By Tony Abbott -
The Marat Khusnutdinov Countdown is officially over. As of Wednesday, the skilled Russian forward whom the Minnesota Wild took in the second round of the 2020 draft has signed an NHL contract.
So what's next? First, Khusnutdinov has to jump through the hoops it takes to bring an international player stateside. Work visas, immigration processing, and whatever other labyrinthian bureaucracies the government puts in place to slow the flow of talented KHLers from helping the State of Hockey get a Stanley Cup. Once that stuff wraps up, Khusnutdinov's going to have to join the team, and he probably has to play somewhere.
The Athletic's Michael Russo quotes GM Bill Guerin as expecting their newcomer to "help us." However, Guerin gave himself and coach John Hynes some wiggle room if Hynes doesn't let Khusnutdinov crack the lineup. It makes sense for Guerin to exercise caution on the expectation for Khusnutdinov to play because it's kind of hard to crack the Minnesota Wild lineup right now.
Three weeks ago, Guerin publicly communicated to prospect Adam Beckman that his recent call-up was "his chance" to prove he belonged in the NHL. Instead, Beckman didn't get a sniff at ice time. Despite scoring six goals and eight points in nine games since Minnesota returned him to the AHL, there are no whispers about Beckman getting "his chance" anytime soon.
Meanwhile, Mason Shaw is still awaiting his chance in the NHL. Minnesota signed Shaw on February 15 after he scored four goals and seven points for the Iowa Wild coming off his fourth ACL surgery. Shaw's been back on the shelf ever since. Minnesota has made him a healthy scratch for six games despite two opportunities for Hynes to shake his lineup up after losses in that stretch.
Where does that leave Khusnutdinov, then? It's hard to say. On the one hand, Khusnutdinov is the kind of player who's bound to be a coach's favorite. He's fast, physical for his size, plays a game that disrupts opponents and has leadership qualities. On the other, if Shaw's unable to get into the lineup after the work he put in and a strong season last year, can we guarantee anything for Khusnutdinov?
So, rather than saying where he will play, let's focus on where he should play. What's the logical fit for him?
A few things complicate Khusnutdinov's pending role. For one, the Wild are six games out of a playoff spot entering Thursday, so they're fighting for their postseason hopes. Hynes has come to rely on Minnesota's current forward mix, and that status quo has remained relatively stable since the changeover from Dean Evason.
Then there's the fact that Minnesota still has a surplus of forwards -- enough to block out Shaw, at least -- even with Marcus Foligno and Pat Maroon out with injuries. And, for the most part, the team doesn't have many weak links up front.
Minnesota has 14 forwards who've played 150-plus minutes this season. According to Evolving-Hockey's Standings Points Above Replacement (SPAR), 12 of them are above replacement level. When healthy, the Wild can ice a lineup where everyone pulls their weight.
But down two regulars, there are two opportunities to improve immediately. We're zeroing in on Jake Lucchini (-0.1 SPAR in 158 minutes) and Freddy Gaudreau (-1.3 SPAR in 653 minutes).
Lucchini is playing with Marco Rossi and Vinni Lettieri in what might be the most marinara-named line in hockey. Gaudreau has looked for a consistent home in the lineup all season, most recently centering Marcus Johansson and Mats Zuccarello in Tuesday night's loss against the Carolina Hurricanes.
For what the Wild are currently trying to do, Lucchini is the ideal spot for Khusnutdinov to land. Hynes has enjoyed watching the speed of those three players, telling Dylan Loucks of The Hockey News on February 22, "I think that line has an identity.... They're quick, fast, tenacious, they're turning plays, they're checking pucks, they're spending time in the offensive zone and they're scoring."
That all mirrors Khusnutdinov's game, but will Hynes change things if he likes that line? Why? Just to? Especially when Hynes told Loucks, "I think when you look at Lucchini, he's been really impressive to me."
So that leaves Gaudreau's spot, and again, Khusnutdinov's speed and versatility match Gaudreau's style and role. Gaudreau's struggles have also been evident this season. After scoring 44 points in 2021-22 and 38 more last year, he's down to 11 in 47 games this season. Since the calendar flipped to 2024, he's had two points in 22 games.
Hynes put Gaudreau in that second-line role, hoping the opportunity and positional change would provide a spark. "We haven't played Freddy in the middle in 18 games," Hynes told Loucks on Tuesday. "He's played pretty well in the last couple of games and he does play well at center."
Gaudreau, Johansson, and Zuccarello combined to generate two shots at 5-on-5 play on Tuesday, according to Natural Stat Trick.
It makes sense for Gaudreau to come out of the lineup, but is that a step the Wild are willing to make? Even with the slump, Hynes seems to trust Gaudreau. Natural Stat Trick has his average 5-on-5 ice time jumping from 9 minutes and 34 seconds under Evason to 10:34 under Hynes. Gaudreau also has a contract that extends for four more seasons and is likely untradable, even without Gaudreau wielding a 15-team no-trade clause.
Should Khusnutdinov play? Probably. He's held his own and more in years as a pro in Russia, even though he won't turn 22 until July. Khusnutdinov is certainly a bigger part of the Wild's future than the 30-year-old Gaudreau or the 28-year-old Lucchini. It makes sense to prioritize Khusnutdinov for the long term, and it probably even makes sense in the case of their current playoff chase.
But should play and will play are possibly two very different things. We'll see where the Wild fall in the next few weeks.
All data via Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise noted.
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