Article: The Brock Faber Extension Was A Smart Overpay

[Tony Abbott]

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[Pewterschmidt]

I think Guerin believes he's getting Brock Strap at a bargain price as the Cap increases over next years and Brocker Top continues to get better.  I have less issue with this contract than a contract extension with NMC for a 32 year old middling forward who's clearly on the back nine.

[Patrick]

Faber is only 21.  He could and likely will get significantly better.  In that scenario this contract is a steal.  If he gets overshadowed by Buium...well having two GREAT young defenseman sounds like a good problem to have.  To me this feels like Boldy 2.0 but it's up to Brock to prove it.

[Paul Bunyan is Real]

Meanwhile, per Dom L on the Athletic Faber's projected value is 10.2mil AAV over the life of the contract. Seems like a pretty good hometown discount to me. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Looks like it ties him with Sergachev, a bit lower than top 12 in salary for D.

Of course, a lot of lower contracts have not expired or been extended, so by the time he is playing under this contract, it could be closer to 25th in cap hit among NHL defensemen and there are certainly reasons to believe(like leading a team in TOI per game) he deserves to be paid as a top pairing defenseman.

[MrCheatachu]

2 hours ago, Paul Bunyan is Real said:

Meanwhile, per Dom L on the Athletic Faber's projected value is 10.2mil AAV over the life of the contract. Seems like a pretty good hometown discount to me. 

Dom's projections are always high...I think he projected Kaprizov to be like $16.5M.

That said, Hein projected Faber to be at 8x$8.25 in Feb. I'm not quite sure where this 'overpay' narrative is coming from.

With what we know today and what the market has done, this really feels pretty damn close to market rate for Faber.  Nobody's wondering what blackmail BillyG has, and nobody is accusing Brock of giving the team a hometown discount.

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It'd be shocking if Faber doesn’t make substantially more than Sanderson, but given the team’s leverage, it doesn't feel like this extension will go much higher than $9.5 million. Either way, Brock Faber is about to get paid. 

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[Burnt Toast]

2 hours ago, Paul Bunyan is Real said:

Faber's projected value is 10.2mil AAV over the life of the contract

Agree this is a reasonable estimate. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that AAV value could end up being MUCH higher. 

[UncleWalt]

Break the bank for someone like Faber instead.
Exactly. And I never bought the bloggers at The Athletic suggesting the AAV would start with a 9.

[mnfaninnc]

Tony's take is a real good one on this. I think this is definitely within the range that makes this a solid contract. This might be the most important thing that Tony said:

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With all due respect to David Spacek and Jack Peart, the best versions of themselves should complement Faber, not displace him. Another Spurgeon isn't walking through that door, at least not in the foreseeable future.

This is exactly where we stand within our system and just the way I was thinking it would be. However, I'm also thinking that Buium is going to play his off side since our best prospects all happen to be lefties. Buium plays either side, I think he'll prefer the off side in the N. 

It will be nice if a couple of defenders who we didn't count on making it, would. This would be a guy like Spacek, or a guy like Masters. Peart, Lambos are supposed to make it.

[1Brotherbill]

This contract is a steal.  If you think about it logically.  The Salary Cap is going up and probably will continue to go up throughout the term of the contract. 

The contract does not start until next season.  And even with this contract going into next offseason the Wild will have 21 million to play with.  So this contract isn't going to effect much in the lines of signing people going forward.

As he plays more and gets older he will be better.  By the end of this contract he will be valued vastly higher than 8.5 million per year and the contracts will all go up across the board do to the increased salary cap.  

Now this could all go south with an injury or his play regresses.  But what we see right now of his play and the projected future of the league this contract is going to be a steal. 

[Will D. Ness]

I see him getting better next year.  It's not like his game is refined.  He was almost pure guts out there last season.  

Heiskanen level?  Maybe not but certainly top end of that list Tony compiled.

 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Athletic notes on Wild getting significant cap relief from bad contracts for 25-26:

Much of this mirrors some information I posted yesterday based upon a spreadsheet I put together using Puckpedia data, so I don't feel too bad copying much of the article.

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Minnesota Wild

Inefficient contracts expiring: Marcus Johansson ($2 million)

Dead cap reduction: Zach Parise and Ryan Suter’s buyout cap hit shrinks from a combined $14.7 million to $1.66 million

Projected cap space (assuming a $92 million cap ceiling): $19 million (15 players signed)

2025 pending UFAs: Marc-Andre Fleury, Johansson, Declan Chisholm, Jon Merrill

2025 pending RFAs: Marco Rossi, Marat Khusnutdinov, Jesper Wallstedt, Jakub Lauko

Finally. After years of navigating a punitive cap penalty from the 2021 buyouts of Parise and Suter, the Wild will enter the 2025 offseason with some cap flexibility to wield. Most, if not all of the freed-up Parise/Suter buyout money will be devoted to raises for Brock Faber (his new $8.5 million AAV extension will kick in for 2025-26) and Marco Rossi, who’ll be an RFA next summer, but there will still be wiggle room left over for upgrades.

AFP Analytics projects that Rossi will sign for just shy of $3.7 million annually on a two-year bridge deal, or for a $5.6 million cap hit on a six-year extension that would closely match Anton Lundell’s recent deal. This would leave Minnesota with approximately $13-15 million in space with 16 players signed. After that, Jesper Wallstedt and Marat Khusnutdinov should be cheap to re-sign as RFAs and top prospect Danila Yurov will likely sign his entry-level contract and join the Wild’s roster, too.

From there, Minnesota will have plenty of money left over to land one or two impact players.

I guessed at Rossi signing around $5M, and suspect that Khusnutdinov and Wallstedt could take up a few million combined on shorter term deals. They don't mention Buium, but I assume he would also be added by 25-26.