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  • The Wild's Veteran Extensions Revealed Their No. 1 Priority


    Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn - USA TODAY Sports
    Justin Hein

     

    You’ll hear a common refrain from fans in the State of Hockey: Just one before I die. The Minnesota market asks for just one Stanley Cup, one Super Bowl, and one Championship run. It takes a lot of pain for fandom to make one contemplate mortality. 

    With 32 franchises, the average NHL fan should see a championship by the time they reach middle age. That’s just simple math. Sure, teams that engage in a cycle of buying and selling may take longer or shorter to build a contender, but the math should even out in the long run. Especially for the teams that are in the playoff mix every year, right? 

    Except, fans in this state are all too familiar with the limitations of that strategy. The Vikings and Wild are masters at getting stuck in always a playoff team, never a contender limbo. Some fans love the excitement it brings in the regular season. Others beg the team to blow it up and start from scratch. 

    If the teams can’t stomach tanking, at least pick a year when the writing is on the wall to bring along younger players. But by re-signing Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno, and Ryan Hartman, the Minnesota Wild indicated that that year won’t be coming anytime soon. 

    It sounds fatalistic but consider just how quickly the near future of this franchise changed. When the Minnesotan sun rose on September 29th, the Wild had nearly $23 million in cap space projected for 2024-25. There was an open spot for a No. 1 center, a top-line wing, and another winger in the top 9. By sunset on October 9th, those spots and $12.125 million of that cap space were gone. 

    That was tough for the “blow it up” crowd. The past few years have really smelled like a conscious rebuild. The team moved on from Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise, and Ryan Suter and incurred a heavy dead cap hit by buying Parise and Suter out. Without adequate cap space, they had to move on from fan favorites Kevin Fiala and Matt Dumba

    The team remained competitive, mostly through Kirill Kaprizov’s arrival and an elite defense. But Minnesota’s defense is slowly aging and turning over. Conversely, they’ve locked up a relatively young forward group: Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Johansson, and Frederick Gaudreau

    Fans had earmarked many of the remaining forward spots for young talent. Sammy Walker and Adam Beckman seem ready to be eased into NHL action. Danila Yurov, Marat Khusnutdinov, and Liam Ohgren should eventually arrive in St. Paul by the summer of 2024. Perhaps not all of them would be ready, but now there’s precious little room for any of them among the top-six forward spots. 

    Suddenly, cap space in ‘24-25 seems tight. The team has under $10.8 million in cap space. From that, they need to give Sammy Walker, Connor Dewar, and Calen Addison a raise. After that, they’ll need to pay another forward, plus a seventh defenseman. That doesn’t leave much room for imagination. 

    To be clear, the Foligno, Zuccarello, and Hartman extensions aren’t bad deals. The Zuccarello deal is a steal for Minnesota, even accounting for his age. At only three years, Hartman’s extension is efficient as long as he keeps up his current quality of play. Foligno’s contract may be an over-pay, especially given the term, but his role in the locker room is impossible to measure. 

    Foligno’s is the least efficient from an analytical perspective, but it’s balanced out well by Zuccarello’s deal. 

    In Luszczyszyn’s summer article on contract efficiency, he valued Hartman’s 2023-24 value (his age 29 season) at $5.4 million. Even factoring in age, he’ll likely outplay a $4 million AAV in over his age 30-32 seasons. 

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    None of these numbers captures the value each of these players brings to the Wild’s team culture, which might be why they’ve been able to lock down their young players at such efficient deals over the long term. Taken together, these contracts are approximately even value over the lifetime of the deals. 

    That’s the operative phrase, though -- “over the lifetime of the deals.” The value of these contracts gets worse every year because each player will most likely decline faster than a rising salary cap can reduce the sting of these deals. They were signed knowing they would look good for the first year or two, then lose value. So what good are they if Minnesota can’t contend in those years? 

