Article: The Wild Should Keep Gustavsson For the Long Haul

[Tony Abbott]

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[Up North Guy]

I have to believe that the Wild see the next few years as a time for a shared net. Assuming both play reasonably well it would be a huge difference maker for the teams results to have two superior net minders. Eventually one will decline, out price himself, or become great trade fodder. But the years of the duo could be fabulous.

[Up North Guy]

Gus signs for three years at $3.75AAV. 3rd year has a partial NTC (NMC?). It is going to be very tight on the cap this year. I wonder if Addison gets traded and guys like Hunt are called up for game days and immediately sent back down. That don't have any LTIR candidates to play possum with. Perhaps they will trade another veteran for cap space and do the I-35 track meet all year. it is going to be interesting.

[mnfaninnc]

To answer the article title: YES!!!!

Goalies are weird. They can come out of nowhere to be good, and just as easily head south. Confidence is such a big part in his toolbox. 

With this tandem, we'd have 2 goalies who would play a similar style and both be reliable. While I like having a goalie who's a lefty in the tandem, and I like having 2 different types, I still think this one can work. Both were trained similarly and should be good in the room together. 

Injuries can always derail a good situation on paper. That's why we need a tandem, and since there is nobody else ready in the organization, that's why keeping Goose2 is a priority. 

As for arbitration, I think Shooter's case really stands on the lack of experience and his 2nd year up with the Senators. He let in a few softies for us too, but it's that experience and other years that really matter here. It will also be interesting to see where Guerin's number comes in. 

Samsonov is a decent blueprint on what is going to happen. Gustavsson has less experience. His underlying numbers are a little better, but we're talking about Toronto, clearly not a defensive juggernaut. I think if I'm Shooter, I'm gunning for 2 years. 

How does this help with the hard feelings? It won't affect Guerin too much. His argument is experience, if Goose2 puts up 2 more solid years, Guerin won't have any problem paying him. So, the hard feelings would really lie with Goose2. He was embraced and wanted here, essentially discarded by Ottawa who did not believe in him. He thought last season would be his last in North America and he'd be back in Sweden this coming year. His teammates love him, and he's been a good fit. He's worked hard on his deficiencies. And, he's not yet proven to be a 1A option. Can he take the pounding? Nobody knows. 

When Swayman's numbers come in, we'll have a really good look at his market value. I'm thinking he may sign as soon as he's in NA and Swayman's salary is in. Essentially, he left the negotiations up to his agent and took off to Europe for the summer. He's letting his agent handle it. I think some of these agents this summer need a reality check. All 3 of Samsonov, Swayman and likely Gustavsson are asking for way too much money for not a lot of track record. 

If anyone hears the numbers for team and player, could you please list them? 

[mnfaninnc]

6 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

Gus signs for three years at $3.75AAV. 3rd year has a partial NTC (NMC?). It is going to be very tight on the cap this year. I wonder if Addison gets traded and guys like Hunt are called up for game days and immediately sent back down. That don't have any LTIR candidates to play possum with. Perhaps they will trade another veteran for cap space and do the I-35 track meet all year. it is going to be interesting.

4 minutes after I posted. I think the $787k for Addison will be ok, and probably cheaper than using the i-35 expressway. I'm also thinking that we might see some Addison at wing as the 13th forward, at least to start the year if there is a need. That way we can build up some cap space. Essentially, what we'd have left is an ELC contract of space. 

I still maintain that if Addy doesn't come into camp significantly stronger, he's dealt, though. I could also see a situation where you play him a little at wing but really double shift Kaprizov on the 4th line for part of the game. 

[mnfaninnc]

I still think the deal is a little overpayment. I looked at capfriendly and found it is front loaded. I think that's a little strange. So, I guess Guerin is betting hard that last season was no fluke. If he wins that bet, we've got a nice squad in '25.

[MNCountryLife]

Wow.  Just signed Gustavsson for 3.75M AAV.  Only leaves us 1.6M remaining for cap space.  Talk about tight.  

[MNCountryLife]

12 Forwards, 6 Defensemen, 2 goalies.  Only Addison is left to sign which would give us 7 D.   Hopefully he signs at or under $1M AAV.  Will be a tricky year sending people back and forth to IA.

 

[M_Nels]

16 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I still think the deal is a little overpayment. I looked at capfriendly and found it is front loaded. I think that's a little strange. So, I guess Guerin is betting hard that last season was no fluke. If he wins that bet, we've got a nice squad in '25.

