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  • The Wild Are A Big Tree That Falls Hard


    Image courtesy of Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images
    Tom Schreier

     

    The Minnesota Wild were feeling good about themselves as they rolled into Ottawa. They had shut out the Montreal Canadiens, 4-0, giving Marc-André Fleury a heartwarming victory in his final homecoming. The Wild were a league-best 20-5-3 on the road and about to face the 28-20-4 Ottawa Senators, who haven’t made the playoffs since the 2016-17 season. 

    “We’re just rolling right now,” said Marcus Foligno, “and it’s fun to see.”

    John Hynes had called them out after the former Arizona Coyotes clubbed them 4-0 at home, and they didn’t respond when Rasmus Andersson punched Fleury in the Calgary Flames’ 5-4 win in St. Paul. The Utah Hockey Club and Calgary are non-playoff teams, but the Wild are 11-12-1 at the Xcel Energy Center’s unfriendly confines. 

    They had meaningful conversations on the road, which drove winning in Chicago, Toronto, and Montreal. 

    “A few things were said,” offered Filip Gustavsson. “We had a meeting before (and after) the Calgary game, and we said some things. … We take it to heart when we get called out, and we just went back into the Chicago game to show the coaching staff that we’re willing to do it.”

    However, the Wild were short on words after losing 6-0 in Ottawa.

    “It’s unacceptable start to finish,” said Brock Faber. “We’re better than that. We have more pride than that.”

    “Embarrassing,” added Mats Zuccarello. “Outworked. Outskilled. Terrible.”

    “I don’t want to really comment on it right now,” Hynes said when a reporter asked how they move past the game.

    The 2024-25 Wild are a big tree that falls hard.

    They only suffered one regulation loss in their first 11 games, then the Los Angeles Kings beat them 5-1. The Kings also beat them 4-1 on the road. 

    Minnesota has played last year’s Stanley Cup finalists. The Florida Panthers beat them 6-1, and the Edmonton Oilers won one of their matchups 7-1.

    The Wild’s Central Division opponents also have blown them out. The Winnipeg Jets have beaten them 4-1 and 5-0. The Colorado Avalanche beat them 6-1 after Minnesota had won six of seven games. The Wild also gift-wrapped the Nashville Predators a 6-2 victory on January 18.

    As surprising as Minnesota’s loss in Ottawa was on Saturday, it wasn’t unprecedented. Forty-eight hours after the shorthanded Wild beat the Dallas Stars 3-2 in overtime, the Senators beat them 3-1. Ottawa has improved this year, but they’re still a middle-of-the-pack Eastern Conference team.

    Injuries have been a factor in Minnesota’s inconsistency this season. Still, they alone aren’t the reason the Wild have swayed in the wind and occasionally topple. Kirill Kaprizov and Jared Spurgeon were healthy for the 4-0 loss to Utah. 

    The Wild are a tree with lush leaves, a flimsy trunk, and no roots. 

    From the forest canopy, we see the fall colors. Kaprizov, Brock Faber, Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, Jonas Brodin, and Jared Spurgeon are a strong core. Occasionally, they’ve been missing some leaves this year. Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, Brodin, and Spurgeon have periodically been out with injuries. Still, the tree looks healthy at the top.

    However, the trunk consists of older, lumbering players. Bill Guerin was a 6-foot-2, 220-pound physical forward who played better as he aged. He has built the Wild in his image, complementing his stars with large players on the wrong side of 30. As a result, the trunk is heavy and rotting. 

    Many of the veterans he signed have regressed. On Saturday, the officials assessed Ryan Hartman with a match penalty, and he’s due for a lengthy suspension. He’s in the first year of a three-year, $12 million extension the Wild signed him to last offseason.

    “We’ll see what the league has to do about that,” Foligno said in response. “There’s going to be bigger battles in the playoffs, so I don’t know if that’s too serious.”

    If I’m reading that right, Foligno isn’t sure how the league will punish Hartman. However, he feels there will be “bigger battles in the playoffs,” either meaning games against better teams or more violent actions. If it’s the latter, that’s concerning coming from a 33-year-old player on a four-year extension whose reckless play hurt the Wild the last time they were in the postseason.

    Minnesota’s trunk may be fraying, but the roots may be more concerning. Rossi has become a No. 1 center despite the Wild’s odd handling of his development. They traded for David Jiříček in December, and he played well in late January. However, he’s spent most of his time in Des Moines. Most concerningly, Jesper Wallstedt has a 0.871 save percentage on an Iowa Wild team that has won 36% of its games.

    The question with the Wild shouldn’t be how they fell from competing with Winnipeg for the Central Division title on Thanksgiving to hovering near a negative point differential after getting blown out so many times. Instead, it should be why they haven’t built a better core around a team with star power.

    Minnesota’s occasional falls shouldn’t be a surprise. They’re inevitable.

     

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    Getting that out of my system: the Wild still have a chance for a 4-1 road trip.  Consistency is probably an issue, but you could say that about every team except Winnipeg and Washington at this point.  There are a LOT of teams that are still trailing the Wild after all the shit they've dealt with.

    They were completely out of it this time last year.  I'm still banking on more internal improvement next season.  Just have to wait for those "rotten limbs" to fall off the tree.

    Who knows, one of those (Hartman) might fall off on its own.

     

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    Surprisingly, The Athletic's Scott Wheeler, in reverse order of last to first, has gotten to team #6 in his prospect rankings without mentioning the Wild, so he apparently believes they are top 5 in their prospect pool. Definitely anxious to read what he has to say on the Wild when it's released later this week.

