By Chris Schad -
When the season began, the Minnesota Wild dreamt of the situation they’re in right now. Coming off missing the playoffs for the third time in the past 12 seasons, the Wild are eight points ahead of the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference and look like a virtual lock to return to the playoffs this spring.
A team like this usually catches Bill Guerin's attention, whose history of deadline deals suggests that he will attempt to add to this roster to make a Stanley Cup run. But while the Wild have played well, they are not a team worth investing in at this year’s trade deadline.
That may seem preposterous to the Wild's loyal fans. Minnesota has 14 of their final 24 games at home, including a seven-game homestand next month. They’re enjoying breakout seasons from Jake Middleton and Marco Rossi. Matt Boldy and Brock Faber are coming off strong performances at the 4 Nations Tournament, and Joel Eriksson Ek and Kirill Kaprizov will eventually return from injury.
But a deeper look at the Wild shows this team may have too many flaws to fix with a deadline deal.
The most glaring problem is that Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov are injured. Kaprizov was having a Hart Trophy season before he suffered a groin injury after the Christmas break. After recording 50 points in his first 34 games, Kaprizov has played in three games since. Guerin admitted he has no idea when the Russian star will return from this injury. By the time he does, he may not have enough time to get into game shape for a playoff series.
Take the 2022-23 season as an example. Kaprizov was injured in a March 6 win over the Winnipeg Jets and missed over a month with a groin injury. He returned for the final two games of the regular season but wasn’t the same explosive player, recording only one goal in Game 1 of a six-game playoff series loss to the Dallas Stars.
There's a similar cloud of secrecy surrounding Eriksson Ek’s injury. Few players on this roster have Eriksson Ek’s toughness, but it may have been to his detriment when he went to play for Sweden in the 4 Nations Tournament. You can’t blame him for wanting to play for his country. However, it may have been costly if he initially suffered his lower-body injury during the tournament.
The combination of these two injuries has Wild fans firing up the trade machine. But even if the Wild pull off a blockbuster for Brock Nelson, Brock Boeser, or any other Minnesotan available via trade, no one can replace Eriksson Ek or Kaprizov. More realistically, they may not be able to help a flawed team.
For starters, the Wild’s penalty kill isn’t just bad. It’s historically bad. The Wild’s 71.4% penalty kill rate this season is the 10th lowest in NHL history since the league started keeping track during the 1977-78 season. The New York Islanders (70.2%) and the Detroit Red Wings (69.6%) have lower percentages this season. However, neither team will likely make the playoffs, making the Wild’s problem more glaring.
Elite goaltending is a way to fix that, but the Wild haven’t gotten that either. Filip Gustavsson started the year hot with a 13-4-3 record and a .931 save percentage but is 9-8 with a .895 save percentage over his last 18 starts. The struggles have worsened recently: Gustavsson has a 4-6 record with a .886 save percentage.
If the Wild were the offensive team they could be with Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek in the lineup, this wouldn’t be an issue. However, as Tuesday’s loss to the Detroit Red Wings showed, this team has no margin for error. Gustavsson only faced 16 shots but allowed three goals in a 3-2 loss. If Gustavsson can’t find a suitable level of play, it creates another challenge unless they want to try and get one last playoff run out of Marc-Andre Fleury.
Even then, there’s still the temptation to go all in blindly. The Wild were legitimate Stanley Cup contenders when Kaprizov went down. If they can get him back, they can make a run. But can Nelson, who is part of another historically bad penalty kill, make a difference until he gets back? And would it be worth acquiring Dylan Cozens from the Buffalo Sabers to replace Eriksson Ek and to hedge against Rossi not re-signing next season?
There’s also a history of playoff failures with this core. They blew a 2-1 lead in the 2023 series against the Stars and a 2022 series against the St. Louis Blues. As much as we want Boldy to pop up in a series like this, he hasn’t done it yet, with just four points (1 G, 3 A) in 12 career playoff games. Then there were Marcus Foligno's back-to-back meltdown with a late Game 4 penalty and a Game 5 ejection during the playoff series with the Stars.
Then there's the whole playing-at-home thing, where the Wild have mysteriously posted a 13-13-1 record in St. Paul this season.
Minnesota will get the chance to turn it around. Still, is it worth making a seismic move, especially when the Wild already traded their first-round pick for David Jiricek? Even then, the first names teams will ask for in a trade are Zeev Buium and Danila Yurov, who the Wild aren’t trading.
Still, the chances are high that Guerin will do something to improve this team because they’ve earned that right. But you will be disappointed if you’re hoping for a massive move that magically fixes the Wild.
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