne, and saved the money for the TDL. Grabbing a big name at that time if we were still in the hunt would have been good, especially with money left over from the heavy lifting of the cap penalties. 

    I like Hartman's game a lot, but I thought he priced himself out of our team. Now, I say all of that without knowing what promises Guerin may have made to he and Foligno prior to their contract resigning. It is highly probable that he said something like "this is what I can afford now, but I'll take care of you on the next one." That assumes 2 things, there will be a next one, and it will be here. And that, I could understand. I don't know if it was best for the team, but making good on handshake promises has benefits down the line. This may have to be done again with bridge deals.

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    12 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    Did they ever replace the finance guy? I heard the last one left in part because of the bad contracts he was handing out. Just a rumor but I can see it.

    Our former guy who was the acting capologist did something wrong. There were 2 internal investigations and whatever he did wrong turned into a mutual parting of ways according to the 2nd investigation, and it was a surprise to him. His job has been filled by an internal candidate. I have no idea how qualified he is as a capologist, perhaps he took accounting and magician classes over the summer? But, the position was filled.

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    11 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    On the hw pod one of the Justin’s suggested that it’s not a guarantee that hooz nuts starts in IA, with leather head lauko beating him out.  Injuries will have hooz in St. Paul before Christmas, I’m not sure I disagree with this red hot take.  

    Remember, Pewter, in that comment we are referring to '26-27.

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    11 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    Fluery being signed is a smart move.  We don't really know where Wallstedt is in his development.  The three games played last year bring up a lot of questions.  Is he the goalie in Dallas or is he the goalie that played excellent in the next two games.

    I liked the other part of the comment, preaching patience. I'm sure you will get virtual stones thrown your way for that one. However here's where I disagree. I think you can absolutely conclude that The Wall is better at stopping the lower level teams than Fleury at this point. I think Guerin made a mistake, but deferred to his friend for 1 more season. Fleury, at this point, I believe is goalie 3. If an injury happens to Goose, I believe The Wall will come up and take the majority of starts. The main selling point of Fleury is his experience, but as a goaltender, especially a small one, I can see his reflexes slowing, a killer for a small goaltender. Sure, he still appears to be flexible, but not on B2Bs. 

    Fleury still has a lot to offer mentally for Goose and The Wall, but I think it would have been better done as an assistant goalie coach. What I would have liked to have happened was for Fleury to keep himself flexible and ready, see what Goose and The Wall could have done as a tandem, and if The Wall wasn't ready, send him back to Iowa and resign Fleury for half a season. This would be, essentially, the Teemu Selanne plan. 

    I also think that Fleury wanting 1 more year should have been cheaper, more at about $1m. He's already made his money, and that is not the motivation to play 1 more year. Getting a $1m is underpayment, but allows him a little more in front of him, probably more important to him at this point of his career. 

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    2 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

    If building through the draft does work it appears it may be from players that bypass IA through the use of other leagues.

    This is a good take and needs to be fixed. Iowa should be the main feeder but it is obvious the other leagues are doing a better job of preparing our guys.

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