Article: Next Season Could Be Make-Or-Break For Jared Spurgeon

[Tony Abbott]

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[mnfaninnc]

The numbers tell a decent story, now, does the eye test follow? I think it does. Twice in the Dallas series, I saw Spurgeon get physically overwhelmed in front of his net, stuff that usually doesn't happen to him. And, it wasn't and Addison ole either, he just got manhandled. He tried hard, but the size was too much for him. 

Is Tony's theory right, is he just too small to handle the postseason? I think part of that is right, but there's another aspect. Where the Wild finish usually gets them a top 8 team draw in the 1st round. I think we see a nearly flawless Spurgeon when it comes to the bottom 16 teams, an excellent Spurgeon when it comes to the bottom 21, but against the top 8-10, we see a 2nd pairing Spurgeon. 

Essentially, that means that the top pairing of whoever we meet in the 1st round is better than our top pairing. I think we make up a little ground on our 2nd and 3rd pairing to even out the defensive depth, but those top pairings are really good. Also, if we're being really honest, Middleton is not a top pairing guy either, he's a great pair for Spurgeon, but he's not a top pair guy in this league. 

So, the combination of not being as good as the pairs he goes up against + his smaller size = playoff falloff.  It's obvious in the numbers, and in the eye test as well. So, let's just trade Spurgeon and problem's solved?

If we trade Spurgeon it is a 2 part transaction. The 1st shoe is trading him, and at this time, he is undervalued for his cap number. The 2nd shoe is replacing him. Currently, we have nobody in the system who we can plug in there. A UFA is going to cost way too much. We'd need to trade for a guy to take that spot, and RHS #1Ds are 2nd in compensation to #1Cs. 

Maybe in '25 one of these RHS #1Ds is available in UFA, but until then, we're stuck. But, that means we'll need both a #1C and a #1D! Hard task, maybe another July 4th signing?

[MNCountryLife]

Our top 2 D players are Spurgeon and Brodin.  You don't get better by trading away your two best D.  I think the argument could be made that Spurgeon's 7.575 AAV is a bit high.  The Wild have made a living by having solid D play from our top 4 of Spurgeon, Brodin, Middleton and Dumba.  They are the reason we are goalie friendly in this league.  Losing Dumba is going to seriously hurt.  I am hoping Faber can take Dumba's place.... or Dumba is willing to take a team friendly contract.  We lose Dumba and Spurgeon and this team is in trouble.  We saw what happens when you place a subpar D-zone player like Addison on the ice.  

[Protec]

I'm happy when hockey players can get paid a big payday. Especially a guy like Spurgeon, rewarded when he got the contract for the value he's brought to the Wild. We noted at the time it would carry into his 30's. Would he be able to maintain effectiveness? I think he's been durable, productive, and earning the AAV. He might have had a poor playoffs but so did the team. Getting shelled in game two wasn't good for anyone's numbers in one series.

I think you simply watch to see if a trend develops while you're trying to get bigger on the back end without sacrificing mobility amongst the defense. Bigger is longer, therefore taking away more space with the stick if all things are equal. I don't see Spurgeon having a steep decline. At the same time, better one year too early than too late. His value will likely diminish as he gets older but potentially just on paper relative to cost. I'm sure #46 can still be an NHL player at the end of his deal but 7.5M won't pay dividends like when the deal is signed. Nor will he be a coveted piece to add unless he goes full Matt Cullen and plays for 1M.

From the organizational side it's a tough one because he's such a solid and well-liked player that you'd really need a good reason to trade him. More than what we expected, which was that as the contract aged, it was likely to see some effect of getting older or being less effective overall. I expected Spurgeon to finish the contract here becoming like a mentor-guy getting reduced TOI til the end of the deal like Koivu if becoming a detriment.

 

[Quebec1648]

I think many teams would love to have a guy like Spurgeon on the team, they just wouldn`t use him as the #1 defenseman. If Spurgeon / Middleton were the 2nd pairing, I think they would be fantastic in that role. I know the Wild don't have the cap space to get a new #1 on defense, but I think they should at least consider making a line change. Let Faber or Brodin have the first line spot.

Spurgeon is in the same situation Koivu was in, a high quality #2 being asked to fill the role of a #1. Koivu was a 2nd line center based on skill, but had to play on the first line, due to the Wild not having other choices.

That is a problem Stanley cup winners usually avoid. Quality teams put players in a position to succeed, and try to avoid asking guys to play roles they are not suited for. They don't rely on a 2C to play the 1C role, they let the 2C play 2C and then get a real 1C to play 1C.

