Article: What Are the Wild's Options To Move Around the Draft Board?

[Justin Hein]

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[Up North Guy]

Not a huge fan of moving back. The Wild cupboards will be full for the next three years or more. Extra picks don't help that much if the quality is watered down even a little.

[Protec]

The Wild should look at what they can do to get Arizona or Detroit’s second first. Addison and our 21st overall for a chance to move up to 12th or 17th. Or see if you can get another early 2nd rounder. 
 

The Wild have enough young players and prospects to trade with the redundancy they have at wing. Energy guys. You gotta give something to get something. I like the change of scenery stuff and MN has done their own internal evaluations. Who are the guys who don’t fit long-term. What positions are easiest to fill in with interchangeable parts? 
 

Trying to get a quality center in this draft seems like a really good idea even if you have to sacrifice some of your assets. Detroit and Arizona are each teams that could partner with the Wild to help each other out it seems. 

 

[mnfaninnc]

Quote

Add Another First-Rounder?

Adding another first-round selection in this draft is tempting. Not only is this class packed with talent, but it may be the last class whose development timeline lines up with Guerin’s championship window. But how have other teams done it in the past? 

For those hoping the team will acquire another first-round pick on top of the 21st overall selection, pump the brakes. Teams really only part with their first-round picks in exchange for high-end trade deadline acquisitions. The late-round picks in the Wild’s pocket for 2023 don’t equate to first-round value, and teams won’t be interested in Minnesota’s 2024 draft capital due to the perceived talent of this class. That leaves the Wild with the option to deal blue-chip prospects for a top-end selection this year, but it’s tough to see how that makes sense with cap constraints in the next two years. 

As scintillating as this class is, it may be in the team’s best interest to dangle pick 21 in exchange for 2024 draft picks. The return would have to be very large, but there’s no reason some desperate GM wouldn’t try it. An extra first-rounder also opens up possibilities to move up the board next year or make a major move at the trade deadline. 

Put me in this camp. I'm pretty sure we will need to "overpay" to do this, but this is exactly what we need to do. I am not sure which prospects are ready, but we've got one of the top 3 rated prospect pools in the league. Since they are older, I'd think a D+2 or 3 might be more valuable to a team that is looking for help now to make the jump.

I'm not sure which writers to trust, but Wheeler had Danielson and Ritchie listed lower than some of the other guys. Moore is still pretty high, and I think we're going to miss out on that one. 

Looking at the board for targets, I'm seeing

• Washington 8
• Detroit 9, 17
• Arizona 12
• Buffalo 13
• Pittsburgh 14
• Calgary 16
• Seattle 20

as possible targets. Out of these teams, their prospect pool rankings are

• Pittsburgh 29
• Washington 25
• Calgary 20
• Seattle 15
• Arizona 9
• Buffalo 6
• Detroit 4

If I'm looking at this, it would appear that Washington and Pittsburgh could use quantity depth. Both appear to be in win now scenarios. They're not trying to win their division, just get an invitation to the dance and maybe see some magic.

Calgary just had a complete change in leadership. Their pool is not deep, their roster could see changes, nobody is married to any of the players now, and I'd inquire about Connor Zary too. Calgary could probably use a defender like Addison. Who knows what direction they want to go in, but Maloney was a grinder and I'd think he appreciates that part of the game. 

Seattle appears to not have depth due to expansion. I listed them, but I'd think it was a longshot. Their window is opening, though, and perhaps they'd want some players closer to the NHL than waiting so long. Francis likes quantity picks and has done well in the 3rd round. He might be one to trade the 2 seconds with.

Arizona, Buffalo, and Detroit all have good prospect pools too. Do they have the right mix? Are they missing parts? Buffalo could maybe use a left handed puck moving defender. AZ has drafted a lot of players the last couple of years, they also might be in the mix for defensive help. Detroit might be a place to go if there is a dropping Edstrom, although, he seems like the kind of player they'd take. On Edstrom, I keep seeing him in the late 40s and up. 

Do we have useful parts for these teams? Parts that could be teamed up with picks to move us into multiple first round picks? I would certainly hope so. 

