Article: The Wild May Have To Downsize Their Grit

[Luke Sims]

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[mnfaninnc]

I like Reaves as a personality and force in the lineup. Unfortunately, father time has caught up with him. Reaves occasionally lays a big hit, and that gets the crowd going. However, more and more as the season wore on, Reaves could not catch his target. His speed has diminished to the point that his game is no longer effective. 

But, let's take a look at the grit. Like Luke, Duhaime is a must sign and it shouldn't even be much. I could see 3 X $1.2m ($1m, 1.2m, 1.4m). He hasn't scored 10 goals yet in a season, so this is not out of reach for a contract, and it gives Duhaime some job security. He should be trying out for 3rd line wing paired with Foligno. 

Duhaime, Dewar, Shaw, Foligno, Middleton are all capable fighters. Coming up, I'd probably expect Hunt and O'Rourke to be similar, but they're a year away. I'd also expect the same from Milne when he is ready. That's a lot of guys who can chuck the fists. And, you need those guys or your team gets run over. That will require a more physical game from Mids, who I thought was rather docile this past season.

There are 2 ways to get a crowd into a game: Score, big hit. You're killing yourself if you don't have both things in your toolbox. I think we've got plenty of guys who can protect teammates without Reaves. I know Reaves wants term on his deal, but, really, with an over 35 deal and his speed diminishing, you'd be a little stupid to give more than a year by year deal. What is he worth? I'd say right around $1m/yr. for this team. Who's place is he holding? Probably Milne's.

Will Mikey Milne make it? Well, there's another thought, what if Beckman, Rossi, Walker make it and move up the lineup, someone will have to move down, and that someone would also take Reaves' spot. He may be nice in the locker room to have, but let's face it, the roster slot may be more valuable than Reaves is worth. 

[Dean]

Duhaime didn’t seem like the same player after he got knocked out. He didn’t seem to have that grit in the playoffs. I wonder if that fight set him back . Everyone’s got a plan till they get punched in the face. 
    Foligno made a fool of himself in playoffs. Not worth the contract or imo wearing an A . He’s a middle weight that other teams don’t seem to worry about .

Reaves is a heavy weight that others worry about . Yes he’s slow but the other team needs to think twice before they run Kaprizov. Look how freaked out the jets coach was when Lowry had to answer bell with Reaves.  They don’t worry about  duhaime, Foligno or  Middleton . Reaves they fear. He’s also probably saved Kaprizov from an injury by being on team.  Reaves also gets to the front of the net unlike most of the wild . Especially there smaller forwards. . 
    I guess it really doesn’t matter who they keep Or trade. They won’t be good because of money and buyouts. We don’t have a team that’s anywhere close to going deep in playoffs. No #1 center , no #1 defense . An are defense is undersized . 
    Thinking about the Billy g era so far . It’s brought us Dean Evason and freddy g for 5-8 years . Embarrassing playoff exits and more pain from the buyouts . By the time we have money the spurgeon contract will be an albatross. So I really think we are 5-7 years away from maybe having a good team. 
   The one thing the wild can fix now is the effort they play with. Quitting can’t be ok! No excuse about buyouts. It has anything to do with giving up! 

[Protec]

^^^

Guerin's plan to change culture and become certain of costs was very much dependent on the draft producing NHL level players while an on the fly reboot could have time to make smart moves. 

The contracts given and value moves made by Guerin haven't been bad IMO but the pieces haven't come together, primarily on the draft side. Zero NHL players coming in after three drafts and the best overall pick being the worst of all the top 20-25 players selected is now a critical factor. 

You pretty much have to trade Gus cause he's the most valuable asset you have and you selected your franchise goalie in Wallstedt. Still no center depth beyond Freddy and Ek in the top six with no help in sight and no budget. I didn't think the Guerin plan was too bad but Brackett isn't a guru. I think you have to make a trade with Gus or Fleury to have half a chance of improving the center position or the Wild's contract with Spurgeon and Kaprizov will become a problem too soon. Like by the end of next season when the future will become more clear and the Wild's chances either improve or diminish. Boldy is another big part. He's had some flashes but consistency and playoffs are big areas he needs to be better. 

