Article: How Much Would Winning the Draft Lottery Change the Wild's Outlook?

[Tony Abbott]

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[Need4speed99]

The nhl hates mn, no chance in hell do we get the 3rd overall. Not knocking the article at all but anyone who watches sports knows that politics in matters such as this are always for the "favored" teams. Big markets are always given an edge when it comes to drafts and refs. Sprinkle in a feel good story once every decade and realistically none of the leagues care about the best teams competing just the best markets.

[TCMooch]

I don't really see us winning the lottery. It just doesn't really happen like that for the Wild. Drafting 13 isn't bad and I hope we get somebody of value that can slot into the top 4 or middle 6.

[Citizen Strife]

I don't think the Wild should fret if they are at 13-15.  You can still get some good options at play, and some decently sized people (like Yakemchuk, Greentree, NB, Chernyshov, and Hage).  The list is proof 3 isn't a 1:1 home run.  Hell, Benoit Pouliot is proof enough...

Hell, Eiserman would be nice, if only to have someone who isn't allergic to shooting.

Edited May 7 by Citizen Strife

[Tony Abbott]

3 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

Hell, Eiserman would be nice, if only to have someone who isn't allergic to shooting.

Eiserman feels a bit like Kessel in that he got the hype early enough for everyone to nitpick his game. But his numbers? Those are real nice. 

[mnfaninnc]

I'm feeling good about the lottery. We're due. All those 2% never really come to us, but we're due for some love and the NHL owes us. 

If we do hop up to #3, I'm taking Cayden Lindstrom. 6'3-4" 216 already is an NHL made body. Skates well (checks off Brackett's box) has size (checks off Shooter's box) and he fills that center spot.

I also like the big 6'7" Russian defender. He's also mean. He needs a little bulking up as he's light at 215. But, already playing in the K? That's a bonus. 

If we stay at 13, I'm hoping for a large RHS bomb shooter such as Yakemchuk. I don't know much about Eiserman, but another LW is not what we need. If we go in that direction, we've got to trade some out. 

[Willy the poor boy]

I predict MN. will get the 4'th pick.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

26 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I also like the big 6'7" Russian defender. He's also mean. He needs a little bulking up as he's light at 215. But, already playing in the K? That's a bonus. 

If you think that's light, you definitely wouldn't like Trevor Connelly, mentioned above around pick #13-15(but could slide much further due to character flags).

Connelly is listed at 6'1 and 161 pounds.

[OldDutchChip]

Very excited for the draft, but for one reason only -

To see a trade! Wild trade!

We MUST be ready to deal and must come prepared and have all the scenarios/pitches/variables/reroutes accounted for.

Forget about the draftee, instead focus only on the pick. Leverage that, plus previous and future picks. Use assets that you have or assets that have not devalued (Rossi, Knut, etc).

Do not loose sight of the bigger goal - next year is your year to build Kap's team. It is a team that he should lead (he already leads it but give him a C so that he can be a leader thru and thru) and the team that is build to maximizez its results in this coming year (at least a playoff series win).

It's doable. If GM feels otherwise, get rid of him. It may require thinking ahead a few moves, so mapping out a path is crucial, especially with financial constraints, but it can be done. If GM does not have the capability to do that or people in place to do it for him, get rid of him. This is probably the biggest off season the Wild franchise ever had - do not ruin it. 

Last year of Cap penalties, let's not make it the last year of Kap ..... of next year will be his farewell year......  😜

 

[MrCheatachu]

Quote

2008: Zach Bogosian (No. 3), -1.2 WAR vs. Colten Teubert (No. 13), -0.5 WAR

 

• Two Where Everyone Loses (Bogosian, Gudbranson)

I'm sorry, I'll bite here.  Did Bogosian steal a parking spot from you or something?

• Colten Teubert's career stat line is 24 NHL Games, 0 G, 1A, 1 point
• Zach Bogosian's career stat line is 848 NHL Games, 60 G, 167A, 267 points

Suggesting that Teubert is a better player than Bogosian using WAR is absolutely asinine, and perversion of statistics to tell the story that you believe.  

