Article: The Wild Pioneered the New Age Of Drafting For Need This Year

[Justin Hein]

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[Beast]

Drafting for need is a strategy I absolutely hate.

A team drafting based on the best overall talent available is always coming out with more organizational value than a team drafting on positional need.

[mnfaninnc]

Quote

There’s no question that Stramel has NHL tools, but Minnesota is betting on those tools like a gambler going all-in on a single number on a roulette wheel. If Stramel ever cracks the first or second line, he’ll need to drive NHL offense in a way he’s never done in the NCAA. Given the state of the University of Wisconsin’s men’s hockey program last year, that remains a distinct possibility. 

Does it though? If we have big centers who can play a 200' game and ran the offense through the wings, wouldn't that work? I think our problem has been center depth and we've plugged wings into centers who can compete against 20/32 teams at that spot, but simply are outclassed when we play top 10 teams in a series. The general thought is that the centers drive the play, but with Boldy and Kaprizov liking pucks on their sticks and Khus$%^ and Yurov coming, I'd think that the center driver might be overblown.

Ek is a really good center for this structure. He plays the 200' game but isn't that play driving playmaker, he's more of a guy who can hammer home garbage in front of the net. He'll make a few nice passes, but his game is a lot more simple. Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Boldy are the guys with the fancy passes, Ek is more of a "clean up on aisle 4" kind of guy. He is also very aggressive in taking the body in the offensive zone freeing up the wingers to make the plays. 

While Hartsy had a nice season 2 years ago, and Freddy had a pretty nice one last season, they still are better wings, or, rather wings who can play center. What we really need for those top 10 teams are real centers to at least cancel out what the opposing centers do. And Heidt appears to be far more physical than I first thought, a feisty player who's a big center in a smaller body. Heidt, I believe, can be that driving play center. 

I'm pretty ready to consider the rebuild over at this point. Now it's just about developing the guys we got and eventually plugging them in. We still have a couple of holes, mainly size on the back end, but some of that can be had if our 6'2" guys bulk up. I would have liked a couple of monsters back there, though. 

[Jon]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

Drafting for need is a strategy I absolutely hate.

A team drafting based on the best overall talent available is always coming out with more organizational value than a team drafting on positional need.

I hear you. Personally, I agree too. However, I also like the exceptions this year in how they drafted for down the middle. 
 

They are rare. But I think there are exceptions to your rule. I’m hoping the Wild are one of them.

[Protec]

I think the draft went really well. They had zero big center prospects. Small to average NHL size players. Drafting for positional need in a deep draft and getting three guys all projected in the 20-50 range was good. The ceiling is up for debate but based on the strength of this draft, could players like the ones the Wild picked be much higher quality than 21st or 53rd in 2018 or 2021? I think most would say. yes. Then the question is, to what degree? Would Stramel be perceived more highly if he weren't overshadowed in a year with Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, etc.???

It was a good time to target players who had size that were 200' guys. The greasy goals still count. I'll be happy when the WIld get harder to play against.

 

[B1GKappa97]

17 hours ago, Beast said:

Drafting for need is a strategy I absolutely hate.

A team drafting based on the best overall talent available is always coming out with more organizational value than a team drafting on positional need.

That's what he is saying. The Wild have been doing that. This year they didn't.

I think there's a time and place for BPA, personally. Obviously it always sounds great to take the 'best player available' but how does that help build a complete team if you're always grabbing 'top-6' wingers? That's how you end up with a Freddy G or Ryan Hartman playing as your top-6 center(s). Its okay in the regular season but definitely a noticeable drop in performance come the playoffs. 

I'm glad we finally got another middle-6 C with some good size over taking the smaller more 'skilled' guy who would be buried on the depth chart. We could certainly use another Ek more than we need another Rossi. 

[B1GKappa97]

I think they recognize that they're loaded with 'top-6' skill guys and need the grittier middle-6 players now. Oghren and now Stramel are both big guys who probably aren't top-liners by skill but will still play key roles for this club if they make it to the NHL. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by B1GKappa97

[Justin Hein]

20 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Does it though? If we have big centers who can play a 200' game and ran the offense through the wings, wouldn't that work? I think our problem has been center depth and we've plugged wings into centers who can compete against 20/32 teams at that spot, but simply are outclassed when we play top 10 teams in a series. The general thought is that the centers drive the play, but with Boldy and Kaprizov liking pucks on their sticks and Khus$%^ and Yurov coming, I'd think that the center driver might be overblown.

You make some good points here about the center depth during Dean's tenure especially. The truth is that Kaprizov and Boldy are great pieces, but they don't make a championship top-six. Eriksson Ek is a middle-six center on a championship team, which means we need much more firepower -- usually, that has to be drafted. 

