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  • Zuccarello Broke the Mold By Signing A Team-Friendly Deal

    Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
    Justin Hein

    By Justin Hein -

    When Mats Zuccarello pulled up to training camp, he had to know that his career hung in the balance. His position with the team was solid, but he just turned 36 and is playing in a contract year. The NHL isn’t exactly a game for old men. But any uneasiness he may have felt was gone with the stroke of a pen on September 29. For the next two years and seven (or more) months, Zuccarello knows what he’ll be doing. 

    He’ll be playing hockey for the Minnesota Wild. 

    For aging players, the job security that comes with term is often more important than the dollar amount they receive. It’s a driving reason why contracts get cheaper as players get older. Sure, declining athleticism is the main factor. Immediately after that factor, though, is a simple truth. Hockey players want to play hockey for as long as possible because they don’t want to do anything else. If it means taking a haircut to guarantee another year, so be it.

    Zuccarello’s contract goes a step further than that. He doesn’t just want to play hockey for as long as he can; he doesn't want to play hockey anywhere else. He may be getting older, but playmaking forwards can command a strong price as late into their careers as they want, so long as they produce. Zuccarello is a shoo-in for the power play and the top line across from Kirill Kaprizov, so production shouldn't be an issue. Despite that, he and his agent agreed to a contract that public analytical models find overwhelmingly favorable to the team. 

    Dom Luszczyszyn’s (The Athletic) analytical models, which produced the card above, is optimistic about Zuccarello's future. It uses a blend of advanced analytics, traditional stats, and aging curves to project every NHL player's contributions to his team. Even after factoring in a steady (and predictable) reduction in offensive contribution, the model predicts a 66% chance that Zucarrello will provide more value than his salary cap hit would suggest. 

    Luszczyszyn used the same model this summer to project the efficiency of every contract across the league. Based on this information and a lot of research on CapFriendly.com, we can break down how Zuccarello’s contract stacks up against similar late-30s deals across the league. 

    First, note that when teams hand out contracts to players in their 30s, they nearly always pay the player above the market rate for their on-ice impact. There are two main reasons for this: 

    1. Teams are willing to pay extra for a locker room leader, betting that it improves the entire team’s on-ice product
    2. The CBA suppresses pay for younger players, leaving extra cap space in the market, which teams have to spend elsewhere. 

    The league is littered with contracts with a face value higher than the player’s projected on-ice value per Luszczyszyn’s model -- “the over-pays.” Among players 34 and older, these include the likes of Alex Ovechkin ($9.5 million AAV over three remaining seasons), Alex Killorn ($6.25 million over four years), Jordan Staal ($2.9 million over four years), and Evgenii Dadonov (2.25 million for the next two years). 

    Some of these deals are fine -- Staal and Dadonov, for example, have a reasonable chance to remain positive over the length of the contracts, even if it's not the most likely outcome. Those deals makes sense, given that the Carolina Hurricanes and Dallas Stars are competing now. They are squeezing the most out of this season and will deal with the consequences later. Other deals, such as Ovechkin's, Jeff Carter’s ($3.25 million in the last year of his deal), and Cal Clutterbuck's ($1.75 million this season), have already exhausted the good part of their life span and are now in the ugly stages. 

    Compare that to the league’s most team-friendly deals with a similar AAV to Zuccarello’s: 

    Note the Stanley Cup odds at the time of this writing are for these teams. 

    • Colorado is 8:1
    • Dallas is 13:1
    • Boston is 17:1
    • Edmonton is 11:1
    • Toronto is 11:1

    Vegas has Minnesota listed at thirty-to-one. Those odds are two or three times as long as the other teams getting “sweetheart” deals from aging vets. 

    Aside from these nine contracts, Claude Giroux, David Perron, and Max Pacioretty are the only ones comparable to Zuccarello’s. The Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Washington Capitals all have longer odds than Minnesota, but these veterans signed short deals with favorable AAV anyway. 

    These four deals stand apart from the other positive-value contracts around the NHL. They didn’t sign them during restricted free agency, like Matt Boldy or Joel Eriksson Ek. They also weren’t signed by a player in his 20s jumping at his first chance for life-changing money, like Jake Middleton. They are relatively short deals, so they aren’t trading dollars for term. Unlike the nine sweetheart deals above, the team they signed with had average or below-average Stanley Cup odds. So, what do they have in common? 

    In short, these teams have fun teammates to play with. Giroux will go home to his native Ontario and play with up-and-coming talents Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk. Perron seems to be betting on Detroit’s “Yzer-plan,” with a chance to play with Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin. Both of these teams also have impressive management, with whispers of an opening cup window. Pacioretty? He gets a chance to play with Ovi and contribute to what could be the greatest goal-scoring career in history. 

    Taking all of this together, Zuccarello’s contract says a lot about how players feel about Minnesota’s clubhouse. The excitement created by players as good as Kirill Kaprizov simply can’t be overstated. Zuccy wants to be a part of this team so badly that he’s willing to tie the end of his career to it and take a pay cut. If he’s right, the State of Hockey is in for a treat this season. 

     

    By Justin Hein  

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    vonlonster67

    So I'm all about a fair deal and I'm curious who would have paid him more next year? Maybe a return to NY?

    If he took a home town deal, are we talking $5M+ to sign him to 2 years somewhere else? Because that has to be the limitation for years from any team.