Hell, reading all these Kings fans yelling to trade PLD for a bag of pucks or buy him out (first year in his contract) would suggest that his 11.1 WAR is misleading to the product on the ice.  If you want to believe Kings fans, a 1:1 Bogosian for PLD would be a robbery for the Kings.  But yeah, his 11.1 WAR puts him in the 'HUGE WIN' category...

 

 

[Tony Abbott]

27 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

I'm sorry, I'll bite here.  Did Bogosian steal a parking spot from you or something?

• Colten Teubert's career stat line is 24 NHL Games, 0 G, 1A, 1 point
• Zach Bogosian's career stat line is 848 NHL Games, 60 G, 167A, 267 points

I don't necessarily think Teubert is better or worse. It's kind of an interesting question -- does a player who's hurt his team everywhere he's gone (aside from last season) better or worse than someone who couldn't play those kinds of minutes? In effect, it's a similar result in that it doesn't really help the team. Atlanta missed big, especially since Alex Pietrangelo was on the board. I don't think anyone can deny that.

[PiranhasOnIce]

1 hour ago, Willy the poor boy said:

I predict MN. will get the 4'th pick.

I believe it's #3 if we have the luck of the lotto,  or #13. Thems the rules. Unless the Wild engage in a trade.

[Willy the poor boy]

3 minutes ago, PiranhasOnIce said:

I believe it's #3 if we have the luck of the lotto,  or #13. Thems the rules. Unless the Wild engage in a trade.

I'm probably wrong but I thought it was 3, 4 or 5 or 13, 14 or 15. were the possibilities for us.

[PiranhasOnIce]

5 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

I'm probably wrong but I thought it was 3, 4 or 5 or 13, 14 or 15. were the possibilities for us.

I stand corrected.

 

https://www.nhl.com/wild/news/minnesota-wild-nhl-draft-lottery-050724#:~:text=TONIGHT%3A The 2024 NHL Draft,the 2024 Upper Deck %23NHLDraft.&text=Minnesota currently owns the 13th,winning the 1st Lottery Draw.

Thanks for setting me straight.  Of course I'm convinced that we will now pick at #15...as the MN screw will be in effect. 

 

[Citizen Strife]

I looked at the thumbnail again, and I'm reminded a man's last name is Bonk.

[Citizen Strife]

The Wild stay at 13, as did everyone else.  Fair enough.

[Dean]

I’m with old Dutch. Billy needs to do some big game hunting at the draft.  Kappy has one foot out the door .  Just think about that . Your franchise player doesn’t believe in the team.  How does that translate into a good culture in the room. The guy everyone looks to , to do everything for them doesn’t believe in what he’s doing .  It’s going to permeate the season all year .  That’s not a healthy culture. 
     The wild are the exact opposite of the wolves. They have leadership that has got everyone from young an old to buy in . There best big d guy is out of game. They don’t feel sorry for themselves. They go and do something people say they haven’t seen in 30 years . They made the defending champs give up with 3 mins left in game . What ? A Minnesota team? Unreal . Glad I witnessed it. They play as a team in an unrelenting style. No one is bigger than the team. Just great stuff to see . Then you look at wild whose superstar isn’t bought in so why should anyone else. His teammates give up and feel sorry for themselves.  Just a sorry culture. 
    So I don’t see how this draft pick changes anything. Maybe for a kappy less team. The mentality of the team needs to change. How do you do that with your superstar being apprehensive? Go get a peer of his to help him lead . Somebody he respect s . I highly doubt he respects anyone besides ek and Faber on team.  Running back the same misfits is going to be a brutal mistake.  Good luck getting anyone who truly wants to win to come here after kappy goes.  I bet everyone in nba wants to be a wolve now.  Great gm, great coaching, great leadership, great buy  in and classy young men who exude character.  Then you have wild with a clueless gm who can’t figure out how to make the franchise player happy . Not with money or off ice stuff but with teammates who want to buy in and win. . Just total Opposite organizations. I can’t believe I’m saying that about the wolves but it’s true now . 

