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  • William Nylander's New Contract Is A Preview Of Kirill Kaprizov's Next Payday


    Image courtesy of Brace Hemmelgam-USA Today Sports
    Tony Abbott

    William Nylander picked a great time to cash in. After two consecutive 80-point seasons, including last year's 40-goal, 87-point campaign, the Toronto Maple Leafs star winger was a sure thing to earn $10 million-plus in average annual value (AAV). Waiting 37 games to sign proved even more lucrative. Nylander was well on his way to a 40-goal, 100-point season and got to cash in as the game's fifth-highest cap hit next year with an eight-year, $92 million contract.

    He's technically not the league's highest-paid winger. Artemi Panarin edges out Nylander's $11.5 million cap hit by $142,857 annually. Still, Panarin hit the unrestricted free-agent market to get that deal from the New York Rangers. Nylander was negotiating with one team, even with the leverage to test those UFA waters in 45 games.

    If you're wondering what Kirill Kaprizov is thinking about this, we only need Google Translate. Type "price of the brick going up" and read what comes out on the Russian side. That's probably gonna give you an idea.

    We've seen teams hand out mega contracts over the last 18 months. Nathan MacKinnon got an eight-year deal worth $12.6 million per season. Auston Matthews got a four-year contract that earns him $13.25 million per season and lets him hit free agency again entering his age-31 season. They're both superstars and perennial MVP candidates, but they weren't the best one-to-one comparisons with Kaprizov.

    For one, they're centers, and it's safe to call them a half-step above even a healthy Kaprizov in value. Those guys are regular Hart Trophy finalists. Kaprizov could conceivably snag a Hart Trophy, but that would have to come in some sort of career year.

    Nylander, though? That's a different story. Not only are they both wingers and skilled, point-amassing offensive stars, but Kaprizov is also a half-step up from Nylander. Maybe even a full step. It's Tale of the Tape time.

    Here is how they stack up over the last two-and-a-half seasons:

    image.png

    Where does Nylander have the advantage? You could probably say durability. He's played 18 more games (and counting) than Kaprizov over that span. Well, that and his locks. Feathered and lethal. But even playing 18 fewer games, Kaprizov equals or betters Nylander's counting stats.

    None of this is a knock on Nylander, either. If he's 80-90% the player Kaprizov is, that's a fantastic player. Make no mistake, though, if Nylander is an $11.5 million player, Kaprizov's driving the price further up. 

    If Nylander isn't Kaprizov's equal, then who is? Evolving-Hockey has a Skater Similarity tool that allows us to look at his first three seasons in the league. Let's take a quick look at the top 10 players similar to Kaprizov at his age:

    image.png

    Interestingly, David Pastrnak is No. 1 on this list. The Boston Bruins winger is enjoying a contract with an $11.25 million cap hit. Looking just one spot down the list, we see... David Pastrnak again, that's odd. Let's check out spot No. 3 and... OK, OK, fine, Kaprizov is basically David Pastrnak. We get it.

    Of course, you might also notice other big-money players on this list. Mikko Rantanen ($9.25 million AAV) and Nikita Kucherov ($9.5 million AAV) stand out in particular. But not only did they sign their deals in the 2010s, it's simply impossible to ignore that combination of similarity and the massive payday Pastrnak got when thinking about Kaprizov's prospects for an extension.

    $11.25 million makes Pastrnak (currently) the seventh-highest-paid player in the league next year. But what's funny is that before the ink dried on the page, pundits called that cap hit a massive win... for the Boston Bruins. A discount, even! The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn pegged his value at $14.0 million against the salary cap.

    If we believe that Nylander is about 80 to 90% of the player Kaprizov is, that makes sense, too. If we slap 10, then 20% onto Nylander's $11.5 million AAV, we get a contract somewhere between $12.65 and $13.8 million. 

    But is Kaprizov going to look to get that from Minnesota? It's hard to say he won't try. Remember, in his first contract negotiation with Bill Guerin, Kaprizov not only secured a $9 million cap hit but also secured the right to hit free agency in five years rather than eight. It was a Matthews-type deal.

