Article: The Wild's Retool Was Never What We Thought It Was

[Tony Abbott]

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[Velgey]

Are there any recent examples of a successful retool-on-the-fly? Guerin is charting new territory in terms of relative success (as measured by the standings) while reshaping a team. There isn't a good example or model to follow available, unlike many successful teams that have gone the "Top 3 picks in multiple consecutive drafts" route (although Edmonton, Toronto, Arizona, and Buffalo prove that is hardly foolproof). 

I still don't think the Foligno contract was right in terms of either money or term, but I'm not ready to burn Guerin in effigy just yet. It's a move that isn't destined to sink the Wild even if it does cause some pain. Almost every team has a couple bad contracts. Guerin may be able to move Foligno if and when that becomes necessary.

Still, this is the NHL. GMs are supposed to be excellent decision makers and negotiators... and the Foligno re-signing doesn't appear to match those requirements.

[mnfaninnc]

If resigning these guys was always Shooter's plan, maybe there are other pieces that he is willing to trade off when a prospect is ready? And, maybe we shouldn't be talking these 3, maybe it should be these 4 as we include Gaudreau too? 

Leadership comes in different packages. Is this the leadership Shooter wants on the ice? Perhaps so. And, maybe the right attitude for the kids wanting a roster spot is to tell them: "Fine, go take his spot!" 

But, my issue on this is that Deano protects the vets and never really gives the kids a fair chance to challenge for that spot. Maybe you've got to be like Boldy or Faber, where they get an opportunity and never let you take the lineup paper back out of his hand. 

Protec mentioned it earlier that when Dino and Yurov arrive, they should be like everyone else and head to Des Moines, spend a year there. I see the K more like the A where they are getting developed just as well to make the jump immediately. I think Ohgren's the one who may need the A, as the S is a little lower in my book. 

Will Dino and Yurov get a fair chance to unseat a vet? I certainly hope so!

This is next year, though. If the Wild fall flat again and don't make it through round 1, I've got to believe that Deano gets replaced. It would be interesting to know what sort of coaches out there Guerin likes.

[MNCountryLife]

I enjoy watching players develop as they enter the NHL ranks.  I was looking forward to watching a dozen Wild prospects enter the NHL in mass and see what they can produce.  It is "Hope" that those prospects develop into a powerhouse that keeps you watching.  

Reality.... You don't build a team on Hope.  

[Velgey]

43 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I see the K more like the A where they are getting developed just as well to make the jump immediately.

If they are given proper TOI. That often isn't the case. Yurov is averaging about 15 minutes a game this season, but last season was a little over eight. Khusnutdinov is getting only about 10 minutes this season, which is a significant drop from nearly 16 minutes he averaged last season. Hopefully they both play well enough to force their coaches' hands and get the TOI they need and deserve.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

I see the K more like the A where they are getting developed just as well to make the jump immediately.

If they were playing full minutes and among the top scorers, I would say they might step into the NHL like Kaprizov, but Kaprizov was ready for the NHL before he came over. Pretty sure he was leading his KHL team in points, and likely in forward minutes, which is a far cry from where Yurov is currently.

I would expect all of them to start in the AHL unless they are better than the NHL veterans when they arrive. Could take them a year before they get there.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Imyourhuckleberry

[Pewterschmidt]

40 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

If they were playing full minutes and among the top scorers, I would say they might step into the NHL like Kaprizov, but Kaprizov was ready for the NHL before he came over. Pretty sure he was leading his KHL team in points, and likely in forward minutes, which is a far cry from where Yurov is currently.

I would expect all of them to start in the AHL unless they are better than the NHL veterans when they arrive. Could take them a year before they get there.

Thank you for this cold hard reality.  The fact that Dino's TOI is down y/y leads me to believe his play doesn't justify the same level of TOI as last year.   This is a potential red flag for Wild fans. Maybe it's not a dark web conspiracy by the Russian deep state and it's really that the tiny Russian isn't ready for prime time yet. 

[vonlonster67]

33 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Thank you for this cold hard reality.  The fact that Dino's TOI is down y/y leads me to believe his play doesn't justify the same level of TOI as last year.   This is a potential red flag for Wild fans. Maybe it's not a dark web conspiracy by the Russian deep state and it's really that the tiny Russian isn't ready for prime time yet. 

Get serious! The only reason his playing time is down is they want to sign him to another contract as he just turned 21 in July and they want him to forgo another contracts cycle like KK.

[Tony Abbott]

2 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

I enjoy watching players develop as they enter the NHL ranks.  I was looking forward to watching a dozen Wild prospects enter the NHL in mass and see what they can produce.  It is "Hope" that those prospects develop into a powerhouse that keeps you watching.  

Reality.... You don't build a team on Hope.  