[B1GKappa97]

3 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

If you think that's light, you definitely wouldn't like Trevor Connelly, mentioned above around pick #13-15(but could slide much further due to character flags).

Connelly is listed at 6'1 and 161 pounds.

Yeah the flags are legit. No thanks.

[B1GKappa97]

19 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

The Wild stay at 13, as did everyone else.  Fair enough.

That means we probably get Helenius. 
Sounds like he could be an elite 3C, I think he’d pair nicely with Ohgren. 
 

He could play 2nd line too. Basically a more consistent Hartman. Or they could take a chance on a higher upside guy. 

Small chance it’s Yakemchuk, who sounds like a bigger Dumba. I don’t see why the Flyers wouldn’t take him tho. Gotta trade up if we want him.. 

Gus and #13 to the Kraken for #9? Could get Dickinson or possibly Silyayev (expected NHL debut ‘26-27)..

[Dean]

Nuggets remind me of the wild. It’s exactly how I’d expect the wild to act. Your best player isn’t scoring so everyone else melts down. Breaking there will turns them into little kids acting out. Sounds familiar. They have a Hartman throwing towels and heat pads on court. They have a Dean and moose yelling at the refs because they are getting out played.  Thankfully we didn’t see a spurg incident with a punch or ankle cross check . It was so impressive to expect the Minnesota team to act like that in first game due to bad calls but handled it with poise and determination. Then to just break the will of the defending champs in 2nd game and not get into there side show was icing on the cake.  That takes leadership, character and poise. How do you draft that? 

[MrCheatachu]

4 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

I don't necessarily think Teubert is better or worse. It's kind of an interesting question -- does a player who's hurt his team everywhere he's gone (aside from last season) better or worse than someone who couldn't play those kinds of minutes? In effect, it's a similar result in that it doesn't really help the team. Atlanta missed big, especially since Alex Pietrangelo was on the board. I don't think anyone can deny that.

Did he take a dump in your cereal?  Did he microwave leftover tuna in the breakroom?  How did Bogosian hurt you?

1. You don't think Teubert is better or worse? You cant figure out if a guy who's played 24 NHL games (also a defender with 12:39 atoi and a career -5 through 24 games) is a better or worse player than Bogo? 
2. In your 'dead cat bounce article' you posted the SPAR table through his career which clearly shows that while he hasnt been consistent, he hasn't hurt his team at every place he's gone.

 

By the way, that's through 16,821 minutes on ice.  There's absolutely no way you can compare that to Teubert's 306 minutes on ice.

So yes, you can state that Bogosian is a better player than Teubert, and if you try to hide behind WAR you're just demonstrating the perils of blindly depending on statistics without thinking about what you are doing.

 

[Citizen Strife]

Dean having a bit of a field day there.

We won't know what Kaprizov does until next year.  If he leaves, Faber becomes the guy the team builds around.  The only thing they can really do is wait. 

Trying to make some super trade for crazy pipedream is asking a hell of a lot.  The article pretty much confirmed even getting 3rd picks doesn't always amount to "Hey, he's the new top guy."  The Wild still have a shot at someone pretty dang good, or even a potential top line guy (the Caufields, Suzukis, and yes, the Boldys in these spots), so I think even Kaprizov knows the Wild are going to do what's best for him.  They don't really have a choice.

Besides, the Wild didn't give in all season, when a few people were ready and willing to waive white flags despite nearly everything pointing that direction.  Kaprizov doesn't let the team quit, Ek, Boldy, and Faber sure as hell won't either.  I'd rather play for a team like this, rather than lay down and die like the San Joses and Anaheims of the world.