Would’ve liked to have seen it closer to $3m AAV but glad they were able to lock him up for term and avoid arbitration. Squeezing every bit out of the remaining cap.

Goalies are weird man. Can look like world beaters one season and then fall off: see Jack Campbell. Hopefully Gus took his conditioning more seriously this offseason and picks up right where he left off last year. Hoping this is a home run deal that puts us in a great spot when the buyouts come off the books.

 

 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

27 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I still think the deal is a little overpayment. I looked at capfriendly and found it is front loaded. I think that's a little strange. So, I guess Guerin is betting hard that last season was no fluke. If he wins that bet, we've got a nice squad in '25.

I was sure the agent would be shooting for at least $3.5M(due to Fleury's contract at that level as the backup). The Athletic had mentioned the $3.2-$3.5 million range a couple of times.

It may have been down there if the contract was for just 2 years, but getting that 3rd year provides Guerin a known contract that is below average starter money for when the cap opens up for the Wild. If Gus continues his strong play for the Wild, the team could be in a great spot for 2025.

I'm a little surprised they completed this before the other 2 arbitration cases came in, but this seems like a decent deal compared to the other non-arbitration situations that have been mentioned.

Next season, Zuccarello, Fleury, and Goligoski come off the cap, and it will be interesting to see what the Wild do with that $11.5M of cap space opening up. Foligno and Hartman are in the last year of their deals as well, but they make reasonable money. I'd expect at least one of them to return in 2024. Possible Zuccarello could return at a lower cap hit as well.

I could see rookie deal 1st round picks replacing Goligoski and Fleury in 2024, possibly the same for Zuccarello if the Wild have some prospects really show out this year.

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, M_Nels said:

Hopefully Gus took his conditioning more seriously this offseason and picks up right where he left off last year.

I just have to wonder if Gustavsson walked into the office with his agent, Guerin saw he was in much better shape and gave him a little bonus?

[vonlonster67]

I'll take $3.75/3yrs all day long. Its not $4 million and in the beginning I heard numbers of $3.3-3.8 million when everyone was clammering there's no way we pay him anymore than $3 million. If we weren't in such a dire financial straits with the cap no one would think twice of this deal. Remember we paid Greenway $3 million a year and got what?

The three year deal get us to the sweet spot in our cap years and it assures us a legitimate goalie who has a better chance of moving forward production wise than backwards. It's always a roll of the dice with goalies, but I look back at where we came (Dubnyk, Stalock, Kahkonen, Talbot, Fleury) from and it seems like we are on the right track.

I'm happy that his did not go to arbitration hearing as it sounds like those can be a bitter pill for the players to hear the negative aspects which could linger. I like too believe his culture of being from Sweden has some bearing on making the deal and maintaining the team first at this point.

His love of the the game, team, location, stability, a reliable "D" in front of him, a system that fits his style and a bright future of "D" prospects to go in front of him has to make this work for all. 

 

[FredJohnson]

Get on the Gus Bus!!!

[Protec]

5 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I just have to wonder if Gustavsson walked into the office with his agent, Guerin saw he was in much better shape and gave him a little bonus?

Sounds like Gus is in Sweden and was getting ready to go to the arbitration hearing in Toronto when his agent called him to say the deal was done.

Now Gus is getting on the ice and hopefully getting into shape for camp. He was joking about not getting any sleep. Maybe his wife can suck it up for a few months til the kids sleeps more normal so Gus can sleep at night and make good on the 11M. 

[TCMooch]

It’s a great problem to have but I don’t care how highly touted Wall is…until he gets NHL starts the team has no idea what he’ll be. 
 

[Protec]

Guerin doesn’t do lazy or emotional deals. He’s established a pecking order around salaries. The planning in the Guerin era is evident and compared to previous GMs, this time around they’re doing things right. They’re getting good young players under contract for fair cost. Not 40M between 4 guys.(TOR) The contracts under Guerin are all good in that they’re AAV is reasonable and the term isn’t too lengthy with older guys. One exception is Goligoski, but I predict he joins the Wild after he retires. Maybe not but it’s an example of Guerin’s emphasis on depth.(Vets/Prospects)

The consistency and stability is evidence that the plan we heard about after the settling in process and around the big buyouts is on track. Not that we didn’t believe it, but there appears to be solid adhesion and execution of the missions. “Trust the plan.” 