The idea that Zuccarello/Foligno/(and to a lesser extent)Hartman/Gaudreau will thrive into their mid-to-late 30s is just as much hope.

[vonlonster67]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

If they were playing full minutes and among the top scorers, I would say they might step into the NHL like Kaprizov, but Kaprizov was ready for the NHL before he came over. Pretty sure he was leading his KHL team in points, and likely in forward minutes, which is a far cry from where Yurov is currently.

I would expect all of them to start in the AHL unless they are better than the NHL veterans when they arrive. Could take them a year before they get there.

Yurov has an opportunity to be better than KK and should have been a top ten pick if not for the whole Russia dilemma. 

I expect his time in the AHL will be short and he will be with the Wild soon into next year similar to Boldy. The kids got talent. what he's shown with his limited time on ice should be a factor for consideration.

[Tony Abbott]

8 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

Yurov has an opportunity to be better than KK

[MNCountryLife]

11 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

The idea that Zuccarello/Foligno/(and to a lesser extent)Hartman/Gaudreau will thrive into their mid-to-late 30s is just as much hope.

Hmmm.. I suppose every decision as a GM could be dropped into a "hope" box in some form of another.  BG is hoping they can play at a certain level.  We were hoping that some prospects would be NHL ready.  If I were a GM I would strive to place the best 20 players on the ice every game....and the players that have repeatedly proven they can play at a higher level have a much better chance of continuing at that high level than the ones you hope will obtain that level.  Proven vs Hoping. 

So I respectfully disagree with you.  Zuc is playing 1st line.  It is unlikely that his play diminishes to 4th line level.  Hartman is only 29 and shouldn't see too much of a diminishing skill set.  Foligno is probably the riskiest as he was not first line material and a diminishing skill level could render him to the press box.  But is the risk of any of those 3 really higher than sticking an unproven player on the ice?  No. 

That being said, a roster needs a certain level of flexibility to allow for growth and contraction of skill levels.  BG seems to be creating a very rigid roster right now and that lack of flexibility may really hurt our ability to put the best players on the ice.  In that capacity I definitely have a concern.

[MNCountryLife]

57 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

Yurov has an opportunity to be better than KK

That is a pretty exciting comment. 

[raithis]

7 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

Yurov has an opportunity to be better than KK and should have been a top ten pick if not for the whole Russia dilemma. 

I expect his time in the AHL will be short and he will be with the Wild soon into next year similar to Boldy. The kids got talent. what he's shown with his limited time on ice should be a factor for consideration.

How sure are we that Yurov or Khusnutdinov even come over to North America next year?  Yeah their contracts are up, but talent or no, I don't see much chance of them cracking a Wild lineup that is crowded already unless someone goes down with an injury for a long time.  The leash for the vets has a lot more slack in it than the rookies have.

I'm not totally down on Guerin or Evason and believe that they probably know a lot better than I do about running a hockey team.  I also realize that development takes time and that nothing should be given, but there has to be a path forward or all the players who are knocking on the door are eventually going to realize that they don't have a way to get through it.  That isn't to say that all of them are even deserving of playing in the NHL, yet there still needs to be a way in should they have earned a spot.

I don't think that's the case.  And I think a lot of the players trying to earn that way in see that too.

We seem to prioritize grit and sandpaper over offensive talent to enough of a degree that our ability to score goals is mainly left to a few players on the team.  You can't field a team that doesn't have at least a small amount of balance in scoring and hope to make it very far unless your whole defense just shuts everyone down and the few goals you put in are enough to do the job.  You also can't have a team that just gets knocked around all the time either.  You need a mix of both.

So we are grit first and end up signing a few extra big bodies every year that don't have much scoring ability because our team also doesn't have enough grit with size.  That's a couple extra roster spots taken each year that shuts the door because we don't usually tend to draft those types of players.

All that said, why would Yurov and Khusnutdinov even come over?  Yes, Yurov has shown that he wants to, but why would either one come over when they will likely be stuck in the AHL and they could stay in the KHL for a lot more money.  I believe they currently make almost 3x what they would make in the AHL.  Unless they have great years in the KHL (something neither one appear to be having), their chances of making the NHL next year are slim, so they will both most likely end up extending their KHL contracts, especially if it gets them more game time this year.

They both might really want to come over, but I'd think it would be hard to turn down ice time and more money that they may just stay in the KHL for another year or two instead.

[raithis]

10 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

If resigning these guys was always Shooter's plan, maybe there are other pieces that he is willing to trade off when a prospect is ready? And, maybe we shouldn't be talking these 3, maybe it should be these 4 as we include Gaudreau too? 

Leadership comes in different packages. Is this the leadership Shooter wants on the ice? Perhaps so. And, maybe the right attitude for the kids wanting a roster spot is to tell them: "Fine, go take his spot!" 