[Citizen Strife]

Also, I'd like to state I think Ek and Boldy aren't chopped liver options as top line guys for Kaprizov either.  Ek may not have the flashy point totals, but his 30+ goals puts him over some guys like Hughes, and close to people like Hintz, Suzuki, Eichel, etc who almost never get that "They aren't 1C" labels.  We saw how well Matthews's 70 goals did Toronto against Boston...diddly squat.  One player can't simply win a series, and it sure seems like Toronto's pay four guys $50m whatevers didn't do anything either.  Boldy's right around the top 50 points in the league, in the ranges of Stutzle, Dobson, O'Reilly, Marchessault, Larkin, etc.

The main issue is the dropoff from Zuccarello (who starts slipping pace midway anyway).  2nd line guys in the 40s-50s, and the less said about lines 3-4 the better.  

I don't really want to hear any of the, "Kaprizov needs better linemates for him" BS, cause he has them.  What the Wild need are better players everywhere else.  Rossi and Faber improving would be nice, but Ohgren and Khusnutdinov outdoing what the Duhaimes, Folignos, Gaudreaus, Shaws, Letteris, etc. is where the offense should be.  That or stopping secondary scoring in general.  I don't think a #13 is going to net you some game changing, life altering Bedard or McDavid, but I'd bet you get the right guy, those 2nd-3rd lines don't look so shitty.

Edited May 8 by Citizen Strife

[OldDutchChip]

1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

Also, I'd like to state I think Ek and Boldy aren't chopped liver options as top line guys for Kaprizov either.  Ek may not have the flashy point totals, but his 30+ goals puts him over some guys like Hughes, and close to people like Hintz, Suzuki, Eichel, etc who almost never get that "They aren't 1C" labels.  We saw how well Matthews's 70 goals did Toronto against Boston...diddly squat.  One player can't simply win a series, and it sure seems like Toronto's pay four guys $50m whatevers didn't do anything either.  Boldy's right around the top 50 points in the league, in the ranges of Stutzle, Dobson, O'Reilly, Marchessault, Larkin, etc.

The main issue is the dropoff from Zuccarello (who starts slipping pace midway anyway).  2nd line guys in the 40s-50s, and the less said about lines 3-4 the better.  

I don't really want to hear any of the, "Kaprizov needs better linemates for him" BS, cause he has them.  What the Wild need are better players everywhere else.  Rossi and Faber improving would be nice, but Ohgren and Khusnutdinov outdoing what the Duhaimes, Folignos, Gaudreaus, Shaws, Letteris, etc. is where the offense should be.  That or stopping secondary scoring in general.  I don't think a #13 is going to net you some game changing, life altering Bedard or McDavid, but I'd bet you get the right guy, those 2nd-3rd lines don't look so shitty.

It is mind-boggling that people put Ek, Boldi, Rossi and Faber in the same class as Kaprizov. Insane! You are talking about likely the top russian player in the league (and yes i know Panarin and Kuch, but I am sorry - Rangers are loaded and Kuch plays with Point and Stamy and his game is a bit more Larionov + Fedorov vs Kap's mix of Ovi + Mogilniy + Bure). Kap is basically a top 5 player right now. And if the team fails to prioritize HIM and let's it just be .... forget Gaborik, he was NEVER a top 5 player - never a top 25 player! This will be enormously damaging to the entire team psyche and this RIGHT NOW is still controllable. You still have cards to play. You instruct leadership role on to him. You play for future, but HIS future. You draft/trade with mindset of maximing Kaprizov's talents. And only his. Not Ek's, Not Boldy's, Not Faber's nor Rossi's. You know F top 5 - i'll go and say he is the 3rd best player in the world RIGHT NOW after McDavid and MacKinnon. Go give him a C tomorrow, make May 8th the Kaprizov day and do whatever you can to keep him. He is the wild. And the only one that matters now and long term. 

Edited May 8 by OldDutchChip

[Will D. Ness]

4 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

Kap is basically a top 5 player right now.

Right?  I don't think this has been said enough around here.  

I also don't think he is going to want to leave when we make him the highest paid player in the league next year.