As far as play-driving, it's a term that can mean a lot of things but you make a good point that Eriksson Ek fits that role. He isn't an incredible skater, and neither of Boldy or Kaprizov have elite top-end speed. Each of these guys is more of a skating technician. Minnesota's breakout is largely predicated on both wingers leaving the zone early as a result. Hopefully the youth movement can help with this, but neither Ohgren nor Rossi has that top-speed. Elite centers often have foot speed just like elite wingers, and at some point as the D corps ages they need easier outlet passes to fast players. Hopefully Stramel's jump-out-the-gym athleticism can help with that speed up the middle. 

[Justin Hein]

21 hours ago, Beast said:

Drafting for need is a strategy I absolutely hate.

A team drafting based on the best overall talent available is always coming out with more organizational value than a team drafting on positional need.

I'm typically in this camp as well, but at some point you have to pay market rate for a center through the draft, free agency, or a trade. While there were likely better wing prospects available, you can't just keep converting the Ryan Hartman's of the world to center, or expecting bottom-six centers to fill the top-line center role on a discount. 

I will admit that it takes a lot of squinting, but I can see the vision with the draft strategy this year. 

[Justin Hein]

1 hour ago, B1GKappa97 said:

I think they recognize that they're loaded with 'top-6' skill guys and need the grittier middle-6 players now. Oghren and now Stramel are both big guys who probably aren't top-liners by skill but will still play key roles for this club if they make it to the NHL. 

Unless Rossi takes a massive leap or Khusnutdinov is deeply underrated, there is not a top-line center in this organization. Stramel and Heidt open that door again two to four years down the road, but it's still a bit bleak. They will need to trade for one or over-pay in free agency unless one of these two guys hits, which is exactly why the team took those swings in the first place.

They are more likely to be trade pieces used to acquire a top line center, than they are to actually become a top line center. 

[Justin Hein]

16 hours ago, Protec said:

I think the draft went really well. They had zero big center prospects. Small to average NHL size players. Drafting for positional need in a deep draft and getting three guys all projected in the 20-50 range was good. The ceiling is up for debate but based on the strength of this draft, could players like the ones the Wild picked be much higher quality than 21st or 53rd in 2018 or 2021? I think most would say. yes. Then the question is, to what degree? Would Stramel be perceived more highly if he weren't overshadowed in a year with Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, etc.???

It was a good time to target players who had size that were 200' guys. The greasy goals still count. I'll be happy when the WIld get harder to play against.

 

These players have a chance to become a top line center. It's more likely that they're traded away in order to acquire a top-line center. If I had to guess, this is why you see the Wild going after Old School prospects -- their market value over the next 2-3 years may be more important than their on-ice value. 

[Will D. Ness]

4 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

Unless Rossi takes a massive leap or Khusnutdinov is deeply underrated, there is not a top-line center in this organization. Stramel and Heidt open that door again two to four years down the road, but it's still a bit bleak. They will need to trade for one or over-pay in free agency unless one of these two guys hits, which is exactly why the team took those swings in the first place.

They are more likely to be trade pieces used to acquire a top line center, than they are to actually become a top line center. 

Overpay in FA/Trade exactly 2 years from now for who?  I think that is the interesting speculative question.

I think the wild will have a pretty wide open window of opportunity at this time.  Young team, good team.  Not much dead weight unless Spurgeon takes a nosedive.

Our GM is lining this up nicely I would say. 

 

[Protec]

7 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

If I had to guess, this is why you see the Wild going after Old School prospects -- their market value over the next 2-3 years may be more important than their on-ice value. 

Perhaps??? To some degree, this is how STL acquired O'Rielly from Buffalo. I could see the Wild doing this with their prospects the way LA did to get Fiala with Faber since they have Clarke. So I wouldn't say it's unlikely but I don't think it's the game plan.

There's some advantages to this after some time because perhaps the organization has a better overall evaluation on the prospects. This would make it clearer which players are available for trade.

Knudi, Ohgren, and players that represent formerly traded assets like Zucker or Kunin could be leveraged to get a top line center but who would that center be and when? When considering that question, it forces the question whether that's really a long-term strategy? Seems silly to make a plan that incorporates tons of unknown variables and tacks on years of watching development to place value on specific guys outside the NHL. Does a management group draft players they hope will be good trade pieces for an unknown established 1C someday? Maybe as a byproduct of building a quality prospect pool but I'm not sure that's bullet one on the draft outline.

If that was the plan, why not take Perreault or Musty and instead get Stramel? Just sayin, it could work out that way but I don't think the Wild are drafting for their future hopes of getting a 1C via trade or free agency with the guys they're selecting.

