Article: What Do Other Goalie Arbitration Cases This Year Mean For Gustavsson and the Wild?

[Luke Sims]

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[mnfaninnc]

I believe the Samsonov contract will have a large impact on what happens with Gustavsson. Notice how the Wild haven't even done anything yet with Addison. Does that mean if Gustavsson goes higher, he won't be retained? At close to minimum, I don't think you can find anything cheaper than Addison's QO. 

Samsonov isn't going to get $4.9m, and that's a vast difference, about double what Toronto offered. Perhaps Goose2 waits on Swayman's deal which also, likely, waits on the Samsonov decision. 

I think it would be in the Wild's best interest to sign Goose2 for at least 2 seasons, instead of 1. Sorokin's deal is simple outside of reality. Maybe in a couple of seasons of similar performance could Goose2 get that, but certainly not in the next 2 seasons. 

Samsonov's hearing is going on right now as I type. We shall see what happens and who blinks first. 

[MNCountryLife]

This is a very tough negotiation for the Wild.  We have a goalie that played outstanding for most of the season.  He even started the playoffs extremely well but faded a tiny bit in the end.  His prior years experience are not as rosy and he is playing for a very goalie friendly team.  When you review the team  goalie friendly environment along with his history and limited number of games... IMO: his salary should not exceed $2M AAV.   Anything over and I would take a chance on a different goalie...Especially with our intention to hand the reigns over to the Wall in a year or 2.

[vonlonster67]

"IBGIT"- In Billy Guerin I Trust

No on every heard of Gus before this past year other than when his name was called during the draft. He was on the "Island of Misfit Toys" in Ottawa! He was known for losing it before the games, getting sick and getting the "shakes"

He did us right here when our "D" was lacking, but our "D" also did him right when they were on. Different story on the island where he had no "D". Please Gus remember where you came from?

We're not paying you $4 million. PROVE IT and you will be rewarded with loyalty. You can look at our roster and see our loyalty contracts with Goose and his last two contracts and the fact he's still here in our salary crunch. "The Wall" looks promising, but he could use some seasoning in the AHL and NHL, that's 4-5 years of 1A-1B, everyone is happy and you'll get your salary as he grows into a bigger payday. "The Wall" is no guarantee!

I trust BG and his staff. I know they have their sites set on another GUS we don't know about if this doesn't work out. So be careful what you ask for in arbitration and get. What you know here and your new love could be gone! Moving on.

I'm for everyone getting paid, but this has dragged on too long."

[bisopher]

I can see around $3MM for Gus, for either one or two years--although I think one year is more likely.  Next year, MAF retires and Gus2 takes over his $3.5MM, maybe plus a bit with an overall cap increase.  We then have Gus2 and the Wall in goal for <$5MM total, possibly for a number of years...

Similarly, I think BG is planning (hoping) that Duhaime develops to the point he can replace Foligno at a cost somewhere between their $1.1MM and $3.1MM salaries next year. 

[mnfaninnc]

The verdict is in for Samsonov, 1 yr. at $3.55m. According to my math, that sided a little bit towards the Maple Leaf's numbers. Samsonov had an extra year of starting experience ahead of Goose2, and it looks like he's 1+ years older than our goalie. 

I would have to say that it's a pretty fair comparable, and I'd expect Goose2 to slot in somewhere around 2 X $3.2m if that's the comparable. I'd be looking at '23=$3m, '24=$3.4m. It's a bit on the higher side for me, as I believe he should be slotted somewhere <$2m this coming year on a 1-way deal. That's usually the progression since he really was a rookie last season. 

Does Shooter ink him this week, or wait on Swayman? Does Goose2 have to swallow some pride? I think the ball may be in Gustavsson's agent's court right now.

[Dango]

What do we do if we cant sign both RFAs  , I know the Wild like to keep 1-1.5 in available cap space as well ,  

[mnfaninnc]

15 hours ago, Dango said:

What do we do if we cant sign both RFAs  , I know the Wild like to keep 1-1.5 in available cap space as well ,  

I don't think we're in any danger of that happening. A quick look at capfriendly shows us with 19/23 spots filled, and just under $5.4m left. If Goose2 comes in at $3.2m aav, that leaves just under $2.2m left. From the looks of things, Addison is signing for the $787k QO, which would leave us at about $1.5m. 

That's just about where you want to be.

