What If the Kirill Kaprizov News Is All About the Money?

Hundreds of years ago, it was widely accepted that earthquakes came without warning. At some point, the gods got mad at you, and they shook the earth until all your stuff was broken. That was how things worked. 

However, with the advent of scientific study, it was discovered that before your home is shaken to dust, crushing you and the ones you love, there is a non-destructive seismic wave that comes before the earthquake. These P-waves move vertically, and they are faster than the S-waves (secondary waves), which move horizontally. It is the S-waves, shaking side-to-side, which actually tear the foundation from the structure. 

Wednesday morning, NHL insider Frank Seravalli tweeted out the P-waves of some seismic Minnesota Wild news: 

Kirill Kaprizov turned down an eight-year, $16 million per-year contract offer. 

Another crucial discovery of modern science: P-waves sometimes come without any S-waves behind them. 

Sometimes, P-waves portend certain doom. They can also be totally harmless. 

That’s not to diminish the stakes. Losing Kaprizov via trade or free agency would be terrible for the Wild and its fans. The hopes of a Stanley Cup window would vanish. Even if the team trades Kaprizov and uses the cap space they were saving for his extension, they’ll never recreate him in the aggregate. 

Hell, if Kaprizov leaves, I might go with him. 

But let’s all slow down a minute. He’s not out of town yet. Do we really all need to freak out? 

First, ask the media literacy question: How does Seravalli get this information? 

He wasn’t in the room negotiating for either side, so he had to get his information from Kaprizov’s camp or the Wild. Why would the Wild leak this kind of information? Perhaps as a power play to incite fan backlash at Kaprizov, or damage his theoretical value in endorsement deals. Framing him as a greedy player could put pressure on Kaprizov’s camp to return to the table and take the original deal. 

If that’s the case, their gambit was not successful. That leads me to think the opposite is more likely: that Kaprizov’s camp leaked this information to put pressure on Bill Guerin. The public reaction is mostly that if Guerin fails to get this deal done, it’s a disaster for Minnesota. 
It’s already gotten a certain columnist to write about earthquakes. 

Tweets from NHL insiders are part of a negotiation, not the end of it. Whoever supplied this information wants to use that as leverage in the negotiation, which implies it’s still ongoing. 

Reason 1: Kaprizov may be open to a short-term extension

Changing gears, let’s address another alarming question that this news raises: Did Kaprizov turn this down because he won’t commit long-term? Even The Athletic asked that very question of the Wild GM, according to their recent report. 

It sounds terrifying to think that Kaprizov may not want to commit to the Wild long-term, especially for those Minnesota sports fans who wear their insecurities on their sleeve. Here’s the good news, though: If Kaprizov is looking for a shorter term, that would still imply a short-term extension is coming. 

Sure, eight years is more than three, four, or five. It’s still a substantial amount of time for Wild fans to enjoy the stupendous on-ice product, which is Kirill Kaprizov in his prime. Perhaps more importantly, it lines up with the competitive window that the Wild have been building towards since they bought out Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. 

On top of that, Kaprizov would come back to the table in several years just the same as he is now. Would that really be the end of the world? Of course not. 

Michael Russo recently reported that the issue is not the term. Still, that doesn’t mean that a short-term deal couldn’t be reached as negotiations move forward. 

Reason 2: A little more money solves a lot of problems

In February, I took a hard look at the exploding salary cap to investigate what an eight-year Kaprizov contract should cost. 

Based on past comparables, it seemed like the conversation would start around a $15 to $16 AAV, with several intangible factors driving that number up if Kaprizov wanted to push his number north rather than leave the Wild more cap space. $18 million per year seemed like the upper bound on Kaprizov’s on-ice value. 

That $18 million estimate was Dom Luszczyszyn-approved. 

It’s important to note that the $18 million number relies on an aggressive cap inflation of 5%. Before the pandemic, cap inflation was closer to 4%. However, there has been a bounce-back, which has led to the rapidly increasing cap. If that trend continues for the next five years, 5% cap inflation is not unreasonable. 

Still, more conservative cap inflation estimates put Kaprizov’s updated market value around $15 or $16 million on a seven-year deal. 

What if this whole negotiation has nothing to do with term or Kaprizov’s belief in the Wild? What if, like most negotiations, it’s all about money? 

Michael Russo has hinted more than once on his Worst Seats in the House podcast that Kaprizov’s agent, Paul Theofanous, has a reputation for getting the most money possible for his players. That’s a compliment -- player agents’ first concern should be taking care of their clients’ finances, not helping them secure a Stanley Cup. 

If there are statistical models in the public sphere that point to an $18 million AAV over eight years, there’s a good chance one of 32 NHL teams has a model that meets or exceeds that number. As for the $16 million AAV that was rejected on Wednesday, it’s almost certain that someone will pay more. 

Of all the teams to do it, Minnesota is probably the most likely. The team is in a win-now window, and Kaprizov is their star player. Letting him walk for nothing, or even trading him, could put Guerin on the hot seat. That gives Theofanous exceptional leverage to reset the market on Kaprizov’s extension. 

On top of that, in the early stages of a negotiation, why would Theofanous do anything but target an overpay? If Kaprizov’s fair market value is $18 million per year, why not shoot for $20 million? It’s not as if NHL teams never overpay a player. There’s a very strong chance both teams return to the table at a higher number on an eight-year contract. 

Reason 3: Rejection might be “not yet” instead of “never” 

Nothing is stopping the two sides from coming together at a later date and signing the very same deal that’s on the table now. 

First, the risk of pushing out an extension is all taken on by Kaprizov. If he suffers an injury in the 2025-26 season, it could further reduce his market value, costing him tens of millions in career earnings. 

Furthermore, Kaprizov is about to learn a lot about his new teammates over the next few months, especially the newcomers. 

Zeev Buium, David Jiricek, and Danila Yurov are all toolsy young players. They’re also complete wild cards for the 2024-25 season. If one or two of them pops, nothing is stopping Kaprizov from signing that very same eight-year $16 million per-year deal to run this back as long as he can. 

Consider how much Kaprizov will learn about these players during training camp. He’s only played with Buium in the playoffs, which amounts to a few days of practice and less than 60 minutes on the ice together. Danila Yurov could rocket Minnesota’s top-six forward group into elite range. Failing that, the addition of Vladimir Tarasenko provides a scoring floor. David Jiricek is returning from injury and could also come on strong by the end of the season. 

Kaprizov hasn’t spent a single training camp with any of these players. Some of them have never taken the ice with him in an NHL game. If Kaprizov’s primary concern is whether the Wild can win a Cup over the next eight years, why sign now before he gets to see more? 

Even if none of those players work out, Minnesota still has nearly ten months to make its pitch to Kaprizov. A trade deadline acquisition or even a move on July 1, 2025, could keep Kaprizov in Minnesota. If Kaprizov’s only concern is whether the Wild can contend, many factors that could convince him to stay in Minnesota before he can legally negotiate with any other team. 

Don’t panic (yet)

The next few days will explain a lot about the Kaprizov extension. Guerin recently appeared on a podcast to downplay the news, stating, “that info didn’t come from us, and it didn’t come from Kirill’s agent.” 

Guerin has a vested interest in this news. He’s not an unbiased source; however, taken at face value, his words are just one more reason not to panic just yet. 

Here’s the thing: S-waves and P-waves are, geologically speaking, two parts of the same earthquake. I can’t guarantee that that’s not the case here. 

Time will tell whether Seravalli’s report is just part of the negotiation or the start of a disaster. 

Keep a close eye on your seismographs. This could be nothing, or it could be everything. Just don’t climb under a table until the ground is actually shaking under your feet.