The Wild Are Bouncing Back From Their Worst-Case Scenario

It’s been 130 days since the Minnesota Wild promoted general manager Bill Guerin to president of hockey operations. While the move was more symbolic than anything, it represented a trust that owner Craig Leipold had in Guerin and his vision for the Wild’s future. 

The Wild are coming off a season where they were 11th in the NHL with 103 points. Kirill Kaprizov had just scored 40 goals, and Matt Boldy had scored 31 goals as a 21-year-old. The team appeared to have robbed the Ottawa Senators in their trade for Swedish goaltender Filip Gustavsson. The team qualified for the playoffs but could not make it out of the first round again, falling to the Dallas Stars in six games. 

Overall, the team’s outlook was still positive. The Wild had almost all of the same team back and a large prospect pool developing for future seasons. However, the team was getting older, and Minnesota’s dead cap jumped to almost $15 million annually. With the league-imposed cap restrictions, Guerin couldn’t do much last offseason. Guerin let many of his unrestricted free agents walk, and he had already locked Marcus Johnasson and Freddy Gaudreau into extensions. Guerin could take his promotion and run it back with the same team that found success recently. 

And that’s what Guerin did, except for one little caveat. Since the day the Wild promoted Guerin, the former NHLer has signed a trio of veterans to multi-year extensions. Guerin signed Ryan Hartman, Marcus Foligno, and Mats Zuccarello to new contracts in the offseason. Guerin chose to double down on a core of veterans in a league that favors youth and skill, where roster flexibility and cap space are of the utmost importance. The same core of veterans who had shown signs of regression and failed to deliver in the playoffs.  

Regardless of that decision, the team was still returning with the same coach, forwards, defenseman, and guys between the pipes. They’d be at least competitive, right? 

Welp.

It seems that anything and everything that could have gone wrong has. All of the things that were uncertain entering have gone wrong. 

Will Gustavsson follow up his breakout year with a consistent season? Nope. 

Gustavsson had been pretty good since his and the Wild’s time in Sweden. But before that, oh boy. Gus was sixth worst in the league in GSAx, allowing 3.69 more goals than expected. The Swede's recent play inspires confidence that he can get back on track, but his play early in the season left much to be desired. 

Will Marc-Andre Fleury still be able to be a solid goaltender at his advanced age? Nope. 

In a similar vein to Gustavsson, Fleury has been inconsistent. Fleury has been the 5th worst goalie in the NHL in GSAx this year, allowing 6.13 more goals than expected. The 20-year NHL veteran still flashes moments of awe occasionally, but this has been a disastrous season for the future Hall of Famer. 

Will JoJo perform like he did at the end of last season? Nope.

Johansson has been underwhelming so far this season for a player who was so electric at the end of last year. He got power play time in his second stint with the Wild while playing in the top six all year with talented players like Boldy and Eriksson Ek. Johansson has only one goal and eight points in 21 games for the Wild this season. That’s a far cry from his point-per-game production at the end of last season. 

Will Hartman find success if he’s not playing with Kaprizov and Zuccarello? Nope.

If you take out that one five-point game early in the year when Hartman was playing with Kaprizov and Zuccarello, Hartman has only six points in 17 games. That can’t be the production Bill Guerin had in mind when he re-signed the veteran forward to a $12 million contract. Hartman has failed to produce in other roles down the lineup. 

Will Foligno get back to his old ways and be forced as a power forward? Nope.

Foligno is having a better year than he did last season. But he’s still not the power forward the Wild just signed him to be. Foligno only has two goals and nine points through 21 games.

Will Freddy show his value in the first year of his five-year deal? Nope.

Oh boy, Freddy Gaudreau has been dreadful. The 30-year-old has only two points through 11 games while dealing with injuries. Gaudreau has struggled in the first year of his five-year extension. Gaudreau is last on the team in expected goals while also having the highest expected goals against on the team with 4.17. He isn’t the defensively responsible player he typically is. Hopefully, for Gaudreau and the Wild’s sake, Fred can get healthy and return to being an effective two-way player. 

Will Jake Middleton be the same player without Spurgeon? Nope.

Middleton has been lost without his defense partner for almost all of last season. Opponents were exposing the big-bodied defenseman without Spurgeon by his side. Middleton was the third-worst defenseman in the NHL in terms of goals against per game, with an astonishing 6.84 goals against per hour. Middleton recently reunited with the Wild captain and got back on track, but it was really ugly before Spurgeon got back. 

There are also some things that nobody was worried about. 

Boldy has struggled mightily since his return from an upper-body injury. The 22-year-old from Boston has struggled to get on the board, and we’ve seen his frustrations play out in the form of undisciplined play. Boldy has only had one goal since his return but leads the team in minor penalties taken. Boldy’s breakaway goal looked like it offered some relief in a tough season. Hopefully, Boldy can return to the offensive dominance we’ve been accustomed to seeing with a new coach. 

Kaprizov has also not been his usual self. The rumors of the superstar’s injury are looking increasingly more truthful. Whether Kaprizov is playing through a serious or minor injury, the Russian has not been his usual self. He is still second on the team with 20 points in 21 games, but with only two even-strength goals, he’s not been the same player. 

The only real bright spots on this team are in their pair of rookies. Brock Faber and Marco Rossi have been terrific so far at the start of this season. Rossi is fifth in the NHL among rookies in points while being tied for second in goals. Rossi’s six goals and six assists also put him fourth in scoring on the Wild. 

The Austrian is putting it together in his first full season with the big club. Faber is also here to stay. The Maple Grove native has been so good for the Wild that both coaches have trusted him with top pairing minutes alongside Jonas Brodin. The 21-year-old defenseman is also chipping in an ounce of offense with eight points through 21 contests. Both young players have been a boon for a struggling team. 

All of this resulted in a team trending to be in the Macklin Celebrini sweepstakes. The Wild sat at 30th in the NHL in points while having the league’s worst penalty kill. A lackluster effort against the Detroit Red Wings in a 4-1 loss led to Dean Evason’s firing last Monday. 

Guerin has said that Evason was trying to coach with one hand behind his back due to the cap constraints from the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts. With the trio of extensions this summer and the preemptive extensions of players like Johansson, Gaudreau, Goligoski, and Merrill, Guerin was forcing Evason to deal with the constraints of a roster with no flexibility. Guerin placed his bets on his guys, and they’ve all failed to hit through the first quarter of this season. While Evason coached with one hand behind his back in the past few seasons, this season, Guerin made Evason do it with two. 

While the Wild predictably bounced back with two wins and came alive in the first games under new head coach John Hynes, things should never have gotten so bad that they had to fire Evason. The new coach's mojo is flowing for the team, but is it enough to make a difference? 

Time to find out.

All stats and data via HockeyDB, CapFriendly, and Evolving Hockey unless otherwise noted.