But, to answer your question directly, I think it is telling how the Wild went about this business. With Goose2 and Duey filing for arbitration, Shooter prioritized their signings. Addison simply has to wait until those deals are done. That means that Addison is low man in priority, and doesn't have arbitration rights and really has no leverage at all. But, if he were to demand more, he would likely be quickly shipped off, Faber moves into the top 4 category and we sign a cheap vet defender, hopefully with some size, for league minimum. 

The way I could see that playing out is having a couple of PTO 3rd pairing defenders in camp competing against Hunt and O'Rourke for the final spot. Goligoski could slide over to the right side if need be. So, I would assume that the 2 PTO guys would be RHS players with a bit of sandpaper to their game. Luke Schenn types. Perhaps we even convince Braun to come out of retirement for one more go, since he'd be at home for half the year?  

[vonlonster67]

On 7/23/2023 at 3:32 PM, mnfaninnc said:

The verdict is in for Samsonov, 1 yr. at $3.55m. According to my math, that sided a little bit towards the Maple Leaf's numbers. Samsonov had an extra year of starting experience ahead of Goose2, and it looks like he's 1+ years older than our goalie. 

I would have to say that it's a pretty fair comparable, and I'd expect Goose2 to slot in somewhere around 2 X $3.2m if that's the comparable. I'd be looking at '23=$3m, '24=$3.4m. It's a bit on the higher side for me, as I believe he should be slotted somewhere <$2m this coming year on a 1-way deal. That's usually the progression since he really was a rookie last season. 

Does Shooter ink him this week, or wait on Swayman? Does Goose2 have to swallow some pride? I think the ball may be in Gustavsson's agent's court right now.

I feel GUS needs to sign before arbitration or it will spin out of control if it goes that far. I don't get the impression that he is in control of his agent and a few $100,000 more is not gonna really set him up any better.

Is he worried he cant beat out Wallsted in a year and he's just getting as much as he can and gonna move on. I know team mates say they are supportive of each player getting their money, but this team has several examples of players being reasonable and happy with their team situation knowing it isn't always greener when there's more "green" somewhere else.

Ya gotta be happy with where you are and that also has to factor in, a place to raise your family, a great locker room. This could be a Talbot situation real soon.

Edited July 24, 2023 by vonlonster67

[mnfaninnc]

4 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

Is he worried he cant beat out Wallsted in a year and he's just getting as much as he can and gonna move on. I know team mates say they are supportive of each player getting their money, but this team has several examples of players being reasonable and happy with their their situation knowing it isn't always greener when there's more "green" somewhere else.

Ya gotta be happy with where you are and that also has to factor in, a place to raise your family, a great locker room. This could be a Talbot situation real soon.

I don't think you have to worry about this:

1. Gustavsson is a Swede, they think differently
2. Gustavsson grew up in the same program as The Wall, they will be happy to be teammates
3. Talbot had a chip on his shoulder and was certain he should be the starter. Goose2 does not.
4. He may want to wait for Swayman's deal to make sure, but it looks like the market is set.
5. He may not even be in the country right now. 

[vonlonster67]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

I don't think you have to worry about this:

1. Gustavsson is a Swede, they think differently
2. Gustavsson grew up in the same program as The Wall, they will be happy to be teammates
3. Talbot had a chip on his shoulder and was certain he should be the starter. Goose2 does not.
4. He may want to wait for Swayman's deal to make sure, but it looks like the market is set.
5. He may not even be in the country right now. 

If this is the case he could have made a statement today by signing a deal.

I could see BG rolling the dice now and paying whatever the arbitrator comes up with (Also using Swayman's deal) so they can get their two year deal guaranteeing Wallsted another AHL year. They have the cap space to go two years with Gus and it would be an easy Swede connection.  Wallsted basically replaced Gus when Gus was drafted out of Sweden by Ottawa. Also gives the Wall a few test call ups if the Flower goes south sitting on the bench so many games.

That would be an ideal situation giving us a 1A-1B set up for the following year in '24-25..

 

[mnfaninnc]

14 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

If this is the case he could have made a statement today by signing a deal.

While the fans love to be in the know on all this stuff, Shooter tends to keep this sort of thing private. Perhaps there is a basic parameter of the contract already in place, but it's not a done deal until it's signed. 