[vonlonster67]

7 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

Our top 2 D players are Spurgeon and Brodin.  You don't get better by trading away your two best D.  I think the argument could be made that Spurgeon's 7.575 AAV is a bit high.  The Wild have made a living by having solid D play from our top 4 of Spurgeon, Brodin, Middleton and Dumba.  They are the reason we are goalie friendly in this league.  Losing Dumba is going to seriously hurt.  I am hoping Faber can take Dumba's place.... or Dumba is willing to take a team friendly contract.  We lose Dumba and Spurgeon and this team is in trouble.  We saw what happens when you place a subpar D-zone player like Addison on the ice.  

I appreciate Spurgy and respect his leadership, but we also cant win with his contract impact in next four years, limited size and NO IMPACT in the playoffs. Nice guys only take you so far. Our top 2 D are Brodin and Faber.

Time to move on from Dumba. Faber is going to help you forget both. Dumba finally took his game seriously with one foot out the door. Wish he would have focused more on his game on the ice instead of off it.

Lets see what we have in Iowa and Lambos could be what we need between Iowa and Minny next year. Addy to the right team for an (unknown to us fans) filler. I trust in Billy G. How many Wild fans heard of Middleton before he got here. They know what's out there so I trust in the process.

[jgodwin17]

So I was typing out a long and in-depth comment, but I was on my phone, and of course an ad reloaded and deleted it. Cool, thanks.

 

First, if you think Spurgeon is a 2nd pairing defenseman you are very wrong. Reread the article above. 5th most impactful of 147 full time defenseman in the league? In what world is that 2nd pairing?

Second if you think he is overpaid, you are also wrong. Go look at defenseman AAVs, and tell me how much better of a deal Seth Jones and Tyler Myers deals are.


I think the big issue where Spurgeon is suffering numerically in the playoffs is a huge part of why the Wild are. We typically play against teams in the playoffs that beat us because they have first (and sometimes second) lines that elevate their games and score big time goals. Aside from Ek we have no first or second line forwards that step up their game in the playoffs. Nearly all of our goals are from the Folignos, Gaudreaus, and Nyquists of the world.

When you are a team's top defender, and you play mostly defensive starts against your opponent's top lines (remember those lines that step up their game?) and when you get offensive zone starts you are either playing with the Wild's top line that has disappeared or are desperately trying to score an empty net goal, generally on a Wild team that is already flagging, things are going to look bad. Not use if power play time was figured into those stats either, but that certainly doesn't help as Spurgeon is nearly always on the PK (and rarely on the PP), and our Special Teams are garbage (doubly so in the playoffs).

Could Spurgeon improve in the playoffs? Absolutely! While he definitely has moments of brilliant Spurgeon play, there are also times I think he could step it up in the post season. But I don't think things are as doom and gloom as it seems.

As far as trading Spurgeon, I don't see it happening. Could he help a serious contender (read not us) move the needle towards a cup? No doubt. Could we get some good picks and prospects for him? Most likely. But the cap space won't do anything for us at all. 7.5 million AAV won't make this team a contender. Not even close.

I think the organization values his mentorship/leadership more than what the cap space does for making us more competitive (which it would probably make us less competitive by losing Spurgeon).  We are not going to really be able to seriously compete for the next few years with the cap penalties and our roster, so might as well let Spurgeon mentor the new guys and help build a good culture.

Where the cap hit might be a problem is a couple years from now when the 14 million comes off the books and if Spurgeon's play declines with age then that could be a problem. He hasn't really shown any signs of age impacting his game so far though. I see him probably retiring in a Wild sweater at the end of his contract though.

[jgodwin17]

12 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

I appreciate Spurgy and respect his leadership, but we also cant win with his contract impact in next four years, limited size and NO IMPACT in the playoffs. Nice guys only take you so far. Our top 2 D are Brodin and Faber.

Time to move on from Dumba. Faber is going to help you forget both. Dumba finally took his game seriously with one foot out the door. Wish he would have focused more on his game on the ice instead of off it.

Lets see what we have in Iowa and Lambos could be what we need between Iowa and Minny next year. Addy to the right team for an (unknown to us fans) filler. I trust in Billy G. How many Wild fans heard of Middleton before he got here. They know what's out there so I trust in the process.

I mean Faber looked awesome in the few games he played, but he also only played a handful of games, that's not really a meaningful sample size and definitely not enough to show he can replace your #1 and #2  RHD.