    Factors that aren't included in the eval are injury concerns which are of greater potential since he has been hit the past few years and not 100% for the playoffs. I'm guessing he was not crazy about leaving KK, an established area for his wife/daughter during the season, and the fact of starting over again with a new team. learning new players, teams and systems. 

    So looking at everything I see it as a trade off, less money for WIld, and potential of injury for the Wild. No changes for Zucci and stay with KK until he rides off into the sunset.

    Interesting on the Moose breakdown and supports what everyone is feeling. For me if I'm going to buy in it's about leadership and experience like you referenced. I'm warming up to the Zucci contract after a week of shock and awe. The Moose contract I've accepted, but I'm going to be looking pretty hard at it in two years for situational application and possible change.

    Edited by vonlonster67
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    Backwoodsbob
    23 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

    Interesting on the Moose breakdown and supports what everyone is feeling. For me if I'm going to buy in it's about leadership and experience like you referenced. I'm warming up to the Zucci contract after a week of shock and awe. The Moose contract I've accepted, but I'm going to be looking pretty hard at it in two years for situational application and possible change.

    I feel that we may be in the same boat except the acceptance of Moose's contract. I'm still having a hard time justifying the length and dollars 4yrs @ $16m? For that price, we might've been able to keep Dumba here somehow with a team friendly deal with a larger paycheck further down the road, as he signed for $3.9m for 1yr. He was an "A" and a locker room leader.

    Here's to hoping a Moose can prove me wrong and make me eat crow!

     

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    Protec

    As of now, I would guess Goligoski and Merrill are in their last year. Fleury, if he stayed one more year would be no more expensive that the current hit. Same for Maroon. Gustaffsson and Addison have to prove themselves yet. A bad season would force the question whether either guy sticks around. 

    Assuming Hartman is resigned, there should be some left for Dewar if no other trades or changes come. Since the cap is expected to go up, even better chance the Wild can take care of business.

    These veteran deals as a package will be okay. One better than another but when you consider the bargain for Ek, fair value for HOF goalie & Gus, the solid value on Kaprizov & Boldy, Minnesota has a pretty decent balance. If Foligno's contract is the worst in the group, compared to the previous Pomminville or Ennis experience, and especially the Parise/Suter behemoth hits, the Wild are in okay shape. I mentioned this in another thread, I'd like to see the MN vets get paid rather than cheapen their deals or send em out for that money to be allocated towards young guys or future unknown players yet to be signed. In some ways it's like a punitive statement towards guys who gave to the organization so new guys can be paid while the cap is tight. 

    GM can't be popular with everyone all the time but Guerin has had much better senses on his acquisitions and he hasn't given away too much too often with contracts or picks. That and the Wild pushing for the top of the Central, I'm impressed with the reversal since Fenton & Fletcher. If Rossi begins to become a full-time NHL guy, and the veterans play good, it will be another playoff chance.

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    Justin Hein
    On 10/6/2023 at 5:25 PM, vonlonster67 said:

    So I'm all about a fair deal and I'm curious who would have paid him more next year? Maybe a return to NY?

    If he took a home town deal, are we talking $5M+ to sign him to 2 years somewhere else? Because that has to be the limitation for years from any team.

    Off the top of my head, Chicago needs good players in a desperate way and Zuccarello could certainly do for Bedard what he did for Kirill. They won't compete soon, so they could have given him more term and bought out the contract. If it helps develop Bedard, it's easy to justify overpaying Zuccarello. His past two seasons have been enough to bait plenty of teams into a 2-4 year deal at market value.  

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    Protec

    ^^^

    If you just look at the group of players with similar roles and point totals around Zuccarello, it's a pretty nice group. If you looked at the AAVs from that group, you would feel good that GMBG made a fair deal. 

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    Velgey
    On 10/6/2023 at 11:19 PM, Protec said:

    If Foligno's contract is the worst in the group, compared to the previous Pomminville or Ennis experience, and especially the Parise/Suter behemoth hits, the Wild are in okay shape.

    Yes, teams, including the Wild in the past, have certainly tied themselves down with far worse contracts than Foligno's. Doesn't mean fans have to like it, but it seems doubtful Foligno turns into a sufficiently terrible boat anchor to make everyone hate the contract like some previous ones. Remember when Tomas Vanek was trying to play with basically no legs or checking?

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    Protec
    52 minutes ago, Velgey said:

    Yes, teams, including the Wild in the past, have certainly tied themselves down with far worse contracts than Foligno's. Doesn't mean fans have to like it, but it seems doubtful Foligno turns into a sufficiently terrible boat anchor to make everyone hate the contract like some previous ones. Remember when Tomas Vanek was trying to play with basically no legs or checking?

    Yes, and he was bought out. It was a different time and getting Hanzal, Ennis, Vanek, or Staal was the chase during that time with Parise and Suter behind the scenes. Parise's squinty eyes and quick blinks of disbelief were classic as they'd lose playoff series. Those were the days when Cooke, Bergenhiem, Hanzal, Aberg were the mid-season or deadline pickups. Pretty weak.

    The Staal deal worked well enough but the Wild's current contracts are more of the core guys and chemistry versus mercenary force. I think Guerin's senses on these things is better than Fletcher for sure. Fenton kinda screwed himself out of getting any record to analyze but generally it wasn't good. The Wild's chemistry and culture now are good.

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