This past year, NJ was the team that made the jump knocking out Washington. Washington has said it wants to remain relevant while Ovechkin is still playing. They would need the most NHL ready players to get back in the playoff picture. I see AZ, Buffalo, and Detroit all wanting to make that leap.

Boston just won the President's trophy, but if Krejci and Bergeron retire, I'd expect them to be vulnerable. NYI is old and also vulnerable. Detroit hung in there for awhile, and they need top 9 calibre guys. Buffalo wilted at the end and also need NHL ready guys to make the leap. I'd think we might be able to work with that. 

Justin mentions it might be better to trade down and collect '24 picks. I think that would be a mistake for us, maybe we could get someone else in a different position who might like that idea, but this draft should be our last of the rebuild. '24 and '25 picks should be on the table to move up in this one. Anyone not named Ek, Kaprizov, Boldy, Brodin and Faber, Yurov, Wallstedt, Gustavsson should be on the table for this one. 

While we sit on pins and needles, just itching to make a deal, the reality is that there will be contingency plans for how the draft falls. If Moore is available at a certain slot, can we jump? If Danielson and Ritchie are on the board can we get both? That all happens at the table in Nashville and not before. 

Also, is there any talk in the Twin Cities about Logan Cooley maybe playing out his college eligibility and not signing with AZ? Could he have fallen in love with the area and maybe, just want to stay? No one would get him until '26.

[Justin Hein]

11 minutes ago, Protec said:

The Wild should look at what they can do to get Arizona or Detroit’s second first. Addison and our 21st overall for a chance to move up to 12th or 17th. Or see if you can get another early 2nd rounder. 
 

The Wild have enough young players and prospects to trade with the redundancy they have at wing. Energy guys. You gotta give something to get something. I like the change of scenery stuff and MN has done their own internal evaluations. Who are the guys who don’t fit long-term. What positions are easiest to fill in with interchangeable parts? 
 

Trying to get a quality center in this draft seems like a really good idea even if you have to sacrifice some of your assets. Detroit and Arizona are each teams that could partner with the Wild to help each other out it seems. 

 

17 could be do-able, I think 12 would be really costly to get up to. Detroit already has a ton of 2nd rounders, so I don't know that they'd be interested in that move when they already have enough picks in this draft to essentially re-stock their pipeline. Who would you take at 12 or 17?

[Justin Hein]

17 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

Not a huge fan of moving back. The Wild cupboards will be full for the next three years or more. Extra picks don't help that much if the quality is watered down even a little.

If Minnesota were in this position in a normal class, I'd agree. Given that there are true 1st-round prospects well into the 2nd round, I think it could be prudent to trade back from 21 unless a center is there. The team could then use pick 63/64 to get wherever they want in the early 2nd round. Until the team has 18 can't-miss prospects joining the roster next year, you can never have the cupboards "full" but I get what you mean here. Trading back is boring. 

[Justin Hein]

31 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Put me in this camp. I'm pretty sure we will need to "overpay" to do this, but this is exactly what we need to do. I am not sure which prospects are ready, but we've got one of the top 3 rated prospect pools in the league. Since they are older, I'd think a D+2 or 3 might be more valuable to a team that is looking for help now to make the jump.

I'm not sure which writers to trust, but Wheeler had Danielson and Ritchie listed lower than some of the other guys. Moore is still pretty high, and I think we're going to miss out on that one. 

Looking at the board for targets, I'm seeing

• Washington 8
• Detroit 9, 17
• Arizona 12
• Buffalo 13
• Pittsburgh 14
• Calgary 16
• Seattle 20

as possible targets. Out of these teams, their prospect pool rankings are

• Pittsburgh 29
• Washington 25
• Calgary 20
• Seattle 15
• Arizona 9
• Buffalo 6
• Detroit 4

If I'm looking at this, it would appear that Washington and Pittsburgh could use quantity depth. Both appear to be in win now scenarios. They're not trying to win their division, just get an invitation to the dance and maybe see some magic.

Calgary just had a complete change in leadership. Their pool is not deep, their roster could see changes, nobody is married to any of the players now, and I'd inquire about Connor Zary too. Calgary could probably use a defender like Addison. Who knows what direction they want to go in, but Maloney was a grinder and I'd think he appreciates that part of the game. 