[vonlonster67]

24 minutes ago, jgodwin17 said:

I mean Faber looked awesome in the few games he played, but he also only played a handful of games, that's not really a meaningful sample size and definitely not enough to show he can replace your #1 and #2  RHD.

It's not his NHL sample size...look deeper than that. It's his history of play since you first heard his name and his ability to elevate to the next level, bringing a physical presence at 601 200 lbs. and be steady, playing the right way with limited mistakes.  It's not just ability; he is a mature young man with hockey sense and game intelligence that you can't teach. 

Spurgeon has the hockey sense and awesome leadership, but NO physical presence and disappears in the playoffs. Dumba has grit, but lacks hockey sense and is a constant turnstile of mistakes. . It's a sad day when we have to settle and consider Spurgeon our #1 and Dumba our #2 RHD...…..That's why we're WATCHING the playoffs. 

Faber's leadership at UMN, USA will follow with future games in the NHL and he will be wearing an "A" here too someday

[Protec]

I think Faber looks like he'll be a very good stay at home, shut-down defenseman. 

Spurgeon isn't a dead-weight, bum after another somewhat expected playoff loss. Would you model your d-core after undersize over-achieving guys. Maybe not, but you don't need to worry a great deal about Spurgeon becoming an anchor and shutting down the Wild's future. That's pretty extreme.

Let's focus more on ripping so-called gurus.😃

[MNCountryLife]

I'll admit.  This was a hard article for me to read.  I'm a Spurgeon fan.  The guy consistently plays extremely well against a wide variety of opposing teams top lines.  I sure would hate to see him gone.  The guy is fun to watch and compete.

[jgodwin17]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

I think Faber looks like he'll be a very good stay at home, shut-down defenseman. 

Spurgeon isn't a dead-weight, bum after another somewhat expected playoff loss. Would you model your d-core after undersize over-achieving guys. Maybe not, but you don't need to worry a great deal about Spurgeon becoming an anchor and shutting down the Wild's future. That's pretty extreme.

Let's focus more on ripping so-called gurus.😃

Speaking of gurus, can we please, for the love of god, fire our special teams coach and get someone else in that role?

[jgodwin17]

Faber does appear to have a have a bright future ahead of him, but I don’t think you can equate body of work until the NHL to much. I mean for as much as we are saying Jared Spurgeon disappears in the playoffs he lead his team a WHL championship. But that is not the NHL. There are tons of “generational talents” like Nail Yakupov who just end up being not making the cut (not to say Faber has that kind of personality, Faber seems humble and intelligent while Yakupov was a total immature asshole), and the Marco Rossi’s who might make the job and might not.

If Faber turns out to be as good as Spurgeon, which seems highly improbable, we will be extremely fortunate. Heck if he turns out to be as good as Matt Dumba (I already have a feeling he will be better defensively, though I don’t see the offensive instinct) we will be pretty lucky.

One thing is true though, Faber does seem to be one to take advantage of good coaching and mentoring, and developing him with Spurgeon is going to be hugely beneficial for him if he takes advantage of that. Spurgeon is a guy who’s physical size say he shouldn’t be able to play his position, but he is so smart at the game that he is able to be one of the top contributing defensemen in the game. If he can impart part of that hockey sense to Faber, who seems to be very willing to learn, that will really help him in the long run.

[mnfaninnc]

23 hours ago, jgodwin17 said:

I think the organization values his mentorship/leadership more than what the cap space does for making us more competitive

When Spurgeon's playing career is over, he would be a perfect example of a guy charged with developing the defense throughout the organization. 

I don't believe his effectiveness is hampered because he's going against other top lines. He does that all season long. You look at some other #1s and they are so much larger and can take on and neutralize a lot. Spurgeon is different, and I think he just gets overmatched physically. Plus, he is expected to produce at the rate of the other teams' #1. 

I appreciate his willingness to battle. I appreciate his well rounded game. 5'9" 167 lb. defenders just tend to get worn down quicker as a series goes on. Your Ekblads, Hedmans, Slavins, Heiskanens, and Pietrangelos are able to absorb much more punishment. The eye test for me says that Spurgeon simply isn't. Middleton is a good partner for him, but in the playoffs, throwing it into the LWs corner and going to work is a great formula against the current Wild D. You wear down the whole right side which is tiny comparatively. Just a normal middleweight winger has 20+ lbs. on him. He only has to connect a couple of times, and grind on him to wear him out.