[Will D. Ness]

4 hours ago, Protec said:

You pretty much have to trade Gus cause he's the most valuable asset you have and you selected your franchise goalie in Wallstedt. 

Gus is definitely the key to moving up.  You don't touch Boldy IMO. 

[Protec]

Steel taking a step forward and Rossi making it could be huge for the Wild. I just don't think that is a good thing to count on if you're Bill Guerin. It could happen and GMBG doesn't have to move on from those guys but are they going to make big impacts this season? Generally, I think the expectation is fairly low for both guys.

A pleasant surprise is setup just as much as a frustrating reality that Guerin is empty on center prospects who can boost the Wild club now.

[vonlonster67]

2 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

Gus is definitely the key to moving up.  You don't touch Boldy IMO. 

Trading Gus is not going the change this team even if it is for a legitimate center that still is not going to get us to the "2nd round". The playoffs this season have proved one thing....you need goaltending. Gus is a very valuable find and Wallsted is not a guarantee and Gus is a known, SIGN HIM and let's not get too impatient. I would hate to lose him for the sake of a fit now with all the talent coming in 24-25. I would rather sacrifice next year and get a pick in the mid round and let the youth take their place here this year 23-24. We're not going to be able to trade for a legit #1 C and a #1 D which is what we need. We need to shed Spurgeon, Foligno, Fleury, Goligoski, Merrill, and find a way to pry Zuccarello away from KK once Khusnutdinov and Yurov get here. I truly believe this is the path we need to go. 

[Protec]

Quote

We're not going to be able to trade for a legit #1 C and a #1 D which is what we need.

I don't think the Wild's defense is in dire need of a designated 1D type guy for the start of next season.

The Wild have needed a center since before Koivu fizzled. Now that the Wild have an asset with Gustavvsson who is the best goalie from the 2016 draft coming off a really nice season. On the lead-up to a draft flush with centers in the top ten where teams sitting in the 5-6 positions need good goaltending, it's gotta be a consideration.

Jarry is expiring in Pittsburgh. Fleury has nearly identical numbers and is the exact same AAV but Jarry is expiring. Perhaps if Fleury went back to PA, there would be good reason to sign Gus and go with elite Swede goaltending in MN. That would at least make the money side of things work but it does nothing to improve the forward group or center depth.

I just look at GMBG's time here and the goals to right the ship and get on a better trajectory. That's been happening, but the 2020 draft was a setback and the timing hasn't been lucky related to getting a center from free agency or otherwise although the Wild have been positioning for that type of acquisition.

If the Wild have pretty much the same group, why would they fall off and suck bad enough to get a top pick in the 2024 draft? I don't see that happening and why would that be so great as the Wild have already been filling up on prospects? It could be good if they moved Fleury back to Pittsburgh and signed Gus to solidify their net position and play cheap, young players at the expense of another playoff birth but players don't tank.

I think it's a good debate whether to trade or sign Gustafvsson. Both options have good upside but carry a hindsight-factor element that could be costly when looking back.

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, Protec said:

I think it's a good debate whether to trade or sign Gustafvsson. Both options have good upside but carry a hindsight-factor element that could be costly when looking back.

Count me in on the resigning of Gustavsson. Main reason: longterm, we can run with both The Wall and Goose2 in the net. They're essentially the same type of goaltender. That is dependable in the very place we need it. While Goose2 had 1 good season, at 39 games, I don't think anyone gives up a top draft pick for him, and getting a 2nd really doesn't help us.

With both 'tenders, we'd leverage ourselves against injury, and we would be able to play the hot hand. Moving forward, we'd probably still have some inexpensive goaltending for the next 2-3 seasons. 

I think there would be a benefit of keeping The Wall in Iowa for another season, making him the clear #1 goalie. I also think there is value in having Fleury work with both of them. For some reason, Fleury is very good at helping his younger teammates. Fleury has probably set himself up to be a goaltending guru in an organization after he hangs it up. 