If I were Gustavsson and still in Sweden for another week, I wouldn't worry too much about it until returning to the States next week. He'd need to be there for the arbitration hearing. They could have an oral agreement already, but it's not official until signed. Perhaps some small details still need to be worked out? 

The key is that this will get done, and it should be in the $3.2m neighborhood (which I again believe is too high). The thing we definitely know is that we do not have room for a Dumba reunion. 

[Will D. Ness]

5 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

The thing we definitely know is that we do not have room for a Dumba reunion. 

Addition by subtraction IMO.  There is a reason he is still a FA and wasn't traded last season.

Also, I have no prob overpaying Gus a little.  I don't want the option of bringing in rental vets and would rather be forced to give the youth the opportunity.

[Up North Guy]

7 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

Addition by subtraction IMO.  There is a reason he is still a FA and wasn't traded last season.

Also, I have no prob overpaying Gus a little.  I don't want the option of bringing in rental vets and would rather be forced to give the youth the opportunity.

I think Dumba's problem is that money is limited because the cap did not go up much. Also, all the GM's know that Dumba's game is good but not star rated anymore. His offense disappeared after the injury. His defense improved some last year (2nd half) but by how much? He also may be waiting until Karlsson's situation is settled.

[vonlonster67]

18 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

While the fans love to be in the know on all this stuff, Shooter tends to keep this sort of thing private. Perhaps there is a basic parameter of the contract already in place, but it's not a done deal until it's signed. 

If I were Gustavsson and still in Sweden for another week, I wouldn't worry too much about it until returning to the States next week. He'd need to be there for the arbitration hearing. They could have an oral agreement already, but it's not official until signed. Perhaps some small details still need to be worked out? 

The key is that this will get done, and it should be in the $3.2m neighborhood (which I again believe is too high). The thing we definitely know is that we do not have room for a Dumba reunion. 

If its 3.2 for two years I would be overjoyed. My hunch is he's asking for well over 4 which is why this is dragging out. We paid Talbot 3.6 and Flower 3.5 for the backside of their careers.

I still cant figure why everyone thinks we need/want Dumba back, but they'll line up with their hearts to get it done. I say addition by subtraction. He's not the Dumba of early years on or off the ice. Let's move on already!

[Will D. Ness]

7 hours ago, Up North Guy said:

I think Dumba's problem is that money is limited because the cap did not go up much. Also, all the GM's know that Dumba's game is good but not star rated anymore. His offense disappeared after the injury. His defense improved some last year (2nd half) but by how much? He also may be waiting until Karlsson's situation is settled.

I agree, he strangely had some sort of epiphany on defense last season, but even then not even close to 6M.  I would say he is worth 2M as a good third pair option.  He plays tough.  We will miss that for sure.  

[Up North Guy]

18 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

I agree, he strangely had some sort of epiphany on defense last season, but even then not even close to 6M.  I would say he is worth 2M as a good third pair option.  He plays tough.  We will miss that for sure.  

I ten to think he is worth more than that. I would say 3-3.5 and most likely 2nd pair. Length of contract is a huge factor for guys in situations like Dumba.

[mnfaninnc]

20 hours ago, Up North Guy said:

I ten to think he is worth more than that. I would say 3-3.5 and most likely 2nd pair. Length of contract is a huge factor for guys in situations like Dumba.

He really needs to sign a 1 year low deal somewhere with no trade protection, and hope his season is better for a nice cap increase in '24. I don't even think we could fit him in for $1m, but playing out another season here would be in his best interest, maybe not ours. 

Why? He knows this system very well. He has chemistry with Brodin. He knows the locker room. 

But here's an interesting question: If we did sign him for 1 year $1m, would we be able to move Merrill and his $1.2m deal? That could definitely help out our situation, as, that would allow for one of the kids to take a spot next year. But, we wouldn't have to do it, we could stash Faber in Iowa with no waivers and bring him up when there are injuries.

Also, having a hungry Faber ready to take a spot, could that serve as motivation for Addison to defend better? I could see a lineup where Faber plays right side and Addison plays left side. I do wonder if Brodin could help cure Addison's defending issues. I also wonder where Goligoski fits in on all of this?

[Protec]

An Addison - Faber pairing is interesting. You might think two opposite types of player might equalize for a perfect combination pairing? I would like that and don't strain to imagine it.

Can Addison defend down low and around the net in the D zone though?