    Conventional wisdom in the buy-sell cycle of sports is that teams should eat bad contracts in the years they don’t expect to contend. Pay off aging veterans from the last Cup run, or weaponize cap space for draft assets. These three extensions seem to buck that trend. Minnesota’s best chance to contend is for the top-tier prospects (Rossi, Faber, Ohgren, Yurov, etc.) to join the team, develop quickly, and power the team to a championship. Factor in growing pains, and that likely won’t be until the 2026 or 2027 Stanley Cup playoffs. Theoretically, these are the least efficient years for this set of contracts. 

    There are only three reasons the team would sign these deals: 

    1. They don’t know about aging curves (unlikely)
    2. They think the team should go all in now and deal with the consequences later.
    3. The team totally eschews the cycle of rebuilding and contending.

    None of these are good for fans with a Championship or Bust mentality. No. 1 would be laughable, and No. 2 would call into question the team’s ability to evaluate its own roster. If that’s the case, don’t hold your breath for new management anytime soon. The team promoted and extended Bill Guerin this offseason. 

    More likely than either of these (thankfully) is No. 3, which is somewhat unsatisfying. Then again, the truth often is. A more interesting question is, Why does the team think this way? 

    Ask yourself what kind of person is so obsessed with hockey as to become an executive. Owners must move billions of dollars in assets to acquire an NHL franchise -- either that, or they’re born into a family who’s already done that. Front office executives are even crazier. They decided in their early career to jump into one of the most competitive labor markets. They believe that the only thing more competitive than working in professional sports is them. In Bill Guerin’s case, he was right. 

    Ultimately, Guerin can only stomach so much rebuilding. Perhaps that’s why he bought out the Parise and Suter contracts in the first place -- he could handle a few years of nasty cap hits. Years of working around them before years of cap recapture hell? Not so much. 

    That squares with the limited guidance that team owner Craig Leipold puts into the public sphere. By all accounts, he’s a hands-off owner. However, there seems to be a clear mandate to compete. Michael Russo recently asked Leipold about rebuilding. Leipold responded, “That’s a word that has not been ever mentioned in the offices of the Minnesota Wild in the last couple years.” 

    For fans who want to see the team’s big rebuild, look to the past. Barring new management and probably new ownership, the buyouts and Kevin Fiala trade are the closest this team will come to that. In the meantime, enjoy the ride. Minnesota has proven that competing every year is a priority. 

    Call it the team’s thesis statement. Every year, every game, the Wild will be playing meaningful hockey. Fans will always have something to cheer for, and their favorite players will always have something to play for. With savvy cap management and drafting, Minnesota guarantees an exciting product -- 86 games per year or more. 

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    If this team had not been so crazy good at drafting, one has to wonder what the outlook would be. Imagine if there was no Yurov, Dino, or Ohgren on the way. Then what would the future look like? Craig has never wanted to rebuild. Judd Brackett is the real unsung hero of this team with his ability to keep this team's future bright. 

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    3 minutes ago, Luke Sims said:

    If this team had not been so crazy good at drafting, one has to wonder what the outlook would be. Imagine if there was no Yurov, Dino, or Ohgren on the way. Then what would the future look like? Craig has never wanted to rebuild. Judd Brackett is the real unsung hero of this team with his ability to keep this team's future bright. 

    Brock Faber and a bunch of old dudes

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    This is where I find the messaging from  Guerin to be contradictory. It is suppose to be about f*cking winning. How do we expect essentially the same team to take us to a cup. You can't make a cake if the ingredients aren't there.

    The progress of the young guns that have found spots on this team has been fantastic. Dewar, Duhaime, Boldy, Rossi, Faber and even Addison are all showing flashes or more of why they should be in the line up. Now we are staring down the barrel of ~10M to sign Dewar, Duhaime, Addison, another defender, goalie and forward. We may see one or more of these young players with potential for improvement sent down the road for nothing or price themselves out of our range with a good year. Personally I would rather see Duhaime and Dewar retained than more 30+ year old veterans whose upside is, at best, limited and whose chance to decline is high.

    Hopefully Jesper is ready @ limited cap hit, one defensive prospect can step up on an ELC and maybe even another forward prospect. That leaves 7M to sign the other three which is reasonable provided none of those three has a breakout year. However, banking on your young guys to stagnate instead of progress does not seem like a winning formula. That cap math certainly doesn't leave room to bring in impact free agents.