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    IMO BG has been building a team under a mandate from OCL. Management answers to the owner. Taking into consideration “We gotta make the playoffs” driven priority, having resigned the Vets to some degree then makes sense. It’s a bit of a stretch to say BG is somehow so uninformed as to believe he is adding players like “himself” blindly. Some fit that mold but others don’t. I think the Wild are adding players that want to win. (Mostly). I’m waiting to see what kind of moves they make going into next season. 

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    Sad but true. We let Nyquist walk because we wanted Hartman. The truth is the Wild are the same old middle of the pack team they have always been. The only difference is Kirill Kaprizov elevating them to another level.  What did BG have to do with KK. Almost nothing. Hopefully BG can learn from his mistakes.

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    1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Yawn, old veteran contracts ruining the team: Guerin's fault...

    I agree.  Another article about the contracts after a bad loss.  Even though we have managed 6 points so far on the road trip where I was hoping to get 5 in a best case scenario and I am an eternal optimist.

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    The Wild could use a guy like Tom Wilson " minus the bad hits "    6-4-  220  I think  atleast 45-65% of his point production comes via his size  ,   Even if he never fights it would help a team like the wild to have a guy like that  .   "minus the bad hits unnecessary roughing "

     

     

     
    GP G A PTS +/- PIM SOG SPCT PPG PPA SHG SHA GWG TOI/G PROD
    82 3 7 10 1 151 0 4.8 1 0 0 0 0 7:56 65:05
    67 4 13 17 -1 172 0 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 10:56 43:06
    82 7 16 23 3 163 0 7.1 0 1 0 1 1 12:54 46:02
    82 7 12 19 9 133 0 7.4 0 0 0 0 0 12:55 55:46
    78 14 21 35 10 187 0 11.4 0 1 1 0 1 15:59 35:37
    63 22 18 40 11 128 0 16.9 3 2 2 0 2 18:08 28:34
    68 21 23 44 -3 93 0 13.6 5 2 1 1 5 18:16 28:14
    47 13 20 33 1 96 0 15.7 4 4 1 0 4 16:32 23:33
    78 24 28 52 13 98 0 15.9 4 6 2 1 5 18:34 27:52
    33 13 9 22 -13 78 0 15.9 4 1 0 0 1 17:37 26:25
    74 18 17 35 -19 133 0 10.7 5 5 2 0 3 18:06 38:16
    52 21 17 38 12 50 0 17.9 9 3 0 1 3 18:49 25:45
    806 167 201 368 24 1482 0 12.4 35 25 9 4 25 15:12 444:20
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    I have to agree with the analogy Tom puts forth here. It's a good one, but one that needs to be explained a bit further. Tom has taken some depth readings and he has seen a lack of root structure. Oh, there's some roots, but not those big deep ones. They were extracted, 2 of them, 5 years ago. The aging vets we now have do not have that much of a root structure because they are placeholders, not deep players with a history, like a Koivu. 

    Now, our root structure consists of players like Eriksson Ek, probably the deepest root, Kaprizov, Boldy, Faber. Brodin and Spurgeon also are deep roots but not so strong anymore. But, your Hartmans, Trenins and those guys just don't have those deep roots. Even Foligno's just isn't that deep, though he's been here a long while. 

    This happens with turnover. This happens with rebuilding. When we bought out Suter and Parise, let Koivu head to free agency/retirement, and sent Staal packing, we got rid of our deep roots. It's time for new ones. If Kaprizov resigns, he will be one of our deepest roots. Getting Rossi bridged and then long termed may be another one. Buium, Yurov, The Wall, Jiricek should all lay down some deep roots but that takes time. 

    Quote

    Ottawa has improved this year, but they’re still a middle-of-the-pack Eastern Conference team.

    One of the best indicators of a playoff team is simply team +/-. I can't remember where we were in mid December, but right now we're a +3. This suggests that we are the 7th best team in our conference. Calgary and Vancouver are behind us with -11 and -16. 

    The Ottawa team that just waxed us was a +2 going into that game. That was good enough for 7th place in the East. They didn't have a very good start to the season, but lately they have been playing like beasts in the East. Sometimes it doesn't matter who you play, it's when you play them. Hopefully we catch Boston on a downswing. They are currently a -26.

    37 minutes ago, Patrick said:

    We let Nyquist walk because we wanted Hartman.

    This is a completely false statement, sorry Patrick. Hartman had 1 more year left on his deal. We chose Johansson instead of Nyquist. I actually believe we could only afford a $2m contract and both were offered the same deal, 1st one to take it got it. I have no evidence of this. Nyquist bet on himself and was worth probably more than what he got. 

    Again, I'm not agreeing with the resigning of Hartman, I think we should have let him walk, but I also think he had a handshake deal with Guerin, that if he performed well at $1.8m where we needed value contracts, Guerin promised to take care of him. While most do not see value in honoring those types of things, I do. It makes you the type of GM that players can play for. These types of things get talked about around the league, and players know which GMs they can trust and which ones they can't. 

    But like some have suggested, I do think that this is the last year we have Hartman in the lineup. I thought we might bet on a bounce back for next season, but after the Stutzle incident, I have to wonder if the expiration date is flashing.

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    21 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    I agree.  Another article about the contracts after a bad loss.  Even though we have managed 6 points so far on the road trip where I was hoping to get 5 in a best case scenario and I am an eternal optimist.

    I thought the article was more about when we lose, we lose big. When we win, we don't usually win so big. The underlying theme of deep roots, though, really hit me. I don't know that I really mind, so much, getting killed when we lose but winning all the tight ones. 

    Say for instance, we get Colorado in a playoff series. What if the series was tied at 3 and our wins were 2-1OT, 3-2OT, and 4-3. Theirs were 6-1, 5-0, 7-2. What happens in game 7? The ghost of Nino arises!

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