[mnfaninnc]

22 hours ago, Beast said:

Drafting for need is a strategy I absolutely hate.

A team drafting based on the best overall talent available is always coming out with more organizational value than a team drafting on positional need.

When you need everything, like we did since '19, then your strategy is the one you use. When you have a top 5 prospect pool, you can afford to be a bit choosy, and that's what we have this year. 

I always appreciated Spielman's draft organization chart where "need" actually was an evaluation point in his rankings. I think we had that here. Just because most "experts" didn't consider Stramel in the top 32, doesn't mean that the real talent evaluators didn't. There's a reason why these "experts" weren't actual Head of Scouting or GMs in real organizations. In this particular case, I think it was Guerin who trumped Judd on the 1st 2 picks, and Judd still got the guy he wanted in Heidt at 64. 

Now, I wonder how everything would have played out had Moore been available at 21 along with Stramel?

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Justin Hein said:

Elite centers often have foot speed just like elite wingers, and at some point as the D corps ages they need easier outlet passes to fast players. Hopefully Stramel's jump-out-the-gym athleticism can help with that speed up the middle. 

Seems like that footspeed is coming in Khus$%^& and Heidt. I don't believe Yurov has the footspeed, I think he's got the edges.

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Will D. Ness said:

Overpay in FA/Trade exactly 2 years from now for who?  I think that is the interesting speculative question.

Draisaitl in '25 is my target and probably the target of several teams. I can't imagine Edmonton having to pay both Draisaitl and McDavid after caps go up, especially if we'd be offering McDavid money to Draisaitl. But Shooter's got to send up the smoke signals to let Draisaitl's agent know we're serious.

[mnfaninnc]

So, while we're on the subject, let's assume a couple of things, that both Elias Lindholm & Pettersson want out of Calgary/Vancouver. What would it take to obtain either?

[Up North Guy]

23 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Does it though? If we have big centers who can play a 200' game and ran the offense through the wings, wouldn't that work? I think our problem has been center depth and we've plugged wings into centers who can compete against 20/32 teams at that spot, but simply are outclassed when we play top 10 teams in a series. The general thought is that the centers drive the play, but with Boldy and Kaprizov liking pucks on their sticks and Khus$%^ and Yurov coming, I'd think that the center driver might be overblown.

Ek is a really good center for this structure. He plays the 200' game but isn't that play driving playmaker, he's more of a guy who can hammer home garbage in front of the net. He'll make a few nice passes, but his game is a lot more simple. Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Boldy are the guys with the fancy passes, Ek is more of a "clean up on aisle 4" kind of guy. He is also very aggressive in taking the body in the offensive zone freeing up the wingers to make the plays. 

While Hartsy had a nice season 2 years ago, and Freddy had a pretty nice one last season, they still are better wings, or, rather wings who can play center. What we really need for those top 10 teams are real centers to at least cancel out what the opposing centers do. And Heidt appears to be far more physical than I first thought, a feisty player who's a big center in a smaller body. Heidt, I believe, can be that driving play center. 

I'm pretty ready to consider the rebuild over at this point. Now it's just about developing the guys we got and eventually plugging them in. We still have a couple of holes, mainly size on the back end, but some of that can be had if our 6'2" guys bulk up. I would have liked a couple of monsters back there, though. 

I tend to agree that the rebuild through the draft is coming to an ebb. I foresee a trend of filling on for need being done through trades and free agency. The guys in Iowa and prospects in general will become more of trade tender than future call-ups. The target time is the 25-26 season so recent draft picks will just be beginning their pro careers. The cap penalties will be gone and the team will be able to actualize results from all the prep work being done right now. The future is very bright. Hopefully BG can get the owner to be patient.

[Jon]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

When you need everything, like we did since '19, then your strategy is the one you use. When you have a top 5 prospect pool, you can afford to be a bit choosy, and that's what we have this year. 

I always appreciated Spielman's draft organization chart where "need" actually was an evaluation point in his rankings. I think we had that here. Just because most "experts" didn't consider Stramel in the top 32, doesn't mean that the real talent evaluators didn't. There's a reason why these "experts" weren't actual Head of Scouting or GMs in real organizations. In this particular case, I think it was Guerin who trumped Judd on the 1st 2 picks, and Judd still got the guy he wanted in Heidt at 64. 

Now, I wonder how everything would have played out had Moore been available at 21 along with Stramel?

Is Moore really that good? I have very limited information on him, but other than his speed, he didn’t strike me as a threat. He kind of reminded me of John Ross from the NFL. Potential and speed was there, however, can he play the physical game at C? I wouldn’t be against picking him over Stramel at 21.