[Pewterschmidt]

14 hours ago, FredJohnson said:

Get on the Gus Bus!!!

Drop off the key Lee

[Pewterschmidt]

2 hours ago, TCMooch said:

It’s a great problem to have but I don’t care how highly touted Wall is…until he gets NHL starts the team has no idea what he’ll be. 
 

Love this clear eyed pragmatism.  With all the ‘can’t miss’ prospect busts we’ve seen over last 20 yrs you’d think there’d be fewer people saying “next year when Wallstead is the starter”….well hope springs eternal I guess

[FredJohnson]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Drop off the key Lee

😁 

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, Protec said:

Sounds like Gus is in Sweden and was getting ready to go to the arbitration hearing in Toronto when his agent called him to say the deal was done.

Now Gus is getting on the ice and hopefully getting into shape for camp. He was joking about not getting any sleep. Maybe his wife can suck it up for a few months til the kids sleeps more normal so Gus can sleep at night and make good on the 11M. 

Does anyone know if his family comes over with him during the season? I would assume they would, but that's not always the best assumption.

[mnfaninnc]

3 hours ago, TCMooch said:

It’s a great problem to have but I don’t care how highly touted Wall is…until he gets NHL starts the team has no idea what he’ll be. 

One thing we can probably bank on is that The Wall will have a learning curve of a couple of seasons when he's called up. Knowing that going in probably relieves some of our expectations a little.

[M_Nels]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

One thing we can probably bank on is that The Wall will have a learning curve of a couple of seasons when he's called up. Knowing that going in probably relieves some of our expectations a little.

People get a little excited and impatient when the phrase “#1 goalie prospect” gets tossed around, especially if Flower or the Bus have a rough game. 
 

For his 1st season in NA he had solid numbers on a mediocre Iowa team.
18-15-5 2.68GAA & .908sv%
 

There was an Athletic article from earlier this year that he commented on how different the NA game is, ice size, speed, angles etc. so I’m guessing he’ll be at minimum 1 more year in Iowa barring injuries. Flower is signed through the end of this season so there would be a spot to fill if he hangs up the pads. 

[UncleWalt]

https://theathletic.com/4736260/2023/08/01/maple-leafs-samsonov-murray-salary-cap/
 

Mirtle speculates Samsonov would have gotten &4.25/2 or $4.5/3 on a longer term deal. Yowza! That makes Gus’ deal look even better. 

Gus has one more year restricted than Samsonov but still…

[Protec]

6 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Love this clear eyed pragmatism.  With all the ‘can’t miss’ prospect busts we’ve seen over last 20 yrs you’d think there’d be fewer people saying “next year when Wallstead is the starter”….well hope springs eternal I guess

And how! Don't count chickens before they hatch, bird in hand over two in the bush, don't outgrow britches, that'll be the day, etc. There's plenty of wisdom on this apart from specific Wild failures. 

What makes these times look better overall is the number of guys in the system. We've had some composure with #97 and #14 needing some time to arrive so to speak so we can do it. But there's no sure thing except death and taxes I'm told.

[mnfaninnc]

3 hours ago, M_Nels said:

There was an Athletic article from earlier this year that he commented on how different the NA game is, ice size, speed, angles etc.

From the eye test, and granted it is just looking at highlights, but they were goals, The Wall had trouble adjusting early. I think the biggest issue was that Sweden values puck possession while in North America, we will take shots at any angle even if it means giving up possession. So, what I saw was a lot of bad angle shots go in from a goalie who was supposed to be very calm and read plays extremely well. 

Essentially, The Wall wasn't reading the NA game particularly well at the start. This got a lot better as the season went on. Now, to be fair, Gustavsson had that same issue early on with us this past season. Sometimes it seemed like he didn't know where the puck was and when it was shot he never picked it up until the twine poofed. 

What I'm willing to bet is that the NHL shooters can put a little extra on their shots and those sharp angled shots will come on you much quicker. As a goalie, you look like an idiot when these things go right through you and your not squared up and ready. I suspect if we get The Wall in St. Paul (that has a nice ring to it) for the '24 season, by '26 he should be ready to at least share the net 50/50. I'd love to have both Goose2 and The Wall as the tandem going forward. And, with the cap heavy lifting over, we can invest a little more in our goalies.