    It's also helpful to remember just how unprecedented Kaprizov's contract was. Kaprizov had only played 55 games and landed a deal where he took up 11.04% of the salary cap space. Of his most comparable contracts, no player who got 10% or more of the salary cap had anywhere in that ballpark. Vladimir Tarasenko comes the closest, but even his 179 games at the time of his 2015 contract were more than three times the experience Kaprizov had.

    Pairing this with the knowledge that the Wild either should be or are desperate to keep their only bona fide superstar in franchise history and $13 to 14 million on Kaprizov's next contract looks less absurd by the day. Big Willie Style is paving the way for Kaprizov to break the bank like we've never seen before from a winger. 

    Цена на кирпич растет.

    All stats via Evolving-Hockey; Contract data via Cap Friendly.

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    Anything $12m or above is the, "You're our best player in 20 years...Please, please, PLEASE, groveling on the floor." kinda deal.  The franchise hinges on him resigning or god forbid getting a haul for a trade.

    Think of it less a hometown deal, and I "I am doing the Wild a favor deal," by staying.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    6 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    If I'm not mistaken I think Mason Shaw is getting closer to his season debut for Iowa too! Not this weekend, but not too far off either.

    I'm intrigued on the Cap situation and if/how they could fit in his contract. I want to say it's accrued daily, but with all of the injuries and callups, I'm assuming figuring that all out has to be a nightmare. Not sure if they have to trade someone or wait till closer to the trade deadline to sign him.

    Or with how the season is going, I'd imagine he could/would potentially sign with another team once he's back up to speed.

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    12 hours ago, WheelSnipeCelly said:

    If I'm not mistaken I think Mason Shaw is getting closer to his season debut for Iowa too! Not this weekend, but not too far off either.

    Shaw is on an A contract only for this season. I'm not sure how you bring that up to the N, but I would also suspect it's going to take him quite a few games to get back. Remember, the mind is the last thing to heal.

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    Kaprizov's next contract will be north of $11.5m. The main reason is timing. He is a great comparable for Pasta, and what I think they will argue is Pasta's % of cap. Since the cap is rising, that will be the raise. 

    Could the Wild argue cap ceiling-$1.75m (buyout money)? I think that's about as good as it gets. My hope is that Yurov, Dino and maybe 6'7" defender guy are all here by that time, and Kaprizov loves the team!

    In case anyone was wondering, and I'd be wondering, Rantanen goes 1st, his deal is over in '24-25. Kucherov goes 3rd, his deal is over in '26-27 where he'll be 33. 

    My conclusion is that Rantanen's deal will be the chief comparable, with Pasta 2nd and Nylander 3rd. Rantanen's deal will fully reflect NHL Cap Inflation.

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    Well, I'll be blocked from tonight's game since it's on TNT. Good luck to the guys, though I'm less than optimistic about the outcome. 

    If The Wall is starting, hopefully we'll get some good insight here from you guys!

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    21 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

     The franchise hinges on him resigning or god forbid getting a haul for a trade.

    Unfortunately I don't think they'll get as much as they should if Kirill decides he doesn't want to stick around long-term. He's got that pesky NMC for the last 2 years of his deal, so he will basically get to pick who he goes to. 

    Edited by B1GKappa97
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    9 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    So what you're saying is... 

    the Parise/Suter dead-caps are basically going right to Kirill Kaprizov once they come off the books. 

    Not exactly, we're already paying him $9m/, so it's just an extra $3.xxm.

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    11 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    He's got that pesky NMC for the last 2 years of his deal, so he will basically get to pick who he goes to. 

    True, but what if Guerin has him give him 5 teams? It they're competing, perhaps we get more than the Fiala deal? Might be a sign and trade deal.

    But, why do people assume he wants to leave? He likes being under the radar as far as media goes, and if he's got a few countrymen on the team, why not?

    Edited by mnfaninnc
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    Not to throw shade, but don't forget that he had a really slow start and his former coach even commented on the injury on his way out the door. They don't say anything publicly about what it is, but I think we all assume back injury from playoffs. And, Dillon just took an axe to his back again. I hope it's not chronic for 97 now, but we have to see which 97 we see after the all-star break. Make no mistake, he's still our best, but may not be the guy we saw the past couple of years.