[Jon]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

So, while we're on the subject, let's assume a couple of things, that both Elias Lindholm & Pettersson want out of Calgary/Vancouver. What would it take to obtain either?

Good question. That’s probably dependent on how badly they want to get out, like Eichel.

[mnfaninnc]

20 hours ago, Jon said:

Is Moore really that good? I have very limited information on him, but other than his speed, he didn’t strike me as a threat. He kind of reminded me of John Ross from the NFL. Potential and speed was there, however, can he play the physical game at C? I wouldn’t be against picking him over Stramel at 21.

Nobody knows if Moore is that good, but I can say he also performed well at the combine. Some were worried about his height, but his weight is up to 195, so at 5'11", that is an nhl ready body. He still has filling out to do, but appears to be a very stocky kid with the strength and low center of gravity to be strong on pucks. 

Now, we had Heidt fall to us at 64 who also has speed with an added tendency to engage in scrums and take the body. I do not know of this aspect with Moore's game, I guess we'll find out from the Gophers this season. Heidt is, however about 20 lbs. smaller than Moore. Perhaps he'll put on that weight too and hit the gym and be stocky too.

I don't know where Moore was on the preseason rankings, but at the end he was ahead of Stramel significantly on most "experts" boards. The fact that Moore was also from our own backyard made him an appealing pick.....but, so is Stramel. From their hug at the draft, it also appears that the 2 are good friends. It would be fun to see where the Wild had Moore ranked on their board and how choosing Moore would have affected our draft. Perhaps Stramel was the target all along? We will never know. 

But, my expectations from Tony, Justin, Thomas and crew is that they will uncover this draft board and let us know! 😎

[MNCountryLife]

I like what Guerin did in this draft.  IMO, we are undersized as a roster and lack depth at C.  Nothing in our pre-draft pipeline was going to solve that.  We added size and placed multiple bets at the C position to remedy both of these issues.  Our prospect pool is definitely more diverse and the Wild desperately needed that.

[Quebec1648]

On 7/4/2023 at 11:22 AM, Beast said:

Drafting for need is a strategy I absolutely hate.

A team drafting based on the best overall talent available is always coming out with more organizational value than a team drafting on positional need.

This is a flawed strategy, because then you end up with a log jam at certain positions, while still having holes to fill.

Just look at what happened to the Arizona Cardinals in football. They drafted Josh Rosen at QB one year, and then the very next year drafted Kyler Murray (best player available) who also played QB. They didn't have room or need for both, so Rosen was shown the door. They spent a 1st round pick on Rosen and wasted a year developing him, then traded him for a 2nd rounder. Murray ended up being the better choice, but the Cardinals lost time and value in the process. 

A much better option, is to draft what you're good at, and avoid the ones you're not good at. The Vikings for example, are good at drafting and developing RB, but terrible at QB. Therefore, you avoid QB on draft day, and focus on RB. You draft multiple RB, develope them and then trade one or more of them for a QB. The Vikings could become a RB development organization. By having such a reputation, they could gain Value, by potentially trading a RB for higher level talent or picks, like turning a 3rd round RB into a future 2nd round pick.

[Mateo3xm]

On 7/5/2023 at 10:29 AM, mnfaninnc said:

Seems like that footspeed is coming in Khus$%^& and Heidt. I don't believe Yurov has the footspeed, I think he's got the edges.

Yurov is a fantastic and powerful skater with speed, that’s exactly why they think he could be a Center.

he doesn’t just have edges, he has everything.

[Up North Guy]

18 hours ago, Quebec1648 said:

This is a flawed strategy, because then you end up with a log jam at certain positions, while still having holes to fill.

Just look at what happened to the Arizona Cardinals in football. They drafted Josh Rosen at QB one year, and then the very next year drafted Kyler Murray (best player available) who also played QB. They didn't have room or need for both, so Rosen was shown the door. They spent a 1st round pick on Rosen and wasted a year developing him, then traded him for a 2nd rounder. Murray ended up being the better choice, but the Cardinals lost time and value in the process. 

A much better option, is to draft what you're good at, and avoid the ones you're not good at. The Vikings for example, are good at drafting and developing RB, but terrible at QB. Therefore, you avoid QB on draft day, and focus on RB. You draft multiple RB, develope them and then trade one or more of them for a QB. The Vikings could become a RB development organization. By having such a reputation, they could gain Value, by potentially trading a RB for higher level talent or picks, like turning a 3rd round RB into a future 2nd round pick.

Not sure Arizona is a great analogy. They drafted Rosen only to learn that he was a bust. A truly bad draft pick. They drafted Murray as BPA but also because of the coach and his affinity to Murray. Football can only really use on QB at time whereas in hockey you need four every game (and maybe more).