Seattle appears to not have depth due to expansion. I listed them, but I'd think it was a longshot. Their window is opening, though, and perhaps they'd want some players closer to the NHL than waiting so long. Francis likes quantity picks and has done well in the 3rd round. He might be one to trade the 2 seconds with.

Arizona, Buffalo, and Detroit all have good prospect pools too. Do they have the right mix? Are they missing parts? Buffalo could maybe use a left handed puck moving defender. AZ has drafted a lot of players the last couple of years, they also might be in the mix for defensive help. Detroit might be a place to go if there is a dropping Edstrom, although, he seems like the kind of player they'd take. On Edstrom, I keep seeing him in the late 40s and up. 

Do we have useful parts for these teams? Parts that could be teamed up with picks to move us into multiple first round picks? I would certainly hope so. 

This past year, NJ was the team that made the jump knocking out Washington. Washington has said it wants to remain relevant while Ovechkin is still playing. They would need the most NHL ready players to get back in the playoff picture. I see AZ, Buffalo, and Detroit all wanting to make that leap.

Boston just won the President's trophy, but if Krejci and Bergeron retire, I'd expect them to be vulnerable. NYI is old and also vulnerable. Detroit hung in there for awhile, and they need top 9 calibre guys. Buffalo wilted at the end and also need NHL ready guys to make the leap. I'd think we might be able to work with that. 

Justin mentions it might be better to trade down and collect '24 picks. I think that would be a mistake for us, maybe we could get someone else in a different position who might like that idea, but this draft should be our last of the rebuild. '24 and '25 picks should be on the table to move up in this one. Anyone not named Ek, Kaprizov, Boldy, Brodin and Faber, Yurov, Wallstedt, Gustavsson should be on the table for this one. 

While we sit on pins and needles, just itching to make a deal, the reality is that there will be contingency plans for how the draft falls. If Moore is available at a certain slot, can we jump? If Danielson and Ritchie are on the board can we get both? That all happens at the table in Nashville and not before. 

Also, is there any talk in the Twin Cities about Logan Cooley maybe playing out his college eligibility and not signing with AZ? Could he have fallen in love with the area and maybe, just want to stay? No one would get him until '26.

Not a bad idea, but I just don't see a deal to add a 1st rounder that costs less than a future 1st + Rossi or Addison (I don't even know if that gets it done). I do wish that the team had preserved Addison's trade value better, because the tools he had on display could have been a ticket up the draft board if he hadn't been benched. Keep an eye out for using one of these 2nd rounders to jump up for one of your guys though, I get the sense that the front office probably wants to add another center to the pool this year. Should be an exciting draft day!

[Imyourhuckleberry]

I could see Addison and a 2nd round pick maybe being tempting for a team around the end of the 1st round.

Alternatively, the Blues have their own pick at #10, along with pick #25 and pick #29.  If the Blues love someone at #21 and don't want to miss out on them 4 picks later, perhaps the Wild could trade their pick and both seconds to capture both of those late 1st round picks from St. Louis.

It will be interesting to see if the Wild stay put or if they make any deals. Hopefully they add some impact talent that will help them in 2-3 years.

[Justin Hein]

54 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I could see Addison and a 2nd round pick maybe being tempting for a team around the end of the 1st round.

Alternatively, the Blues have their own pick at #10, along with pick #25 and pick #29.  If the Blues love someone at #21 and don't want to miss out on them 4 picks later, perhaps the Wild could trade their pick and both seconds to capture both of those late 1st round picks from St. Louis.

It will be interesting to see if the Wild stay put or if they make any deals. Hopefully they add some impact talent that will help them in 2-3 years.

That would be a hell of a trade back, but in a sense this might be the draft where somebody does something crazy for their draft crush. Trade charts show that this would be like adding a late first rounder out of thin air, so Minnesota would still probably have to give back at least one of our second-rounders but this is why I'd love a mild trade back this season. For the price of a 1st and a 2nd, you end up with what would normally be two 1st-round prospects. 

 

Trade chart I've been using is here: https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/

[Protec]

6 hours ago, Justin Hein said:

17 could be do-able, I think 12 would be really costly to get up to. Detroit already has a ton of 2nd rounders, so I don't know that they'd be interested in that move when they already have enough picks in this draft to essentially re-stock their pipeline. Who would you take at 12 or 17?