    Not saying all three deals were bad. Zucc and Hartman were both reasonably priced. Just asking how these deals are going to further our quest for a cup, especially with the NMC's. I don't see Foligno or Hartman pricing themselves out of Minn this year, Dewar and Duhaime just may. Making us older and slower is not the way to take home the Cup.

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    So option 3 means bills been here almost a decade with nothing to show for it but well paid friends . Chicago has so many 1st and second round picks. When are option 3 rolls around Chicago will have a team of 1st and second rounders. We will have a couple 20 th overalls. 
        The wild don’t play meaningful hockey.. it’s only meaningful to Craig to get two home playoff games for profit. Not to win just to get his gate money and kappy  jersey sales. It’s just grifting . 
        Why didn’t we  sell off some players at trade deadlines over past few years  to acquire some picks? Why doesn’t are gm makes bold moves like Vegas or Florida.? Hartman is not a # 1 center .why do the wild spend more time making videos than trying to upgrade or improve their team?  I guess lots of people must think like Wes walz. . A 7 -4 loss showed lots of effort he says. Finding success in failure . I saw an undersized team getting pushed around by big centers and d while our d men  show they are going to get exploited all year with there lack of defensive skill. 
       Billy re upping all these guys tells me they’re never going to sniff the 2 nd round. 

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    The worst part of being a fan of a MN team is the other fans. Idk why as a group we accept the same crap every year. Stop buying tickets and see how quickly the owners of these teams change their tune. They won't be able to move, because no other state in this country is happy with the roll over and die mentality. There is a reason other markets get championships, their fans demand it, and the owners don't make money when the fans stay home. If I was drafted by the wild, I'd demand a trade day one. There is almost no path to the NHL in this organization. 

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    1 hour ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

    This is where I find the messaging from  Guerin to be contradictory. It is suppose to be about f*cking winning. How do we expect essentially the same team to take us to a cup. You can't make a cake if the ingredients aren't there.

    It's likely that they think they can win now and in the future. I personally don't think the team is there yet, but most professional organizations simply can't wait to try and push for a cup. It's how they're wired. 

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    Honestly the wild are only about getting to 1st round to get those 2 home game’s for profit. It’s only about business not winning the round. Hearing Modano is around you would hope he would talk sense into bill about players and contracts. Instead bill re upped players who disappear in playoffs. So to me it says Craig is not willing to risk not getting two playoff home games over upgrading his team.  There is no winning culture in Minnesota. It’s grifting for profit. Just pay walz and parish to go spew propaganda. Don’t believe your eyes believe them. Haha. 

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    33 minutes ago, Greenbean said:

    The worst part of being a fan of a MN team is the other fans. Idk why as a group we accept the same crap every year. Stop buying tickets and see how quickly the owners of these teams change their tune. They won't be able to move, because no other state in this country is happy with the roll over and die mentality. There is a reason other markets get championships, their fans demand it, and the owners don't make money when the fans stay home. If I was drafted by the wild, I'd demand a trade day one. There is almost no path to the NHL in this organization. 

    You said it all in your first sentence...give me a break.

    Edited by M_Nels
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    A seemingly forgotten aspect of these contracts is the ability to move them. It would not be easy but it is doable (except Zuccy's I think). If that is Bill's plan all this goes out the window and is nothing more than a hedge against the timeline for player development.

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    35 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

    A seemingly forgotten aspect of these contracts is the ability to move them. It would not be easy but it is doable (except Zuccy's I think). If that is Bill's plan all this goes out the window and is nothing more than a hedge against the timeline for player development.

    Zucc has a modified 10 team NTC this year followed by NMC for the remainder. Hartman and Foligno have NMC retroactively this year and for the rest of their contracts. Even Freddy got a 15 team NTC on his deal.

    Literally the only people we can move without their blessing is JEE, Boldy, Kap, Rossi and the Dewy Bros. All our young players we are hoping to make a core out of💩

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    1 hour ago, Justin Hein said:

    It's likely that they think they can win now and in the future. I personally don't think the team is there yet, but most professional organizations simply can't wait to try and push for a cup. It's how they're wired. 