[mnfaninnc]

23 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

It's not his NHL sample size...look deeper than that. It's his history of play since you first heard his name and his ability to elevate to the next level, bringing a physical presence at 601 200 lbs. and be steady, playing the right way with limited mistakes.  It's not just ability; he is a mature young man with hockey sense and game intelligence that you can't teach. 

This is so true.....on the defensive side. Trouble is, your #1D also has to add the offensive punch, and that just isn't there yet for Faber. Even in the games we saw, where he was very good, he had opportunities to shoot the gaps and carry pucks into the zone. He chose the conservative route, held up and dumped the puck into the zone.

A #1D has to take that puck in and do something with it to set up his forwards. The NHL, more today, needs that 4th guy stepping up and taking it in, and he needs to be fast enough to get out of there and back on defense. Perhaps it was Faber's not wanting to make a mistake, but he needs to learn when he can take it in. 

Watching him play with the Gophers just in the NCAA tournament, there was a similar trait, get to the blue line and dump it in. So, this is not new for the player. I would suggest a mindset change needs to happen, and drills to see the open ice and take it should be worked on all summer long (not to mention developing a slap shot). He's already at 200 lbs., but you could tell he needed to add about 10 lbs. of upper body strength. 

If you pair Faber with Brodin (the other obvious elevation to the #1 pairing), you'd have, essentially, 2 guys with the same game. They'd probably be a good shut down pair, but provide little offense (but good stretch passes). For me, I think Brodin needs a more dynamic defensive partner who isn't allergic to his own end, and Faber needs something similar (maybe Lambos?)

 

[mnfaninnc]

18 hours ago, Protec said:

Spurgeon isn't a dead-weight, bum after another somewhat expected playoff loss. Would you model your d-core after undersize over-achieving guys. Maybe not, but you don't need to worry a great deal about Spurgeon becoming an anchor and shutting down the Wild's future. That's pretty extreme.

I think the solution here is getting a bit beefier on the right side. Faber helps, but we need a larger right side D to fill out the pairings. It would be nice if Goligoski called it a career and freed up the $2m, I think it was fairly obvious that time had taken its toll on him and he was no longer a producing defender.

Protec has suggested Soucy. I loved Soucy's game here. Actually, for a year, Soucy and Faber probably make good 3rd pairing partners. So, who do you stick with Brodin?  We have Addison, and he might be able to work if he takes a defensive zone benadryl. I think we could find a different player if Addison commits to the gym this summer and adds 10-15 lbs. of strength, 5 lower body, 10 upper body. It wasn't just his spotty defensive play, it was the inability to even get in the way sometimes and his propensity for getting eliminated from plays from hits behind the play. 

I can always hope for this, but, this should have been a priority going into last season. If Addison doesn't look larger when he comes in to sign his qualifying offer, I've got to say cut bait and fill with someone else. He can be dynamic offensively, but he needs to grow up and shore up the gaping holes in his game!

[Pewterschmidt]

As much as I like this community, the ads on the mobile experience make the blog un-useable for me.  If the overlords aren’t planning to change the ads I’m going to begin looking for another place to shop for my Wild fix.   What are some of your other favorite wild communities?

[mnfaninnc]

4 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

As much as I like this community, the ads on the mobile experience make the blog un-useable for me.  If the overlords aren’t planning to change the ads I’m going to begin looking for another place to shop for my Wild fix.   What are some of your other favorite wild communities?

Raz has one on Discord. I haven't tried to use it on my phone, but it had no ads on my computer that has adblock. 

[Protec]

5 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

As much as I like this community, the ads on the mobile experience make the blog un-useable for me.  If the overlords aren’t planning to change the ads I’m going to begin looking for another place to shop for my Wild fix.   What are some of your other favorite wild communities?

What am I gonna do without the Hep C medicine ads and Sex in the City links?

I completely agree and try to avoid using the phone. I think it's because new ads load that it jacks up the comments and attempts to keep fitting the various ads.

I hope they fix it. I believe it's contributing to less activity but that's purely from observation.

[mnfaninnc]

23 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

As much as I like this community, the ads on the mobile experience make the blog un-useable for me.  If the overlords aren’t planning to change the ads I’m going to begin looking for another place to shop for my Wild fix.   What are some of your other favorite wild communities?

This does seem like a glitch. I wonder if it is the same for Samsung and iphone? I'm still waiting for them to let us turn comments green!