By Tony Abbott -
In the summer of 2021, all eyes were on Kirill Kaprizov's contract situation. The Calder Trophy winner just completed his first (and only) year of his entry-level contract, putting up 27 goals and 51 points in 55 games. His reward was unprecedented for a player with such little NHL experience, a five-year, $45 million deal that drew the ire of some of the league's biggest-diapered stars.
Was it the best contract that the Minnesota Wild signed that offseason? Perhaps. Kaprizov just hit the 40-goal mark for the third time in that deal's first three seasons. But the pact Minnesota made with Joel Eriksson Ek (eight years, $42 million) might be even more bang for their buck. A No. 1 center in the Ryan O'Reilly mold for a lower cap hit than, say, Andrew Copp? That's working out well for the Wild.
That lesson might be instructive as Minnesota embarks on this offseason with both of their Calder Trophy-caliber rookies, Brock Faber and Marco Rossi, entering the final seasons of their ELCs and thus being eligible for extensions.
Faber is almost assuredly going to break the bank, even with his NHL experience unable to exceed 83 games before this summer. Still, Jake Sanderson signed an eight-year extension worth $64.4 million in September, and Owen Power followed that up a month later with a seven-year, $58.45 million deal of his own. The two top young defensemen had 77 and 87 games under their belts at the time of their signings, respectively.
Meanwhile, Faber's rookie season not only exceeds Sanderson and Power in point totals, but his production isn't just good-for-a-rookie. It's simply good. Ryan Suter, Matt Dumba, and Brent Burns are the only Wild defensemen with more points than Faber's 43. That's right, his 43 points are currently tied with captain Jared Spurgeon's career-high. Faber's cap hit will start with an "8," and that might be a hometown discount. All eyes will be on that contract situation this summer.
It'll be a great day in Minnesota once the Wild ink Faber to a long-term extension. But the value play for the Wild is to try and do another Eriksson Ek-type home run contract with Rossi.
Think about it: When did Minnesota extend Eriksson Ek? Right when he began to deliver on his promise as a first-round pick in 2015. He broke out with 19 goals and 30 points in a COVID-shortened 56-game season. Crucially, Eriksson Ek wasn't negotiating his contract coming off the 26-goal, 49-point season he had the following year or his 23-goal, 61-point campaign of 2022-23.
That's the sweet spot, and Rossi is in that same zone. A bout with myocarditis and a slow NHL start (one point in his first 21 NHL games) cast doubt on his ability to make it at this level. Instead, Rossi put those doubts to bed with a 21-goal, 38-point rookie season.
How much better can he get, seeing as he only turns 23 in September? He's already second on the team with 18 5-on-5 goals, one behind Kaprizov and one ahead of Matt Boldy. His 32 5-on-5 points are third among Wild players, behind Kaprizov and Boldy and one ahead of Eriksson Ek. If he has consistent linemates next season and a more prominent role, can he hit 30 goals next year? How many more assists can he add?
More importantly, why wait to find out before paying him? Minnesota always has the option to kick the can down the road with a shorter-term "bridge deal." The idea with that kind of contract is to squeeze out some cheaper years from a player while dangling the carrot of a bigger payday.
The Wild did that to great effect with Kevin Fiala in 2019, garnering lots of value with a two-year, $6 million deal. Any GM would take 43 goals and 94 points in 114 games for a $3 million cap hit. But when it came time to pay Fiala, they felt they couldn't afford him. Since they got Faber in return for the ensuing trade, it's hard to say it didn't work out. Still, Minnesota's secondary scoring hasn't been the same since.
Maybe the Wild felt that carrot was necessary to motivate Fiala (though he does have two straight 70-point seasons in LA), but that isn't the case for Rossi. It's hard to question the commitment of a kid who'll miss his sister's wedding to do skating drills. Or the drive of a 22-year-old who parks his 5-foot-9 frame in front of the net on a nightly basis. Minnesota can count on Rossi to maximize his potential.
Still, they don't have to pay for that maximized potential if they get ahead of this contract situation the way they did with Eriksson Ek. Rossi doesn't have the clean contract comparables that Faber has in Sanderson and Power, but we can gauge the market by taking a quick look at young centers who've signed long-term extensions with their teams since the summer of 2022.
Josh Norris signed an eight-year, $63.6 million ($7.95M cap hit) extension in July 2022. Norris was 23, coming off a 35-goal, 55-point season. Tim Stützle, the third overall pick in Rossi's 2020 Draft, inked an eight-year, $66.8 million ($8.35M cap hit) deal in September 2022. Stützle was 20, coming off a 22-goal, 58-point sophomore season. Dylan Cozens cashed in during his age-21 season, signing a seven-year, $49.7 million ($7.1M cap hit) contract as he was heading to 31 goals and 68 points.
Rossi doesn't quite have those bonafides, which probably pushes his long-term number somewhere in the $6 million range. Perhaps something in the ballpark of the eight-year, $50 million ($6.5M cap hit) pact two-way center Anthony Cirelli signed in July 2022, right around his 25th birthday.
That might seem like a lot for a player with one full NHL season under his belt. In most cases, though, the sticker shock fades away as the cap rises and the players perform. Rossi is scratching the surface of his potential. If he continues to deliver, that cap hit becomes a bargain quickly.
Even at a seemingly unreasonable $7 million, Rossi would create a cap advantage for Minnesota. With five years remaining on Eriksson Ek's contract, Minnesota would have two top-six centers locked up for a total of $12.25 million for the next five seasons. Anything lower would only add to the bang for the buck of that one-two punch and the money Minnesota could allocate toward the wings or defense.
The starting point with Rossi this summer is with a center who is competing for a Calder Trophy in a year where star rookies like Bedard, Faber, Luke Hughes, Logan Cooley, Adam Fantilli, and Leo Carlsson are making their debuts. It doesn't get any cheaper from here on out. Why wait?
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