But, my issue on this is that Deano protects the vets and never really gives the kids a fair chance to challenge for that spot. Maybe you've got to be like Boldy or Faber, where they get an opportunity and never let you take the lineup paper back out of his hand. 

Protec mentioned it earlier that when Dino and Yurov arrive, they should be like everyone else and head to Des Moines, spend a year there. I see the K more like the A where they are getting developed just as well to make the jump immediately. I think Ohgren's the one who may need the A, as the S is a little lower in my book. 

Will Dino and Yurov get a fair chance to unseat a vet? I certainly hope so!

This is next year, though. If the Wild fall flat again and don't make it through round 1, I've got to believe that Deano gets replaced. It would be interesting to know what sort of coaches out there Guerin likes.

Totally agree with almost all of this, but somehow I have my doubts that Evason is replaced.  In both Guerin and Evason's case, they seem to put a lot more faith into what's familiar than what other options are available.

That isn't to say that some of those decisions aren't good, but in a lot of ways, they seem inclined to stay the course and just hope the result is better.

Barring significant injuries or trades, I don't think either Yurov or Khusnutdinov have a chance to unseat a vet.  Assume Hartman re-signs and Rossi does well enough to at least hold on to his position, the only positions potentially up for grabs in 24-25 are maybe if we don't re-sign Duhaime, Dewar, Maroon, and/or Khaira.  I could see all of them gone, but I believe that would be a mistake at least in the case of Dewar.  I also don't see the Wild losing two larger bodies guys like Maroon and Khaira and not replacing both of them with other players of similar build.  Maybe Yurov challenges for Duhaime's spot on the roster, but I'd think Walker has foot in the door on that already and Yurov is back in the queue a bit.

Because of that lower ice time in the KHL and it making more sense from a monetary perspective to stay playing in Russia, I feel like he is going to extend at least another year with Magnitogorsk, maybe two.  If it's two maybe he makes the NHL in 26-27.  If it's one, he still probably goes to the AHL to start 25-26 unless he really breaks out.  I just don't see him deposing anyone in the next 2 years.

Khusnutdinov probably doesn't have a way forward unless Rossi doesn't find his game.

[Mateo3xm]

14 hours ago, Velgey said:

Yurov is averaging about 15 minutes a game this season, but last season was a little over eight.

I believe you but Russo said at the beginning of the KHL season that Yurov was getting similar amount of min as last year, maybe a slight bit more. (8-10 min)

He started off with 4pts in 4-5 games and hasn’t scored again last time I checked.

I figured the reason was they cut his min again.

Either way, I hate the way they are jerking him and the piss missile around.

I’m just wondering what happened with the burst of offense then the sudden drought.

 

 

[Mateo3xm]

13 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Thank you for this cold hard reality.  The fact that Dino's TOI is down y/y leads me to believe his play doesn't justify the same level of TOI as last year.   This is a potential red flag for Wild fans. Maybe it's not a dark web conspiracy by the Russian deep state and it's really that the tiny Russian isn't ready for prime time yet. 

Like Von said if they think you are leaving for the NHL they commonly cut min and treat players like crap unless they sign another contract in the KHL.

khuz put up a lot of points last year at his age in the KHL, I don’t think his toi has anything to do with performance.

This happens all the time over there.

[Outskated]

There is one and only one glaring reason why Guerin is doing the things he is doing.  It's because that's what his boss wants him to do.  Leipold is not interested in losing because it costs him money.  It costs money on gate revenue, concessions, jersey sales and corporate sponsorships.  So if he can have 100 point seasons with a full stadium and still have the promise of the future, then that is what he is going to do.  Playing youngsters sounds great in theory until you see what the Sabres arena looked like for the last 5-7 years before last year with 8-9k people in it every game.

[Velgey]

3 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

I believe you but Russo said at the beginning of the KHL season that Yurov was getting similar amount of min as last year, maybe a slight bit more. (8-10 min)

I based it off of the KHL website, which I would think would be accurate. It's early in the season so the average could be shifting a lot and maybe it was closer to 8-10 when Russo wrote the article.

[Pewterschmidt]

2 hours ago, Outskated said:

There is one and only one glaring reason why Guerin is doing the things he is doing.  It's because that's what his boss wants him to do.  Leipold is not interested in losing because it costs him money.  It costs money on gate revenue, concessions, jersey sales and corporate sponsorships.  So if he can have 100 point seasons with a full stadium and still have the promise of the future, then that is what he is going to do.  Playing youngsters sounds great in theory until you see what the Sabres arena looked like for the last 5-7 years before last year with 8-9k people in it every game.