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    5 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Shaw is on an A contract only for this season. I'm not sure how you bring that up to the N, but I would also suspect it's going to take him quite a few games to get back. Remember, the mind is the last thing to heal.

    I am no expert - but I think AHL players on an AHL contract (not a 2-way contract) have to sign a standard player contract. 

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    2 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    So what you're saying is... 

    the Parise/Suter dead-caps are basically going right to Kirill Kaprizov once they come off the books. 

    If the cap doesn't increase?

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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    True, but what if Guerin has him give him 5 teams? It they're competing, perhaps we get more than the Fiala deal? Might be a sign and trade deal.

    But, why do people assume he wants to leave? He likes being under the radar as far as media goes, and if he's got a few countrymen on the team, why not?

    Doesn't matter. If Kaprizov says "I'm only going to waive my clause if I get traded to the Rangers" then Billy can only deal with the Rangers. Just like what happened between MAF and Chicago with his NMC. 

    I hope he doesn't but this is MN. We never get to have nice things for long 😞

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    16 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

    If the cap doesn't increase?

    I'm sure it'll increase by then. I'm sure Kaprizov will also want a deal that pays him more than Nylander at that point too. 

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    Kaprizov is a franchise caliber player, but he is also on the smaller side, making him more susceptible to injury. The pasta man is an even 6 feet, so he has a couple inches on Kaprizov. In addition to that, the Bruins protect the pasta man from injury. 

    The salarycap will be going up over the next couple years, but I worry about Kaprizovs durability. If goons like Stanley and Dillon can get away with dirty plays, Kaprizov could be hobbled every year. This is why we need a big body player on the Kaprizov line to help defend Kaprizov from the goons.

    Lastly, we have to factor in age related decline. I don't think we need a repeat of the Suter and Parise deals. I would offer Kaprizov a contract that runs until he hits 35, and I would offer him $14 million a year or so. This all depends on him being healthy enough to warrant such a deal.

    Many people seem to like the combo of Kaprizov and Rossi, so get a big body winger (with skill) to complement them.

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    5 minutes ago, Quebec1648 said:

    Many people seem to like the combo of Kaprizov and Rossi, so get a big body winger (with skill) to complement them.

    Boldy's got a big body, but he doesn't really play like it. Ek is physical enough. That Lindstrom guys sounds like the winner, though, a Tkachukian center!

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    6 hours ago, WIWild said:

    I hope it's not chronic for 97 now, but we have to see which 97 we see after the all-star break. Make no mistake, he's still our best, but may not be the guy we saw the past couple of years.

    I wonder if he'll take the All Star game off?

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    Let's not forget who is Kaprizov's agent. Paul Theofanous. He and Kaprizov hold all the cards when it comes to contract negotiations and Theofanous has a history of playing hardball and usually gets his clients top dollar. He made Panarin the top earner in the league at the time he signed with the Rangers. He is no doubt salivating at what he can get from the Wild knowing the franchise must keep Kaprizov at any and all costs. 

    With Kaprizov showing a certain lack of durability he can probably get more from the Wild than any other team. The Wild will be forced to overpay if in fact he wants to stay here. BG held the cards in the first contract knowing if Kaprizov wanted to play in the NHL it would have to be here there were no other options. Even at that BG didn't get what he wanted in length of the contract. 

    Kaprizov came to the NHL for one reason and that was to put the crowning achievement on his resume and that of course is to win the Stanley Cup. When he looks at this team at the end of next season is he going to see a team poised to win a Stanley Cup?  

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    17 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I wonder if he'll take the All Star game off?

    He took the All Star game off last year and he was in it.  Kap has a different compete level when it comes to games that matter and those that are mainly advertising for the league.

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    4 hours ago, MacGyver said:

    Let's not forget who is Kaprizov's agent. Paul Theofanous. He and Kaprizov hold all the cards when it comes to contract negotiations and Theofanous has a history of playing hardball and usually gets his clients top dollar. He made Panarin the top earner in the league at the time he signed with the Rangers. He is no doubt salivating at what he can get from the Wild knowing the franchise must keep Kaprizov at any and all costs. 

