By Neil Urbanski -
When I refreshed my web browser this morning and saw Michael Russo’s report that Joel Eriksson Ek has joined Kirill Kaprizov in the dreaded purgatory that is the Minnesota Wild’s injured reserve list these days, a surprising thought occurred to me.
The Wild have nothing to worry about.
Make no mistake; the Wild are a better team with a healthy Ek and Kaprizov. The only way the team has a chance of winning their first playoff round since 2015 is with those two leading the charge. But the NHL regular season is a marathon, not a sprint, and you don’t even have to finish first to win the race.
At this stage of the season, the Colorado Avalanche are the only team in the Wild’s rearview mirror that poses a legitimate threat to a playoff position, and they make for a pretty comforting sight. Because this year, for the first time in a while, the Avs aren’t much of a threat, and all the sprinting the Wild did early on in the marathon makes them even less of one.
The Wild were on pace for 103.6 points in the standings entering Tuesday night’s game against the Detroit Red Wings. Meanwhile, the Avalanche were playing at a 94.5-point pace, which puts Minnesota comfortably in 3rd place in the Central Division, with the Avalanche holding the first Wild Card position.
That means that over the final quarter of the season, Colorado has to make up significant ground on the Wild to pass them in the standings. If Minnesota struggles down the stretch and goes 11-11-3 (25 points) in their remaining 25 games, the Avalanche would still have to go 14-8-1 (29 points) in their remaining 23 games to pass the Wild.
All it takes is one glance at the Avalanche’s most recent line combinations on Daily Faceoff to realize they probably aren’t capable of such a run.
Wild fans have seen enough of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar to know that those two world-class players can win a game on their own on any night. Still, as this year has shown, that doesn’t make the Avalanche capable of the type of dominance that they’d need to find to catch Minnesota.
After trading away Mikko Rantanen last month in a stunning deal that brought back Martin Necas and Jack Drury, the Avalanche’s new top line of MacKinnon, flanked by Necas and the do-everything Artturi Lehkonen (who is Colorado's version of Eriksson Ek) has outperformed its previous iteration. Makar and defensive partner Devon Toews are so effective together that the duo also anchored Canada’s defense corps at the recent 4 Nations tournament.
That gives the Avs a top of the lineup that can compete with anyone in the NHL. However, Colorado’s lineup quality takes a precipitous decline after that, even with mercurial winger Valeri Nichushkin set to return soon.
The team’s No. 2 center, Minnesota’s own (and admitted favorite of this writer) Casey Mittelstadt, is in the middle of a nightmarish season that has his name squarely on trade boards. His line with Jonathan Drouin and Juuso Parssinen has struggled to produce all season while getting caved in defensively.
Colorado’s third line is a solid trio. Drury, Miles Wood, and Ross Colton play with speed and tenacity. However, none of them are major offensive contributors capable of driving the Avalanche consistently.
Conversely, the Wild’s top line of Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy, and Mats Zuccarello isn’t as good as Colorado’s, but it still has outscored opponents 14-9 this season. If they can maintain that production, the line might be dominant enough to earn a coveted nickname (the 3M Line, anyone?).
While a second line of Frederick Gaudreau, Marcus Johansson, and the revelation, Vinnie Hinistroza, isn’t going to scare anyone from an offensive standpoint, Johansson and Hinistroza have been reliable defensively.
Both have favorable expected goal rates. The Athletic’s player cards show Johannson in the 78th percentile defensively among forwards, enough to elevate his market value to $3 million, representing a surplus over his actual salary of $2 million despite his negative offensive output. Wild fans have seen enough of the useful Gaudreau over the years to know that the versatile forward can provide modest production in any role on both ends of the ice.
It will spell trouble if the Wild enters the playoffs with that second line. But for a team that just needs to tread water until its star players can return, it will suffice in the short term so long as the top line continues to produce and the team’s elite defensive corps can continue to shut down the league’s top players.
The Wild’s current third line features a physically imposing Marcus Foligno, who is amid an elite defensive season, along with speedy young guns Marat Khusnutdinov and Liam Ohgren, who have demonstrated the ability to hound pucks in both zones. Ohgren, a former first-round pick, has also shown some offensive flashes. Mixing in a resurgent Yakov Trenin and currently suspended Ryan Hartman makes Minnesota a four-line team that is difficult to play against most nights.
And that’s all it will take for the team to make the playoffs this year because the Avalanche may be a rival, but they’re not a threat. If the Wild want to go anywhere once they get to the playoffs, they’ll need their star forwards. But for now, with Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov on the shelf, Wild fans have nothing to worry about.
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