I think you're onto something here.  BG will continue to get promotions and contract extensions as long as:

1) he's providing clear leadership for the org. (BG kills it in this dept)

2) provides the coach with a pool of players who can compete in regular season and win games (BG kills it in this dept)

3) This will keep the barn sold out thru regular season which provides Leipold an acceptable return on his investment

This is the short game and BG has succeeded so far

We're now entering the long game for BG's regime.  Long game requires:

1) Org. must draft well to keep a pipeline filled with prospective NHL'rs.  Rossi is this regimes first prospect that needs to come up to the big club and start contributing.  We're going to find out this season if BG's regime has succeeded with it's first pick.  The time for Rossi qualifiers has passed.  Rossi needs to put up or shut up

2) GM needs to be savvy and make net positive trades (Gus grade: A, Middleton A, Greenway TBD, Fiala Incomplete pending Yurov)

3) GM needs to be savvy and offer extensions to the right players (ie Hartman A+, Foligno D, Parise/Suter Pass (Leipold appears to be giving BG a long timeline 5 more years for the org to recover from this)

Edited October 5, 2023 by Pewterschmidt

[MNCountryLife]

2 hours ago, Outskated said:

There is one and only one glaring reason why Guerin is doing the things he is doing.

You may be right.  But there is another possibility.  BG could also look at the bottom of the roster and say he has openings next year. Duhaime, Dewar, Maroon, Khaira and as of now Hartman are not signed next year.  Assuming Hartman does get signed.  BG could consider the bottom 4 positions of his roster more replaceable than the top.  You don't get better by trading away your best players.  

[mnfaninnc]

5 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

He started off with 4pts in 4-5 games and hasn’t scored again last time I checked.

Just checked: Dino 0s, Yurov 3-3-6 in 13 games.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

Leipold needs to understand that as long as he demands that they get into playoffs we will continually be in the mushy middle. We are never going to elevate our postseason play with the same lineup. If he really wants to win like he constantly preaches, he needs to take a longer view than playing the same players with the same playbook year after year.

This core is not good enough to go far in playoffs. How many more years do we need to see the same failed experiment? There is so much talk about keeping Kap happy but do we think he won't be hungry for something more than a first round exit by the time his contract is up? Does BG and CL really think that Zucc being around will displace Kap's want to win? They keep talking about a window to win but are doing absolutely nothing to build to that window. It isn't going to magically happen because the cap hit comes off and with the way BG is giving away dollars, we may not have the room to bring in a big FA.

I don't think I'm alone in saying that it feels like after all this talk, they have forsaken the goal in prioritizing a win now mentality. I thought this was about "fucking winning". Not extending vets for term for their loyalty and locker room presence 

[IllicitFive]

23 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

If resigning these guys was always Shooter's plan, maybe there are other pieces that he is willing to trade off when a prospect is ready? And, maybe we shouldn't be talking these 3, maybe it should be these 4 as we include Gaudreau too? 

Leadership comes in different packages. Is this the leadership Shooter wants on the ice? Perhaps so. And, maybe the right attitude for the kids wanting a roster spot is to tell them: "Fine, go take his spot!" 

But, my issue on this is that Deano protects the vets and never really gives the kids a fair chance to challenge for that spot. Maybe you've got to be like Boldy or Faber, where they get an opportunity and never let you take the lineup paper back out of his hand. 

Protec mentioned it earlier that when Dino and Yurov arrive, they should be like everyone else and head to Des Moines, spend a year there. I see the K more like the A where they are getting developed just as well to make the jump immediately. I think Ohgren's the one who may need the A, as the S is a little lower in my book. 

Will Dino and Yurov get a fair chance to unseat a vet? I certainly hope so!

This is next year, though. If the Wild fall flat again and don't make it through round 1, I've got to believe that Deano gets replaced. It would be interesting to know what sort of coaches out there Guerin likes.

Devils advocate, could one make the argument they did exactly that, came in, stole a spot and didn't let go? Isn't that what we should want? The best players playing instead of just handing the keys over and hoping it works out?  I just assume I am not a GM for a reason but the tank idea drives me nuts, if it worked Arizona would be top dog by now. I am as frustrated as most are but I guess just have to sit back, watch hockey, and hope this year is our year. If a kid or 3 can show up and clearly take over for aging vets or others, and they still get 0 chance then I will also join in the call for turnover in coaches, maybe gm.

[Up North Guy]

23 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Protec mentioned it earlier that when Dino and Yurov arrive, they should be like everyone else and head to Des Moines, spend a year there. I see the K more like the A where they are getting developed just as well to make the jump immediately.

I agree that the K and A are similar. The problem is that Dino and Yurov are not getting the ice time they need. At least that was what I had read previously. BG may be taking that into mind as well along with the memory that KK97 was getting the same treatment and chose to resign one more time with Moscow. On top of that the political climate in Russia right now is extremely perilous for anyone wanting to leave,