If you've got goaltending depth in an organization, you're ahead of the game. I do believe that Kaprizov should attract a #1C to come play with him, or maybe even a #2C who thinks he can elevate to #1 and benefit from the dynamic talent Kaprizov offers. But, we're probably 2 years away from that becoming a reality.

[mnfaninnc]

Does the grit need to be downsized....or does it need to be repositioned. Watching the Dallas-Vegas game yesterday on free tv ABC got me to thinking as it looked like the Vegas players were abusing the Dallas players.

Specifically, I thought taking a look at each teams defense that is left might be a good idea. Some have accused me of being to obsessed with size, but I think it may be interesting to look at here.

Carolina:

1. Slavin       6'3"   207
2. Burns       6'5"   230
3. Skjei         6'3"   210
4. Pesce      6'3"    206
5. Chatfield 6'1"    188
6. Ghost       5'11" 180

Carolina's top 4 defenders don't always throw big hits, but their reach is outstanding which helps them with their gaps.

Florida:

1. Ekblad        6'4"   215
2. Montour     6'0"   189
3. Forsling      6'0"   186
4. Mahura       6'0"   190
5. Gudas         6'0"   205
6. M. Staal      6'4"   209

Florida's D is the smallest left of the last 4 teams remaining. I don't know how they're doing it, perhaps BoB is bailing them out? 

Vegas:

1. Pietrangelo    6'3"    210
2. Martinez         6'1"   209
3. Theodore        6'2"   195
4. McNabb          6'4"   213
5. Whitecloud     6'2"   209
6. Hague             6'6"   221

These guys have reach and were hitting. Many Dallas forwards were toppled and left as carnage behind the play.

Dallas:

1. Heiskanen     6'1"    190 (I saw him at 200+ somewhere else)
2. Lindell            6'3"    215
3. Suter              6'2"    206
4. Miller              6'1"    193
5. Hakanpaa     6'5"     218
6. Harley            6'3"     188
7. Hanley           5'11"   190

Dallas' guys are a little smaller, but heavy enough not to get pushed around.

It is clear that Shooter's got a particular defenseman in mind when he drafts them.  He likes a guy who's a puck mover and can skate joining the rush.  These guys tend to be a little smaller and he'd like a full corps of them. Let's look at the Wild:

1. Spurgeon     5'9"    167   (plays bigger than listed)
2. Brodin           6'1"    194
3. Middleton     6'3"    210
4. Dumba          6'0"    180
5. Merrill            6'3"    195
6. Addison         5'10"  178
7. Faber             6'0"     190
8. Goligoski       5'11"  185
9. Masters         6'1"    175
10. Lambos         6'1"    197
11. Spacek          6'0"     174
12. O'Rourke       6'0"     178  (I think he's actually 6'2" now)
13. Hunt              6'0"     198

This is what we have and what's coming. Surely the kids will end up weighing more as they fill out, but look at the heights, they are severely lacking in reach. Look at the weight of most of the starters currently, they are too light and will get pushed around.

Compare this with the eye test in the last 3 playoff series we've played. Our PK has let us down, why, undersized defenders. And, if these guys aren't contributing on the offensive end, it's not working. In the playoffs, we got very little production from our back end. 

Couple this with weak down the middle in center depth and we are just asking for early exits. Both of these areas need to be shored up. Middleton cannot be our only large defender, we need more of them. So, that means we have 2 serious roster needs: Larger defenders, real centers not guys who can play center. 

[Protec]

Solid observation. 
 

Addison should really be traded. One less RFA to sign. He has value and has shown some really good NHL offense. Change of scenery deal. Should be worth a 2nd rounder by himself. 
 

Start getting bigger on defense. Soucy was quite good in MN. He would be a perfect fit or upgrade if the Wild could afford it.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Protec

[Willy the poor boy]

8 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Watching the Dallas-Vegas game yesterday on free tv ABC got me to thinking as it looked like the Vegas players were abusing the Dallas players.

 

I haven't seen hardly any playoff hockey since the Wild exited, but this statement got me wondering and maybe some of you know the answer. Are the games being called as one sided as the Wild series? 