    With Kaprizov showing a certain lack of durability he can probably get more from the Wild than any other team. The Wild will be forced to overpay if in fact he wants to stay here. BG held the cards in the first contract knowing if Kaprizov wanted to play in the NHL it would have to be here there were no other options. Even at that BG didn't get what he wanted in length of the contract. 

    Kaprizov came to the NHL for one reason and that was to put the crowning achievement on his resume and that of course is to win the Stanley Cup. When he looks at this team at the end of next season is he going to see a team poised to win a Stanley Cup?  

    It depends on how patient everyone including him can be and whether he likes the team enough to wait it out.  I think might have a realistic chance of going deep in the playoffs in something like 27-28, but that comes down to Body, Rossi, and Faber continuing to improve, maybe 4-5 of our prospects becoming significant contributors, and probably a few really good free agents.  If Kaprizov doesn't want to wait for that (and injuries may make him less patient), then I don't think he sticks around.

    Whether he sticks around is also likely more about the overall trajectory of the team too.  Even if we look amazing in his contract year, he may not be keen in staying if there hasn't been steady progress in that direction.

     

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    On 1/10/2024 at 6:03 PM, Quebec1648 said:

    This is why we need a big body player on the Kaprizov line to help defend Kaprizov from the goons.

    I still say it doesn't require a big body player. It just takes guys willing to crunch the opponents star guys in retaliation. Big guys fighting big guys does nothing. Be a rat and fold a star in half and you will get the other guys attention.

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    On 1/10/2024 at 11:18 AM, mnfaninnc said:

    But, why do people assume he wants to leave? He likes being under the radar as far as media goes, and if he's got a few countrymen on the team, why not?

    You keep saying that as if it’s fact. Sure he’s a quiet guy but maybe he’s a quiet guy that wants to be on a winning team and play with high quality nhl players.

    Panarin seems kind of like the same guy. Doesn’t really like to do interviews but wants to be on a big market team with skilled players that have a chance at a cup.

    what I see in kaprizov is him getting tired and uninterested while playing hockey.

    Can you honestly say he’s the same player that was flying around cutting edges and scoring 40g and 60a? This team has no cohesion, few players that will stand up for each other, no real identity and isn’t really headed for bigger or better things in a lot of ppls opinion. He has no help so to speak. He’s a one man wrecking ball and that sounds exhausting when you’re the only one ppl look to.

    it seems like the allure of playing in the nhl has wore off from his 108pt season.

    he was on the best team in the khl and lead his team to a gangrian cup.

    im sure he wants to replicate that.

    i could be way off but it honestly seems like he’s bidding his time to get of this team and get to a winning team to have fun again.

    i can’t be the only one that is picking that up from him.

     

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    Pretty much agree with all the above. Kaprizov is used to one thing. Winning. He came to the NHL to win a Cup. His only choice to be in the NHL was to play for the Wild. I'd venture to guess if he had choices then he wouldn't be here now. He's the only nail that sticks up on the Wild so the other teams will hammer him down the most. Part of the reason he didn't take the max term contract of 8 years was his agent wanted the big payday after the five years and it left Kaprizov a way out if things went bad here.

    Sure the Wild have a few more Russians in the pipeline but they are not even here yet. They will still be prospects when and if they do get here and no guarantees they can adjust. People assume these guys are Kaprizov clones and are going to be putting up 100 point seasons as soon as they put their skates down on the Xcel Center ice.  Something tells me Kaprizov is not interested in spending more years surrounded by prospects.

    I read quite a bit about him before he came here. Even though he had a lot of money in Russia from playing for the KHL he lived very modestly. He shared a small apartment with some other players. He  most likely has all the money he needs right now. So for him the next contract won't be about who can give him the most money but where he can win a Cup. His agent can probably make both happen.  

    I agree with the Panarin comparison as well. The other thing Kaprizov and Panrin have in common is they have the same agent Paul Theofanous who has a reputation of being a hard baller and he seems get his players where they want to be and him and them a big payday in the process. 

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