I'd be more confident in getting Danielson or Heidt around 12 or 17. I don't think either will be there at 21st.

I think the Wild's 21st overall pick is after the top centers but too early for some of the second tier centers. Of course that's based on some surface level research. 

If the Wild stay at 21 but take a NA center who isn't undersized I'd be okay with that. If they could move up to 12 or 17, I'd be alright with giving up an asset or two with 21st if it means the Wild get a quality center prospect.

My other idea was to trade up with Pittsburgh like Fleury and 21st plus Foligno for 14th. Get them into win now mode with their old goalie back to replace Jarry, take the body guy with Foligno, and they pick 21st. The Wild could get a good center at 14th and open up cap space and roster spots for young players like Beckman, and Walker til Shaw gets back. Or perhaps if Pittsburgh doesn't have money for Flogino's whole contract the Wild could retain 1M or maybe move another prospect to jump from 21 to 14...

[mnfaninnc]

6 hours ago, Justin Hein said:

Who would you take at 12 or 17?

12 I'd be looking at a falling Moore. 17 I'd be looking at Danielson. 21 I'm looking at Ritchie. 2/3 of those is my ultimate goal, though I'd really like all 3.

I'd be willing to part with roster players, prospects, and picks for the next 2 years (top 10 protected). Most likely deal is a combination of these things. 

Maybe you wait, too. These guys might still be available at D+1. I'd be all over Zary and Cooley if there is an inkling of availability. It is time to get aggressive!

[mnfaninnc]

6 hours ago, Justin Hein said:

Not a bad idea, but I just don't see a deal to add a 1st rounder that costs less than a future 1st + Rossi or Addison

I'd be willing to do this with Addison. Rossi would be harder for me since it's like wasting 3 years of development, but that depends on the internal evaluations. It might be worth it for one of the 3 of Moore, Danielson, and Ritchie. 

I'm also reading that Ritchie and Danielson are slipping in the rankings by some, and played on lesser CHL teams. We'd need to take this into account with their stats. These guys might be better playmakers than originally thought but never had quality finishers on their team.

I have to repeat this again, it is so nice when the author joins us in the comments area. It's like having a roundtable discussion! Thanks for stopping by Justin!

Edited June 7, 2023 by mnfaninnc

[Imyourhuckleberry]

5 hours ago, Justin Hein said:

Trade charts show that this would be like adding a late first rounder out of thin air, so Minnesota would still probably have to give back at least one of our second-rounders but this is why I'd love a mild trade back this season.

I did say the Wild would give up both 2nd round picks in that exchange.

That would be Pick#21, Pick#53, and Pick#64 for picks #25 & #29.

I appreciate you sharing the trade chart. According to that, the Wild would come out ahead around the equivalent of a 3rd round pick(pick#75), but that's not insane if the Blues absolutely love a guy that they just don't want to miss out on. Possibly could have someone slide that they were somewhat considering at pick#10 when they were on the clock.

Doubtful that it happens, but you just never know. As a side note, #29 is Dallas' pick, so had they won the Stanley Cup, it would be pick#32 and the total trade value would be fairly close in that scenario. The Wild don't have a 3rd to throw into the deal, but could maybe add a late round pick and/or a more marginal prospect.

[Protec]

Wild should trade a future pick or current prospect who they've further evaluated that has a higher perceived value to other GMs. The Wild will really have to sweeten the pot to get a higher pick or second pick in the 1st or early 2nd. 

Addison has value but is questionable whether he fits in MN. That's something another GM might see while MN has him scratched and they start to think they're a guru. Like the guy from the other thread argued, Jim Benning is the senior guru and Brackett can't be blamed for not picking Tkachuk. That could work to the Wild's advantage being able to move Addison+2024 1st or whatever to get a pick that nets the Wild a center.

It's just not likely ever to come via trade or UFA because of the stars that need to align. The easiest way, arguably the only way to get nice centers is via drafting.