I would think the roles have reversed for Big D and they are now being scrutinized a little more harshly then Vegas would be. You would hope they would just call the games fairly, but it does seem they always favor one team over the other. 

[jessail]

Not sure what thread this belongs. But should the Wild trade the Thrill? 
 

I don’t want to. But I keep reading articles about with the cap crunch etc that we are 3-4 years from contending.

Would the Wild be better off trading a star in his prime for a load of picks and hopefully end up with the next Bedard and a other key pieces with loads of money to spend in a few years? Seems like we are always in the middle. 

what could the Wild get? I wonder. Smarter minds than me on this site may have a sense.
 

[Protec]

Quote

Fleury has probably set himself up to be a goaltending guru in an organization after he hangs it up.

Usually when somebody says “guru” I crawfish. 😁

 

Quote

 

Not sure what thread this belongs. But should the Wild trade the Thrill? 

I think this would be hard to look back on. Too high-risk, high-reward for me. It is pretty safe to expect #97 to keep rolling. Historically, I don’t really like the track record of similar scenarios.

 

This popped into my head. Pass this along to GM Bill Guerin. Nosek the center, gritty, two-way guy with some turnover creation skills, get to the net talent, and be in on the forecheck guy is a UFA. Affordable guy for the Wild, probably a 3C. I don’t know what he was in Boston but he has playoff experience. Get him and put him with Boldy and Beckman. That could be a great combination of talents to generate scoring. Playmaker, shooter, and grit-injector. Plus you could call it the BNB line. Experience plus rookie combo insulates Beckman while he becomes 20 goal scorer in his first full season. Nosek isn’t a little guy and he plays a NA style game despite being Euro guy so that also proves I’m not prejudiced against Europeans. 😀

 

 

 

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

Usually when somebody says “guru” I crawfish. 😁

 

I think this would be hard to look back on. Too high-risk, high-reward for me. It is pretty safe to expect #97 to keep rolling. Historically, I don’t really like the track record of similar scenarios.

 

This popped into my head. Pass this along to GM Bill Guerin. Nosek the center, gritty, two-way guy with some turnover creation skills, get to the net talent, and be in on the forecheck guy is a UFA. Affordable guy for the Wild, probably a 3C. I don’t know what he was in Boston but he has playoff experience. Get him and put him with Boldy and Beckman. That could be a great combination of talents to generate scoring. Playmaker, shooter, and grit-injector. Plus you could call it the BNB line. Experience plus rookie combo insulates Beckman while he becomes 20 goal scorer in his first full season. Nosek isn’t a little guy and he plays a NA style game despite being Euro guy so that also proves I’m not prejudiced against Europeans. 😀

 

 

 

Bo Nos Adam

[mnfaninnc]

21 hours ago, Protec said:

Start getting bigger on defense. Soucy was quite good in MN. He would be a perfect fit or upgrade if the Wild could afford it.

I really liked the 3rd pairing of Soucy-Cole a few seasons back. They were heavy and great on the PK. Our PK has suffered since they left.

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, jessail said:

Not sure what thread this belongs. But should the Wild trade the Thrill? 
 

I don’t want to. But I keep reading articles about with the cap crunch etc that we are 3-4 years from contending.

Would the Wild be better off trading a star in his prime for a load of picks and hopefully end up with the next Bedard and a other key pieces with loads of money to spend in a few years?

If this were a consideration, the Wild cannot settle for draft picks. Future draft picks have not yet been determined, and if Kaprizov was headed to a team, even a bad team, he immediately makes them better, and I doubt they finish in the bottom 10 of the league. 

To even consider this, the Wild would need to fill what they don't have. 

1. a #1C, bonafide!
2. a #1 RHS D with size.

We don't appear to have either of these in our system. Now let's address what you've read: 3-4 years away from challenging for a conference title, I believe, is a little long. Next season will be '23-24, and from most perspectives it looks like '25-26 is the opening of that window. We still need to get better down the middle, and I think our defensive depth can get us through. 

