The Wild Need Everything To Go Right To Contend Next Year

With the draft and the early stages of free agency in the rearview mirror, most teams have done their most pressing business of the offseason. 

However, the Minnesota Wild still must resolve the Marco Rossi situation. Otherwise, they'll enter the season primarily as currently constructed. When most teams are fairly solidified, it’s time for the “too early predictions” part of the summer, where we speculate wildly about how teams will do in the upcoming campaign. 

The Athletic recently got in on that fun when they posted their way-too-early predictions for the 2025-26 NHL season. One of the categories the staff forecasted included dark horse Cup contenders, defined as a projected middle-of-the-pack team with a chance to make a run. 

Minnesota garnered significant interest in that category, ranking as the second-most popular pick.

(Source: The Athletic)

Jesse Granger, a staff writer who covers the Vegas Golden Knights, justified that pick.

“They looked like one of the better teams in the West before the injuries last season, and gave the Golden Knights a good run in the first round despite just getting guys back into the lineup,” he wrote. “With several key players in contract years, I feel like this could be the best Wild team we’ve seen in some time.”

It’s exciting to think of the Wild as a team with the potential to challenge for a Stanley Cup, but how realistic is that outlook? Minnesota has some intriguing pieces, but there are also numerous questions throughout the lineup. 

Overall, the Wild appear to be an organization willing to take calculated risks in crucial roster decisions. All of those gambles must pay off to fulfill that cup-contending potential.

Can the Wild replicate their hot start from last season?

First, let’s examine what got them off to their hot start last season. The team played great defense and got contributions from throughout the lineup. Still, Filip Gustavsson and Kirill Kaprizov were the two most crucial contributors.

The pair was in early contention for the Vezina Trophy and MVP, respectively. Any team that has an MVP-level skater and one of the best goaltenders in the league is going to win a lot of games. 

Kirill Kaprizov is a superstar, and Minnesota can expect him to put in similar contributions if he stays healthy. 

Gustavsson is a solid goaltender, but it’s unrealistic to expect him to be as good as he was through the middle of December last season. When the Wild were leading the league in the standings, Gustavsson was in the top five in the NHL in goals saved above expected, save percentage, and goals against average.

(Source: Moneypuck)

Gustavsson’s goals saved above expected per 60 was the highest of his career and far exceeded his average season (.261 goals saved above expected per 60) since joining Minnesota. 

Gustavsson has to be that good again if the team is to return to contention. Beyond Gustavsson, Minnesota’s depth in net hinges on Jesper Wallstedt.

Wallstedt is a highly touted prospect, but he struggled last year, with a .879 save percentage in Iowa. The Swedish goaltender has all the tools to bounce back, but having him as their primary backup is another gamble the Wild will take this season. 

Adding Tarasenko and Sturm must pan out

The team will also hope some of their wagers work out in their forward group. Most notably, the acquisitions of Vladimir Tarasenko and Nico Sturm will be vital to Minnesota’s season.

Minnesota struck out on bringing in a true difference-maker in free agency or via trade this offseason and settled for some minor roster upgrades. They brought in Tarasenko to address depth scoring, but there’s some concern about whether he can still provide that. 

Tarasenko had his worst professional season last year, producing 33 points last year for the Detroit Red Wings. That result continued a general trend of his career, where his numbers have continued to fall from his all-star height in St. Louis. The Wild will likely slot him into their top-six group, and he’ll have to produce much more than 33 points to stay there. 

While Tarasenko signed on to bolster the offense, the Wild brought back Nico Sturm to shore up the team’s defense. The faceoff specialist (56.5 career win percentage) should help Minnesota’s cause in the dot and play a crucial role on the penalty kill. However, the penalty kill requires significant improvement. 

The Wild must kill penalties

Minnesota killed penalties at a 72.4% rate last year, the third-worst in the league. Minnesota doesn’t have to vault itself into the upper echelon of penalty-kill units, but they have to be better than that. The 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins are the last team to win the Stanley Cup with a bottom-10 PK unit. 

Being at least serviceable on special teams is a necessity, and the Wild must hope that Nico Sturm can galvanize that. 

Minnesota also requires key contributions this year from relatively unproven players. As mentioned, Wallstedt has to blossom into a competent NHL goaltender this season. The Wild also needs development from some key prospects. 

Zeev Buium, Danila Yurov, David Jiricek, and Liam Ohgren should all see some action this year in Minnesota with varying degrees of workload. They’re all talented players and Scott Wheeler recently included them in his top 100 drafted prospects list, but they’re also inexperienced. 

Michael Russo projects all four of those players to have roster spots. The quartet possesses a combined 40 NHL games to their name. It’s exciting that some of the Wild’s best prospects will finally get a chance to see the ice in St. Paul, but what if they aren’t ready immediately?

The Wild’s defense needs to be stable, given that they’ll start the season with Jonas Brodin injured. The Wild will be going out on a limb that both Jiricek and Buium will adjust to the NHL quickly.

The stars must align for the Wild to contend

All of those issues could be acceptable on their own. Every team in the NHL has areas of the roster where they need some bounces to go their way. However, the Wild has uncertainty across the organization. 

If everything goes their way, could they contend? Absolutely, but let’s recap.

Kirill Kaprizov and Filip Gustavsson must be at the top of the league again. Vladimir Tarasenko needs to turn around his downward points-scoring trend and be a contributing top-six forward. 

At the same time, Nico Sturm has to play a significant role in improving a dismal penalty kill unit. Four prospects with relatively little NHL experience must adjust to the NHL and make an immediate impact. 

All that has to go right while the Wild stay healthy, which has proven difficult over the last several years, especially for key players like Jared Spurgeon, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Jonas Brodin.

Minnesota's potential path to contention is clear but treacherous. There will be a lot of dice-rolling for Bill Guerin and Co. in 2025-26.