By Tony Abbott -
The Marco Rossi Discourse has officially detached itself from reality.
We just saw the Florida Panthers build a dynasty on a foundation rehabilitating former top-10 picks that were unhappy, coming off a down year, or both. Sam Reinhart (No. 2 overall in 2014), Seth Jones (No. 4 in 2013), Sam Bennett (No. 4 in 2014), and Matthew Tkachuk (No. 6 in 2016). They made bets -- sometimes massive bets -- on top talent and hoped their organization would figure it out.
This is a copycat league, as they say. Yet, as the Minnesota Wild's top-six center is coming off a career-high 60-point season at the age of 23, no one seems to want him particularly badly. Least of all, as much as GM Bill Guerin has tried to downplay it, the historically center-starved Wild, who've been rumored to be looking at trading him for the last two summers. Or three, since he might be on the move this week.
Whether trying to low-ball Guerin on a player he doesn't seem particularly committed to, similarly worried about his size, or scared off by the fact that the Wild demoted and kept him on the fourth line in the playoffs, teams aren't biting.
The Vancouver Canucks are believed to have only offered the 15th overall pick in tonight's draft for him. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Sabres apparently turned down an offer of Marco Rossi and "another roster player and/or prospects and picks" for JJ Peterka, according to The Athletic's Michael Russo.
Instead, Buffalo flipped Peterka for 25-year-old Michael Kesselring and 23-year-old Josh Doan. Combined, the two players have a career 4.9 Standings Points Above Replacement in 218 games, per Evolving-Hockey. That's just barely more than Rossi had over 82 games last season (4.4 SPAR).
We don't specifically know what was offered alongside Rossi, of course, and Kesselring being a right-shot defenseman does fill a need. Still... what are we doing here? We're living in Bizarro World when it comes to Rossi.
The Athletic's Shayna Goldman, one of the brightest minds in hockey analysis, wrote about the apprehensions teams may have for Rossi:
Issue number two revolves around whether Rossi can drive his own line or is just a passenger to Kirill Kaprizov. ... These two do mesh well together. In 407 five-on-five minutes together this year, the Wild earned a 57 percent expected goal rate and outscored opponents 24-16. Rossi was still above break-even in expected and actual goals without Kaprizov, but wasn’t as in control.
No one on earth is going to suggest that Kaprizov isn't the primary driving force on any line he's on. Kaprizov carries the puck and can do dynamic things with it as a playmaker or shooter. We've seen Kaprizov elevate Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Matt Boldy. It's ludicrous to say that Rossi isn't benefiting from Kaprizov when the two are on the ice together.
Still, that doesn't mean that Rossi can't drive play in his own right. We have a growing amount of evidence that he does drive play.
407 minutes with Kaprizov at 5-on-5 means that Rossi played 815 minutes without Kaprizov. During that time, Rossi still managed to out-score opponents 32-27 (54% goal share) with a 52.8% expected goal share. That includes a long stretch of the season when Kaprizov was injured -- and remember, this was not a good team without Kaprizov.
From Christmas until Kaprizov's permanent return on April 9, the Wild were 29th in goal share (43.5%) and 25th in expected goal share (47.5%). During that time, Rossi was above-water in goal share (54.6%) and expected goal share (51.2%). Among Wild forwards, only Ryan Hartman and the heavily sheltered Vinnie Hinostroza could claim to be above water in both categories.
Rossi's season wasn't a product of playing with a superstar. He consistently made other players better, almost to a person. When you examine what players did with and without Rossi, it's impossible not to notice a pattern.
Minnesota Wild Forwards, 2024-25
With and Without Rossi at 5-on-5
Time On Ice With vs WO: 651 / 407
GF% With vs WO: 56.2 / 41.0
xGF% With vs WO: 52.7 / 44.1
Matt Boldy
TOI With vs WO: 559 / 695
GF% With vs WO: 57.2 / 48.4
xGF% With vs WO: 52.0 / 53.7
Kirill Kaprizov
TOI With vs WO: 408 / 317
GF% With vs WO: 60.4 / 57.6
xGF% With vs WO: 57.4 / 52.7
TOI With vs WO: 191 / 831
GF% With vs WO: 62.4 / 42.6
xGF% With vs WO: 57.5 / 46.6
TOI With vs WO: 185 / 755
GF% With vs WO: 57.5 / 53.1
xGF% With vs WO: 63.7 / 54.6
Ryan Hartman
TOI With vs WO: 159 / 745
GF% With vs WO: 60.1 / 47.6
xGF% With vs WO: 55.4 / 50.8
That's everyone who played 100-plus 5-on-5 minutes with Rossi last year. The only player who didn't see a bump in both their actual and expected goal share was Boldy, who finished only slightly higher in xGF% without Rossi at center. It's a difficult pattern to deny.
It makes sense, then, that Goldman's article included this graphic, which shows just how strong Rossi's game is at both ends of the ice:
And again, it feels like we're in Bizarro World. How can the Wild doubt his play and the results to this degree? Why are they stubbornly refusing to pay more than $5 million AAV for a player who's asking for $7 million and whose market value is over $8 million? There's a bargain to be had for seven or eight years!
Take it! How is this hard?!
Now it seems like Guerin has not only Galaxy Brained himself on this, but the NHL might be, too. Teams may be waiting for July 1 to snipe Rossi with an offer sheet that Minnesota would be unwilling to match. Still, if a team like Buffalo is passing on Rossi and more in a trade, then maybe the lack of trade interest is real. We'll find out in the coming days.
Whatever the resolution, though, this has been an incredibly bizarre series of events for Rossi. Any other center at his age -- with his production, work ethic, and character -- would never hit the market. And if they did, teams would be lining up to improve their center depth with a talented, goal-scoring, point-producing center.
Here we are, though, with Rossi on the market and teams saying "Pass."
It'd be one thing if Rossi hadn't proven he could hang at the position. But he has! Yet, from what we know today, it's done almost nothing for his stock, inside and outside the organization. We're going past this situation being an irrational farce and heading to the point where we completely break with reality. Whoever is first to come to their senses is going to get a hell of a player on a great deal, and the State of Hockey should be hoping it's Guerin.
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