I think a better plan would be focusing on drafting a potential top 6 C, and to do that from where we're drafting it will take multiple shots at it. Not to worry, washed out C prospects can still make solid wings. In this upcoming draft, there are 3 targets, that I'm hoping we can make deals to get all 3:

1. Oliver Moore
2. Nate Danielson
3. Calem Ritchie

Continuing to read about prospects around where we draft in other positions, there seems to be quite a bit of uncertainty in their games. On sportsnet's rankings, Moore is at 13, Danielson 15 and Ritchie late 20s. 

With Kaprizov in the lineup, and maybe even with Boldy as his wingman, I think a less dynamic offensive center could be the solution. It could even be Ek. But someone in the Kopizar-Bergeron style could be the best center for that pairing. 

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

Usually when somebody says “guru” I crawfish. 😁

Couldn't think of a better word for it. Fleury would be more than a coach, it would be like an organization's head of goaltending, working with all the goalies in the system. 

I'm not even sure where goalie coaches are positioned during games, I'm pretty sure they're not behind the bench. Do they watch from the tunnel? Are they back in the locker room? Do they talk to the goalies in between periods?

I've advocated for a long time that GMBG should compartmentalize the development of the prospects, working with them on basic concepts within the team structure. Of course, you'd need to be a decent teacher, but in house, we have a pretty good alumni that could be doing that.

1. Modano/Koivu could teach forward concepts for both offense and defense
2. My suggestion here would be Phil Housley, and the guys we've drafted would be perfect for him to mold
3. Backstrom could be our goalie developer.

Let's just say I'm not exactly happy with the development under Bombadir/Hendricks/McCloud. Too much of the same type of player.

[Up North Guy]

39 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

If this were a consideration, the Wild cannot settle for draft picks. Future draft picks have not yet been determined, and if Kaprizov was headed to a team, even a bad team, he immediately makes them better, and I doubt they finish in the bottom 10 of the league. 

To even consider this, the Wild would need to fill what they don't have. 

1. a #1C, bonafide!
2. a #1 RHS D with size.

We don't appear to have either of these in our system. Now let's address what you've read: 3-4 years away from challenging for a conference title, I believe, is a little long. Next season will be '23-24, and from most perspectives it looks like '25-26 is the opening of that window. We still need to get better down the middle, and I think our defensive depth can get us through. 

I think a better plan would be focusing on drafting a potential top 6 C, and to do that from where we're drafting it will take multiple shots at it. Not to worry, washed out C prospects can still make solid wings. In this upcoming draft, there are 3 targets, that I'm hoping we can make deals to get all 3:

1. Oliver Moore
2. Nate Danielson
3. Calem Ritchie

Continuing to read about prospects around where we draft in other positions, there seems to be quite a bit of uncertainty in their games. On sportsnet's rankings, Moore is at 13, Danielson 15 and Ritchie late 20s. 

With Kaprizov in the lineup, and maybe even with Boldy as his wingman, I think a less dynamic offensive center could be the solution. It could even be Ek. But someone in the Kopizar-Bergeron style could be the best center for that pairing. 

Although i really like Moore's game (and is one of us) I believe he is smaller than Rossi. I read that he is 5'8" and 180lbs. He is still young but I doubt he grows into the BIG #1C that the team needs. I sure do look forward to seeing what he does with the Gophers this year. I believe he will be playing wing with Snuggs and Cooley.

[mnfaninnc]

3 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

Although i really like Moore's game (and is one of us) I believe he is smaller than Rossi. I read that he is 5'8" and 180lbs.

Hockey Writers and Elite Prospects both have him at 5'11" 176, Dobber has him at 5'11" 188.

[Up North Guy]

4 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Hockey Writers and Elite Prospects both have him at 5'11" 176, Dobber has him at 5'11" 188.

Thanks. I thought he looked bigger than they listed. So now Ireally like what I have heard about him. But it still doesn't sound like he will be playing center. We need good wingers too.

[Protec]

Side note my Old Man saw Shaw at the orthopedic place doing what he needs to do? I asked but my Dad said he didn’t see a bionic knee.

The more I think about it, the Wild should keep up with the build and tweaks to improve in small steps. I like the ladder analogy with rungs. You can’t skip over a lot of them.

