The Wild Still Need To Show Us the River

Wednesday was one of the most unproductive days in the state of Minnesota. Coffee was poured, and energy drinks were crushed. Power naps at the desk were mandatory, and blue eyes were complemented by bloodshot red.

It wasn’t because the entire state had a four-night stay in Vegas. It was because a few hours earlier, these fans were sitting in their living room, waking up the entire neighborhood in their Marcus Foligno jerseys as the Minnesota Wild earned a 5-2 win over the Vegas Golden Knights.

It’s hard not to be excited about one of the Wild’s best performances since January. Minnesota now has home ice advantage after entering the series as underdogs. The Golden Knights will have to skate into an arena full of 18,000 fans who have traveled from the suburbs decked out in “HARD” chains and face an uphill climb back to Nevada either tied or with a 3-1 advantage.

But while it’s good to be excited, there’s still work to be done.

The Wild still needs to show us the river in this playoff series.

Anybody who has played Texas Hold ‘Em knows what I’m talking about. You have pocket aces and the dealer throws down the flop with an ace and a pair of sixes. You bet the pot, and someone calls. The dealer throws down a queen at the turn. You go all in, and the guy does the same. You reveal your aces while he reveals a pair of sixes. A nine on the river later, you’re down a couple thousand dollars with a hand you thought would never lose.

That's what the Wild's recent playoff history feels like. They split the first two games and won Game 3. Game 4 offered them a chance to put their opponent on the verge of elimination, but they couldn’t pull the trigger. They dropped Game 5, and Game 6 became the series finale.

It happened in 2022 when the Wild took a 2-1 lead over the St. Louis Blues only to get deleted in the next three games, including a Game 5 loss in St. Paul. It happened again in the following year when they took a 2-1 win over the Dallas Stars, and two bad Foligno penalties played a crucial role in dropping Games 4 and 5 before Dallas eliminated them in Game 6.

Think of each game like a card from the dealer. With each card, we learn more information, which plays a role in the outcome of the hand (or, in this case, a seven-game playoff series).

For example, can John Hynes keep riding his top line to spark the offense? Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy are playing out of their minds with nine combined points over the first two games. But both players are over 40 minutes of ice time (41:52 for Kaprizov, 43:21 for Boldy), and Joel Eriksson Ek isn’t far behind (40:20).

By comparison, Mark Stone leads Vegas forwards with 34:33 on ice while Jack Eichel (33:46) is the only forward with more than 32 minutes of ice time. Does the nearly 10 minutes between the two groups of forward matter? Or will a Wild team that has battled injuries all year long succumb to the grind?

Filip Gustavsson has also played well, with a .914 save percentage over his first two games and stopping 30 of 32 shots in the win on Tuesday night. His save percentage is identical to the mark he posted in 58 games during the regular season. However, that workload is a career high, and he could be another player who tires out as the series drags on.

How do the Wild handle the referees? The officials have only called four total penalties in the first two games, with each team getting a pair of power-play opportunities. A big storyline is how Foligno, Hartman, and the rest of the team have handled the missed calls. But what happens if the refs continue to have a loose whistle?

Is Hartman going to indifferently skate away after taking a cross-check to the face? Or will the player who earned a ten-game suspension (appealed to eight games) for delivering a DDT to Tim Stützle in Ottawa going to show up? Is Foligno going to look like the force he’s been for two games or is he going to meltdown like he did in the Dallas series at the sound of “Refs you suck!”

The Wild also haven’t been great at home. Minnesota’s home record is 22-17-2 this season, and Vegas earned a 4-1 victory in St. Paul on Jan. 12. Can the sounds of Sweet Caroline and some suburban dude whipping his shirt around to Bon Jovi fix this? Or will the Wild play with the same malaise they’ve played with in front of their home fans all season?

The good news is that the Wild have a pretty good hand. Most of the team that got off to a hot start is currently on the ice, and they are in a good position, heading back to St. Paul with the series tied at 1-1. But there’s still a lot to be learned, and if Minnesota is dealt the wrong cards, they could be heading back to the ATM to fix their problems this summer.