    We've already seen how that plays out. We can stay a middling team with a first round exit year after year.

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    1 hour ago, Dean said:

    Honestly the wild are only about getting to 1st round to get those 2 home game’s for profit. ... Bill re upped players who disappear in playoffs. So to me it says Craig is not willing to risk not getting two playoff home games over upgrading his team.  

    I don't know if 2 extra games is the motive here. 3 home playoff games is an extra 7%. Significant, but not enough to build your whole business strategy around. It's far more likely that (if driven by profit only) it has a lot more to do with keeping the fan base engaged for those first 41 games. 

    It seems far more likely to me that the team just doesn't think tanking is good for it's Stanley Cup chances. They're more concerned with winning every day, building a winning culture, and getting lucky on a deep run. You can disagree with that philosophy all you like. It didn't work for Florida. 

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    12 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

    We've already seen how that plays out. We can stay a middling team with a first round exit year after year.

    I won't argue with you about this -- I'm somewhat inclined to agree. In the meantime I encourage all fans to enjoy the hockey we get, even if it's only 86 games a year. 

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    3 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

    I won't argue with you about this -- I'm somewhat inclined to agree. In the meantime I encourage all fans to enjoy the hockey we get, even if it's only 86 games a year. 

    I can absolutely agree to this! I still watch every Wild game, and cheer on their every victory. Starting to doubt the trust in BG is all. 

    Thanks for a great article Justin!

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    On 10/20/2023 at 12:02 PM, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

    Now we are staring down the barrel of ~10M to sign Dewar, Duhaime, Addison, another defender, goalie and forward. We may see one or more of these young players with potential for improvement sent down the road for nothing or price themselves out of our range with a good year. Personally I would rather see Duhaime and Dewar retained

    Wtf are you talking about? 
    A) those are 4th liners. Yeah they’re good 4th liners but so was Sturm and somehow we replaced him, right? 
    B) Addison isn’t going to cost a ton. Maybe $3M tops. 
    C) they’ve been drafting defenders high in the draft since 2020 and those guys will be able to come in and replace Goose and Merrill. That’s not getting old and slow. It’s not going to cost them millions. 
    D) Wallstedt is clearly the future starting goalie for this team after MAF retires following this season.

    Chill out bro. The panic about the cap and future of the team is completely unsubstantiated.

    I get that the deals for Zucc/Foligno/Hartman lock us into much of the same core but are you also aware this core has led us to back to back 100 point seasons?? 103 points last year was the 3rd best total in total team history and that was without Kevin Fiala and no Faber until the very end of the year. No Rossi either. 

    I get we lose in the first round, and that sucks, but both times they were up 2-1 in the series before collapsing. The players seem okay, the question is coaching tbh. Dean has gotten outmaneuvered in back to back series. 

    We’ll see how he does this year but I don’t think we’re in nearly as much of a bind as you’re playing it out to be. He may not be the long term answer at HC, but that’s a fairly easy remedy.

    Roster wise they’ll be okay.

    Edited by B1GKappa97
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    15 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    B) Addison isn’t going to cost a ton. Maybe $3M tops.

    The way Addison got rag dolled by Jenner last night I really don't see a spot for him going forward. His claim to fame is as the QB of the PP. Not sure I am seeing his value there either.

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    11 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

    The way Addison got rag dolled by Jenner last night I really don't see a spot for him going forward. His claim to fame is as the QB of the PP. Not sure I am seeing his value there either.

    I'm pretty sure that they are telling Addison to just shoot it from the blue line on the PP anyways even though his shot is weak.    He moves the puck ok but then again so could half the team.  His defense is so bad is he really better than a forward in that QB role? 

    The guy is pretty much filler IMO.  Not even close to worth 3M let alone a roster spot. 

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    If this is the way the season is going to go, all these extensions will have provided will be a top 5 pick each of the next 3 years. Unfortunately there will be no room on the roster. Unless they sell off those without an NT...but those are the guys who are young, skilled, fast, have a ton of upside and are really giving it their all. Oh well.

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