When the Wild lose another first round series the initial reaction is to demand changes and reiterate failures. The organization has to learn too and I personally haven’t seen any egregious blunders. The draft hasn’t convinced me of guruism but overall the Wild’s trajectory has only now plateaued. It’s not smart to all of the sudden change your game plan cause you had a setback. This is what we should keep in mind and see who’s there after training camp. The Wild were better this season than many thought they would be. Perhaps the Wild can fill some holes and promote some prospects and still get into the playoffs. The NHL this season has been interesting because you saw powerhouse Boston go down early. Max-contracts Toronto fizzle. Late climber Florida is on the verge of playing for the Cup with Tkachuk and Lundell on their roster happy to have dodged Brackett selection. 
 

mnfaninnc - I liked your comparison of the overall defense groups of top teams. Those are the types of formulas from each Cup Final or late rounds to examine and there’s some other themes we’ve already pointed out. The Wild have less excuse than ever this season to keep sucking at face offs, and special teams. Personnel is a large part of those areas so Nosek who has had a 60% faceoff rate in the past and is coming off 59% with Boston, what the heck are we wondering about Steel for? Just sayin, what if the Wild could get Nosek for like 3M/3year or 2.5/4years? That’s checking a lot of boxes for a guy I’ve said the Wild should target before. 6’3” 200 center who wins draws around 2-3M and went to the Finals with VGK. Yes, please...

[Backwoodsbob]

20 hours ago, Protec said:

Personnel is a large part of those areas so Nosek who has had a 60% faceoff rate in the past and is coming off 59% with Boston, what the heck are we wondering about Steel for? Just sayin, what if the Wild could get Nosek for like 3M/3year or 2.5/4years? That’s checking a lot of boxes for a guy I’ve said the Wild should target before. 6’3” 200 center who wins draws around 2-3M and went to the Finals with VGK. Yes, please...

Definitely a position the needs a ton of work. Once again as many have stated "We need to improve down the middle" This would be a good step.

It's amazing how a play differs when you can have possession of the puck after face offs, especially during the PP. That's how Dallas killed the Wild during the series. How many PP goals after winning the face off?

[mnfaninnc]

21 hours ago, Protec said:

Just sayin, what if the Wild could get Nosek for like 3M/3year or 2.5/4years? That’s checking a lot of boxes for a guy I’ve said the Wild should target before. 6’3” 200 center who wins draws around 2-3M and went to the Finals with VGK.

Tomas Nosek is a big center. Looking at his game logs, he was generally a <15 minute player on the ice. He does win draws. He doesn't gain a lot of points (think Duhaime level). So, from the looks of his stats, he seems like a 4th line center, maybe more in the Sturm category. His last contract was 2 X $1.75m. He's 30. I'd say 3 X $3m is likely an overpayment and probably gets him. But, where do you play him?

Based upon the stats, he looks like a PKer, and draw specialist. Can he stand in front of the net and tip? His stats would suggest he whiffs a lot, but you generally do not get assists for nice screens. 

I could get behind a plan to move Dewar up a line and slot the big C on the 4th line. I'm not sure how well he skates, so we'd probably need competent skating wingers on his sides (which likely knocks out Reaves). I don't watch Boston games, so I have no eye test on the guy. I don't even remember him the 2 games against the Wild. 

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Backwoodsbob said:

It's amazing how a play differs when you can have possession of the puck after face offs, especially during the PP. That's how Dallas killed the Wild during the series. How many PP goals after winning the face off?

I would argue this is true on clean faceoffs. However, while other teams seem to have a really good plan once they get possession, it seems like more times than not if the Wild battle for possession, they end up turning it over by the 2nd pass. To be fair, they've also created turnovers too, but it doesn't seem like it's at the same rate. Does that mean we have less skilled players on the ice? Likely, yes.

Or, it could mean that we don't really expect to win faceoffs and aren't in position to take advantage of a battle win? Or, it could be something the coaching staff really doesn't work much on? I think it's more of the skilled thing, mainly because our top line does seem to make it work.