Buffalo have done great cause they've got two really nice centers in Middlestadt & Cozens. Then via trade got Thompson & Krebs while they're still unproven but with big potential took former top centers to get.(Eichel, O'Reilly)

Just appears to me, now is the time in this draft to address the issue. Most importantly because Rossi is not there yet and Knudi isn't verifiable NHL value. I.e. can't count un-hatched chickens.

[mnfaninnc]

18 hours ago, Justin Hein said:

If Minnesota were in this position in a normal class, I'd agree. Given that there are true 1st-round prospects well into the 2nd round, I think it could be prudent to trade back from 21 unless a center is there.

This may be true, but wouldn't it be better to move up and take some normal top 10 guys in the teens? Most of your 1st rounders at 21 have their fair share of warts. These guys will be better. We always complain about not having enough early picks to get skill, now we have that opportunity.

[Pewterschmidt]

Catch lightning in a bottle this year Judd, or I will re-brand you Judd the Pud going forward

[Mateo3xm]

On 6/6/2023 at 1:35 PM, Up North Guy said:

Not a huge fan of moving back. The Wild cupboards will be full for the next three years or more. Extra picks don't help that much if the quality is watered down even a little.

Not all of those prospects will pan out and there isn’t any elite talent in the system so you can never have enough prospects.

prospects are also good trading chips.

However I don’t want them to trade down because we need talent at C and there should be some solid players available at 21.

[Mateo3xm]

On 6/6/2023 at 8:17 PM, Protec said:

I'd be more confident in getting Danielson or Heidt around 12 or 17. I don't think either will be there at 21st.

I think the Wild's 21st overall pick is after the top centers but too early for some of the second tier centers. Of course that's based on some surface level research. 

If the Wild stay at 21 but take a NA center who isn't undersized I'd be okay with that. If they could move up to 12 or 17, I'd be alright with giving up an asset or two with 21st if it means the Wild get a quality center prospect.

My other idea was to trade up with Pittsburgh like Fleury and 21st plus Foligno for 14th. Get them into win now mode with their old goalie back to replace Jarry, take the body guy with Foligno, and they pick 21st. The Wild could get a good center at 14th and open up cap space and roster spots for young players like Beckman, and Walker til Shaw gets back. Or perhaps if Pittsburgh doesn't have money for Flogino's whole contract the Wild could retain 1M or maybe move another prospect to jump from 21 to 14...

Heidt is projected to go in the 2nd round now by the athletic and many other knowledgeable people.

his stock has slid a lot in the last month or so.

it’s his decision making and lack of defense from what I keep hearing. He’s also small.

Edstrom has been one of the highest risers on multiple outlets. He’s 6’3 C who had 4pts in 11 SHL games and had just as many points as Ritchie and Moore in the U18 world championships. He can skate and is very good Defensively. I’d rather him than Heidt now.

 

Pittsburg isn’t going to want our old worn out players. Fleury has no trade value and Foligno is declining.

[mnfaninnc]

On 6/10/2023 at 4:09 PM, Mateo3xm said:

Pittsburg isn’t going to want our old worn out players. Fleury has no trade value and Foligno is declining.

Why not? Pittsburgh is still in win now mode. I could see them doing something with Addison too. Addison, to me, seems to be more in the Letang class potential, and I could see them seeing him that way.

[Protec]

The number of good players available might make it more likely teams would be willing to move around the 11-21 range.

For teams like Pittsburgh who need to start thinking of the future, or ARI & DET who could also add assets by moving back with their picks in that range, I think MN would be smart to do it in this draft. If possible. 

[Mateo3xm]

11 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Why not? Pittsburgh is still in win now mode. I could see them doing something with Addison too. Addison, to me, seems to be more in the Letang class potential, and I could see them seeing him that way.

Then why did they trade him to us?

Pittsburg is just as aware as everyone else that you need size on the back end in the playoffs.

fleury is junk and Foligno has no trade value.

[Protec]

^^^

The Wild got Addison from the old GM who wanted Zucker. I don't know if Addison to Pittsburgh has the warm and fuzzy reunion feel of Fleury going back perhaps with a strong veteran forward like Foligno. That'd be my first attempt to move up to 14th with those two, plus 21st although they might not have the cap space? Pittsburgh is still in win now territory and veterans are what you need, not 18 year-old picks as much.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Protec